Saturday, November 17, 2018
The Fed's Misleading Money Supply Measures / Interest-Rates / Money Supply
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The most robust national income determination model is the monetarist model. The course of the economy when measured in nominal terms is determined by the course taken by the money supply. Indeed, the positive relationship between the growth rate of the money supply and both nominal GDP and nominal aggregate demand growth is unambiguous and overwhelming.
So, just what is the measure of money that is most suited for taking the temperature of the economy and forecasting its course? Is a narrow metric, like the monetary base (M0), the best? Or, should we focus on broad money metrics, like M3 and M4? For national income determination, the more inclusive the metric, the better. Indeed, for the most complete and accurate picture, one should include all the important components of money supply, not just a few.
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Saturday, November 17, 2018
Stock Market Outlook: Why the Economy is Bullish for Stocks Going into 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As we expected in last week’s market outlook, the U.S. stock market has pulled back after a hard bounce. The S&P 500 has now retraced more than 61.8% of its gains.
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Saturday, November 17, 2018
NO DEAL HARD BrExit Tory Chaos, Theresa May Leadership Challenge / Politics / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain is likely counting down to towards the END of Theresa May's premiership who has been a walking disaster since Article 50 was triggered in March 2017, and who has likely DELIBERATELY WASTED the past 18 months in doing an exit deal with the EU Devil that effectively KEEPs the UK within the EU!, a deal where nearly every British red line has been watered down towards nothing in what amounts to a 585 page suicide note, one of virtually delivering Britain on a platter to the European Union Mafia which from the outset had sought to extract a heavy price from Britain such a Euro 50 billion divorce bill, free movement of people, Northern Ireland effectively split from the rest of the UK and over 500 pages more of similar poison, all in exchange for Britain to remain within a customs union for a few more years.
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Saturday, November 17, 2018
Gold vs Several Key Investments / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
Let’s take an in-day snapshot of gold vs. several key competitors (for your investment dollars/euros/yen, etc.) and check the progress in turning the macro from risk ‘on’ to risk ‘off’, cyclical to counter-cyclical.
Gold/Commodities motors along above the SMA 200. The move has been hysterical, and thus looks impulsive. That could mean something as we look back in hindsight one day.
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Saturday, November 17, 2018
GDX Gold Mining Stocks Q3 18 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The major gold miners’ stocks remain mired in universal bearishness, largely left for dead. They are just wrapping up their third-quarter earnings season, which proved challenging. Lower gold prices cut deeply into cash flows and profits, and production-growth struggles persisted. But these elite companies did hold the line on costs, portending soaring earnings as gold recovers. Their absurdly-cheap stock prices aren’t justified.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 40 calendar days after quarter-ends. Canadian companies have similar requirements at 45 days. In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.
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Saturday, November 17, 2018
Is Gold Under or Overpriced? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Have you heard about the Everything Bubble? Some analysts believe that after the dot-com bubble of the 1990s and the housing bubble of the 2000s, we are in the middle of a price bubble in virtually all asset classes simultaneously caused by the Fed’s unusually easy monetary policy with ultra low interest rates. Although we agree that the US central bank maintained federal funds rate too low for too long, the narrative about a dangerous bubble inflating in a wide variety of countries, industries, and assets does not make sense. The bubble means that the price of an asset deviates from the fundamental value, increasing excessively, to a much greater extent than on other markets. It should be now clear that the existence of overvalued assets necessarily means that other assets are undervalued, so there can’t be the ‘everything bubble’. Sorry, but those who wait for the total asset apocalypse might be disappointed.
Friday, November 16, 2018
How APEC Can Boost Free Trade in Asia Pacific / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Dan_Steinbock
Amid trade wars, the outcome of the APEC meeting matters. As globalization is at crossroads, trade in Asia today will shape world trade tomorrow.As the 21 member countries of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meet during the weekend in Papua New Guinea, there is an elevated international concern about the future of global trade amid the tide of nationalism and protectionism.
