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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

So Many Things are Not Confirming Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

A lot of things are not “confirming” the stock market’s rally right now.

Standard traders look for “non-confirmations” in the market. They typically plot a fundamental/technical indicator ontop of the S&P 500, demonstrate how the 2 lines have mostly had a strong correlation over the past 2 years, and then demonstrate how the S&P has “diverged” from the indicator recently and how the indicator is not “confirming” the stock market’s rally.

Then, they come to the conclusion that the stock market is going to reverse because “DIVERGENCE!”

In reality, most divergences don’t amount to anything and are not much better than a 50/50 coin toss. These correlations are optical illusions, and work until they don’t.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Wall Street is Chasing Ghosts / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Michael_Pento

Wall Street’s absolute obsession with the soon to be announced most wonderful trade deal with China is mind-boggling. The cheerleaders that haunt main stream financial media don’t even care what kind of deal gets done. They don’t care if it hurts the already faltering condition of China’s economy or even if it does little to improve the chronically massive US trade deficits—just as long as both sides can spin it as a victory and return to the status quo all will be fine.

But let’s look at some facts that contradict this assumption. The problems with China are structural and have very little if anything to do with a trade war. To prove this let’s first look at the main stock market in China called the Shanghai Composite Index. This index peaked at over 5,100 in the summer of 2015. It began last year at 3,550. But today is trading at just 2,720. From its peak in 2015 to the day the trade war began on July 6th of 2018, the index fell by 47%. Therefore, it is silly to blame China’s issues on trade alone. The real issue with China is debt. In 2007 its debt was $7 trillion, and it has skyrocketed to $40 trillion today. It is the most unbalanced and unproductive pile of debt dung the world has ever seen, and it was built in record time by an edict from the communist state.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Why Stock Traders Must Stay Optimistically Cautious Going Forward / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The one interesting facet of the various research posts our team continues to digest is the continued bearish sentiment that exudes from some analysts.  It appears these technical gurus have become married to the concept that global economic issues will crash the US stock market in the near future.  We have to give them some credit though.  We wanted to take a few minutes of your time to try to highlight how and why we believe these technical gurus are making these points so clearly now and why we believe there are multiple catalysts that they are simply failing to comprehend.

Our team of researchers continues to learn from other skilled researchers, clients, and technicians.  Every time we read some news item or someone’s research post, we don’t take the research with a pretense that “these researchers are wrong in their conclusions”.  We start off with the pretense that “maybe these people are highlighting something we missed – let’s investigate it”.  Thus, our quest is never-ending in the search for greater knowledge and practical application of price theory and technical analysis.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 18, 2019

Get ready for the Stock Market Breakout Pattern Setup II / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Get ready for one of the most complicated price pattern setups we’ve seen in 4~5 years.  Within this multi-part article, we’re highlighting many aspects of our predictive modeling solutions, as well as some very clear patterns that we believe, are tell-all investors to prepare for the next big move.  This is the second part of our research, please take a minute to read PART I of this article.

Now for the fun part, lots of charts and a few new predictions…

Recently, the YM (the Dow Futures Contracts) have begun an upside price breakout that we believe is setting up for an incredible price pattern.  We’ve been suggesting that capital will focus on certain sectors over the past few months (Finance, Technology, Blue-Chips, and Mid-Caps).  We believe the safety provided by these US stocks have become a critical component for many global investors.  Thus, we believe the YM, Transports, and sector analysis are critical for skilled traders.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 18, 2019

It's Blue Skies For The Stock Market As Far As The Eye Can See / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

We have all heard it. Many times through history, the hubris of analysts, economists, and market participants has been on display when markets rally extremely strongly. In fact, such hubris often accompanies major market tops. And, history has taught us that most of them are quite severely near sighted.

Allow me to show you some examples.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 18, 2019

Stock Market Correction is Due / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Long-term trend resuming?

Intermediate trend – Initial rally is coming to an end.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, February 17, 2019

Dow Jones Gann Angle Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: readtheticker

Let's review the Dow Jones Industrial Gann Angles and its secret sauce dominate cycle.

Dow Jones hit upper resistance Gann angle early 2019, a sell of followed, now the bounce works its way through the down ward Gann Angle, a fail at either make or break point will see the bounce sell off, and that may get very interesting!

