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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Monday, October 31, 2022

US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

What to know what tends to drive the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).

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Stock-Markets

Monday, October 31, 2022

Sentiment Speaks: Amazon Killed The Stock Market On Friday / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Avi_Gilburt

It really is entertaining watching people. Whether I am sitting outside in a public area and "people-watching" with my wife, whether I watch how people react to the market in the articles on Seeking Alpha (and that includes the writers and commenters), or whether I watch how people react even within the virtual walls of my own services, people are very interesting and their emotional responses are even more so.

We had a very interesting week this past week. And, it again outlined for me that people simply cannot overcome their emotions, especially when it comes to the stock market. So many of you are following the CPI, unemployment, GDP, etc. Yet, none of that has helped you on this rally. If anything, it has made you miss this 12% rally over the last two weeks. And, when the Amazon earnings came out, many of you were sure the market would surely drop.

Yet, as the market was developing a near term topping structure on Wednesday and Thursday, my primary analysis to the members of ElliottWaveTrader was suggesting the strong potential for a pullback before we continued higher to the 3900+ region, which was my next target for the SPX.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, October 30, 2022

Can the Stock Market Hold Lows Despite Spiking Yields and Dollar Panic Buying? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

To break the June Low or not to break the June low, that is the question?

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, October 26, 2022

Europe's Energy Sector: "The Lehman Moment Just Arrived" / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022

By: EWI

This company's stock price "broke a support shelf that dates back 14 years"

Back in October 2021, two months before Germany's DAX hit an all-time high, our Global Market Perspective showed a big jump in references to "Lehman" in Bloomberg News.

Of course, the use of "Lehman" in a news article has become synonymous with the collapse of the then financial giant during the depths of the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

The October 2021 Global Market Perspective, an Elliott Wave International monthly publication which covers 50-plus worldwide financial markets, said:

The Lehman moment will come later, after investor optimism has receded and stock prices are well off their highs.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, October 25, 2022

Inflation and Interest rates Implications for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

So inflation is not going significantly lower anytime soon, interest rates are still trending higher which does not bode well for the outlook for stocks. And then on top of that we have a weakening economy, STAGFLATION! Definitely not a time for investors to contemplate gambling on no earnings, even high multiples growth stocks. For the indices, it means downwards price pressure and then followed by a trading range..

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, October 25, 2022

Fate of Stock Market Q4 Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Sumeet_Manhas

S&P 500 turnaround was driven by the WSJ article that painted 75bp Nov and 50bp Dec hikes as some kind of a pivot, when it‘s not even a pause. While I had been for weeks of the opinion that this is the most likely route they‘ll take, markets have started favoring 75bp in Dec, and its possibility has been on Friday dialed back to 50% only. That‘s hardly a pause or pivot to me, but the speculation was enough to carry risk-on sentiment reliably into the close.

What I am questioning is whether sustainable bottoms can be made on such a news – even sustainable only in terms of giving rise to a reliable Q4 rally. Not when long-dated Treasuries still haven‘t found a bottom as foreigners are forced to sell in dramatic reversion of seemingly forever trade surpluses and high energy prices, which in case of natural gas can‘t be as regionally comparable as in oil. Together with the Fed balance sheet shrinking, this has implications for the debt markets, which I discussed both in mid Sep and in the above linked article.

The turn in junk bonds is fine for the bulls, but similarly to the S&P 500, it‘s still characterized by a pattern of lower highs after the summer rally fizzled out. It‘s only the Russell 2000 which has managed to keep above the Jun lows – and that confirms the rightful conclusion that the U.S. are best positioned at the moment still to weather the storm. What has become concerning on Friday though, is the dollar‘s daily session – not even sharply higher yields have worked to keep it afloat.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, October 23, 2022

Stock Market Choppy But Bearish / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 turned once again decisively lower yesterday, and the slow grind to the upcoming local bottom continues on rising volume – and that‘s good. Crucially, bonds continued supporting the move – as the key trio on my watch (those always shown in bond charts), reversed intraday. Higher yields are generally supportive of the dollar, and put pressure especially on precious metals, no surprises here (been issuing mostly bearish daily outlooks in PMs for months already), with oil remaining relatively best insulated among commodities.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, October 23, 2022

The Fed is forced to pay you to Stay Safe / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: Gary_Tanashian

As the Fed fights the last war (on inflation) the result is a rare thing; a bear market haven called cash, paying increasing income

Safety Vehicles

Gold: For long-term financial security. Real gold, not ETFs, not allocated gold trusts that you can never actually possess (if you, like me, are not spectacularly wealthy) and certainly not gold mining equities.* Just gold. It’s so simple as to be overlooked by all too many, probably because it pays no income and just sits there over decades holding value.

