Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Thursday, June 06, 2013
Investors Beware: Underlying Weakness in Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
George Leong writes: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is down 2.3% from its record-high on May 28, but just like the S&P 500, the DJIA appears to be flashing some fatigue on the charts, suggesting some stock market risk and possible market correction.
Now, this may only be a temporary pause, or it could be foreshadowing some upcoming selling, stock market risk, or a potential buying opportunity.
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Thursday, June 06, 2013
Stock Market Correcting Harder..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
The market is finally feeling the wrath of the correction. Emotions are flying high. People are confused and angry. That's when you know the market has begun to sell with some force. When people hate the game or anyone they depend on when playing the game, you know the selling has truly begun. It's easy to be happy when markets are climbing, but it's not so easy when it finally sells 5-8%. You hope people have taken the warnings about the difficulty of sustainable upside seriously and weren't playing too inappropriately, but the game does beg for action since in reality, it's nothing more than a big casino in many ways. The lure of playing is always there. There's no one to stop you. You're free to do whatever you want at all times. The house isn't watching. You are there for six and a half hours if you don't include pre- and post-market action and you have the freedom to do whatever you want.
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Wednesday, June 05, 2013
What Happens When the Stock Market Loses Life Support? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Stocks are on borrowed time.
The single item that has driven stock prices over the last four plus years (since the 2008 Crash) has been the Fed’s expansion of its balance sheet. David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff, depicted this fact beautifully in the chart below:
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Wednesday, June 05, 2013
A Summer Stock Market Crash Scenario / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Despite the recent weakness, the broad market has displayed a fair amount of resilience in the face of rising interest rates and falling commodity prices. The charts even leave us with some hope that there will be one more rally to new highs in the coming weeks. But a growing list of problems also suggests the market could be setting up for a repeat of the 1998 mini-crash later this summer.There are several parallels between now and the spring and summer of 1998 which led to the July-October decline. The year 1998 was an exceptionally strong one for U.S. equities for the first half of the year; that year also witnessed a strengthening domestic economy. Like this year, however, 1998 saw trouble begin overseas with global weakness reflected by falling commodity prices.
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Wednesday, June 05, 2013
Lessons from Economic Crises in Argentina / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
Nick Giambruno: Joining me now is David Galland, the managing director of Casey Research. His internationalization story, which involved moving his life and his family from the US to Argentina, was recently featured in Internationalize Your Assets, a free online video from Casey Research. He is perfectly suited to help us better understand some of the important lessons in internationalization that Argentina offers. Welcome, David.
David Galland: Nice to be here.
Nick: First, why don't you give us a little background about the Argentine people and how they have learned to deal with their government and recurring financial crises?
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Wednesday, June 05, 2013
Why Tracking the Heavily Shorted Stocks Makes Sense / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
George Leong writes: When I look at potential trading opportunities, I like to scan for stocks that have high short selling positions in them. These are the traders betting against the stock.
Now, while there’s always some validity to why a stock becomes a short selling target, it’s not always the case; this is where I see contrarian trading opportunities.
Wednesday, June 05, 2013
Everything You Believe Is Wrong / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
Marc Lichtenfeld writes: I’m reading a fascinating book called the Emperor of All Maladies by Siddhartha Mukherjee. It details the history of cancer and cancer treatments.
What I find most interesting is not the chemistry or biology in how new medicines were discovered (the book is not heavy on the science, so don’t be scared off). Instead, what makes the book so thought provoking is how sure doctors were of their philosophies toward cancer… and yet were completely wrong.
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Wednesday, June 05, 2013
Financial Contagions Spread Global Investment Dysfunction / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
Australia and New Zealand, as well as many other nations around the world, have caught an economic virus of sorts. This contagion is primarily being spread by Japan, the United States and the European Monetary Union, all of whom have undertaken increasingly irresponsible monetary and financial policies whose effects are proving communicable.
People are used to goods being in global competition, where the prize goes to those nations who produce the best goods at the lowest cost. However, there is a loophole in this simple relationship, whereby cost depends on the relative value of a nation's currency, and that can be deliberately altered by a nation.
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Wednesday, June 05, 2013
Professor Forecasts Dow to Hit 17,000, Will It Really Happen This Year? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market
George Leong writes: There are some signs the stock market is developing some froth. Besides a growing disconnect between the record levels of the stock market and the underlying economic and business fundamentals, we are witnessing predictions that remind me of the froth in 2000.
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Wednesday, June 05, 2013
Why I'm Calling a Stock Market Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Shah Gilani writes: Party like it's 1999.
I'm not talking about celebrating the new millennium all over again. I'm talking about celebrating the markets roaring ahead, like they did in 1999.
Just remember: There will be a price to pay. There was then, and there will be again.
