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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Monday, April 09, 2018

Which is Right: Gold or Real Rates? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Readers know that I have beaten this drum all too often. Gold’s major fundamental driver is declining or negative real rates. There is a strong inverse correlation because Gold is money. That’s what JP Morgan said and he’s far more qualified to understand than quotable celebrities like Mark Cuban. But I digress. When real rates are increasing or strongly positive (during most of the 1980s and 1990s and 2011 through 2015) Gold performs poorly because one can earn a real return on their money unlike with Gold. However, when real rates decrease and particularly when they are negative, Gold flourishes. That being said, right now there is an interesting development. Real rates have increased over the past year but Gold has held steady. Reviewing recent history can help us answer which is right. 

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Commodities

Monday, April 09, 2018

The Beautiful Chartology of SLV Silver ETF / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Rambus_Chartology

SLV along with the PM stocks have been under performing gold in a pretty significant way. Normally you would like to see the PM stocks outperforming gold on the front end of a bull market similar to what we saw back in the beginning of the 2000 bull market in the PM complex. So far that hasn’t been the case.

Below is a weekly chart for SLV we’ve been following for a long time now as it has been chopping out the nearly four year diamond trading range. The first thing that would get my attention would be if the price action could takeout the top rail of the seven point diamond which is technically a reversal pattern at the moment. A touch of the bottom rail would complete the 8th reversal point which would be a consolidation pattern to the downside if the bottom rail is broken. It wouldn’t hurt to see SLV trade back above the 65 week ema if one is a bull.

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Commodities

Monday, April 09, 2018

Gold to Rally Due to Increased Stock Market Volatility? Really?! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

We were recently asked if the price of gold is likely to rally because of the increased volatility in stocks. This seems believable at the first sight, as gold is seen as a safe-haven asset and thus people could be buying it when the stock market’s movement becomes chaotic, scary and/or unpredictable.

So, the stock market’s volatile decline in the recent days is likely to become the catalyst for gold’s breakout above the $1,350 - $1,400 trading range, right?

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Commodities

Monday, April 09, 2018

Donald Trump's False Bravado Trade War, Implications for Gold Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses Donald Trump's trade war with China and the implications for the gold market. When I played pro hockey in Richmond, Virgina, it was during the era of "Slapshot!" and the Broad Street Bullies when gooning (fighting) was fashionable and an integral part of the sport. Stocking your team with two-or three enforcers meant that the finesse players could sail around the ice doing pirouettes and triple axles and dipsy-doodles without the fear of some 250-lb lumberjack from northern Quebec impaling them. I learned quickly from our coach, the legendary Forbes Kennedy (one of the toughest NHL players ever) that the way to avoid getting into a donnybrook with someone you really did not wish to engage was "Don't fookin' look at 'em!" because if they caught your eye and were staring you down, you then were forced to drop the gloves. I made a habit of staring into the eyes of all the finesse players and upon the skates of the goons. Of course, there was the odd occasion I forgot and wound up holding on for dear life when one of the Neanderthals tricked me up and forced me to drop 'em but for the most part, old "Forbie" was absolutely spot on and you could stay safe if you avoided the glaring, maniacal eyes of the Gilles Bilodeaus and Billy Goldthorpes of the world but ONLY if you just "didn't fookin' look at 'em."

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Commodities

Saturday, April 07, 2018

New Silver Bull Market Coming / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

Silver has been dead money over the past year or so, relentlessly grinding sideways to lower.  That weak price action has naturally left this classic alternative investment deeply out of favor.  Silver is extremely undervalued relative to gold, while speculators’ silver-futures positions are extraordinarily bearish.  All this has created the perfect breeding ground to birth a major new silver bull market, which could erupt anytime.

Silver’s price behavior is unusual, making it a challenging investment psychologically.  Most of the time silver is maddeningly boring, drifting listlessly for months or sometimes years on end.  So the vast majority of investors abandon it and move on, which is exactly what’s happened since late 2016.  There’s so little interest in silver these days that even traditional primary silver miners are actively diversifying into gold!

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Commodities

Saturday, April 07, 2018

21 Trillion Reasons to Own Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Do you know how much a trillion is (we refer here to the short scale)? A billion is hard enough to imagine, much less a trillion. But let’s try. We can write it as 1,000,000,000,000 – that’s a 1 with twelve zeroes. In other words it’s million million, or ten to the twelfth (1012). One trillion of dollars in $100 dollar bills would stack up to about 631 miles high. Given that the average annual income in the U.S. is around $50,000, Joe Schmo would have to save 20 million of years (and not consuming at all) to stockpile a trillion dollars. Sounds enormous, right? So now multiply it by 21 and you will obtain the new level of the U.S. federal debt (here you can watch a movie visualizing the U.S. debt of $20 trillion).

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Commodities

Thursday, April 05, 2018

As Volatility Spikes, Here’s What Could Be Ahead for Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: GoldSilver

The shift from low to high volatility in the markets is on. And almost by default, that’ll include gold and silver, since they’re inversely correlated to stock markets most of the time.

We’ve already seen this at work. The S&P 500 fell 2.2% on April 2, and in response, gold rose 1.2% and silver 1.6%.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 05, 2018

Gold Price Set For Sparkling Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Austin_Galt

Latest Price – $1340.20

Pattern – price looks to have been consolidating these past few months and as price rose into this consolidation pattern it should leave the same way – up. Breaking below the low of this consolidation phase at $1303 could be one area to place stops.