Cash: Unlike other bear markets in equities over the last few decades when the Fed throttled savers with the likes of Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) at the first signs of trouble for asset owners, today’s Fed is commanded to clean up the mess it was primary in making during the last asset market bailout (H1, 2020), in a battle against inflation’s lagging indicators (e.g. CPI) and headlines (picture the public manning its pitchforks and torches) as cash pays increasingly higher income.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, October 22, 2022

US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

What to know what tends to drive the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, October 22, 2022

Here's Why This Stocks Bear Market is a "Global Story" / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: EWI

"The decline started in emerging market stocks way back in February 2021"

A widely accepted measure of a bear market is a drop of 20% or more in a major index from an all-time high.

By that measure, both the S&P 500 index and the Dow Industrials have entered bear market territory since their January peaks.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, October 22, 2022

4 Best Investment Plans for Medium Term / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022

By: Mark_Adan

Medium-term goals can be a great motivator. They can give you something to focus on in the present moment and help you to stay on track. However, it is important to choose an investment option that will not be too volatile. This way, you can be sure that your money will be there when you need it. Some of the most common medium-term goals include saving for your wedding or down payment of a house. If you're wondering what the best investment options are that will help you achieve your medium-term goals, this list should help. Find the best trading app UK here.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, October 21, 2022

Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Which brings us to this BEAR market where my strategy has been NOT to seek to buy the bottom because we will only ever see the bottom in hindsight, instead my strategy has been to buy deep discounts in target stocks which has transformed my portfolio from this in January 2022 -

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, October 20, 2022

Stock Markets WORST Month of the Year Could Deliver a Buying Opportunity / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

We have a Dogs dinner of a Tory government, waste of space Quasi Modo has gone, next will be Liz Trustless what a pair of idiots, Hunt as Chancellor is only good for reading scripts he gets given! Come on Boris come back, all is forgiven, what was the worst under Johnson? Parties, the media wasted thousands of hours of air time on parties! MSM Is an irrelevance, dumb, blind, completely clueless after all they are Journalists NOT analysts, they don't have a clue! Quasi has gone, so will Trussless and it could even be as soon as today! Definitely before the end of October, she will be GONE! GOOD RIDDANCE to Britain's worst Prime Minister ever! And paving the way for Britain's first brown Prime Minister!

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, October 18, 2022

Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

I must be a sucker for punishment to try and conclude my detailed 1+ year trend forecast at a time of maximum market uncertainty where major nations such as the UK are literally finding themselves on the brink of financial collapse! No really the UK financial system was a hairs breadth away from collapsing as it's pension funds that had GAMBLED ON INTEREST RATE DERIVATES with US rate hikes triggering a COLLAPSE in UK Bonds as Pension funds were forced to sell their most liquid assets, and the more UK bonds fell the more the pension funds were being forced to sell so as to meet MARGIN CALLS on their interest rate bets, which in effect was Britain's Lehman's moment prompting the Bank of England to BAIL THEM OUT by announcing that they would buy an UNLIIMITED amount of UK bonds so as to bring yields back down and thus push the capital value of Pension Funds UP so as to halt the forced selling that would have resulted in the Pensions funds defaulting and making the counterparty to their bets BANKRUPT! Yes you guessed it the BANKS BANKRUPT AGAIN! WALL STREET, LOMBARD STREET, CANARY WHARF, BERLIN! BANKRUPT! This is why whenever a patron mentions that the banks are cheap I tend to reply that you do know what they have gambled on until they explode!

