Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, February 28, 2023
Current State of the Stocks Stealth Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow closed Monday at 33,629 vs the trend forecast road map of 32,750, so the Dow continues to show a positive deviation against the forecast of +2.7%, up from the +2.2% deviation as of 9th of Jan.
- Stocks Bear Market Max PAIN - Trend Forecast Analysis to Dec 2023 - Part1
- Stock Market Analysis and Trend Forecast Oct 2022 to Dec 2023
Sunday, February 26, 2023
Stock Market Every thing Every Where All At Once! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Virtually everyone was open jawed last week as to why the hell are stock prices soaring on BAD EARNINGS reports and yes regardless of how the headless chickens on the cartoon network (CNBC) were reacting in trying to explain the price action they were BAD EARNINGS reports as flagged by the EGF's which had zero impact on stock prices that instead of plunging soared into the stratosphere, why? It's because earnings reports are looking in the rear view mirror at what has already happened which is why one needs to be aware of current EGF and future EGF as well as current P/E relative to the high-low P/E range for each stock as shown in my AI stocks table. Our perception of time is not linear as we flit from the past (memories) into the future (forecasts, hopes and dreams) and back into the present, in a constant state of flux and so it is for all market participants which is the true nature of the markets, everything, everywhere all at once.
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Monday, February 20, 2023
Stock Market US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Did you catch the Pump into last weeks US CP LIE data followed by the Dump? What happen's next - Stock Market Counting Down to Pump and Dump US CPI LIE Inflation Data Release
The Santa rally that runs for 7 trading days into the start of each new year expired on the 4th of January and believe it or not technically we actually got a Santa rally, the 7th straight Santa rally in a row.
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Monday, February 20, 2023
Silent Killers of Stock and Bond Investors 50+ / Stock-Markets / Investing 2023
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently I was shocked after speaking with five different investors on the phone. These investors have been involved in the markets for many years, and they trade their accounts. Surprisingly, not a single one of them knew what drawdowns were, as there are two types. In short, it is how we gauge an overall investment strategy’s risk level so you know if a given approach fits within your risk tolerance.
I did a survey several years ago that still blows my mind because the results were so backwards and frustrating. To this day, I’m experiencing the same thing with traders and investors, so I want to talk about it here – drawdowns and what you may not know about them.
A drawdown measures how much an investment or trading account is down from its highest point. It is used to quantify the extent of loss suffered by an investor or trader during a period of market decline. A drawdown is expressed as a percentage. Also, the maximum drawdown (MaxDD) is the largest percentage drop from the account’s highest point to its lowest point over the life of the strategy, which in laymen’s terms, is the largest loss.
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Sunday, February 19, 2023
The Truth No One Wants to Hear about Stocks / Stock-Markets / Investing 2023
By: Submissions
By Justin Spittler : I’ve been getting under some people’s skin.And it’s because I’ve been unapologetically bullish for the last couple months.
I get it. No one wants to hear the bull argument after the horrible year we just had in stocks.
But things have changed.
Many investors haven’t entertained the possibility that last year’s bear market is over.
They’re certain the stock market will head much lower.
Their arguments sound something like: “Inflation is still too high; the economy is speeding toward a recession; the Fed isn’t done raising rates.”
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Saturday, February 18, 2023
S&P Stock Market FOMO Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst the Dow has raged higher off its October low unfortunately our portfolios are far more in tune with the S&P which has under performed the Dow to significant degree. However the good news is that the S&P tends to outperform the Dow during bull markets so will catchup to and pass the Dow during 2023.
The S&P soared through 3900 running the stops sucking the S&P higher to 3953 as I flagged it would well ahead of the break higher in the comments section of the last posted article. So do check the comments section as I continue to provide patrons with my short-term view on a near daily basis as well as doing my utmost to answer patron queries. Also note, the Patreon app does not always show all of the charts so it is best to access the Patreon via a browser either from your phone, tablet or desktop PC rather than the from the ap.
