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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 11, 2014

Stock Market Choppy Start to New Year / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Tony_Caldaro

Quite a choppy week. After Monday’s SPX 1824 low we counted seven small waves between SPX 1830 and 1843. Net progress for the week was mixed in the SPX/DOW, the NDX/NAZ was +0.85%, and the DJ World index gained 0.6%. On the economic front positive reports remained in control. On the uptick: factory orders, the ADP index, wholesale inventories, the WLEI, long term investor Sentiment; plus the unemployment rate, weekly jobless claims and the trade deficit all improved. On the downtick: ISM services, consumer credit, monthly payrolls, and the monetary base. Next week lots of economic data, highlighted by the FED’s beige book, Retail sales, the CPI/PPI and Industrial production. Best to your week!

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 11, 2014

Poor Jobs.... Intense Complacency... Stock Market Holding Of Course.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Jack_Steiman

So naturally the market did well Friday, with the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) actually closing a few pennies above 184.00, although, by no means, far enough to call it a breakout. The Jobs Report was a true disaster, There were 74,000 jobs created versus the 200,000 those geniuses said it would be today. Only a 126,000 miss. So you would think the market would go away. You would think so anyway! It was not to be as there were periods of decent selling today, down near the breakdown level of 182.90 on the SPY. But each attempt was somehow bought up, allowing the SPY to close on the breakout at 184.00 (184.14). You really have to wonder what's going on here.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 11, 2014

Stock Market Rises After a Confusing U.S. Employment Report / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: The much anticipated December Employment Report was a bizarre mixed bag — weak job creation but a surprising decline in unemployment. Treasuries rallied in no uncertain terms. The yield on the 10-year note dropped nine bps to close at 2.88%. The S&P 500 was a bit more ambivalent in its reaction. The index hit its 0.27% intraday high a few seconds after the open and sold off to its -0.31% intraday low two hours later. It recovered to the flatline during the noon hour, and, after two hours of uncertainty, got a 3PM buy signal. The index closed with a 0.23% gain for the day and a 0.60% gain for the week.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 11, 2014

Stock Market Diamond is Back / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The Diamond  Formation is back, which is really quite exciting.  You can see that the SPX closed right at its hourly Cycle Top as well as the down-slope trendline of the Diamond with all momentum oscillators overbought.   

It has been a long time since I have reported on a Diamond Formation.  A downside break gives a very high probability 20-21% decline with 95% of those declines meeting or exceeding their targets.  That could put the SPX under 1500.00 for this formation. 

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 11, 2014

U.S. Jobs Report Rained On New Fed Chair Yellen’s Honeymoon Period / Stock-Markets / Employment

By: Sy_Harding

Once again, the Labor Department’s monthly employment report lived up to its reputation of providing a surprise in one direction or the other.

The economy created only 74,000 new jobs in December compared to the consensus forecast for 200,000.

No one saw that coming, and the bull/bear debates over what it means have begun.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 11, 2014

Stock Market Jobs Shock, the Walking Dead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Jesse

The Jobs number sucked out loud this morning, as the economy added a meager 74,000 jobs, compared to an expected number of 197,000. That's a swing and a miss. Both hourly earnings and average workweek missed as well. Today's box scores are included below.

The good news was that the unemployment percentage dropped hard from 7.0% to 6.7%. Huzzah! Stocks rally back, and the VIX plummets.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, January 10, 2014

Huge Miss on U.S. Non Farm Payrolls / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The December Department of Labor Monthly Payroll report showed a huge miss with only 74,000 new hires in the month of December. Perversely, the unemployment rate declined from 7.0% to 6.7% due to the cessation of extended benefits for 1.6 million people.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, January 10, 2014

Historic Stock Market Optimism 2014 - What Does it Mean? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: EWI

How do you know when the market is getting ready for a change? This quote from Bob Prechter's best-selling book, Conquer the Crash, looks at investor psychology at extremes in the markets:

The engine of high stock market valuation is widely shared optimism. The greater the degree of the advance that is ending, the greater the optimism at its peak. Optimism also tends to remain strong in the early stages of a bear market ...
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Stock-Markets

Friday, January 10, 2014

Surprising Hedge Fund Plays of 2014 - Bitcoins and China / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014

By: Clif_Droke

A number of hedge fund managers have already begun to make waves at the start of the New Year. In this commentary we’ll look at a couple of areas where hedge funds have taken big stakes and which could have major repercussions in the year ahead.

The first surprising hedge fund play of 2014 has emerged not in an established stock or commodity, but in the emerging digital payment platform known as Bitcoin. While purists insist it is neither a currency nor a commodity, there’s no denying the growing popularity of Bitcoin. The digital unit of stored value is attracting more and more interest from a wide array of individuals seeking an alternative to fiat currencies. Now it seems that even major financial institutions are set to enter the fray.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 09, 2014

The Great Rotation - Why It's Time to Buy the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Money_Morning

Shah Gilani writes: Calling what we're experiencing a bull market is like calling the Grand Canyon a ditch.

First of all, this rally - the one that sprung us from the depths of the Great Recession, and has pushed the S&P 500 170% above its 2009 low - has largely regained lost ground. This historic "rally" has taken the bellwether index just 265 points beyond its October 2007 peak.