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, October 16, 2022

Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here's why PE ratio's matter as the following chart shows the return 10 years forward from the starting average PE i.e if the stock market is trading on an average PE of 27 than can basically be expected to go nowhere for the next 10 years. Whilst the lower the PE the higher the expected return (on average), where the safe zone for investing is at a starting PE of between 10 and 20. Note graphs is as of September 2021, see below for updated ratios.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, October 16, 2022

Post-bubble Economic Contraction / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: Gary_Tanashian

“Post-bubble contraction” (PBC) as coined by Bob Hoye, may finally be at hand

Bob Hoye has been talking about a coming post-bubble contraction (PBC) for many years, in my experience. Now after many false starts, it may finally be in play on the wider macro picture. Past contractions (e.g. 2008 and 2020) have proven to be little more than precursors, triggers to new asset bubble phases because the Fed’s main macro manipulation tool, bonds, were in a multi-decade long trend of disinflationary signaling.

To this point with respect to the PBC, timing has been an issue. This is not a critique of Hoye, a fine financial historian and macro fundamental analyst. In fact, it is the opposite. It is from him that I learned the proper fundamentals for gold and especially the gold mining industry. But perfectly good deflationary meltdowns (of previous inflationary operations) were foiled in both 2008 and 2020.

Why were they foiled so effectively? Because the Federal Reserve and global central banks have for decades had a lenient bond market to fall back on (the fabled ‘bond vigilantes of yore apparently rode into a small town, hit the saloon and never again emerged… until 2022, that is). I have for many years now used the 30-year yield ‘Continuum’ (monthly 30yr yield chart, below) as a nice visual to the mechanics of the Fed’s macro-manipulative wheel house, the US Treasury bond market.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, October 15, 2022

Feeding the Stocks Bear Market Beast / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

For some reason most folk when looking at the charts focus on the high vs the low as if investors only buy and sell at the exact highs and lows, well maybe the mania herd bought near the highs last year to sell near the lows this year but most intelligent investors don't invest that way i.e. during the second half of last year, I sold down 80% of my AI tech stocks portfolio in advance of this bear market, including warning virtually within a few percent of the high to get ready for a bear market during 2022 and maybe even worse a crash! That was on the 5th of December 2021!

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, October 15, 2022

New Banking Crisis Looms as Fears of “Lehman Moment” Rise / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022

By: MoneyMetals

As new inflation data pushes the Fed toward continuing with rate hikes, precious metals markets are struggling to make headway.

On Thursday, the government released Consumer Price Index data for September. The so-called core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 6.6% from a year ago. That’s the highest core inflation reading since 1982.

Although prices at the pump have eased since the summer peak, other inflation components continue to rise. Housing, food, and medical care are currently among the biggest contributors to rising consumer prices.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, October 12, 2022

Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here's why PE ratio's matter as the following chart shows the return 10 years forward from the starting average PE i.e if the stock market is trading on an average PE of 27 than can basically be expected to go nowhere for the next 10 years. Whilst the lower the PE the higher the expected return (on average), where the safe zone for investing is at a starting PE of between 10 and 20. Note graphs is as of September 2021, see below for updated ratios.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, October 10, 2022

Stock Market Trend Current State of Play / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

S&P closed at 3680. trading to a low of 3633, June's low is 3622, so the 50% retracement studies conclusion so far remains in tact which implies that this decline is a bear trap, to be clear a trap for the bears all betting on a collapse into the abyss of 3,200 and below, fantasy numbers such as 3000 area being bandied around, and apparently Monday 26th is the end of the SHIEMITA when a big CRASH is due!, Note I don't for a minute take this nonsense seriously, anyway today's the last day of the SHEIMTA that was ironically brought to my attention in June near the bear market lows when there were shrill cries of SELL EVERYTHING NOW! In which case the Shemita folk are looking to break even today (in US dollars). To be clear SHIMTA is BS, but like all BS's there will be coincidences which with the benefit of hindsight will be twisted and turned into support of BS as will probably happen to this SHEIMITA where what it originally implied will be subverted with the benefit of hindsight, that's the case with religious mumbo jumbo, people actually do want to believe in the super natural! That ancient religious texts somehow have magic powers to predict what the stock market will do in 2022 which can only happen via a self fulfilling prophecy, i.e. if enough believe in it and act on it then yes it sort of comes true, which in fact is the basis of Technical Analysis, traders and algo's lock step acting on wiggly lines on the charts. A quick google shows that most of the major market CRASH events happened AFTER SHEMITA but for some reason SHEMITA claims jurisdiction over them as well i.e. 1987 Crash, 9-11 attack and so on,

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