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Saturday, February 18, 2023
Stock Market US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Apparently everyone assumes that a recession during 2023 is a done deal! However an analysis of recessions in terms of the US presidential election cycle suggests that a recession during 2023 is a very low probability event and that the actual recession may not materialise until 2024.
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Tuesday, February 14, 2023
Stock Market Sowing the Seeds for the Most Unexpected Bull Run in History / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market Sowing the Seeds for the Most Unexpected Bull Run in History
The Santa rally that runs for 7 trading days into the start of each new year expired on the 4th of January and believe it or not technically we actually got a Santa rally, the 7th straight Santa rally in a row.
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Tuesday, February 14, 2023
Stock Market PUMP ahead of US CPI LIE Inflation Data Release DUMP / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US CPI Data released for October, November, December and January show the CPLIE script of usually a fake out drop ahead or on release followed by strong rally on relief that whatever the data is, it was not quite as bad as it could have been and thus triggers a FOMO rally fed by bears shorting during the preceding decline rushing to cover their shorts, and so are we in for a similar event Tuesday? or is this time going to be more like December, the only time when there was a deviation from the script as it was looking rather obvious by then and hence the market did the opposite, what is obvious right now? Probably a FOIMO rally, so on face value suggests to expect the opposite which is what I have been positioning towards these past weeks.
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Wednesday, February 08, 2023
S&P500, Gold, Silver and Crypto's Trend Forecasts 2023 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In terms of my stock market trend forecast the Dow by now would be trading at approx 32,500 vs actual last close of 33,203 for a +0.9% deviation, imagine if someone told you where the Dow will be in 3 months time and by that time the Dow is within 1% of the forecast price, so the forecast is proving to be an accurate road map against which to measure relative strength or weakness.
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Wednesday, February 08, 2023
Clown Cramer META is FINISHED at $100 on CNBC Cartoon Network at Mother of Tech Stocks Buying Opps! / Stock-Markets / Mainstream Media
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Wonder why you did not buy META when the stock was trading down to UNDER $100! It is because it is not easy to buy stocks when they are dirt cheap unless one has a plan, already has a list of target stocks to buy and BUY THEM WHEN CHEAP! BUY THEM WHEN BLOOD IS POURING OUT OF ONES EYES at the draw downs they are generating! BUY THEM when MSM are SAYIING they are now DEAD stocks! As clown Cramer was saying during October, DO NOT BUY TECH STOCKS this clown was spouting as I and hopefully many patrons were catching the many falling knives during Octobers bloodbath, Clown Cramer on the CNBC Cartoon network was stating that the tech stocks were finished, META was finished at $100 per share! When it WAS the mother of all buying opps! CNBC IS the CARTOON NETWORK!
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Saturday, February 04, 2023
Stocks Broke Higher, Will S&P 500 Go to 4,200? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Paul_Rejczak
The S&P 500 index gained 1.05% on Wednesday, as it broke above the 4,100 level and some previous local highs following the FOMC interest rate decision announcement. Recently the broad stock market’s gauge was extending its bounce from January 19 local low of 3,885.54.Stocks will likely open 0.7% higher this morning after quarterly earnings, economic data releases. So the market will extend an uptrend, and the S&P 500 may get closer to the important 4,200 level. It went the highest since late August of 2022 yesterday, as we can see on the daily chart:
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Tuesday, January 31, 2023
Market Wake Up Call / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 did a fakeout yesterday, and closed on a weak note. Nothing sectorally enouraging, and even the mere comparison of Russell 2000 to emerging markets downswings reveals that more is to come today – extending also to real assets. Monday and Tuesday volatility are to turn out higher than I would appreciate, and illustrate the degree to which markets ran with the unreasonable optimism during Fed blackout.
Quoting yesterday‘s not to miss analysis:
(…) The rumor is still being bought, and selling the news would be overcome. The Fed would of course go with 25bp while not commiting to 50bp Mar (25bp are practically baked in the cake, and when I look at the short end of the curve and various yield spreads, I agree with that. The Fed will try to talk some good restrictive game, and will do its best to keep rates at restrictive levels for as long as possible, but Fed funds rate at 5% appears as sound estimate before recession rubber meets the road in Q2 2023.
