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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 24, 2018

The Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes Aren’t Bearish for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The Fed hiked interest rates this Wednesday. This is far from being the last rate hike in this rate hike cycle.

We’ve already shown that rising interest rates aren’t consistently bearish for the stock market. We can look at this idea from another angle.

If rising interest rates are bearish for the stock market, then the stock market should fall after the last rate hike in a rate hike cycle (i.e. the economy and stock market should tank after the Fed has increased interest rates by “too much”).

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 23, 2018

Stocks Recovering from a "deep dive" Overnight / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX futures challenged the Cycle Bottom support by declining overnight to 2718.50. It is now in bounce mode and may challenge the trendline today. The 38.2% retracement is almost precisely at the trendline at 2702.83 while the 50% retracement is at 2721.74. Mid-Cycle resistance at 2714.10 is a common retracement point. There is central bank intervention. The question is, how far can they retrace lost ground?

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 22, 2018

The Tertiary Bubbles Have Blown Up… Can the Fed Manage the Secondary Ones? / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble

By: Graham_Summers

The big questions being tossed around Wall Street today are: why are markets such a mess? Why are we getting these wild swings?

The reality is that the markets are NOT a mess. These are actually normal healthy markets. Healthy markets move, sometimes a lot in a small span of time.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 22, 2018

Watch This Group Signal Stock Market Trend Changes / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: EWI

Virtually all stock market forecasting is based on the fallacy of linear extrapolation

Many investors would welcome a "secret insight" about the stock market that someone whispers in their ear.

But you can get "tipped off" on when a financial trend is about to change from a very public source that many investors may overlook.

That source is none other than the U.S. government.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 22, 2018

Stocks are Gapping Beneath the Trendline Support / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX futures appear to be gapping down beneath the trendline at 2700.00. This may be yet another big down day.

ZeroHedge reports, “Yesterday, we showed that according to Wall Street, the biggest tail risk facing investors right now is a "trade war"...

... and that should trade tensions escalate, lower stock prices would be the immediate result (and that managers would sell stocks in advance).

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 22, 2018

Fed Action Casts Shadow on Bullish Case for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Fed's interest rate hike drove stocks lower on Wednesday, as investors feared tightening monetary policy could considerably slow future growth. Will stock market indexes continue lower today? Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are very negative, but we may see more volatility. The market is still at a crossroads.

The main U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.2-0.3% on Wednesday's following relatively brief rally after the FOMC's Rate Decision release. The S&P 500 index continued to fluctuate within its short-term consolidation. It is currently around 5.2% below January 26 record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.2%, and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 0.3%.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 22, 2018

A Strong Economy and Weak Stock Market is Bullish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market and economy move in sync over the long run. When the stock market deviates from the economy, it inevitably realigns itself with the economy’s direction within a few months.

The U.S. stock market’s correction in February 2018 was accompanied by a growing economy. This implies that the current “small correction” will not turn into a “significant correction” or bear market. Here’s the study: what happens when…

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 22, 2018

Fed Raises US Interest Rates 25bp – Where Are We In The Stock Market Cycle? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

With the news today from the US Fed and the rate hike, we should all be asking ourselves “where are we in the market cycle” so that we can prepare for and identify proper trades that may set up in our future.  One thing is for sure; we are not in the perpetual easing environment of the past 7+ years.  The Fed indicated they are expecting at least two more rate increases are expected this year and also hinted that a forth may be possible depending on the economic activity.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Stock Markets Are Flat-to-lower Before the FOMC / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX futures are trading within a 10.5 point range around the flat line this morning. As I write it remains under mid-Cycle resistance at 2718.90 which proved to be resistance yesterday, as well. Note that the chart contains a double death cross as both Short-term and mid-Cycle resistances are beneath the 52-day Moving Average.

ZeroHedge reports, “Global shares traded in the red, and the dollar slumped before a hike in US interest rates, while awaiting key guidance on how many more to expect for this year. S&P futures were little changed, while markets in Europe and Asia dropped; Japan’s Nikkei was closed for holiday.”

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Will Powell’s Actions Pop Stock Market Perfection / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Doug_Wakefield

March 21st will be the first FOMC release under Chairman Powell.  3-month Treasury yields have risen 80-basis points since October 1st when the Fed started reducing its balance sheet for the first time since QE 1 launched in 2009. Chairman Powell has stated future hikes are in store for the rest of 2018. Based on these patterns, we should see the 6th rate hike from the Fed since December 2015 on March 21st.

Yet as markets closed on March 20th, US stock indices gave stock investors the view of “still rising, all is calm”. 

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

This Stock Market "Illusion" Can Destroy Once-Vibrant Portfolios / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: EWI


Virtually all stock market forecasting is based on the fallacy of linear extrapolation

Those who've invested solely in the stock market during the past several years have seen the value of their portfolios increase.

