Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Stocks Bear Market Targets / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
There's time and there's price. If you believe, like I do, that a deflationary wipe-out must occur before further cancerous U.S. Dollar debasement (oops, I mean green shoots) can, then you should also believe that this cyclical bear market in general equities ain't gonna take much longer if history is a guide. Most such wipe-outs take 2.5-3.5 years. We're already 1 year and 8 months into this bear market and I personally count the last 7 months (since November panic lows) as one big expanded zig zag correction.
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Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Stocks Suffer Again As Financials Take The Strain / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
On the day, the S&P lost 1.27% and now sits 4.6% below its recent high of 956. The rot set in with disappointing results from electronics retailer Best Buy but it was financials that bore the brunt of the selling pressure. All this on news that news that the Obama administration plans to create a quango called the Consumer Financial Protection Agency. This will in theory help protect consumers’ credit, savings and other banking transactions.
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Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Stock Market Downside Follow Through Breaks Some Key Support Levels / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The stock market indices closed at the lows for the day going away after an early rally attempt failed. It was the second down-day in a row, as the downside follow-through broke some key levels, and the indices had some key rally failures early on near resistance.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Have Stock Markets Run Away from Reality? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The predictions of the members of the Barron’s mid-year Roundtable discussion over the weekend were in agreement that the March lows of the stock markets would not be broken. This reminded me of one of the famous “Investment Rules” of Bob Farrell, legendary former chief stock market analyst at Merrill Lynch. Rule # 9 stated: “When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else is going to happen.”
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Tuesday, June 16, 2009
The Coming Stock Market Crash: Time to Review / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Yesterday this analyst had the bizarre experience of watching two consecutive and conflicting items on the evening Television news:1. A well respected economic forecasting organization is expecting Australian domestic real estate prices to rise by around 19% over the coming three years.
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Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Fear Returns To Stalk Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
In their biggest fall since April 20th, equity markets retreated yesterday. Investors feared that the state-sponsored green shoots would shrivel, faced with the implicit threat from the G8 that central banks and governments were thinking of taking away the punch bowl of ZIRP and massive fiscal stimuli hammering the reflation trade. Policy makers now look set to repeat the errors of the late 1930’s. The Greenback also went on the rampage on the back of soothing comments from Russia taking the shine of the commodities / metals / oil trade while VIX popped up 10% on the day.
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Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Stocks Bear Market Rally is Over / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Done. Finito. Put a fork in it. Be short or be out of the way if you're an intermediate-term trader. Forget commodities and forget inflation. The next bear leg down in the stock and commodities market is here. Yes, it is possible that there could be an up day in stocks and commodities tomorrow, but I believe the intermediate-term top for the stock market is in and that a full on resumption of the bear market has begun.
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Tuesday, June 16, 2009
"Stock Shock" Movie Exposes Wall Sreet Corruption and Inept Regulation / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
“STOCK SHOCK” is the movie sending shock-waves through America’s financial centers, exposing the dark underbelly of America’s worst stock market sharks, laying out the sordid financial schemes that led to America’s economic collapse in early 2009.
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Monday, June 15, 2009
Manipulated Bond & Stocks Markets / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
As suspected last week, mutual and hedge fund managers could not resist the temptation to push stocks higher in month end window dressing given the opportunity, so they did. And I wouldn’t doubt for a minute the bureaucracy’s price managers were told to make stocks look good at week’s end because of Geithnier’s trip to China, where he is on his first official US paper selling junket. There’s really no other explanation for why stocks mysteriously surged at the close on Friday due to futures buying. (Later Monday we found out it was broker related buying to aid their secondary issues the following week.)
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Monday, June 15, 2009
Stock Market S&P 500 Valuation With Normalized Earnings / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
There are many institutional S&P 500 forecasts in the media for 2009, generally ranging from 850 to 1100 with some outliers on each side, but seldom is the underlying detail provided. One of the more common methods of estimation involves normalization of earnings times a reasonable multiple based on history.
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Monday, June 15, 2009
The Plunging Economy Vs. The Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Larry Edelson writes: If you’re like the average investor, you’re probably wondering how can stocks rally when the economy continues to sink?
How, too, can commodities — especially oil — surge when unemployment continues to rise and businesses are shutting their doors left and right?
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Monday, June 15, 2009
Stocks Bull Market or Bear Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Martin Hutchinson writes: Since sinking to a 12-year low of 676.53 on March 9, the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index had risen 24% — the best such short-term rally since 1933. But this isn’t 1933 and you shouldn’t trust the rally. Happy Days are NOT here again, at least not yet.
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Monday, June 15, 2009
Stock Markets Tread Water Amidst Low Volumes / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
The market eked out another few hard yards last Friday, ending up 28 points to move back into positive territory for the year to date. An early technical systems hitch had depressed volumes. Bank of America was the big winner after a broker upgraded their price target to $22 and also expected them to fully repay TARP funds by the end of 2010. Tech stocks and commodity-related equities were weaker on a fall in crude prices. Although we’ve seen a couple of decent attempts to break out, we remain deadlocked in the same trading range we’ve been in since the first day of June. Indeed according to Bloomberg, the S&P 500 hasn’t posted a daily rise or fall of 1% or more since June 4.
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Monday, June 15, 2009
Stock Index Intra-day Trading 4-days in June and a Personal Story of Tribute / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
We have dedicated this article to that extremely rare breed of fearless modern-day swashbuckling warriors also known as day traders. It also includes a rather personal tributary story about one such warrior who is no longer with us.
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Monday, June 15, 2009
Stocks Bear Market Rally Running Out of Steam Reversal Imminent / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles have taken over and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until 2012-2014. This would imply that much lower prices lie ahead.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The counter-trend rally which started on March 6 is still up, but losing momentum. Red flags are appearing in the A/D and the sentiment indicator. These are signals that normally precede a reversal.
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Sunday, June 14, 2009
Stocks and Commodities Rally In the Direction of Economic Recovery Whilst Bonds Retreat / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
“Words from the Wise” this week comes to you in a shortened format as “day-job” responsibilities precludes me from doing a comprehensive commentary. However, a full dose of excerpts from interesting news items and quotes from market commentators is provided.
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Sunday, June 14, 2009
Stock Market Dumb Money Indicator Giving Way to New Extremes / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
Investor sentiment continues on the same path as the two previous weeks as the "Dumb Money" indicator is moving to new bullish extremes. Typically, this is a bearish signal.
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Sunday, June 14, 2009
Stock Market Range Bound, Waiting for Something to Happen / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
I imagine it could but it would have to be a very unique situation to be more boring than this market is right here. I mean, it's not as if we're trading in a large range. The S&P 500 range is 923-950. Neither one wants to break. The daily charts are technically set up to fall with the highly compressed MACD's and the nasty divergences across the board. There is no theoretical timetable for when a market should fall based on these conditions, but the set up is there. What we're seeing, unfortunately, is a market that is teasing both sides near term. We get gap after gap and each one is met with real hope by whomever is fortunate to have it working in their favor.
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Sunday, June 14, 2009
Stock Market Summer Seasonal Correction About to Kick Into Gear / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The good news is: The blue chip indices hit multi month highs last week.
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Sunday, June 14, 2009
Mega Trends Suggest Investors Being Over Weight Emerging Markets / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Everybody has a different stock / bond /cash allocation that is best for them. Whether the selected equity allocation is high or low, we think over-weighting emerging markets and under-weighting developed markets within the allocation is the better long-term strategy for long-term investors — except for investors currently relying on, or about to rely on, their portfolios for life style support for whom the volatility may not be appropriate.
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