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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 14, 2022

Stock Margin Debt, Market Breadth and Investor Sentiment Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Will there be an Early Fed Pivot?

Well all of these dollars flooding into the US are going to push up asset prices / generate economic activity, so a strong dollar is also acting to mute the Fed's actions and thus Jerome Powell could deliver on what his dot plot implies i.e. that the Fed funds rate rises to 4.75% during Q1 2023 which means continuing dollar strength and pain for most economies and downwards pressure on stock prices. Though stock prices tend to discount the future and so are factoring in the possibility of 4.75% in today's stock prices rather than wait for March 2023, following which the Fed's Dots suggest rates falling to 2.5%. Though the Fed dot plots are virtually always wrong 1 year out.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 14, 2022

Banzai CPI and Fed / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 celebrated the „only“ 7.1% CPI YoY news, but it was really just the real assets who kept their gains while stocks fell back to where they started from in what appears the correct big picture view of being on the lookout to get short as betting it all on a strong Santa Claus rally has the appeal of picking up pennies in front of a steamroller without more USD retreat juice. I really liked the precious metals performance with miners increasingly confirming the upswing, with both metals doing increasingly well. Let alone copper and oil...

Where does that land us in stocks today? The weak follow through has me on toes, this inability to defend 4,070. I doubt we would overcome my long ago touted 4,130 obstacle later today as Powell dutifully delivers a no surprise statement. Conference is a volatility wildcard.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, December 12, 2022

Stock Market Volatility (VIX)A Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This stocks bear market has been far less volatile than previous bear markets where the often voiced wait for capitulation moment has just flat out failed to materialise i.e. a VIX spike to above 45, instead each new low has failed to even reach 40. Nor is the significance of any decline reflected in the VIX peaks. So whilst many inexperienced investors may cry crash and collapse in fear on every down day, however this stocks bear market has so far been highly orderly, technical even as though a machine intelligence is at work behind the scene milking the market of money like a cash cow. The VIX range of 35 to 20 is very orderly given MSM and blogosfear noise, too calm for my liking i.e. most of the swings have not been volatile enough to capitalise upon.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, December 11, 2022

Intel Empire Strikes Back! The IMPOSSIBLE Stocks Bull Market Begins! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Liz Truss the kiss of Death is GONE! She would have gone earlier but had to keep her mouth shut for her the first two weeks of her dire premiership due to the death of the Queen. Rishi is the parties choice and there was speculation that Boris Macbeth Johnson was about to make a come back after flying in from his Caribbean Island to return to power barely weeks after being kicked out of No 10 by his own party. But no more, after reading the writing on the wall Boris has decided his return to power would have blown the Tory party apart, triggering a general election that would have seen the Tories wiped out. Maximum political uncertainty at a time of of MAXIMUM economic and market distress with Inflation soaring into the stratosphere sending ALL nations teetering on the brink of collapse and NOT just the UK. ALL are suffering the consequences of the US sucking the world dry of Dollars like Sagittarius A* stripping orbiting stars of their economic mass which as I stated in my previous article could usher in an abrupt halt to the Fed's taken for granted rate hike cycle to 5%, a pivot of sorts so as to avoid a headlong plunge into Financial Crisis 2.0, that's if Fed members have any sense between their ears.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, December 11, 2022

Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

In my extensive analysis of September 2021 this indicator warned to expect the Dow to drop to 28k, the low to date has been 28.7k! For the bull market proper to resume this indicator needs trade above the thick black line, until then the market remains in no mans land of trading within range with the risks of worse to come. Most probable is the market trades in a range i.e. to trade above the blue dotted line, until the market has worked through it's bear phase. At this point I am discounting a re-run of 2008, as so far the indicator is showing a tendency to remain above the grey line, however this also implies that the bull market proper could be as much as a year away! In terms of price, the Dow is not going to see a new all time high anytime soon, probably beyond the end of 2023.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, December 11, 2022

Portfolio Convenctial Wisdom 60% stocks, 40% bonds? Ha! / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022

By: EWI

In his February 2022 book, Last Chance to Conquer the Crash, Robert Prechter said:

Countless advisors have counseled "diversification," a "balanced portfolio" and other end-all solutions to the problem of allocating your investments. These approaches are delusional. ... No investment strategy will provide stability forever.

