Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, September 22, 2020
Gold Price Overboughtness Risk / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has been consolidating high since early August, when it rocketed parabolic on colossal gold-ETF demand. That 6-week-old sideways drift has worked off some greed and overboughtness, but plenty still remains. So gold isn’t out of the woods yet for this essential sentiment-rebalancing selloff. With residual overboughtness still extreme, gold faces considerable downside risk heading into its biggest seasonal selloff.
Across the financial markets, absolute price levels usually don’t matter much in technical and sentimental terms. Though they are important fundamentally. Supply and demand always converge to drive prices to sustainable levels, and over time traders come to accept them as normal. But how fast prices surged or plunged to current prevailing levels is exceedingly important, greatly affecting their short-term staying power.
The faster prices soar, the more excited traders grow about chasing that profitable upside momentum. As their greed flares and morphs into euphoria, they throw increasing amounts of capital at the fast-climbing prices. But such big and aggressive buying is never sustainable for long. Soon greed sucks in everyone interesting in buying anytime soon, exhausting their capital firepower. The price peaks leaving only sellers.
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Monday, September 21, 2020
Silver Bulls Will Be Handsomely Rewarded / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth outlines the reasons he believes the price of silver will continue to rise. They say patience is a virtue.
Well, if anyone is virtuous these days, it has to be silver bulls.
They also say good things come to those who wait. I believe those good things will be coming…in spades.
Silver reached just shy of $50 back in April 2011. A decade later, we're still just barely above half that level.
But that's all about to change.
Since bottoming in March, gold has rocketed to a new all-time high near $2,070 in early August, up 40%.
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Monday, September 21, 2020
Fed Will Not Hike Rates For Years. Gold Should Like It / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The latest FOMC statement and economic projections signal are that the interest rates will stay at zero until the end of 2023. This is excellent for gold.Yesterday, the Fed issued a statement regarding the FOMC meeting, which was held from September 15-16. The US central bank kept the interest rates and the conditions of its quantitative easing unchanged. The chart below shows the levels of effective federal funds rate and the Fed’s balance sheet.
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Sunday, September 20, 2020
Crude Oil – A Slight Move Higher Has Not Reversed The Bearish Trend / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
At last, crude oil moved a bit higher, so you might be asking yourself if the trend has reversed or is this just a pause before the moves continue.
In short, we think the latter is much closer to the truth.
The fact remains that in a global and hyperconnected economy such as today, no market can sustain complete independence of the rest of the world. Crude oil, as the most versatile marketplace commodity, is not excluded from that reality.
Namely, the two markets that the black gold often looks up to the most are stocks and currencies. In today’s analysis, we’ll focus on the latter.
The black gold upswing has been relatively modest, and parallels with a similar pause in the USD Index. To validate this, let’s take a look at the following charts for more details.
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Saturday, September 19, 2020
Will Lagarde and Mnuchin Push Gold Higher? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The ECB held its monetary policy stance steady. Meanwhile, the U.S. fiscal deficit reached its all-time high. What does it all mean for the gold prices?On Thursday, the members of the Governing Council of the ECB met together to undertake monetary policy decisions. They decided to leave the interest rates and the conditions of the quantitative easing unchanged. This lack of action was widely expected, so attention shifted to the fresh economic projections and the Lagarde’s press conference. Importantly, the ECB lifted its growth forecast for 2020 from -8.7 to ‘just’ -8.0 percent. With inflation projections almost unchanged, the recent monetary policy statement sounded a little bit more hawkish than the previous one.
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Friday, September 18, 2020
It’s Go Time for Gold Price! Next Stop $2,250 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- Gold Pennant/Flag formation is now complete and setting up new momentum base near $1,925.
- Our Adaptive Fibonacci Models suggest support will prompt new Gold rally to $2,250.
- The rally in Gold will continue to extend higher over the next 4+ weeks.
- The US Dollar may move lower and/or the US stock market may break recent support to prompt this new rally in Gold.
If you are a follower of my research, then you know I follow gold and silver closely. I believe Gold has completed a Pennant/Flag formation and has completed the Pennant Apex. Further, a new momentum base has setup near $1,925~1,930, near the upper range of our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System’s support range. My team and I believe the current upside price move after the Pennant Apex may be the start of a momentum base rally targeting the $2,250 level or higher.
