Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, October 26, 2009
Stock Market Fun, Pi, Phi and Armstrong Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
Fun with market dates! I was reading Marty Armstrong today and decided to play with his 8.6 year cycle—3141 days to be exact.
Lets start our count from October 11th 2007 top.
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Stock Market Intra-Day Reversal Special Report / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Today's intraday reversal in the equities markets follows a pattern that has been established of late of selling into rallies. Key support levels have been broken to the downside and without a late day recovery a close below those levels will likely usher in a significant pullback.
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Not Inflation Or Deflation Or Even Stagflation But Speculation / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Call it what you want, the primary condition our condition is in is not inflation, or deflation, or even stagflation for that matter, although it’s much closer than the other two definitions in describing the macro. Why would the term stagflation better describe macro-conditions? Answer: Because the mature state of globalization that guarantees us a constant state of overproduction moving forward, which depresses prices, is being countered by monetary inflation, which has increased certain prices, but primarily only those under government influence, leaving the rest of the economy sluggish. And it gets worse when one realizes our fiat currency monetary system is also mature from this perspective as well, with gambling now the backbone of non-government activities within aged economies (US, Europe, etc.), which cannot go on indefinitely.
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Time for New Stock Market Leadership? / Stock-Markets / Economic Recovery
The market has rallied dramatically since the March 9 low, with the biggest beneficiary of this rally being low-quality companies.
This intuitively makes sense, given that companies with the most troubled outlooks are the ones most likely to have a strong recovery when the dire outcomes predicted at the bottom of the crisis failed to transpire.
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Valuation 101: How Warren Buffet Does It; And Brooksley Born Wanted It Done / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
A while back I caught a clip of Warren Buffet being interviewed by a rather tiresome over-bubbly television star; who brightly asked him a really-really profound question that the scriptwriter had obviously spent all night dreaming up:
“So Mr. Buffet, how do you know if something’s a good investment or not?”
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Calling a Stock Market Top / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
It ain’t over til it’s over, but as a speculating man, I’ve been betting that we’ve reached a market top in the U.S. and that that top may well be signaling the onset of a double dip U.S. recession in one to two quarters.
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Stock Market Hits Major Resistance at Gap / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Update on the SPY's one year gap ...
It was just a little over 1 year ago, October 3rd. of 2008, when the SPY gapped down sharply. That gapped remained open until October 15th when it was finally closed.
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Financial Markets Wedge Patterns Everywhere Means All Stocks May Sink / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
This is a follow on to my October 13th 2009 posting , British Pound A Major Disaster Just Waiting to Happen? and my market update on October 19th, and deals with the markets as they stood as of last trade Friday October 23rd.
USD – Cl 75.47 - Price moves on Friday suggest that the next couple of weeks will be important not only for the USD but for all markets. If the large downward wedges in the USD charts are indeed what they appear to be then we should soon see a sharp confirming break upside to at least 77 - 79 for the first move. Contrary to this, a break below the 75 support to say below 74 could change the whole scenario.
Monday, October 26, 2009
Second Guessing Commodity Trading Systems / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2009
Mechanical trading systems used in commodity trading if followed with discipline and patience can assist one in their quest for long term success. Many of these systems are based on trend following. One of the most positive aspects of mechanical commodity trading systems is that it helps commodity traders control their emotions ( or at least it should)
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Sunday, October 25, 2009
Road Map For Making a Fortune in Emerging Markets / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Chris Mayer writes: Two weeks ago, I returned from my second visit to the financial capital of India, the city of Mumbai (formerly Bombay).
On the first go-round, I was mainly in tourist mode and visited several other cities, too. This time, I spent a week here just working, meeting businessmen, and talking with investors.
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Stock Market Indicators Are Screaming SELL, But... / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles have taken over and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until 2014. This would imply that much lower prices lie ahead. This will not be a straight-down decline, but will consist of a series of intermediate-term rallies and declines until we have reached the low point.
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Stock Market Rydex Market Timers: All In (Again!) / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
The last time I used those words was on September 25, which marked a short term high in the S&P500. About a week later, a reasonable short term (trading) opportunity developed.
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Sunday, October 25, 2009
Financial Markets Waiting to Change Direction? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Britain's Great Depression caught the mainstream commentators and academic economists off guard (again), as the UK economy failed to grow by 0.2% in the third quarter as widely expected but rather contracted by another 0.4%. However the trend remains inline with my analysis and forecast of February 2009 that called for a low in the third quarter of 2009 followed by a small increase in GDP for the fourth quarter of 2009.
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Sunday, October 25, 2009
Fed Determined to Inflate Another Asset Bubble / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
There goes oil, surging past $80-a-barrel. That’s up 150 percent from the December low, in case you’re keeping score.
Gasoline? Wholesale prices are up more than 40 cents a gallon in just under a month …
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Sunday, October 25, 2009
Financial Crisis Hidden History, The Warning Frontline Video / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
In The Warning, veteran FRONTLINE producer Michael Kirk unearths the hidden history of the nation's worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. At the center of it all he finds Brooksley Born, who speaks for the first time on television about her failed campaign to regulate the secretive, multitrillion-dollar derivatives market whose crash helped trigger the financial collapse in the fall of 2008.
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Saturday, October 24, 2009
Stock Market Investor Sentiment Consistency And Credibility / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
This week's comments are about why I continue to present the same data on investor sentiment week after week. Some readers have suggested that this data has been of little value during this historic bull run, and so why keep showing it. I believe the data has been relevant, but for those who see otherwise, let's just agree to disagree for now.
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Saturday, October 24, 2009
A Brief Update on Equities and Gold / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
The bullish Dow theory trend change that occurred in association with the advance out of the March 2009 low still remains intact. Cyclically, the advance out of the March low also still remains intact. Intermediate-term, equities are overbought and I do see weakness on the horizon. The key to this materializing will be the downturn of my intermediate-term Cycle Turn Indicator.
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Saturday, October 24, 2009
Lateral Stock Market... Negative Divergences Abound... / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Wouldn't it be nice if the stock market would actually do something! Lateral has been the way for quite some time now. Lots of head fakes both ways but when you study things, the past month or so has seen the market grind up and down due to opposing forces from both the bullish side and the bearish side of the ledger. The bulls can talk quite a bit about what's being reported from our Government. I'm not saying they're reporting the absolute truth. I'm just saying what's being reported. Most of the economic news is favorable these days. It tells us the worst of things has passed on by.
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Saturday, October 24, 2009
Bernanke Says Financial Firms Should Pay for Bank Closings Costs Not Tax Pay / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke called on Congress to ensure that the costs of closing down large financial institutions are borne by the industry instead of taxpayers. The Fed chairman called for a “credible process” for imposing losses on the shareholders and creditors, saying “any resolution costs incurred by the government should be paid through an assessment on the financial industry.”
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Friday, October 23, 2009
Unexpected Stock and Commodity Market Moves Should Not Be Ignored / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
In the last two weeks, in Reflation Supported By Stocks, Commodities, and Oil, and Gold, Recessions, Bonds, and 1987, we hypothesized that recent bullish moves in gold, oil, and the CRB Index were evidence of successful "reflation" of asset prices via monetary and fiscal policy. This week, we can add copper and emerging markets to the bullish evidence list. From a fundamental perspective, the desire to hold copper is based on economic need (you want to make a product), and inflation protection (you want to own hard assets rather than paper currencies).
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