Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, November 28, 2011
Stock Market Wave 3 Or Corrective Wave B? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014.
SPX: Intermediate trend - An top was made at 1292. Future action will tell us if this is a resumption of the bear market, or another corrective wave.
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Sunday, November 27, 2011
Will Gold and Stocks Christmas Rally Be Like 2007 and 2008? / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
Thus far in 2011 the overall stock market movement has been much different from what we had in 2010. This year we have seen nothing but sideways to lower prices with wild price swings on a day to day basis. There just has not been any really solid trends to take advantage of this year. Instead we had to actively trade the oversold dips and sell into the overbought rallies to just pull money out of the market on a monthly basis. Last year we saw 3 major rallies that lasted several months making it easy for anyone who bought into the trend to make money if managed properly.
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Sunday, November 27, 2011
A Glimpse Into The Future Of The Stock Market And Dollar / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
The "accident" many have been waiting for has finally happened, and it’s called Europe. That doesn’t bode well for the U.S. stock market.
A lot of technical analysts and financial pundits are expecting a standard-issue Santa Claus Rally once a "solution" to Europe’s debt crisis magically appears. There will be no such magical solution for the simple reason the problems are intrinsic to the euro, the Eurozone’s immense debts and the structure of the E.U. itself.
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Sunday, November 27, 2011
Are Stocks Staring Into the Abyss? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Europe’s financial woes are serious. We believe the financial crisis will hit the fan starting in 2012 which will eventually lead to a political union of several major European nations, perhaps even a broader political union of western nations including Great Britain, the United States and Canada. It may be what results from developing global economic chaos. This is Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down underway from May 2nd, 2011, a dangerous Bear Market wave of long-term duration. Life will change by the time it finishes.
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Sunday, November 27, 2011
European Headlines Continue To Dominate Our Markets..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
There are no doubts about our trading days beginning with the futures over in Europe and ending with whether their markets will recover or not. Our markets continue to remain oversold on the short-term charts as they seem to stay focused on the headlines out of Europe. Unfortunately, the news out of the Euro-zone is never good news. There are bank problems, an inability to agree on solutions, yields rising, sentiment crumbling, and just no good news from anywhere about anything significant happening on any given day. It's beginning to cause the market to lose hope and faith, and trust that something good will be had anytime soon. Just like the average trader and investor, we all fear that financial disaster awaits us, and that the debt crisis spreading around the world will end unfavorably.
Sunday, November 27, 2011
Stock Market Downtrend Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Markets lost ground for the second week in a row this week as the SPX/DOW were -4.75% and the NDX/NAZ were -4.85%. Economic reports swung slightly to the negative. On the uptick: existing home sales, personal income, PCE prices and the WLEI. On the downtick: Q3 GDP, personal spending, durable goods orders, consumer sentiment and weekly jobless claims rose. Trading in the US was cut short to three and one half days due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Economic highlights next week include: The FED’s beige book, ISM and the monthly Payrolls report. Best to your week!
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Saturday, November 26, 2011
Stock Market Bears Still In Control / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The market spoke again and really stuck it to the bulls this week just gone, the bleed this week was a tough read I suspect for most, although we found it easy as it simply told us its intentions early enough to get us back into bear mode.
From last week's article I was 60-40 in favor of the bullish idea, and we were expecting a gap down on Monday towards the 1200-1190ES area, but we wanted to see a reaction. If you recall we wanted a reaction in those safety markets such as USD/CAD, ZB and DX etc. you never saw that.
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Saturday, November 26, 2011
European Banking Exposure to Bankrupt PIIGS Will Weigh on Financial Markets 2012 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
We took a list of the largest European banks by assets and compared their market cap, common equity, and total exposure to PIIGS debt (thank you for the bank statistics, EBA!). Then we calculated exposure to PIIGS debt (sovereign and private) as a percentage of the banks’ common equity.
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Saturday, November 26, 2011
Japan Stock Market Meltdown, Screaming From the Rooftops / Stock-Markets / Japanese Stock Market
I promise that for now, this is the last time I will comment on the Japanese stock market. I only feel the need to scream from the rooftops on this one because I am not seeing anyone else commenting on it, and I believe it is HUGELY important. The third (?) largest economy in the world is demonstrating conditions ripe for a stock market meltdown.
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Saturday, November 26, 2011
Something Investors Can Be Thankful For! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Headlines have been full of gloom and doom for some time; high unemployment, the housing industry in a depression, record government debt, governments dysfunctional, and on and on.Fear-mongers and ‘big picture’ theorists are having a field day with it all.
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Saturday, November 26, 2011
How Far Will the Stocks Bear Market Fall During the 2012? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The stock market's 17-month drop into March 2009 erased all the gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average since the late 1990s. That's a full decade's worth of gains.
