Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, July 26, 2010
Stocks Stuck in Trading Range Despite Positive Corporate Earnings Reports / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Jon D. Markman writes: Despite positive earnings reports last week from more than a few bellwether companies, stocks remain stuck in a trading range that continues to test investors' patience and skill.
Stocks launched higher last week in another round of the hyper-volatile action that has plagued the equity markets over the last three months. The good news is that some technical resistance was knocked out in the process, potentially setting the stage for a bigger rally in weeks to come.
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Monday, July 26, 2010
How To Be Positioned for SP500, Gold & Oil / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
The second half of last week we saw some strong price action in the equities market. The SP500 broke through the 5 and 50 day moving averages closing the week just under key resistance levels. The SP500 futures will find resistance at the June high $1099.25, $1100 which is whole number then at $1103 which is the 200 day moving average. Each of these are clumped together making it really just one solid area which sellers will be waiting to short the market.
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Sunday, July 25, 2010
Stocks, Commodities and Financial Markets, The Shape of Things to Come / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
"What a cruel thing is war: to separate and destroy families and friends, and mar the purest joys and happiness God has granted us in this world; to fill our hearts with hatred instead of love for our neighbors, and to devastate the fair face of this beautiful world" --- Robert E. Lee, letter to his wife, 1864
The special pay master, Kenneth R. Feinberg, let it be known that seventeen firms made “ill-advised” and “troublesome” payouts to their executives while they were receiving TARP funds. Altogether the payouts totaled US $1.6 billion and Mr. Feinberg added that the executives had no legal obligation to give the money back.
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Sunday, July 25, 2010
Mid 2010 Investment and Economic Thought / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
It was my mantra at the beginning of the year that long-term investors should stay in cash and wait for attractive buying opportunities to come along.
Price-earnings ratios are once again becoming attractive. While they may seem high and nowhere near lows that sparked past bull markets investors would be wise to begin putting together lists of favorite stocks and begin monitoring prices in anticipation of putting cash to work.
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Sunday, July 25, 2010
SP-500, GLD and GDX Investor Sentiment Trumps Everything / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
Markets rise when the preponderance of participants are buyers, and fall when the preponderance of participants are sellers. One of the key ways to anticipate the pendulum swings of participant behavior, and therefore price behavior, is to evaluate sentiment. Sentiment, more than fundamentals or technical analysis, trumps everything.
When too many players are on the same side of a trade they eventually find themselves in a crowded position where most everyone around them has the same motivation – to reverse their position when the tide changes.
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Charting the Stock Market is Similar to Tracking a Squirrel Crossing a Busy Street / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Glenn Holderreed of Quacera Capital Management and the QPM Radar sent me an email the other day describing the market:
"Charting this market is similar to tracking the moves of a squirrel crossing a busy street. Quickly moving to the middle, no better turn back, no, no, I can make it across, oh no I better go back, shucks I can make it across. Sometimes they make it, but many get flattened. I think there are a few flattened in this market."
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Sunday, July 25, 2010
Stocks Bull Markets Generate Economic Growth / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
The UK economy is booming! 1.1% growth for Q2 2010 annualises to 4.4%. The academic economists that populate the mainstream press were caught off guard again! with growth expectations ranging from 0.3% to 0.5%. As is usually the case the excuses button was pressed to try and mask the fact that they to all intents and purposes remain clueless on the direction of UK Economy with much press chatter focused on an non existant double dip recession.
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Sunday, July 25, 2010
Positive European Bank Stress Tests Sending Markets Higher / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Hello Traders!!
Equity market was higher this week with S&P 500 up around 3.55%, and finished the week above resistance line connected from May 11th, 2010. At the same time the prices moved and closed above the 50 day SMA, for the first time since early May when S&P was falling from its highs. Technically the stocks market is now headed higher, towards the 1140 region, as we also pointed out in our past newsletter (U.S. Dollar And Stocks: “Market Psychology and Wave Structure").
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Positive European Bank Stress Tests Sending Markets Higher / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Hello Traders!!
Equity market was higher this week with S&P 500 up around 3.55%, and finished the week above resistance line connected from May 11th, 2010. At the same time the prices moved and closed above the 50 day SMA, for the first time since early May when S&P was falling from its highs. Technically the stocks market is now headed higher, towards the 1140 region, as we also pointed out in our past newsletter (U.S. Dollar And Stocks: “Market Psychology and Wave Structure").
Saturday, July 24, 2010
No Dow Theory Stock Market Sell Signal / Stock-Markets / Dow Theory
On June 30th both the Industrials and the Transports closed below their June 7th lows. In doing so, anyone who had not already proclaimed a Dow theory “sell signal” seems to have done so at that time. I stated here in my last post, as well as in recent audio interviews, that I disagreed with anyone who has made such statements in regard to Dow theory. I have since received a number of questions asking me how so many people could be wrong about Dow theory and if my position has changed.
