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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Friday, February 09, 2018

Crude Oil $100 Price in 2019? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

The stock market is a dangerous place to be right now. Watching VIX spiked from 17 to 50+ then crashing back to 30 within two days can certainly cause a cardiac arrest or two. What’s even worse is that investors took this little dip as a buying opportunity throwing more good money at this deformed market. On Tuesday U.S. stocks rebounded to post the biggest rally in 15 months. We have discussed many times that stocks have a long way to go before any normalcy may be restored. On that note, let’s move to the oil/gasoline market instead.

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Commodities

Thursday, February 08, 2018

Peak Gold: 2017 Supply Flat As China Output Falls By 9% / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: GoldCore

– China gold production falls by 9% to 420.5t in 2017
– Chinese gold demand rose 4% to 953.3t in same period
– China is largest producer and accounts for 15% of global gold production
– China does not export gold. Increasing foreign gold acquisitions to meet demand
– Global gold production flat – 3,269t in ’17 from 3,263t in ’16, smallest increase since ’08
– Peak Gold is here: supply set to fall gradually while global demand remains robust

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Commodities

Thursday, February 08, 2018

U.S. Dollar Appears to be Bottoming. Is this the End of the Commodities Rally? / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Donald_W_Dony

The U.S. dollar appears to be finding a floor at $0.885 after six weeks of sharp declines. What does that mean to commodity prices?

The "Big dollar" slid almost six percent since mid-December aiding many commodity prices to stage a strong rally.

Gold bounced up 8.4 percent, silver soared 10 percent and WTI roar upward by 15 percent.

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Commodities

Wednesday, February 07, 2018

Oil Prices Ravaged By Financial Turmoil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Oil prices fell back suddenly over the last few trading sessions, dragged down by some forces beyond the oil market.

The steady decline of the U.S. dollar has helped drive up crude prices for weeks, but that came to an abrupt halt last week. A rebound for the greenback led to a steep decline in oil prices on Friday.

At the same time, sudden turmoil in the broader financial system also bled over into the oil market. Volatility in the stock market flared up on Friday, sparking the sharpest single-day upheaval in years.

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Commodities

Wednesday, February 07, 2018

Gold Nearing Cycle Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jim_Curry

In terms of time, a short-term secondary low is due for Gold here in the current timeframe, originally projected for the February 7th date, but with the normal plus or minus variance of a day or two in either direction. The current decline comes as a result of the 10, 20 and 34-day cycles, each of which have been pointing south off the 1370 swing top - and with the combination of the same at or into normal bottoming territory.

The chart below shows the smallest of the above waves - the nominal 10-day cycle - which is currently 13 days along from its last labeled trough, and thus is looking for a short-term bottom:

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 06, 2018

Will Hawkish Fed and Strong Payrolls Blow Out Gold Rally? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

At the end of last week, gold encountered a couple of headwinds. Will they topple the yellow metal?

First Gust of Wind: Fed

As we predicted, the last FOMC meeting turned out to be more hawkish than expected. On January 30, we wrote:

(…) the Fed has its own meeting this week. We could see a hawkish strike, especially that it will be the last Yellen’s meeting and she has nothing to lose. The changing composition of the policy committee could also point to a more aggressive pace of rate hikes in 2018. If that happens, the U.S. dollar may catch its breath, which would exert downward pressure on gold prices.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 06, 2018

Gold Rises As Global Stocks Plunge and Bitcoin Crashes 70% / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: GoldCore

– Gold gains 0.6% in USD and surges 1.7% in euros and pounds
– European stocks fall more than 3% at the open after sharp falls in Asia
– DJIA falls 1,175 points, S&P 500 down 4.1% and Nikkei plummets 4.7%

– Gold rises from $1,330 to $1,342, £942 to £960 and €1,067 to €1,085 /oz
– Bitcoin crashes another 10% and has now plummeted by 70% to below $6,000
– Increased risk aversion will drive safe haven demand for gold as its hedging properties are appreciated again 

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 06, 2018

Gold, U.S. Dollar, And Inflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Kelsey_Williams

Gold is all the rage right now. And some apparently think that if you aren’t outright ‘bullish’ you are unaware or unintelligent.

Those who ply the trade for a living (i.e. advisors, investors, traders, writers) all seem to be on the same page. Even fundamentalists and technical analysts are teammates. Sort of.

The U.S. dollar is in the headlines, so naturally, most of the explanations and expectations for gold’s ‘big move’ center on U.S. dollar weakness. And they should. But some additional explanation is necessary. Some say that a weaker U.S. dollar ’causes’ a higher gold price. That is like saying that lower interest rates cause higher bond prices.  That’s not the way it works.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 06, 2018

Gold Takes Center-stage in Dollar Scare / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Michael_J_Kosares

Trump-Mnuchin qualifiers in dollar statements tell all

“While it’s [a strong dollar] described as a desirable and intended thing, it might not be a choice. The size of dollar holdings of reserves (in dollar-denominated debt) and the dollar’s role as the dominant world currency are anachronisms and large relative to what one would want to hold to be balanced, so rebalancings should be expected over time, especially when U.S. dollar bonds look unattractive and trade tensions with dollar creditors intensify.” – Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Securities

Much is made of the direct inverse correlation between gold and the dollar, but acknowledging that relationship does not really get us anywhere. The bigger question is whether or not the dollar will continue to track lower as it has over the past 18 months or will it suddenly reverse course and head higher.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 06, 2018

Silver and Mining Stocks Fresh New 2018 Lows / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Silver was just breaking to new highs, gold stocks (HUI) were above the 205 level and gold was at levels not seen since August 2016. Gold and silver bulls were cheering. They are not cheering anymore. Even though the above was the case just several days ago, it was all invalidated, just like we expected it to be. Based on what happened on Friday, silver and mining stocks are at their new 2018 lows and their entire 2018 performance is a one huge bearish reversal. Where will precious metals in the following weeks?