As of June 30, 2017, the average 401(k) balance stood at $97,700, according to Fortune magazine. That was a 9.6% increase from a year earlier. Average IRA balances were even higher at $100,200.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Stocks Appear to be Under Pressure / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX has bounced off the 2-year trendline (not shown) yesterday. Overnight futures have only made a half-hearted rally, so we may see SPX remain under the mid-Cycle resistance at 2722.23. The 38.2% retracement level is at 2720.30. Should that be the case, the decline may resume after a brief probe to that level.

ZeroHedge reports, “After yesterday's violent selloff which was sparked by a series of negative tech stories including Facebook’s escalating data scandal and a fatal accident involving an Uber self-driving car, Tuesday trading has so far been relatively calm and muted with Europe bourses paring early gains and Asian stocks trading slightly lower...

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 19, 2018

Stocks Set to Open Lower, Should You Buy? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks extended their short-term consolidation on Friday, as investors continued to hesitate following Tuesday-Wednesday move down. The broad stock market failed to continue its rebound from February 9 low last week despite technology stocks reaching new record highs. There are still two possible future scenarios. Or maybe three, but the third one is the worst.

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between 0.0% and +0.3% on Friday, extending their short-term consolidation, as investors were undecided after recent move down. The S&P 500 index gained 0.2% and it remained at the support level of previous Friday's daily gap up. It currently trades 4.5% below January 26 record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was relatively stronger than the broad stock market, as it gained 0.3%, and the technology Nasdaq Composite was unchanged.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 19, 2018

Do Stocks Bull Market Tops Need Breadth Divergences? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Despite what some bearish investors might say, the U.S. stock market’s breadth is IMPROVING right now. Here’s the NYSE’s Advance-Decline Cumulative Line. It is leading the S&P 500 higher.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 19, 2018

Bonds, Inflation & the Market Amigos / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

The Bonds segment of NFTRH 491 took a turn to tin foil territory to allow the letter writer to expose newer subscribers to his ideological views and thus, bias. #491 also got pretty talky on the precious metals as it did a thorough review of the sector’s status, with silver’s symmetry to 2016 a very key item. Hint: An ill-fated bounce like so many that have come after the 2016 top is not what we are looking for with the next rally, but it ain’t gonna be easy. You can check out this article for a good piece of the picture: Silver’s Equal and Opposite Symmetry to 2016 Indicates Future Sustainable Rally. On to the Bonds segment…

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 18, 2018

Stock Market Bulls Last Stand? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
 
Intermediate trend – The intermediate correction from 2872 could nowcontinue until May-June.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 18, 2018

Return of Stock Market Volatility Amidst Political Chaos and Uncertain Economy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Submissions

Buildadv writes: For stock market investors, the coming week is likely to see the Federal Reserve move back into focus, stealing the spotlight back, at least briefly, from worries about tariffs and political turmoil. The Fed’s two-day policy meeting, which will conclude Wednesday and is widely expected to deliver the first rate increase of 2018, will be Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s first as chairman of the central bank, and investors will be eager to find out just how much he deviates from the legacy of Janet Yellen, whom he succeeded in early February.

While market participants have fully priced in a quarter-percentage point rate increase on Wednesday, investors will parse the wording of the accompanying statement and Powell’s subsequent news conference. According to Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker, the U.S. economy is estimated to have expanded at a 1.8% clip during the first quarter of this year, which is twice the average rate for this period throughout the recovery. But higher rates are still likely to dent some industries that are seen as bond proxies, such as utilities, telecoms or consumer staples. These sectors have already been underperforming and may continue to do so for some time, according to Jaffee. Since the start of the year, telecoms, utilities and consumer staples are down between 4.5%-6.5%.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 17, 2018

Strong Earnings Growth is Bullish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P 500’s earnings growth is projected to be very strong in 2018: mid-high teens (i.e. 15-18%). Growth tends to come down as the year goes on, but even then the earnings growth rate will still exceed 10% for this year.

This is the second year in a row in which the S&P 500’s earnings growth exceeded 10%. The S&P’s earnings growth in 2017 was 13.1%.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 17, 2018

Forget the CPI, Inflation is Here. And the Markets Know It / Stock-Markets / Inflation

By: Graham_Summers

The attempts to mask inflation are reaching truly ludicrous proportions.

Bloomberg reports that the “guts of the US CPI show key inflation weakest in years.”

What are the “guts?”

Housing rents… which the CPI claims are falling.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 15, 2018

Stock Market Downward Pressure Mounting / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks extended their short-term losses on Wednesday, as they retraced most of last week's Friday's rally. The broad stock market failed to continue its rebound from February 9 low despite technology stocks reaching new record highs. Investors' sentiment worsened again following economic news, trade war fears. There are still two possible future scenarios. Or maybe three, but the third one is the worst.

The main U.S. stock market indexes extended their Tuesday's losses, as they closed 0.2-1.0% lower yesterday. The S&P 500 index lost 0.6% following Tuesday's bounce off resistance level at 2,800. However, it remained at the support level of last Friday's daily gap up. It currently trades 4.6% below January 26 record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was relatively weaker than the broad stock market, as it lost 1.0% and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost just 0.2%.

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