Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, May 14, 2012
Financial Markets Head Firmly In The Sand! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
We now see signs of deflation everywhere except of course in the news where they still insist in talking about the possibility of inflation. On Friday we saw that a drop in gasoline prices dragged producer prices down in April by the most in six months, according to data released by the government on Friday. The Labor Department said producer prices fell a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in April to mark the biggest decline since October. The unadjusted 12-month rise of 1.9% in the rate of wholesale-level inflation was the weakest since October 2009. Energy prices tumbled 1.4% on the month due to a reversal of a recent spike in oil prices as well as continued weakness in natural-gas prices. Prices of intermediate goods, which are partly processed items like flour or lumber, shrank 0.5%, which also was the largest drop since October. Prices of crude materials like raw cotton, grains and crude petroleum tumbled 4.4%. Besides energy, other notable drops came from corn, which dropped 5.6%, and scrap aluminum, which skidded 6.4%.
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Monday, May 14, 2012
Global Stock Markets Turmoil on the Way? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Stock Markets around the world have been on a roller coaster ride for the past couple of weeks. Poor market sentiments does not augur well for the markets either. From the oil embargo in the Middle East to the debt crisis woes in Europe added more volatility to the already fragile markets.
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Monday, May 14, 2012
Stocks Bear Market Focus Point: Bull Trap confirmed – Six weeks is a long time for a Banker / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Recent ““errors, sloppiness and bad judgment” by JP Morgan have shown the world that the D-Word genie, after sleeping off its last travail into an “unsuspecting” financial world has escaped again, to wreak havoc on our loving and ever too trusting bankers. Of course this begs the obvious question – if the highly technically advantaged JP Morgan can stuff up their dealings with derivatives so easily, surely this can happen to others as well – which beggars the question of who shall be next? The very nature of greed combined with huge amounts of cheap money, the continuing lack of open and honest disclosure and targeted and effective regulation, means that it is only a matter of time before history repeats itself. And as long as governments lack the will to enforce these measures, you can be sure that bankers will continue to find ways to persevere with their high risk ways.
Monday, May 14, 2012
Stock Market Line In The Sand About To Be Tested / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The intermediate uptrend is still intact and so is the extended short-term correction.
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Sunday, May 13, 2012
Stock Value and Dividends at Wall Cycle Lows / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
In light of the top of the multi-decade bull market and the recurring bear market massacres since the top, investors are increasingly jaded and skeptical. Stocks need to deliver an acceptable dividend stream to satisfy the growing investor preference for income. Investors want value for their money and that means sustainable dividend income at the right price. Combining the principles of value investing with market cycle tracking allows investors to identify value and the most opportune times to buy it.
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Sunday, May 13, 2012
Stock Market Perched on the Edge / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Another great week of volatility, which is what traders want to trade, although we are perched now on the edge and an important choice needs to be made, very similar to what happened last year around this time.
I left readers with this chart from last weeks' article
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Sunday, May 13, 2012
Stock Market Downtrends Continue / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
The US market gapped down at the open on monday to SPX 1364. Then proceeded to make lower downtrend lows but rebounded to that level, or 2 points higher, every day this week. It was a somewhat volatile week with a range between SPX 1343 and 1374. In the end the SPX/DOW lost 1.5%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.8%. Foreign markets were mixed with the DJ World index down 2.1%, Asia down 3.5%, and Europe up 0.3%. Economic reports for the week remained on the downside with negatives outpacing positives 6 to 4. On the uptick: consumer credit, a budget surplus, consumer sentiment and the WLEI. On the downtick: wholesale inventories, export/import prices, the PPI, plus jobless claims rose and the trade deficit widened. Next week there are reports on housing, the CPI, industrial production and the FOMC minutes. Best to your week!
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Sunday, May 13, 2012
Stock Market Forecast for Coming Week / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Probably this is the first time that world financial market is feeling the heat of Greek election. Election result in France was not problematic for market but post election situation in Greece is getting too much complicated. Investors were eagerly looking to get positive information from Greece but they were disappointed with the outcomes, in fact still there is no outcome. Market is calculating on different options, especially after remark from German finance minister.
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Sunday, May 13, 2012
Stock Market Short-term Intra-day Forecasts Free Access / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Dear Reader,
Virtually every minute of every trading day, all eyes – including mine – are on Wall Street, the financial epicenter of the world.
As a professional technical market analyst, I keep my finger on the pulse of the DJIA, S&P and Nasdaq, giving you the updates in the time frame that's important to short-term equity traders.
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Saturday, May 12, 2012
Plunging Commodity Prices Are Ominous For Stock Market! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Consumers understandably like to see prices for commodities decline, the more the merrier, particularly gasoline and energy costs.Many analysts also take commodity price declines as a positive for the economy, on the theory that consumers will have more spending money in their pockets, and manufacturers will have lower costs, so hopefully greater earnings.