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Wednesday, June 05, 2013
Dangerous Divergences Between Bonds and Stocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
It all seems so surreal. After being mesmerized by the Fed’s hallucinogenic “Quantitative Easing,” (QE) drug, and seduced by the Fed’s Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP), and rescued by the Fed’s clandestine intervention in the stock index futures market, for the past 4-½-years, it’s easy to forget that there was once a time when the Fed’s main policy tool was simply adjusting the federal funds rate. It’s even harder to recall that two decades ago, the Fed’s raison d’être was combating inflation, whereas today, the Fed’s main mission is rigging the stock market, and inflating the fortunes of the wealthiest 10% of Americans.
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Wednesday, June 05, 2013
Follow the Fed to 50% Stock Market Crash Flops / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
John Hussman is one of the savviest investing minds I know, and so I never miss his Weekly Market Comment. This week he wrote about an interesting disconnect between what investors believe about "fighting the Fed" (i.e., don't do it) and the reality of S&P 500 returns, and I've made that piece today's Outside the Box.
John leads off with a provocative fact: "… the last two 50% market declines – both the 2001-2002 plunge and the 2008-2009 plunge – occurred in environments of aggressive, persistent Federal Reserve easing." Go figure, right? And to make the situation even more counterintuitive and confusing,
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Wednesday, June 05, 2013
Crazy Extend and Pretend Economic World - Cyprus Was the Warning / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
In no particular order the following is a list of what many people think are contemporary insanities. Since most of these have been widely discussed, links have not been provided. The information is easily available via Internet searches.
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Tuesday, June 04, 2013
US Stock Market Foreshadows Another Rally – True Story! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Over the past couple week’s investors and traders have been growing increasingly bearish for the US stock market. While I too also feel this rally is getting long in the teeth there is no reason to exit long positions and start shorting.
My followers know I do not pick tops and I do not pick bottoms. This I explained in great detail in my previous report. There are more cons to that tactic and on several different levels (timing, volatility, emotions, lack of experience, addiction) than there are pro’s.
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Tuesday, June 04, 2013
Stock Market Titanic Syndrome / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
The media was all abuzz on Friday with news of another sighting of the dreaded Hindenburg Omen. As there was no shortage of stories describing the “omen” I decided to use this space to mention another indicator with a name which is just as scary: the Titanic Syndrome.On Thursday (one day before the Hindenburg sighting and Friday’s 200 point drop in the Dow!) the Titanic Syndrome appeared. This phenomenon was discovered by Bill Ohama in 1965. Ohama wrote that the syndrome is typically followed by a 10% drop in the Dow.
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Tuesday, June 04, 2013
Stock Market Quietly Correcting.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Markets find a way when the time is right. And they also find a way when the time is right. Confused? I'll explain. When they want to correct they do so. No amount of good news will take the market higher. Good economic reports will simply be ignored. On the other hand, when the market wants to correct, but not get slaughtered, they'll find a way to hang in there even when the very worst of news hits the street. We got that type of news today in a very big way. The ISM Manufacturing Report came out at 49.00. Gulp! Contraction!
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Tuesday, June 04, 2013
Stock Market SPX, VIX Winding Up For Bearish Punch / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
The SPX moves may appear disappointing at first glance. However, there is a lot of coiled up energy stored in these moves. All of these waves are impulsive and no matter how much they are being fought against, the waves are grinding down the opposition.
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Monday, June 03, 2013
The Mirage Called the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Michael Lombardi writes:
While an economic slowdown is looming over the global economy, no one seems to care, as stock markets continue to reach new record-highs—giving investors false hopes of economic growth. But how long can this mirage actually last?
The economic slowdown in the global economy I’m talking about is a worldwide pullback in growth. Take India as the first example. According to India’s Central Statistics Office, the Indian economy is growing at five percent—its slowest pace in a decade! The director general of the Confederation of Indian Industry was quoted late last week as saying, “With no visible pick-up in any key levers of the economy, the situation remains grim.” (Source: Mallet, V., “India records slowest growth in a decade,” Financial Times, May 31, 2013.)
Monday, June 03, 2013
China Showing Surprising Interest in the U.S. Stock Market Food Sector / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis
George Leong writes: Over the past few years, we have seen an increase in takeover activity in North America’s stock markets by China-based companies. The takeover targets have largely been in the energy and resources areas, where China is in search of alternative sources of raw materials.
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Monday, June 03, 2013
Friday’s Stock Market Drop Was Just a Hint Of What’s Coming / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
The gaming of economic data continues in the US.
On Friday it was announced that consumer confidence hit its highest level in nearly six years. Indeed, the last time we saw confidence in the economy as this reading was July 2007…
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