That certainly has applied to the classic 60% stocks / 40% bonds portfolio this year.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, December 08, 2022

How Bear Markets DIE - Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dow Short-term Trend Analysis

The Dow is bouncing off a new bear market low of 28,700 having already broken above the preceding low of 29.7k that targets resistance at 31k. However given the degree of momentum behind this rally the Dow could easily continue climbing to target 32k which would represent a sizeable 12% advance in what I would consider as being a sub-swing i.e. not the whole move which implies that this rally that apparently is being dismissed by most as bear market rally could eventually retrace the whole disown move from the 34k high. But for now the Dow 1st targets 31k and then 32k before it is likely to correct towards 30.5k before RESUMING it's bull run.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 07, 2022

S&P 500 Sold Off Again - Is This Still Just a Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stock prices suffered another sharp decline yesterday – is this a change of trend?

The S&P 500 index lost 1.44% on Tuesday, as the broad stock market continued its Monday’s 1.8% sell-off. It reacted to Monday’s better-than-expected ISM Services PMI release. On Thursday the S&P 500 reached new local high of 4,100.51, and on yesterday it went closer to the 3,900 level.

This morning the S&P 500 is expected to open 0.3% lower after an overnight decline of more than 1%. We may see a short-term rebound following the recent declines. It still looks like a consolidation within an uptrend. However, the index broke below its two-month-long upward trend line yesterday, as we can see on the daily chart:
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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, December 06, 2022

Stock Market Investor Sentiment / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Apparently today's stock market sentiment is the most bearish since the March 2009 low! Which implies the end of the bear market is imminent. However there could be a double dip lower low.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, December 06, 2022

Stock Market Breadth / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Cumulative NYSE Advancing / Declining issues proved a useful early warning indicator going into the stock market top, since which has closely tracked the markets decline so is not showing any obvious positive nor negative deviation, a case of continuing to keep ones eye on it for a similar cues.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, December 06, 2022

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: The Coming Week Will Tell Us How We Get To 4300SPX / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Avi_Gilburt

Early on in the week, the US markets declined and the supposed reason for such decline was due to the Covid lockdowns and mass protests of such in China. Yet, the Chinese markets surged strongly at the same time. And, this had many people scratching their heads.

Furthermore, right before we began the mid-week surge towards our next higher target/resistance, Powell gave a wonderful speech during which is he basically did not say anything different than what the market already knew. Yet, of course, pundits were quick to point to the speech as the reason we rallied to the next resistance/target.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 03, 2022

Stock Market and Margin Debt Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Margin debt tends to peak and fall long before the stock market turns lower as basically speculators start to feel the pain of holding losing positions and thus cut back on their bets. Either that or are forced to close their losing trades due to failure to meet margin calls, in which respect this indicator proved very useful in flagging the prospects for a bear market long before it materialised as stock prices trended higher on petrol fumes as the fuel tank was empty.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, December 01, 2022

US Recession 2023 Already Happened in 2022! Stealth Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

FED Balance Sheet

Not to forget the inflation mega-trend courtesy of rampant central bank money printing to monetize government debt coupled with the fake inflation indices where up until recently the Fed had succeeded in hoodwinking the masses that US inflation was just 1%. Instead at that time I warned it was more like 6%! Now it's more like 14%. Anyway the money printing binge now totals $8.8 trillion, up from $4 trillion at the start of 2020 and down from a a peak of $9.62 trillion in the so called Taper. We saw how the taper of 2019 went which at the time I warned would eventually resolve in the Fed Balance sheet DOUBLING. of course I was not expecting it to happen the very NEXT YEAR in 2020!

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 29, 2022

Stock Market Valuation Reset and Future EPS / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock markets trend between a state of over valuation and under valuation in earnings terms, hence my warnings to expect a valuation reset during most of the second half of 2021 which means regardless of what happens to the economy THIS bear market WAS inevitable! And it HAS come to PASS to great extent where many of the most over valued stocks have HALVED in price and not just the usual suspects but the likes of AMD and TSMC! AMAZON! And so on.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, November 27, 2022

After This Holiday Stock Market Rally, You Better Know When To Walk Away / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

This week’s investor insight will make you think twice about the current stock and bond rally as we head into the end of the year.