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, February 17, 2019

Here We Go – Get ready for the Stock Market Breakout Pattern Setup / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We are writing this post today with a few forward-looking expectations while attempting to warn traders that some extended rotation is likely to enter the markets over the next 30+ days.  If you’ve been following our research, you’ll know that we’ve been calling these move months in advance of other researchers and analysts.  Our September 17, 2018 research post highlighting our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system suggested the US stock markets were poised for a massive price rotation followed by a very unique price setup that we are experiencing now.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, February 16, 2019

After 8 Terrific Weeks for Stocks, What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

It’s been a terrific 8 weeks for the stock market. If anything, this proves that in the stock market, an objective investor/trader needs to have a long term bullish bias.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, February 16, 2019

What Could Happen When the Stock Markets Correct Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Harry_Dent

I hate to be so cynical, but the markets love to fool as many people as possible, bulls and bears alike. This is especially true at key turning points and even more so in extreme bubbles like the one we’ve been in since late 1994, with this final phase – and it’s unprecedented QE and tax cuts – since early 2009.

This final rally (since 2009) is all “hot air.”

This recovery has been the weakest ever in real GDP, capital spending, employment growth, and productivity (I’ll talk about this in more detail in the upcoming February edition of The Leading Edge).

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Stock-Markets

Friday, February 15, 2019

Retail Sales Crash! It’s 2008 All Over Again for Stock Market and Economy! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

On a slow moving day for the U.S. stock market, today’s big news is that “Retail Sales crashed, just like in 2008/2009!!!”. Financial media jumped all over this – nothing sells like bad news.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, February 15, 2019

2019 Starting to Shine But is it a Long Con for Stock Investors? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

An odd thing happened at the beginning of 2019 for the markets – price levels across almost all sectors were deeply depressed as a result of the October through December 2018 price correction.  We’re noticing that almost all sectors of the SP500 were relatively deeply depressed just before Christmas 2018 and the recent price rally has set up an interesting psychological phenomenon – a self-propelling bullish mantra for US Stocks.

Yes, 2018 ended with a drop – almost a CRASH.  Yet, 2019 is starting off on a terror rally that is beginning to lay the grounds for a very dramatic Q1 and possibly Q2 recovery for many in the managed and passive funds.  Remember the news in early January 2019?  Hedge funds losing 12~22% or more for the 2018 end of year returns?  Remember the feeling that these firms just couldn’t find any means of success when almost the entire 2018 year was mired in deep price rotations and sideways trading?

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 14, 2019

Will Stock Market 2019 be like 1999? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

As the stock market pushes higher, the year “1998” keeps popping up in our market studies recently. 1998 saw a rapid stock market crash, a retest (something we have yet to see today), followed by a massive nonstop rally. Everyone at the time thought that the 1998 crash was the start of a much bigger crash. To their surprise, the bull market (already late-cycle) surged for another 1.5 years before topping.

There is indeed the possibility that today is similar to 1998. There are fundamental and technical parallels.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 14, 2019

3 Charts That Scream “Don’t Buy Stocks” / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: John_Mauldin

In World War II, Nobel laureate Ken Arrow was assigned a team of statisticians to make long-range weather forecasts.

These people were some of the biggest math geniuses on the planet.

And yet, Arrow and his team soon realized that their forecasts were no better than a blind guess.

Seeing no value in their models, the team asked to be relieved of the duty.

The superiors replied: “The Commanding General is well aware that the forecasts are no good. However, he needs them for planning purposes.”

This story holds an important lesson about investing.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 14, 2019

Strategy Session - How This Stocks Bear Market Fits in With Markets of the Past / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Plunger

Question: Plunger you keep insisting that we are in a bear market.  Really? The averages have done nothing but go straight up since December 24th.  At this rate we will be at new highs within a month.  I thought prices go down in a bear market!  That’s not happening.

Answer: The most reliable method of forecasting the eventual outcome of the market over the past 118 years has been Dow’s Theory. It has withstood the test of time.  It is not a short term predictor, instead it has been likened to a weather barometer.  An instrument that forecasts changes in business conditions and market cycles.  It is not useful in predicting short term fluctuations just like a weather barometer shouldn’t be used to forecast the amount of rain or snow to fall in an upcoming storm.

