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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

One Thing to Do in This Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Rodney_Johnson

It’s time to get to work.

We’ve learned a thing or two since early October…

When oil is low, it can go lower.

President Trump remains unpredictable.

The Fed can be wrong. And it can hurt stocks.
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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

What If Stock Market Near-Term Recovery Rally Psychology is Spent? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Increasingly, my view of all of the action in ES (e-mini March S&P futures contract) from the 12/25/18 electronic Christmas Day low at 2316.75 into last Friday’s (1/18/19) high at 2677.75 (+15.6%) represents three distinct psychological phases of market influence, which I have color-coded on the attached chart:

1) Red: Natural Acute Oversold Market Recovery Rally,

2) Turquoise: Fed Rate Pause-(Algorithmic Headline) Rally, and

3) Gray: China Stimulus, Positive Trade News (Algorithmic Headline) Rally.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, January 21, 2019

Will China Surprise The Us Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recently, we openly discussed the potential for global turmoil related to Europe, Asia, China, and South America. The issues before the globe are that the global economy may not be firing in sync and that there are credit and debt, as well as geopolitical, issues that persist. The interesting component of all of this is that the US stock market has staged a very impressive recovery over the past two weeks that have shocked even the best Wall Street analysts and researchers. While the US recovered from elections, the Fed, FANG price collapse and a Government Shutdown, the US stock markets appeared to be falling off a cliff. Then, almost exactly on Christmas Eve, the markets turned around – even in the midst of all of this uncertainty.

Now, nearly 3 weeks after Christmas, the US stock market appears to be shaking off the negativity and headed for higher price levels. China announced a plan to eliminate the trade barriers between the US by providing a 10-year plan to gradually eliminate any US trade deficit. Even though China has discussed this plan before, the US stock market ate it up like a starving man on a deserted island. The ES rallied over 3.35% this week. The NQ rallied over 3.0% and the YM rallied over 3.25% week. 

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 20, 2019

Pay Attention To The Russell Stocks Index and Financial Sectors / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

For those that still believe the US markets are weak and poised for a total collapse, we want to bring something to your attention. Throughout weeks of uncertainty about China trade deals, the US government shutdown, continued Brexit issues and who knows what else… oh yeah US Q4 Earnings data, guess what has been taking place in some US sectors? That’s right, a rather solid price recovery.

Two of our favorite sectors to watch for signs of strength and weakness have been rocketing higher over the past few weeks after setting up a very deep price low near Christmas 2018. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the Financial Sector ETF (XLF). While the ES, NQ, and others are still waffling around trying to find the momentum to break out to the upside, pay attention to the other sectors that could be leading the way.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 20, 2019

Stock Market Counter-trend Extends / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Correcting within the very long-term bull market trend.

Intermediate trend – A bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 19, 2019

Stock Market Bull Trap? January 22 Top Likely / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Brad_Gudgeon

It has been a while since I have written a public article. The current set up is just too intriguing not to write about. Therefore, let me cut to the chase. The stock market peak of October 3, 2018 and subsequent drop into Dec 26 is not over, not by any measure that I can see. In fact, a likely C wave down from January 22 (full moon/lunar eclipse in Leo, major 4 X Bradley turn due 1/18, 32 TD top plus nasty astro aspects like Mars in Aries square Saturn combined with Jupiter square Neptune 1/13,) into February 11th is about to take place.

I believe the top on Tuesday will start from a high of 2685 (the top of the rising wedge… see chart below) and drop another 16% just like we did from Dec 3 into the 26th. That targets about 2250 on the S&P 500 for the February low (February 11 is the 33 week, 32 TD and 7 week low).  A double bottom will likely form into March 6th, the Gann 16 TD low.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 19, 2019

After the Crash, the Stock Market Made a V-shaped Recovery. What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P has now retraced more than 50%, which was the standard post-crash target outlined a few weeks ago. The stock market is exactly where it was a few months ago. This demonstrates the stock market’s “bullish bias” – it goes up more often than down. Absent significant macro economic deterioration, it’s very hard for the stock market to keep going down.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, January 18, 2019

Stock Market’s Medium Term is No Longer Bullish. It is Now Mixed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

Now that the S&P 500 has reached its 50% fibonacci retracement, its medium term outlook is no longer decisively bullish. As we mentioned before, 13 of 15 historical 20% declines saw a pullback/retest after a 50% retracement.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, January 18, 2019

SPX and Gold; Pivotal Points at Hand / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

Leaving aside our usual inclusion of macro fundamentals and market ratios, today let’s take a simple technical look at the S&P 500 and gold.

As the US stock market was becoming deeply oversold (and over-hated, sentiment-wise) in December we planned for a holiday seasonal bounce, which finally arrived with the immediate reversal after the Christmas Eve massacre when the machines (and a few human casino patrons) drove it to its downside climax. The bounce was almost a certainty, given the sentiment backdrop of the moment.

Our (NFTRH) view however, has been for an eventual decline from a significant momentum divergence (MACD & RSI) to the obvious support of 2100-2200 (which is also the rough measurement from the bearish pattern) on SPX per this weekly chart. The current market bounce was expected and necessary to rebuild the conditions for enough downside to meet our target.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 17, 2019

S&P 500 at Resistance Level, Downward Correction Ahead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks went slightly up yesterday, as investors' sentiment remained bullish following the recent advances. The S&P 500 index extended its short-term uptrend, before closing just 0.2% higher. Is this a short-term topping pattern or just another consolidation within an uptrend?

The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.2-0.6% on Wednesday, extending their short-term uptrend, as investors' sentiment remained bullish ahead of the quarterly earnings releases. The S&P 500 index continued its rebound off the December the 26th medium-term low of 2,346.58. The index traded 20.2% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91 on that day. Then the market rallied and retraced almost 50% of the downtrend. It broke slightly above 2,600 mark on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.2% yesterday.