Bollinger Bands – price found support three separate times at the lower band. I doubt there will be a fourth time and price looks to have recently found support at the middle band.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 04, 2018

Crude Oil Price Bears - Stay the Course / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

What a day! The beginning of the new quarter, the new month and the new week was undoubtedly the triumph of oil bears. Thanks to their attack crude oil lost almost 3% in one day, which was the biggest decline since weeks. What impact did this drop have on the short-term outlook? Where are the nearest supports? For these and other questions you will find answers in today's alert.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 04, 2018

Gold Outperforms Stocks In Q1, 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: GoldCore

– Gold signs off Q1 2018 with best run since 2011
– Gold price supported by safe haven demand, interest-rate concerns and inflation
– Trade wars and concerns over equity market have sent investors towards gold
– ETF holdings highest in nearly a decade
– Goldman Sachs: ‘The dislocation between the gold prices and U.S. rates is here to stay’

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 04, 2018

Gold: Patiently Waiting for… Nothing / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold started the month with an upswing, silver soared and… Silver stocks declined. Yes, you read that right. Big upswings can be bullish developments, but it’s definitely not true in all cases. For instance, in this case, one could say that while it’s true that gold moved higher, it failed to move to the late-March high, let alone break above it. Why is gold not moving decisively in any direction? What’s it waiting for? Was gold’s early-April rally just a late April fool’s joke?

Let’s start with the shocker – silver stocks (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 03, 2018

Crude Oil Price Rally Is Likely / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Oil prices seesawed at the start of the week before jumping close to multi-year highs on geopolitical concerns, with Brent hitting $70 and WTI at $65. However, geopolitical pressure is only able to influence oil prices to such a degree because the market is fundamentally getting tighter.

Ongoing declines in Venezuela and concerns about heightened tension between the U.S. and Iran have significantly raised the risk premium for oil, even as some short-term factors recently pushed up prices.

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 03, 2018

Orange Juice Commodity Price Analysis / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Austin_Galt

Latest Price – $139.20

Patterm – price looks to be generally in an uptrend with a secondary low in place with a recent test of that higher low turning price back up.

Fibonacci – the higher low was just above the 88.6% retracement level which is normal for the first correction in a new bull market as first corrections often make deep retracements while the most recent low looks to have found support at the 76.4% level. The higher low was at support from the 88.6% angle and price looks to have once again found support at that angle.

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 03, 2018

Gold Sector is on a Long-term Buy Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan updates the gold and silver charts.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is up.

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 03, 2018

Review of Gold, Silver and Copper Charts and Implications of the Latest COTs / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Clive_Maund

We've certainly got plenty to look at in coming days, but perhaps a good place to start is with a review of some of the latest COTs, because of their implications for the immediate future. The following charts make very clear why those in control of publishing COT data hold up its release for three days (the data is always for Tuesday's close) so that those at the top of the food chain can position themselves comfortably to benefit from early knowledge of what's going on before the ordinary shmuck does—observe how the uptrends in both copper and the broad market S&P 500 index presaged by the COTs have already started by the end of the week. In looking at the charts, keep in mind that markets were closed on Friday.

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Commodities

Monday, April 02, 2018

This Will Be The Hottest Commodity of 2018 / Commodities / Lithium

By: OilPrice_Com

...

 


Commodities

Saturday, March 31, 2018

It’s Not Yet Time for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Last week we noted that Gold’s quarterly close would be a key marker for Gold’s immediate breakout potential. Gold was seemingly on course for its highest quarterly close since 2012 until it reversed back below quarterly resistance at $1330/oz. Hence, an imminent break to the upside is unlikely and gold watchers will have to remain patient. It’s not yet Gold’s time. It will be soon enough.

One catalyst for the most recent strength in Gold (the correction in equities) appears to have faded as the S&P 500 has held its 200-day moving average. A sustained rebound in equities while bond yields correct would not be particularly bullish for Gold. The obvious reason is capital is flowing into equities and not Gold. A rebound in equities amid a temporary reduction in inflation expectations would equate to stable or rising real yields.

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Commodities

Friday, March 30, 2018

Silver Mining Stocks SIL ETF Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The silver miners’ stocks have really languished since mid-2016, relentlessly grinding sideways to lower.  With gold out of favor, silver and its miners have largely been left for dead and forgotten.  This sector is deeply mired in universal apathy and bearishness.  But since silver stocks can skyrocket when silver decisively rallies again, it’s important to keep an eye on silver miners’ fundamentals like their recent Q4’17 results.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by securities regulators, these quarterly results are exceedingly important for investors and speculators.  They dispel all the sentimental distortions surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing the underlying hard fundamental realities.  They serve to re-anchor perceptions.

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Commodities

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Gold’s Old Friend Comes Back / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Remember LIBOR? The interest rate which soared during the global financial crisis? It’s on the rise again, but almost no one is paying adequate attention to it. We are – and we will analyze for you what this means for the gold market.

Hello LIBOR, My Old Friend
Simon and Garfunkel sang about darkness, the old friend. We can refer these words to LIBOR which has come to talk with us again. I bet you remember the Great Recession well. But let me briefly remind you that LIBOR soared in 2008 as banks were reluctant to lend to each other. The stress in the financial system fueled fears, increased risk premia and made LIBOR rise. Gold shined then. Just see the chart below.

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Commodities

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Building The World's Largest Solar Project / Commodities / Solar Energy

By: OilPrice_Com

Saudi Arabia wants to pour $200 billion into solar to build the world's largest solar project.

The Saudi sovereign wealth fund and SoftBank Group Corp. of Japan jointly announced plans to build a solar project that is staggering in size – 200 gigawatts (GW) by 2030. That would be about 100 times larger than some of the largest projects in the world right now. "It's by far the biggest solar project ever," Masayoshi Son, CEO of SoftBank said at a news conference Tuesday in New York after signing a nonbinding agreement with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS).

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