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Wednesday, September 16, 2020
What Does this Valuable Gold Miners Indicator Say Now? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Some swear by price action, many others rely on indicators. There are actually many gold trading tips built around these techniques. Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index, is one of the rare ones that don't issue signals all that often. And it showed the highest possible overbought reading recently.
The excessive bullishness was present at the 2016 top as well and it didn’t cause the situation to be any less bearish in reality. All markets periodically get ahead of themselves regardless of how bullish the long-term outlook really is. Then, they correct. If the upswing was significant, the correction is also quite often significant.
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Wednesday, September 16, 2020
Slow Economic Recovery from CoronaVirus Unlikely to Impede Strong Demand for Metals / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Richard_Mills
Daily coronavirus cases may be down in the United States, but that is no reason to be complacent, especially given that cold and flu season is only a few weeks away, says the nation’s top doctor.
In a roundtable discussion Thursday at Harvard Medical School, Dr. Anthony Fauci warned that “we need to hunker down and get through this fall and winter, because it’s not going to be easy.” He compared the pandemic to the early days of HIV in terms of how quickly it escalated, and how it might continue to escalate, if current trends of low mask-wearing and social distancing continue. “We've been through this before,” he said. “Don't ever, ever underestimate the potential of the pandemic. And don't try and look at the rosy side of things.”
On Friday Dr. Fauci went against President Trump, who in a White House news briefing Thursday told MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell, “I really do believe we’re rounding the corner,” referring to new cases having declined substantially since July.
According to data from John Hopkins University, over the past seven days the country has reported an average 35,200 cases per day, which is 12% lower than a week ago, and around half compared to 70,000 cases per day peak in late July.
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Tuesday, September 15, 2020
Gold Price Reaches $2,000 Amid Dollar Depreciation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
$2,000. Think about this number. Theoretically, it’s just a number, one of many. But… somehow we feel that jumping above this level was a big event in the gold market. After all, gold surpassed this psychologically important point for the first time in history, reaching record high, as the chart below shows.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 14, 2020
GLD, IAU Big Gold ETF Buying MIA / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Zeal_LLC
The big gold-ETF buying that catapulted gold higher into early August has gone missing in action. That’s why gold stalled out since, drifting sideways flirting with a correction. To continue powering higher, gold needs these major stock-market-capital inflows via exchange-traded funds to resume. The near-term fortunes for the precious-metals complex are heavily dependent on how American traders position in gold ETFs.
For better or worse, exchange-traded funds are increasingly dominating gold’s price trends. Their relative importance has been mounting for years, and cannot be overstated. Major gold ETFs are becoming the global gold market. Despite lingering concerns about gold ETFs’ physical bullion holdings, speculators and investors keep flocking to them. They are the easiest way to get gold portfolio exposure, quick and cheap.
The World Gold Council’s latest quarterly fundamental data on global gold supply and demand yet again revealed gold ETFs’ dominance. The WGC’s Q2’20 Gold Demand Trends report showed global demand being gobbled up by gold ETFs like Pac-Man! Gold surged 12.9% in Q2, which enjoyed one of the most-bullish psychological backdrops ever. A worldwide pandemic raged, which had just spawned a stock panic.
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Monday, September 14, 2020
Gold Price Gann Angle Update / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: readtheticker
Golds bullish trend has worked well in 2020, so what is next over the immediate 3 to 6 months? Will we continue to see a golden future.
The US dollar had been strong into COVID 19, since then the FED has printing a lot of money, and they are also considering YCC (Yield Curve Control), last seen during WW2. [Note YCC lasted 9 years over WW2. WOW, that is a lot of money printing.]
The FED is now forecast to over take competing central banks balance sheets in size, and the release valve will be a falling US dollar. Therefore we should continue to see the US dollar maintain is slow leak down over the next 3 to 6 month, say on the DXY 82 to 88.
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Sunday, September 13, 2020
The Silver Big Prize / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Hubert_Moolman
We have to keep our eyes on the bigger economic cycle. It helps in maintaining a proper perspective, and putting more emphasis on the bigger prize rather than the day to day movements.
The historical relationship between silver and the stock market provides great insight as to where we are currently in this cycle. Traditionally, the best part of silver rallies come after a significant Dow peak.
From previous work I have shared, it is clear that silver is still extremely cheap, and should be accumulated at these prices. The following comparison of silver and the Dow supports this, and gives us the proper perspective regarding the bigger economic cycle.