The nearest important level of resistance of the S&P 500 index is at 2,635-2,640, marked by December the 14th daily gap down of 2,635.07-2,637.27. There is also a resistance level of 50% retracement of the whole downtrend from the mentioned September's record high at 2,643.7. The next resistance level is at 2,675-2,685, marked by the early December local highs. On the other hand, the level of support is at 2,580-2,600, marked by the recent resistance level. The support level is also at 2,550-2,570.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 17, 2019

The Fed Caused the Stock Market Sell-Off—but Not with Rate Hikes / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: John_Mauldin

I recently argued Jerome Powell did the right thing by raising rates a mere 25 basis points.

He did what Janet Yellen should have done years ago. And for the first time since Volcker, a Fed chair declared the Fed’s independence from the market and politicians.

Besides the Fed’s dual mandate, Greenspan, Bernanke, and, in particular, Yellen had a third unofficial mandate. It was to make sure that asset prices keep rising.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 17, 2019

Macro Could Weaken After US Government Shutdown. What This Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P is close the reaching its 50% retracement, which is the standard target before a pullback/retest. After the pullback/retest, what happens next depends on the macro economy. If the macro economy deteriorates, then stocks will keep going down. If the macro economy weakens, then stocks will keep going up. But even if the bull market has more room left, it doesn’t have a lot of room. A 1999-scenario (1 last year of the bull market) is a best case scenario.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 17, 2019

US Stock Market Indexes Reaches Fibonacci Target Zone – Where to Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Near December 21, 2018, our research team began a series of posts indicating the US Major Indexes should be set up for the “Ultimate Bottom” low that we suggested would take place after the US Elections (November 2018) and which would launch an upside price rally.  Today, we are writing to announce that the first leg of this upside move appears to be nearly completed.

It is critical to mention here that as of only a day go the short-term market trend from a technical standpoint has turned up. So, getting long before this point would be trying to catch a bottom which is tough and risky to do. The good news is that we are expecting a second leg higher after we get some rotation to the downside.

Using our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system, we can see that the current prices of the ES and NQ are very near to the immediate Fibonacci Price Target Zone.  You will see from the following charts that both the ES and NQ are already within this zone and/or very near to what we believe will be immediate resistance.  This means we should expect a bit of price rotation near these levels before another upside leg takes place driving prices higher.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 17, 2019

Stock Market Rig is Ending… Next Leg Down is About to Begin / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

This week is options expiration week… Wall Street’s favorite time to ramp the markets in order to insure the maximum number of options contracts expire worthless.

THIS, nothing else, is why the markets rallied this week. Tweets from the President or some statement by a Fed official were simply the excuse Wall Street used to engage in this game.

And that game is now ending. Stocks face TREMENDOUS overhead resistance here.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

What Will the Stock Market Do Around Earnings Season / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The U.S. stock market has done well throughout the first half of January 2019. With earnings season just ahead and the stock market under its 200 day moving average, the high probability of a pullback/retest remains.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

2018-2019 Pop Goes The Debt Bubble / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

Fiat paper money: Once gold and silver derivatives
Today, instruments of debt issued by central banks

After the 2008 financial crisis, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke invoked Milton Friedman’s theory that a helicopter drop of money could prevent a collapsing credit bubble from becoming a Great Depression.

When credit bubbles burst, defaulting debt and disappearing demand cause the velocity of money to plunge; and, in 2008, Bernanke resorted to Friedman’s untested theory hoping to prevent the US economy from collapsing as it did in the 1930s.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

Are Global Stock Markets About To Rally 10 Percent? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Technical Traders Ltd. is issuing new analysis which indicates the US and global markets may be poised for a dramatic upside price swing over the next couple.  Recent events have driven asset class values to new valuations that may change the dynamics of markets for a few months.  Prior to August/September 2018, many traders were fearful of the expectations of the US Federal Reserve, Global Trade Issues and the US Elections. Combine this with the end of the year liquidity issues and the threat of a US government shutdown over the wall funding and we have almost a perfect storm brewing for uncertainty and fear.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, January 14, 2019

S&P 500 Bounces Off 2,600, Downward Reversal? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Stocks were little changed on Friday, as investors hesitated following the recent rally. The broad stock market has retraced its recent decline following the S&P 500's breakdown below 2,600. Will the short-term uptrend continue? Or is this still just an upward correction before another leg lower?

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.2% and 0.0% on Friday, as investors hesitated following the recent advance. The broad stock market has retraced its recent decline following the S&P 500's breakdown below 2,600. It continued its recent rebound off the December the 26th medium-term low of 2,346.58 recently. The index traded 20.2% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91 on that day. Then the market rallied and retraced some of the downtrend. It got very close to 2,600 mark again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was unchanged and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.2% on Friday.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, January 14, 2019

Is the Stock Market Recovery Rally Nearing Exhaustion? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: Mike_Paulenoff

My article last week, "Tale of the S&P 500 Tailwind," came on the heels of the Emini S&P 500 (ES)'s rally of 100.75 points (4.1%) off the 2019 low and 53.25 points (+2.1%) above the Christmas week close. On its face, the advance was impressive, but recall that I qualified my enthusiasm, stating the following:

"In the aftermath of the Christmas Upside Reversal, last week ES (e-Mini March S&P) traversed a range from 2438.50 to 2539.25... and ALL OF IT occurred on Friday (1/04/19) after Jay Powell acquiesced to the wounded easy money masses, appearing to become a kinder, gentler, and more investor-sensitive Fed Chairman."

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 13, 2019

Stock Market Looking Toppy! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Correcting within the very long-term bull market trend.

Intermediate trend – A bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

Read full article... Read full article...

 


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