Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, April 21, 2008
Commercial Banks Heading for Huge Derivatives Losses- Credit Crisis Turning into Credit Armageddon / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
While most investors are focused on the latest stock market rally, hidden from view is a monumental change that few recognize and fewer understand: Unprecedented amounts of old debts are coming due in America, and many are not getting refinanced.
Even worse, borrowers are going into default, lenders are taking huge losses, and outstanding loans are turning to dust.
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Monday, April 21, 2008
The Next Credit Crisis Disaster Waiting to Happen / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
In the first quarter, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ( GS ) packed another $27 billion worth of illiquid assets onto its balance sheet - a 39% increase that brought the total to $96 billion.
And Goldman wasn't alone. Morgan Stanley ( MS ) reported that these hard-to-value/hard-to-sell assets soared 45%, reaching $32 billion. For Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. ( LEH ), the first-quarter increase was $500 million, bringing its total to $42.5 billion.
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Sunday, April 20, 2008
Stock Markets Continue Rally into Intermediate Short-term Top / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Election years that fall in the 8th year of the Decennial pattern call for consolidation in the early part of the year followed by a strong finish. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in late Summer/early Fall could also play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
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Sunday, April 20, 2008
Global Stock Markets Recieve Earnings Boost Amidst Bearish Sentiment / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
It's Earnings, Stupid! Or so it seemed during the past week as the stock market took its cue from a host of better-than-feared earnings reports, propelling the S&P 500 Index 4.3% higher – a bigger gain than for the entire 2007. And what a swift turnaround it was after the market got “GE'd” and was in sackcloth and ashes by the close of the previous week!Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Stock Market Trading Amid Travesty- Facts are Stubborn Things Part III / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
Addressing the Cause and Effect of the Credit Crisis- Facts are Stubborn Things Part I
Central Banks' in Tatters- Facts are Stubborn Things Part II
Nothing new under the sun comes to mind when pondering whether financial markets are truly free. Beyond all related conjecture, it remains a stubborn fact that markets have always behaved in a way to perplex the majority of participants.
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Saturday, April 19, 2008
Stocks Bull and Bear Market Relationships / Stock-Markets / Dow Theory
Obviously, the definitions of Bull and Bear markets differ from person to person. My definition is based on the works of the great Dow theorists, Charles H. Dow, William Peter Hamilton and Robert Rhea. As a result of my study of Dow theory combined with my study of cycles, which are not a part of Dow theory, I have drawn some very obvious conclusions about the nature of Bull and Bear markets.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Stocks Rally Towards Resistance as Money Fly's out of Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
Workers getting fewer hours
The gradual erosion of the paycheck has become a stealth force driving the American economic downturn. Most of the attention has focused on the loss of jobs and the risk of layoffs. But the less-noticeable shrinking of hours and pay for millions of workers around the country appears to be a bigger contributor to the decline, which has already spread from housing and finance to other important areas of the economy.
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Unanimous Bullish Stock Market Patterns / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The chart patterns in the following three scenarios are unanimous: The industrial markets will rise back to (but not yet break above) their previous highs:
The April 18th buy signal on the traditional Point & Figure chart of the Wilshire 5000 is calling for a move to 15,400.
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Friday, April 18, 2008
US Subprime Crisis Bottom, Bullish Stock Market and Gold as New Money / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
I just returned from sunny Calgary where I spoke at the Cambridge Conference (See more details at my Travel Diary here: http://www.goldmau.com/content/diary/08-04-18.php). It is surprising to me how many gold analysts predict the complete of fallout of US housing and how that will crash the stock market, world growth and commodities.
Subprime Securities Firesale finished:
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Friday, April 18, 2008
Government Interventions Tinkering with the Deleveraging Derivatives Monster / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
Staying Alive - The size and frequency of the government's interventions into the markets, especially over the last month, has generated little coverage. Those articles that have addressed this seem to ignore its implications, concluding that the markets will chug along indefinitely. The only real surprise is that these comments have more frequently come from individuals who have written extensively of the morass in our financial system. How is it that so many take such historically profound information in stride? Why does most of the public not recognize the numerous warning signals the real world is giving to prepare for significant changes?Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 18, 2008
US Stocks Surge as Foreigners Buy 'Cheap' US Equities / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
So far, this has been a remarkable session, with the SPY holding nearly all of its gains, while oil gyrates from $113 to $116/bbl., gold plunges $25/ounce (I could cry), and the dollar strengthening for no apparent reason. In any case, investors have decided to buy any and every pullback in the SPY.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Are Corporate Earnings Expectations Too High? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
We are in the middle of the first quarter 2008 earnings season. Since the U.S. is in a recession, it is normal to expect the reported earnings to reflect the slowing economy. However, a number of analysts are forecasting a brief slowdown followed by a robust rebound. Is this realistic and a good basis to make investing decisions?