In other words, 153 percentage points of the rally since 2009 were necessary just to get us back to 2007.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 09, 2014

Stock Market Fourth Loss in Five Sessions / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: Before the market opened, we were treated to the ADP report claiming a better-than-expected 238K nonfarm private jobs growth in December. Would this be another “good news is bad news” number for the market? Indeed the S&P 500 sold off to its -0.35% intraday low in the first 20 minutes of trading. But it then reconsidered and rallied to its 0.12% intraday high 45 minutes later. In yesterday’s snapshot I speculated that the Fed minutes were unlikely to hold any major surprises since the initial taper plans had already been announced. The inevitable knee-jerk reaction at 2PM was short-lived. The moderate selling over the next 90 minutes reversed in the final 30. At the closing bell, the index posted its fourth loss in the first five sessions of 2014, but it was a mere -0.02%.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 08, 2014

The Invisible Power Behind the World's Best Stock Market Investments / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis

By: DailyWealth

Porter Stansberry writes: Over the years, I've explained a lot of Wall Street's "secrets"...

I've explained how discounted bonds are sometimes vastly better investments than stocks. I've covered how selling naked puts is almost always safer and more profitable than buying stocks outright.

These concepts (and others) are critical to active investors. They all play a role in giving you the tools you need to increase your returns. You ought to know all about them and be able to use them tactically to take advantage of opportunities in the market.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 08, 2014

Is Stock Market Dependence on Easy Money Weakening? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Profit_Confidential

George Leong writes: There’s a significant cold spell out there in the Mid-East and Northeastern parts of the country. At the same time, the stock market has cooled down a little, beginning the year on a cautious note.

I recently discussed my views for the stock market going forward and while it’s early on, the ability to move higher will largely depend on the economic renewal and its impact on what the Federal Reserve does. New Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be the focal point as Ben Bernanke departs.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 08, 2014

Stock Market 2014 - Can Yen Carry Trade Offset Fed QE Tapering? / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing

By: Gary_Dorsch

For the Nasdaq-100 Index, the Bull market turned five years old in November. Wall Street hopes the hard-charging Nasdaq Bull - that has more than tripled investors’ money since Nov 2008 is still in good enough shape to keep the gains coming in Year Six. Many Main Street investors are still wary of the “Least Loved” Bull market, - and they’ve missed out on the money minting rally. Since the turnaround began on March 9th, 2009, the S&P-500 index has chalked up gains of +175%, - ranking it as the fourth longest bull market of all-time. In cash terms, the US-stock market has generated $13.5-trillion in paper wealth.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 08, 2014

Stock Market Outlook for 2014 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Clif_Droke

Stocks sagged on Monday as the annual “Santa Claus rally” season came to an end last week. As Stock Trader’s Almanac points out, “Santa Claus tends to come to Wall Street nearly every year, bringing a short, sweet respectable rally within the last five days of the year and the first two in January.” Santa Claus did indeed appear on Wall Street this time around but was a bit stingy compared to the previous five years.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 08, 2014

Stocks, Bonds and Gold - The Best Way to Compound Your 2013 Gains / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014

By: Money_Morning

Robert Hsu writes: With the exceptional, unpredictable year that was 2013, we have a one-time opportunity to "mine" its insights... and make even more money in 2014.

The trick, as you'll see, is to block out the noise, stay invested, and focus on three key numbers...

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 07, 2014

Demographics, Stocks Bear Market, Global Recession And Deflation / Stock-Markets / Deflation

By: John_Hampson

Historically, demographic trends have correlated with secular bulls and bears in financial assets, economic growth/recession and inflation/deflation. Demographic forecasts are reliable because future trends were set in place with past swells and shrinkages in birth numbers. They would change if a country was subject to large scale death (war, pandemic, or similar) or the government henceforth adopted radical immigration policies. Demographics are particularly potent in countries that are relatively closed to migration, so understand that China has the smallest percentage of immigrants of any country (0.1% of the population), and Japan just 1.9% (compared to USA, UK and Germany all over 10%). My focus is on USA, China, Japan, Germany and UK, as collectively they make up 50% of world GDP. Know that whilst the European Union abolished barriers to movement within it, the demographics across all the member nations are uniformly poor.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, January 06, 2014

U.S. Stock Market Too Big to Pop / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Peter_Schiff

Most economic observers are predicting that 2014 will be the year in which the United States finally shrugs off the persistent malaise of the Great Recession. As we embark on this sunny new chapter, we may ask what wisdom the five-year trauma has delivered. Some big thinkers have declared that the episode has forever tarnished freewheeling American capitalism and the myth of Wall Street invincibility. In contrast, I believe that the episode has, for the moment, established supreme confidence in the powers of monetary policy to keep the economy afloat and to keep a floor under asset prices, even in the worst of circumstances. This represents a dramatic change from where we were in the beginning of 2008, and unfortunately gives us the false confidence needed to sail blindly into the next crisis.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, January 06, 2014

Stock Market Resistance & Cycles Asserting Themselves / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the severe correction of 2007-2009 may have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.

Intermediate trend - An important top formation is in the making.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 05, 2014

US Stock Markets Still Setting Up for a Major Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: WavePatternTraders

Short term

We went into this week looking for a short term top for wave [iii], the late day spike on New Year's eve appeared to give us the small spike from a small triangle, so it set up for a reversal this past week for wave [iv]. My preferred idea is that this is still in wave [iv] and a new high is still to come, although there is an alternative count that suggests the peak is in place for wave [v] of 5, however I would need to see a strong decline under 16200 to suggest a reversal.

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