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Saturday, July 24, 2010
Statistical View of Price Ranges for U.S. and China Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The price range you might expect for a security is a function of your time frame and the volatility of the security. Investors with a 10-year time frame have a much different price range expectancy than an investor or trader with a 10-month, 10-week, 10-day or 10-minute time frame.
Let's look at volatility based price range possibilities for the US S&P 500 and the China FTSE Xinhua 25 over different time frames from the unique high of each in 2007, low in 2008 or 2009, YTD and from the most recent important high.
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Saturday, July 24, 2010
Stock Market Edging Through The Wall..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
What a fight we are witnessing. The bears setting up camp right at 1099. The bulls working every single day to try to get through 1099, but seemingly never able to make the necessary move. Why? Because those bears have such a strong confluence of resistance within an 8-point range. We talked about it yesterday. The previous tails off 1099, the trend line at 1095 and the 50-day exponential moving average at 1091. 1091 to 1099, and yet within that small 8-point range, there is resistance after resistance that on their own would be difficult let alone having all of these headaches come together in such a tight area.
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Friday, July 23, 2010
Markets Stressful Finish To The Week / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
On a turn around Thursday markets staged a complete reversal with renewed risk appetite replacing the post Bernanke “unusual uncertainty” risk aversion. The day kicked off with some robust European data (better UK retail sales and German PMI) but it was a series of upside earnings surprises Stateside that proved the catalyst for the rebound U.S. stocks rose, with the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index gaining the most in two weeks, after companies as diverse as United Parcel Service to AT&T and Qualcomm all increased profit forecasts.
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Friday, July 23, 2010
A Battle Royal in the S&P 500 Stocks Index / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The battle between the bulls and the bears continues in the S&P 500 with neither side able to gain the upper hand. This choppy trading action will eventually lead to a large move one way or the other. The bulls are betting that we are headed higher and the bears are betting that the economy is going tank.
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Friday, July 23, 2010
The Wall Strikes Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The day after fed Bernanke came out and told the world things stink the market rallied anyway, getting up to the big breakout level at 1099 on the S&P 500 . Interesting in that Bernanke told everyone yesterday that there was risk to the down side with respects to the expected GDP growth of 3.5% over the next few years. The market hated this because it also left the door open to a double dip recession scenario. Today, however, Mr. Bernanke came out and said he did not expect that to happen. Just slow growth but no double dip recession. The market loved it and rallied hard once it opened up for trading.
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Friday, July 23, 2010
Excellent Day for the Stocks Bulls / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The indices had an excellent day for the bulls, as they gapped up big, blew through initial resistance and kept running, reaching 1870 on the Nasdaq 100 and 1097 area on the S&P 500. Over the next few hours, they pulled back, bounced again, couldn't get through, and then backed off late in the session, but in the last 15-20 minutes came on again to finish with strong gains.
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Thursday, July 22, 2010
Stock Market, Dollar and Gold Trend Facts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
I’ve known for a long time that elections were all about money, but I never realized just how bad and broad the problem was until I read that most of the sitting judges along the Gulf Coast receive donations from big oil. Big money has its hand in everything and it is the dominant force in the United States today. It elects your government, decides how you live, decides what and how you eat, where you can go and where you can’t, and what kind of life your children will live. It’s the modern version of the old fashioned “company store”, the theme from Tennessee Ernie Ford’s song “Sixteen Tons”.
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Thursday, July 22, 2010
Stock Market Thrill-Ride Thursday, Where Will Economic Indicators Lead Us? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Isn’t this fun?
Up 200, down 200, up 200, down 200 - wash out your savings, rinse and repeat! What a total sham of a market we have these days with machines running us up and down on virtually no news at all. Yesterday they would have you believe that Ben Bernanke caused a sell-off. How ridiculous is that? He didn’t say one thing that he didn’t already say in the Fed Minutes that were released on the 14th, which were the notes from the meeting of June 23rd so for analysts to get on TV and say “the markets were concerned by the Chairman’s comments” is beyond stupid – it’s criminal negligence.
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Reasons to Sell China Stocks and ETFs / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
In the aftermath of the $19 billion Agricultural Bank of China IPO, the dragon is struggling… and there are plenty of reasons to consider selling.
A few months back we broke down the major China ETFs – FXI, HAO and PGJ. (You can access that piece here.)
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Thursday, July 22, 2010
Bernankes Unusually Uncertain Gloom Impacts Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
US Fed Chairman Bernanke’s semi annual testimony on the Hill proved to be the game changer for stocks yesterday. Just as they had bounced Tuesday on whispers that he may offer fresh new policy measures, accommodation to support the markets, re-stimulate the flagging economy so stocks sold off Wednesday when he failed to deliver such. His comments were basically a rehash of the FOMC minutes (i.e. a fairly dour assessment of the economy) with one added Greenspan like euphemism for our lexicon i.e. that the outlook for the economy is “unusually uncertain”.
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