What History Tells Us
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Thursday, April 17, 2008
Stock Market Mega Trend and the Wolf Wave / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
- Wolf Wave and the Future
- Mega Trend and Micro Stock Market Analysis by Peter Eliades
Introduction
The unfolding economic scenery can only be described as one thing: TUMULTUOUS leading to HUGE OPPORTUNITIES. Inflation in anything which is solid and deflation in everything that is paper, so monetary policy can only address one or the other and fiscal reform (reduction of regulatory, or tax, print and spend policies) is never considered. Volatility is set to expand from today's levels and “Volatility is Opportunity ”. As outlined in the 2008 Outlook (See Tedbits archives at www.TraderView.com ), the Wolf is afoot in the G7 and the consequences to every investable sector will be PROFOUND!
Thursday, April 17, 2008
India One of the Worlds Best Profit Plays for Investors / Stock-Markets / India
The Indian market as measured by the Mumbai Sensex Index is down 22% this year, about 25% below its all-time high reached in January. That's not very surprising: China is down further (about 35%) and most other emerging stock markets have also fallen. Growth in 2008 seems likely to be slower than in 2007 and there are some signs of a credit crunch. Yet India remains one of the world's great growth opportunities and investors at this level may well be getting in on the ground floor of a very major long-term profit play .Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Stock Markets Headed Higher Into Summer / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
So far the HUI turn date of Monday April 13thish was a few days late, but appears to be on course. The XOI and USD index also are playing out according to their respective Elliott Wave patterns. Analysis below discusses what to expect in the S&P over the course of the next few months. One side note, we have implemented all charts on our site going forward to be HTML coded so that a much larger version is available at the click of a mouse.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Commodities Reversing US Dollar Bottoming- Yorba TV Show / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
Here are the topics for tomorrow's television show on www.yorba.tv Thursday at 4:00 pm EDT.
1) It's almost time for the US Dollar to stop its plunge!
As everyone is
aware, the US Dollar has been in a severe decline since 2001. Over that
time it has declined over 41%. The declining dollar helped to pull the
economy out of the 2001 recession by lowering the prices of exports to
foreign countries. But it also caused a lot of pain to consumers by being
the primary cause of the rising cost of fuel. Depressed investor confidence
in the Dollar is causing foreign investors to start selling dollar
denominated assets, which in turn depresses investor confidence even more.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Global Investing Roundups- China Buys 1% of Oil Giant BP / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Wholesale Prices Soar; U.S. Bancorp Sees Earnings Slide; Johnson & Johnson Enjoys 40% Jump in Profit; China Buys 1% of BP for $1.7 Billion; Brazil's Retail Sales Hit Four-Year Record; Crocs Stock Drops; Intel Profit Down; Big Loss for WaMuRead full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Protect Your Wealth from Wall Street Liars / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
Few seem to remember that Wall Street is not a non-profit community driven by altruism or any sense of service. They would gladly cheat you out of your entire life savings if their actions were legal, or at least not prosecuted. In the last two to three years, the lies, deception, misdirection, false reporting, corruption, and grand fraud will be the topic of historical accounts for decades. When returning on my flights from another successful Cambridge House gold conference, this in Calgary Alberta , many thoughts came to mind, jotted down while gazing at the natural beauty made up from cloud blankets with a sun guarding its lot. The sun and clouds care not at all about economic landscapes underneath, even if in turmoil. Whenever travels take me across national borders, nationalism, idealism, culture, and dreams come to mind. It seems pursuit of truth, clarity, and integrity has become negotiable, one and all in the United States . Its people are being stripped of so much. Perhaps this layout will be helpful. Routinely such matters are covered in the Hat Trick Letter reports. Gold & silver continue to do well to protect individuals and their wealth. Banks are no longer safe, an astonishing conclusion. Bonds are not safe, and neither are money market funds!!!Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
New Upleg in Brazil Stock Market ETF / Stock-Markets / Brazil
In general, the EWZ exhibits a VERY constructive intermediate term chart pattern. All of the price action off of the Jan. low at 64.00 represents the start of a new upleg within the existing longer term bull trend that started in 2002 near 5.00. Furthermore, the decline off of the Feb. 28th high at 88.77 to the March 20 low at 72.11 appears to me to be a completed pullback, and the start of a new upleg that projects to retest 88.00-81.00 on the way to 91.00-93.00. Let's notice how much respect the price structure (investors) have exhibited during tests of the sharply rising 200 DMA.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
The S&P 500: Offering Investors Attractive Valuations Or a Bull Trap? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
As the S&P 500 gradually drifts lower in 2008, many analysts and portfolio managers are now saying the index has attractive valuations and are offering investors excellent profit opportunities. But is the S&P 500 really cheap at present levels? And are these recent short-term rallies just a bull trap?Read full article... Read full article...