Tuesday, January 31, 2023
Here's a Strong Indication That the Stocks Bear Market Has Legs / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
This is what investors look for at or near a stock market low
Elliott Wave International's analysts have been observing financial markets for decades. They monitor dozens of stock market indicators, in addition to Elliott wave patterns.
No single indicator can tell the whole story of what's going on with the market, but sometimes, a single observation can carry a lot of weight.
One current observation is that many investors are still looking for reasons to be bullish, even though stocks have been in a downtrend for more than a year. In other words, they think the bear market is over.
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Monday, January 30, 2023
Stock Market Big Week Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 charge higher continued, and high beta plays didn‘t disappoint. Energy, financials, Russell 2000, emerging markets – all on fire. After Thursday‘s climb of bear market rally wall of worry (we‘re rather to meet recession and not soft landing – the contraction will be mild till Q3 2023), we‘re in for a daily deceleration today as I don‘t think yesterday‘s complacency would last till the closing bell.
The weakness will likely show up in bonds first, underpinning the dollar – and the rest would be history. All on a daily basis – you can look forward for extensive pre-FOMC analysis next week!
Monday, January 30, 2023
Riding the Stock Market FOMO Rally in Tech Stocks - Investing 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market FOMO rally us underway, were you already fully invested months ago or have you been watching too much of CNBC cartoon network and are thus sat on the sidelines or worse FOMO-ing in right now, here's how I am riding the FOMO rally off the October 2022 low.
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Tuesday, January 24, 2023
Stock Market on the Launch Pad for Post CPI To the Moon Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Santa's Stock Market sledge is on the launch pad, t-minus 2 hours to go until release of November CPI data at 1.30pm UK time. Octobers release was 7.7%, consensus for November is for 7.3%, and 6,1% for Core CPLIE. A quick review of the monthly data suggests to expect CPI of 7.4%, so whilst not a beat would be a relief that CPLIE is at it's lowest since November last year, so would be taken as a cue for SANTA to deliver the last leg of the rally off the October low that has already achieved my base case target of 4100 thus should set the scene for the over shoot phase to at least 4160, with ample time to propel stocks for an assault on S&P 4200, break of which we would send stocks into the FOMO phase that would target a break of the August high of 4316 which has basically been my view for over month.
Therefore my expectations are for Santa to take the rally a notch higher north of 4100, for an over shoot to about 4160, beyond which is the 4200 barrier above which FOMO froth, that could be triggered by CPI of 7.2% or lower, though that is not what the actual data suggests toe expect, i.e. 7.3% or 7.4% looks more probable. Still it is good to remember that the S&P has already had a 17.7% bull run off it's MId October low of 3481 to it's recent high of 4100, so to achieve 4160 and above would be the icing on the cake. Swing projections that have proven reliable concur with this outlook by projecting to 4340 into the end of the year.
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Thursday, January 19, 2023
Stock Market Changing Bias / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 didn‘t take kindly to deteriorating data – after a long time, bad news was indeed taken as bad news. The pivot hopes are receding, and recession prospects come to the fore, which was the subject of Tuesday‘s extensive analysis.
The turn in sentiment was fast, however our long S&P 500 and copper gains were protected by tightened stop-losses, taking the model portfolio significantly higher - .above $280K from $50K starting Jan 2021 (check my homepage for descriptions - no slippage, commissions, taxes. Past performance is no guarantee of future results).That‘s the proper long-term view with odds heavily in your favor through diligent analytics!
Wednesday, January 18, 2023
State of the Global Stock and Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: EWI
Hi,
FACT: Most mainstream market pundits were BULLISH THE WORLD at the start of 2022.
FACT: CASH outperformed stocks AND bonds AND cryptos AND gold AND real estate in 2022.
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Monday, January 16, 2023
Stock Market SEASONAL ANALYSIS Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, higher into late April, then correct from early May into late June followed by a volatile summer terminating in a swing low during September that should set the scene for a bull run into the Christmas Holidays with of course intra month volatility during October that resolve to the upside just as the perma-bears are crowing at their loudest that the end is neigh.
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