It is my contention that if one gets the big cycles right he has enabled the basic setup for success in the market.  If you don’t understand the cycle and position yourself wrong in it, good luck trying to make money.  So we stick to Dow Theory, it has proven to work in the past under all market conditions.  What it says now is a bear market was triggered on December 14th 2019 which began on October 3rd 2019.  The present 8 week rally is a secondary reaction which remains uncorrected.  All rallies are corrected.  We must be patient and observe the price action of the upcoming correction.  In order to reverse the downward primary trend, the Dow and Transports must complete a downside correction of the existing rally then rally back above today’s present reaction high.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 13, 2019

A Stock Market Rally With No Pullbacks. What’s Next for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

In a rally with no pullbacks, the S&P 500 has finally closed above its 200 day moving average (slightly).

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 12, 2019

US Tech Stock Sector Setting Up for A Momentum Breakout Move / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team has warned that the precious metals market would enter a 30~45 day rotational price trend on January 28, 2019.  On January 16, 2019, we suggested that the upside price move in the US stock market had reached initial upside target zones and suggested that price pullback would be healthy near these levels. Today, we are warning that the markets are poised for a momentum breakout move that is setting up after the minor pullback in most US stock sectors the past week.

There are a number of news factors which support both or our analysis of the precious metals market and result in a failure of our analysis of the US stock market.  First, the opportunity for the US government to agree to and pass a funding bill that removes uncertainty for many months.  If the US government is able to pass a longer-term funding bill that eliminates pricing pressures and fears in the markets, the US stock market could breakout to the upside on a new momentum move very quickly.  Second, if the US/China trade issues are resolved, in any substantial form, and trade begins to normalize over the next 6+ months, this could add even more fuel to the upside of the market and create a boost of momentum for almost all sectors.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 11, 2019

Powell's Interest Rate Hikes Pause Won’t Save Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Michael_Pento

Jerome Powell threw Wall Street a lifeline recently when he decided to temporarily take a pause with the Fed’s rate hiking campaign. The Fed Head also indicated that the process of credit destruction, known as Quantitative Tightening, may soon be brought to an end.  This move towards donning a dovish plume caused the total value of equities to soar back to a level that is now 137% of GDP. For some context, that valuation is over 30 percentage points higher than it was at the start of Great Recession and over 90 percentage points greater than 1985. So, the salient question for investors is: will a slightly dovish FOMC be enough to support the massively overvalued market?

The S&P 500 is now trading at over 16x forward earnings. But the growth rate of that earnings will plunge from over 20% last year to a minus 0.8% in Q1 of this year, according to FACTSET. It might have made sense to pay 19x earnings back in 2018 because it was justified by a commensurate rate of earnings growth. But only a fool would pay 16x or 17x earnings if growth is actually negative?

The only reason why that would make sense is if investors were convinced EPS growth was about to soar back towards the unusually-strong rate of growth enjoyed last year. And for that to be the case several stars have to align perfectly.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 11, 2019

Stocks Bouncing, but Will They Resume the Uptrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks were mixed on Friday, as investors hesitated following Thursday's decline and a short-term profit-taking action. The S&P 500 index got closer to the 2,700 mark again last week. So is this just a downward correction or some new downtrend?

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.3% and +0.1% on Friday, as investors hesitated following the Thursday's decline. The S&P 500 index broke above its short-term consolidation two weeks ago and it continued higher. The market got above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% (2,713.88), but then it retraced some of the advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1% on Friday.

The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is at 2,720-2,725, marked by Thursday's daily gap down of 2,719.32-2,724.15. The resistance level is also at 2,740, marked by the local high. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,700-2,710, marked by the previous resistance level. The support level is also at 2,650.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 11, 2019

Stock Market Headwind of Fib Resistance Versus Tailwind of Fed-Speak: Which Will Win Out This Week? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Mike_Paulenoff

In last weekend's article, we focused on the relentlessly advancing S&P 500 (SPX) from its December 26 low at 2346.58 into an important Fibonacci price and time resistance zone at 2713.70 on January 31.

The 2713.70 level represented a 62% SPX recovery of the entire September-December decline, while January 31 represented day number 89 since the September 2018 all-time high, and the day that the December-January recovery rally time period equaled 38% of the overarching total timeframe from the September high.

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