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Sunday, September 13, 2020
U.S. Shares Plunged. Is Gold Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The U.S. stock market plunged last week. Will gold follow suit?Last week, the U.S. stock market has seen strong selling activity. The S&P 500 Index has declined about 7 percent from its peak, while the Nasdaq Composite Index plunged more than 10 percent (entering a correction territory), below 11,000, as the chart below shows. It was the tech sector’s worst drop since the end of March, if not the quickest correction ever.
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Sunday, September 13, 2020
Gold And Silver Up, Down, Sideways, Up / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
In mid-march, just as the coronavirus was gaining momentum, the price of gold began to rise. After trading sideways from 2015 to 2019, gold rose from a low of $1,471 in mid-March to $2,069 on August 6th, a spectacular 40% rise in five months.
During that same period, silver rose from $11.94 to $29.14 on August 6th, an even more spectacular 114% increase.
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Saturday, September 12, 2020
Basel III and Gold, Silver and Platinum / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable talks with Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin Precious Metals Investments about macroeconomic policy and its effect on precious metals prices.
Maurice Jackson: Joining us for a conversation is Andy Schectman, the president of Miles Franklin Precious Metals Investments.
Let's begin today's discussion with gold, which has recently surpassed its all-time high since we last spoke, but this is no surprise. You forewarned us this would come to pass in our discussion back in December 2019, regarding the Bank of International Settlements and Basel III and its impact on gold. For those that missed that conversation, can you please shed some light on the importance of Basel III?
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Friday, September 11, 2020
Gold / Silver Ratio: Slowly I Toined… / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
Toined the macro, that is (in Moe’s Brooklyn accent). Step by step…
A rising Gold/Silver ratio preceded the March disaster, made an ill-fated bounce pattern in May-June and then got hammered by the 24/7 liquidity spigots opened up by a desperate Federal Reserve and Trump admin. They are desperate because the inflation MUST take hold in order to keep the system from unwinding to its fundamentals, which of course are nothing but robo-printed (funny) munny (political commentary withheld from this post, but insert what we all know here if you’d like…).
[edit] And while we’re at it, let’s insert here the republic for which it stands…
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Friday, September 11, 2020
Crude Oil – The Bearish Outlook Remains / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil declined quite substantially this week, and it doesn’t look that the decline will be over just yet.
After a given market clearly moves in a certain direction, corrective moves are bound to happen. After all, no market can move in a straight line up or down. But still, this assumption might be misleading in case of the current situation in black gold. Obviously, it is taking a breather right now after declining several dollars. But, that doesn’t mean that any sizeable rebound is going to happen.
As a matter of fact, based on how crude oil behaved before the decline, we believe that it’s going to slide even further.
In today’s globalized and interconnected economy, no market moves completely independently from the rest of the world. Crude oil, as the most versatile commodity in the market, is definitely not an exception.
Friday, September 11, 2020
Crude Oil Breaks Lower – Sparking Fears Of Another Sub $30 Price Collapse / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- Breakdown in Crude Oil sparks talk of sub $30 price targets.
- Initial support likely near $32 to $33.
- Predictive Modeling suggests deeper price lows may be reached before November 2020.
Have you been paying attention to Crude Oil recently? Prices have collapsed over -15% from the recent highs near $43.78. You may remember a research article I posted originally in July 2019 suggesting a big breakdown in Crude Oil was going to take place in early 2020 and extreme volatility was likely between February 2020 and April 2020. Our researchers predicted the following within that research article:
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Friday, September 11, 2020
China Unloads Dollars as Gold Tests Support / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Since posting new record highs in early August, the gold market has consolidated above $1,900/oz support.
A close below the $1,900 level would carry bearish implications for the near term.
Alternatively, a move back above $2,000/oz would likely be followed through to the upside with a rally to fresh highs. Silver, in turn, could be expected to run to new multi-year highs above $30/oz.
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Tuesday, September 08, 2020
Gold & Silver Shine as Fed Targets Bondholders for Capital Losses / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
As the tech-heavy stock market indexes sold off on Thursday, many investors were forced to re-think their positions.
For the past few months, mega cap technology companies like Apple, Amazon, and Tesla have led the market higher. Yesterday they led the market lower.
Now the question is: Where can investors look for leadership going forward?
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