And the two-week drop that ended August 9 basically wiped out all the gains from 2010 - 2011.
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Friday, November 25, 2011
The Secular Stocks Bear Market and Gold's A-Wave Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
I have decided to post the weekend premium report to the blog this week. In this report I'm going to take a look at what has transpired and what is likely to come, as the third leg down in the secular bear market begins to intensify.
Back in April of this year I warned investors to get out of stocks in their 401(k) accounts. At the time the dollar was moving into the timing band for a major three year cycle low. It has always been my expectation that the rally out of that major bottom would correspond with the stock market moving down into the third bear market leg of the secular trend that has been in place since 2000. As we now know the dollar did bottom in May of this year and that did correspond with the top of the cyclical bull market that began in March of 2009. It has also been my expectation that the next four year cycle low would occur in the fall of 2012, and that 2012 would be one of the worst economic years in human history.
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Friday, November 25, 2011
Europe's Red Tape Blues / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Plus ça Change.....
Another month, another Euro area country in the hot seat... Italy already had issues thanks to the buffoonery of its former Prime Minister and it’s now the target of bond vigilantes. No real surprises and no mystery about the steps the euro area countries have to take. What steps get taken and how forcefully is the issue as it has been for months. It’s still all politics.
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Friday, November 25, 2011
Stocks Bear Market Seasonals / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The general stock markets’ day-to-day price action utterly dominates individual stock sectors, including commodities stocks. So anything traders can do to better understand the forces driving the stock markets as a whole leads to better stock entries and exits universally. With this truth in mind, many speculators and investors wonder whether commodities-like seasonality also exists in the general stock markets.
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Friday, November 25, 2011
Stock, Gold, and Bond Markets Holiday Observations / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
The whole family is gathered here, and I haven’t heard so much laughter in a long time. We are also celebrating the arrival of a new granddaughter. I hope you all have much to be thankful for, too.
The VIX appears ready to break out of its diamond formation. This will likely be manifest by a strong surge above its October 3 high. The diamond formation is a classic reversal formation usually accompanied by strong volume once the breakout occurs.
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Friday, November 25, 2011
Stock Market End of Year Trading Strategies, Tax Loss Selling, Santa Claus Rally and January Effect / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Larry D. Spears writes: Before yesterday's Thanksgiving leftovers even got cold many U.S. consumers ventured out to catch the best Black Friday deals, already worried about how much this holiday shopping season will cost them.
But instead of fretting over how much you'll spend this year, now's the time to focus on how much more you can earn.
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Friday, November 25, 2011
Stock Market Breaks Support, Heading Lower / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
When I last sent out an article for public consumption we were talking about Greece and the potential for a wide spread problem in Europe. The G-20 was about to meet and there was wild anticipation that a EU “solution” to the sovereign debt crisis was finally at hand. By now we know that Europe has yet to do anything to alleviate the situation. In the US we learned two days ago that the “Super Committee” was a super bust. They weren’t able to agree on anything so a series of automatic cuts, to be implemented two years down the road, totaling US $1 trillion will take place. That’s a far cry from the US $3.7 trillion that they were aiming for and is typical of the political leadership on both sides of the pond.
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Thursday, November 24, 2011
Stock Market Thanksgiving Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
SHORT TERM: markets try to rebound from oversold levels, DOW (YM) -19
Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened higher and closed -0.20%. US index futures were higher, then lower overnight: SPX (ES) -0.75 and NDX (NQ) -3.75. The US market is closed for the holiday and will reopen tomorrow. Bonds lost 15 ticks, Crude gained 70 cents, Gold slipped $1.00, and the USD was lower.
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Thursday, November 24, 2011
Stock and Financial Markets Thanksgiving Thoughts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
What an ugly finish November is having!
We’ve been trying to get bullish with little success and, if we are not reversing tomorrow, I will be regretting the wasted time poking at bullish plays when we could have been going "wheeeee" on the slide.
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Thursday, November 24, 2011
Gold, U.S. Dollar, U.S. Treasuries, & China: Contrarian Investor Opportunities? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
“What I am about to say is true. But under this system we are not allowed to speak the truth… Lies are required to maintain political harmony… the Chinese regime is in a serious economic crisis – on the brink of bankruptcy… every province in China is Greece.” (emphasis added)
Larry Lang, Professor of Finance, Chinese University of Hong Kong
Widely Held Opinion about Emerging Markets has it that Asia in general, and China (with its 1.3 billion people) in particular, will be The Great Growth Engine, which prospers while the over-indebted U.S. and Eurozone languish in the Slough of Despond.
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