Lower. Likely much lower.

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Commodities

Monday, February 05, 2018

Best Commodity Trading Opportunities to See Now / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: EWI

Special 5-day event (free): "Best Commodity Opportunities to See Now"

Dear reader,

Volatility is picking up steam -- and it's more than just Bitcoin and U.S. stocks that deserve your attention.

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Commodities

Monday, February 05, 2018

Will the Great Unwind Sink Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In the August 2017 edition of the Market Overview, we analyzed the hawkish turn among major central banks. We pointed out that “Europe has recently been among the most surprising positive economic regions in the world”, which should induce the ECB to taper its quantitative easing program in the fall, supporting both the EUR/USD exchange rate and the price of gold. This is exactly what happened. The dollar lost more than 3 percent in 2018 against the euro, while gold jumped above $1,350 (as of January 25). As we noted in the previous edition of the Market Overview, “the beginning of the year is usually a good period for the gold prices.”

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Commodities

Saturday, February 03, 2018

What’s Behind the Rising Gold and Treasury Bond Yields / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Harry_Dent

Three trends I’ve been forecasting have been happening in the last year:

  • The strong Trump rally.
  • Rising 10-year Treasury bond yields.
  • And rising gold prices.

They’re all related to late stage inflation and the expected tax cuts, which have materialized.

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Commodities

Friday, February 02, 2018

Radical Gold Under Investment / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

Global investors are radically underinvested in gold today.  Years of relentless stock-market rallying to endless new record highs have left this classic alternative investment deeply out of favor.  But this gold-demand ebb is ending.  The same central banks that fueled these extreme stock markets through epic easing are reversing to massive and unprecedented tightening.  As stocks roll over, gold investment will return.

Gold is a unique asset class established over millennia that should play a critical role in every investment portfolio.  Unlike virtually everything else, gold generally rallies when stock markets inevitably suffer their periodic major selloffs.  That effectively makes gold the anti-stock trade.  A substantial gold allocation is essential and necessary to diversify and protect stock-heavy portfolios, moderating their overall volatility.

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Commodities

Friday, February 02, 2018

Gold Price February Correction to Below $1300 - Video / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The gold price had a good start for 2018, rising from 1310 at the start of January to a high of $1367 with the most recent trading price of $1351. Which is set against my forecast for 2018 for the gold price to first target resistance $1375, an eventual break of which would propel the Gold price towards a 2018 target of $1500, and then further for the Gold price to ultimately target a trend towards $1800.

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Commodities

Friday, February 02, 2018

Can The Shale Oil Boom Avoid These Bottlenecks? / Commodities / Shale Oil and Gas

By: OilPrice_Com

Shale companies continue to drill at a frenzied pace, adding rigs and breaking U.S. oil production levels with each passing week. Yet, the oil production is becoming increasingly geographically concentrated. Not only is the Permian basin accounting for much of the new oil production in the U.S., but a relatively small number of counties within the Permian are home to most of that action.

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Commodities

Friday, February 02, 2018

Gold Stocks GDX Consolidation May Continue / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

While I would love to suggest that the market is ready to break out in a big way, I still have no clear indications that is the case just yet. And, this comes more so from the GDX than either of the metals themselves. So, I am going to focus on the GDX in this update.

The action over the last two days has been a lot more convoluted than one would think by simply looking at the chart. In fact, since we hit the lows yesterday, the action actually presents 4 different ways to potentially be counted from an Elliott Wave structure, with us even completing all of the (b) wave with one more minor high in the GDX tomorrow.

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Commodities

Friday, February 02, 2018

Gold And Gold Miners Preparing for Big Move / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Just a few days ago we alerted our members and followers to a massive setup in the Palladium market that had not been seen in years.  This chart formation provides an incredible opportunity for a trader to take advantage of and profit from the expected price decline.  We alerted our members and followers on January 24th of this move.

As of today, Palladium has rotated downward by over 9% from the recent highs and should continue to move lower as this multi-month rotation extends. Even though this initial move lower (-9%) reaches our initial predicted target levels, we still believe support won’t be found till prices reach near the $1000 price level.  If that support fails to hold, the price of Palladium could fall to the $900. This total move could be over -20% by the time this downward swing ends.

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Commodities

Thursday, February 01, 2018

Gold Price Forecast 2018 - February Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The gold price had a good start for 2018, rising from 1310 at the start of January to a high of $1367 with the most recent trading price of $1351. Which is set against my forecast for 2018 for the gold price to first target resistance $1375, an eventual break of which would propel the Gold price towards a 2018 target of $1500, and then further for the Gold price to ultimately target a trend towards $1800.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, February 01, 2018

2018 Gold Price Forecast and Predictions / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: GoldSilver

Most price forecasts aren’t worth more than an umbrella in a hurricane. There are so many factors, so many ever-changing variables and dynamics, that even the most educated guess almost always ends up wrong.

Further, some forecasts base their predictions on one issue. “Interest rates will rise so gold will fall.” That’s not even an accurate statement, let alone a sensible prediction (it’s the real rate that affects gold prices—the rate minus inflation).

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