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Friday, May 11, 2012
Europe: Big Problems Remain For Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
In December 2011, the European Central Bank (ECB) attempted to paper over the debt crisis. As noted by the Wall Street Journal on April 18, “Europe’s bold program to defuse its financial crisis by injecting cash into the banking system is running out of steam”.
Since the credit markets in Spain and Italy have shown renewed signs of strain, the timing for elections in France and Greece was less than ideal for policymakers. On Friday morning, there were rumblings from Europe giving some basis for optimism to the post-election situation in Greece.
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Friday, May 11, 2012
Stock Market 'Sell in May, and Go Away,' Strikes Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Mark Twain, one of America's most famous literary icons, and known for his folksy humor, used to say, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme."
On Wall Street, it's been the "least loved Bull market" in history. Since the start of 2008, there's been a massive exodus of more than $400-billion from mutual funds that invest in US companies, after the biggest and scariest plunge this generation of investors has ever seen. Yet at the same time, the current Bull market, that's grown up in the shadow of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, is the seventh best percentage gainer in market history. It's also the first Bull market to double in value in less than three years. Despite its impressive résumé, this Bull market gets little respect from retail investors. It's considered to be a bubble that's artificially inflated by the Federal Reserve's cheap money policies. Spooked investors prefer to be clear of the maniacal stock market, before the grizzly Bear arrives.
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Thursday, May 10, 2012
Stock Market Crash Like in 1987 If Stocks Rally Without QE3 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, spoke with Bloomberg TV's Betty Liu and said that, "I think the market will have difficulties to move up strongly unless we have a massive QE3 and if it moves and makes the high above 1422, the second half of the year could witness a crash, like in 1987."Faber went on to say that, "I do not have a high opinion of the U.S. government, but the bureaucrats in Brussels make the government in the U.S. look like an organization consisting of geniuses."
Thursday, May 10, 2012
How to Trade the VIX: Using the "Fear Gauge" to Hedge Down Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Don Miller writes: If you don't know already, it's time to learn something all serious investors should know: how to trade the VIX Indicator (VIX).
While most investors are scrambling to figure out whether the market is headed up or down, savvy pros use the VIX both as means of protection and a source of profit.
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Thursday, May 10, 2012
Dow Stock Index Reverses at Andrews Median Line / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
The ECB is opening the checkbook to protect their bond purchases in Greece and all is well again. With Bonds , the Russell index and SPY showing reversal signals the down move is probably over.
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Thursday, May 10, 2012
Stocks Bear Market Focus Point: Bull Trap confirmed – Following the leaders / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Bull Traps at major market peaks are defined by failed upside breakouts. These short lived breakouts usually coincide with unrealistic and often delusional and ill-informed expectations of the future – hence the name. It is no accident that these emotional times also coincide with peak optimism and volume, not necessarily for the markets as a whole, but certainly for the market leaders. In this case it’s Apple.
And if this is really THE BULL TRAP pertaining to the peak of the current three year market top in equities and commodity prices, then price falls morphing into a full scale breakdown and a continuation of the bear market that more or less started in 2000, may become the new reality.
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Wednesday, May 09, 2012
Q.E.3 IS COMING! Stock Market MAP Analysis Part 4 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
In Parts 1 thru 3 we established that the principles of MAP Waves is nothing new and I claim no credit for it. It is actually the first step and foundation of all EW theory which rarely is referred to, and even more rarely used by many of the experts around us.
So let us revisit the basic basic EW practical lesson 1 - what lines to draw and what information we can derive from them to establish with probable potential pivots target areas which meet EW wave validation criteria.
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Tuesday, May 08, 2012
VIX Ready to Rocket, Stock Market Ready to Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Here’s another piece of evidence that the VIX may be going considerably higher. It nudged against an inverted Head & Shoulders neckline that targets 28.46 as a minimum advance and is pulling back for the breakout. Should this neckline be broken, as I believe it will, this becomes an argument for a much steeper decline in SPY/SPX in a third wave. The bounce that I had modeled for SPY is getting modified below..
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Tuesday, May 08, 2012
Stock Market Hangs In, But By A Thread / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
As summed up by Reuters below, the situation in Greece remains fragile:
Read full article... Read full article...Radical Leftist Alexis Tsipras began efforts to form a Greek government on Tuesday by renouncing the terms of an international bailout and threatening to nationalize banks in a statement likely to reduce his chances of success. His uncompromising stance may lower already slim chances of forming a coalition by scaring off the former ruling parties New Democracy and socialist PASOK, while further unsettling jittery investors.
Tuesday, May 08, 2012
Best Stock Market Performer This Year May Surprise Investors / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Since the stock market's gate opened at the beginning of 2012, emerging countries were off to a fast start. Stocks in Brazil, Colombia and India galloped to the lead, increasing more than 10 percent within the first few weeks of the year.
By the time the end of April came around, Colombia had sprinted to the lead, followed closely by Thailand and the Philippines. All increased more than 20 percent in the first four months of 2012.
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