We get a lot of questions about if the stock market has bottomed or if it is headed lower and how they can take advantage of the next Major market move. Over the next 6 to 12 months, I expect the market to have violent price swings that will either make or break your financial future. So let me show a handful of charts and show what I expect to unfold.

Let’s dive in.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, November 26, 2022

Stock Market Winning the Day, Nibbling at 4040 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 closed on a fine note, and keeps nibbing at 4,040 – the great resistance that will ultimately fall (likely early next week). Running the stops before that, but key sectoral performance indicates that it would be only weak hand that would be shaken out.

If the sellers had any chance to push through, it was this week – and the final opportunity to do so this year, is to evaporate once the second week of Dec gets out of the way. The outside markets aren‘t hinting at much success for the bears – bonds remain risk-on, USD not throwing a spanner in the works… 10y over 2y yield relenting together with 3m yield going down, that would be most constructive for the bulls – still absent for now, and that‘s why this Q4 rally will fail in Q1 2023.

Opening today‘s article for everyone after Thanksgiving – thank you all for the honor of serving you!

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 24, 2022

FTX, The Rise and Fall of a Crypto Ponzi Scheme / Stock-Markets / Scams

By: MoneyMetals

By now, you have heard about the FTX exchange bankruptcy. But you may be justifiably desensitized. Desensitized because the frequency of crypto disasters is at least yearly.

This FTX crypto scandal is a next-level scandal reading like an over-the-top Hollywood film, a bizarre crypto con story ending badly.

FTX frontman Sam Bankman-Fried was in his twenties when he became a billionaire last year.

His daily routine is highly dysfunctional, and his personality is profoundly impaired. This contrasts with most con men who are charming and charismatic.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 22, 2022

'No Mas' to Hawkish Fed Says Precious Metals Expert / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: The_Gold_Report

In light of the controversy with FTX Corp., expert Michael Ballanger shares his opinion on current news coverage and the state of the gold market and U.S. dollar to tell you his view on the precious metals and whether he believes we are headed toward a bear market rally.

A tad over forty-two years ago, an absolute freak of a boxer named Roberto Duran lost a rematch with another fine battler named Sugar Ray Leonard when he uttered the two words “No más” and ended the bout.

As disappointed as I was to watch one of my favorite boxers (“scrapper” would be a better term) throw in the towel, I was actually appalled at the physical condition of the “Manos de Piedra” (Hands of Stone) Duran, who appeared to have ended his partying off the first bout about three days earlier.

However, the words ending the match were absolutely appropriate, and they are reminiscent of my current stance toward all this controversy and outrage surrounding FTX Corp., which is dominating the digital airwaves while swiftly becoming a major vote-getting platform for politicians. Surprise, surprise .

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 22, 2022

Stock Market Ready to Spring / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 refused the intraday decline – value held up very finely. 2-year yield is on guard, but stocks are refusing to budge. Not even the sharp daily dollar upswing had much of an effect – what it did to real assets, is being (gradually) reversed, and in the case of oil, the unsubstantiated rumor was swiftly dealt with already yesterday. So much for oil supply, after $80, there comes $82.50. The same move is going to be be mirrored in silver and copper, confirmed then by gold and miners.

Today‘s key level to overcome and not see jeopardized, is 3,965 – the logical clues serving so well in determining the Nov CPI buying spree, are in place once again, favoring a bullish resolution beyond the sensitivity shown to rising dollar yesterday and declining dollar today. Stocks look willing to run (4,010s getting in sights)and this would be the ideal confirmation. Fundamentally for the 24+ hours ahead, odds are high that the Fed and manufacturing PPI would resolve in the hours ahead to the upside as well.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 21, 2022

Economic Challenges face the Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Donald_W_Dony

One of the biggest challenges that face the continuation of the 14-year economic expansion is inflation. Years of near-zero interest rates, an accommodating Fed, and low unemployment have resulted in the highest inflation rate in 40 years.

To counteract this rapid rise in inflation, the FOMC started increasing the Fed Funds Rate in May. First with small increments and then with four jumbo increases of 75 bps.

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