APEC member economies represent some 40% of global population, the region’s combined GDP is more than 60% of global GDP and it accounts for almost 50% of global trade in goods and services. What APEC leaders decide matters.
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Friday, November 16, 2018
Active Managers are Bearish on Stocks. A Bullish Contrarian Sign / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market has been very volatile lately, swinging up and down more than 1% on many days. During times of high intraday volatility, it’s best to ignore the short term and focus on the bigger picture.
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Friday, November 16, 2018
Will The Fed Sacrifice Retirement Portfolio Values For The "Common Good"? / Politics / Pensions & Retirement
By: Dan_Amerman
Martin Feldstein, who was chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Reagan and is currently a Harvard professor, wrote an extraordinary editorial in the Wall Street Journal in which he strongly advocated that the Federal Reserve pursue policies that would: 1) continue to raise interest rates; and 2) thereby pop asset bubbles in the stock and commercial real estate markets; 3) which would cause an estimated $9+ trillion in investor losses; 4) possibly lead to another recession and the accompanying major job losses; and 5) would be followed by forcing interest rates down again to near historic lows.
Now, the eminently respectable Professor Feldstein and other mainstream economists are not intentionally trying to hurt investors, that is not the reason to raise rates. Quite the reverse, this is all supposed to be for our own good, and the intentions are to over the long term help economic growth and create healthier investment markets.
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Friday, November 16, 2018
Pound Falls 2.5% Against Gold as UK Government in Turmoil Over Brexit / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldCore
The pound plunged against the euro, the dollar, gold and all leading currencies today as Theresa May’s UK government appeared vulnerable to collapsing and political turmoil risked creating a hard Brexit.
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Friday, November 16, 2018
The New China and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
China has developed tremendously in recent years. But what’s next? Is the country entering the growth recession? And how it will affect the world and the gold market?
A New Chapter in China
We have not analyzed the publications of the World Gold Council for a while. Let’s make it up, starting with the newest edition of Gold Investor. The report is about China and its remarkable transformation in the context of the gold market.
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Friday, November 16, 2018
BrExit War - Tory Party About to Replace Theresa May for NO DEAL BrExit / Politics / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain is possibly counting down to towards the END of Theresa May's premiership who has been a walking disaster since Article 50 was triggered in March 2017, and who has likely DELIBERATELY WASTED the past 18 months in doing an exit deal with the EU Devil that effectively KEEPs the UK within the EU!, a deal where nearly every British red line has been watered down towards nothing in what amounts to a 585 page suicide note, one of virtually delivering Britain on a platter to the European Union Mafia which from the outset had sought to extract a heavy price from Britain such a Euro 50 billion divorce bill, free movement of people, Northern Ireland effectively split from the rest of the UK and over 500 pages more of similar poison, all in exchange for Britain to remain within a customs union for a few more years.
Friday, November 16, 2018
Aspire Global Makes Significant Financial Strides / Companies / Gambling
By: Submissions
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Friday, November 16, 2018
When This Liquidity Bubble Pops, We’ll Face The Biggest Crisis Yet / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: John_Mauldin
Debt is a huge a drag on the economy. It’s especially true after it rises over the 80 to 90% of GDP level.US government debt is now 106% of GDP. And if you add state and local debt, total government debt is over 120% of GDP.
Shades of Italy and Greece.
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Friday, November 16, 2018
Gold Oil and Commodities …Back to the Future ? / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Rambus_Chartology
Before we look at tonights charts I would like to take a minute to discuss trading the three X leveraged etf’s. Leveraged etf’s aren’t for everyone as they can be very volatile. These instruments are for those that can take a bigger risk and still come out OK when they go against you. For the average investor a 1 X leveraged etf is all they can handle and that should be fine. When you start playing with the 2 X and 3 X leveraged etf’s your risk factor goes up very fast.
Placing a sell/stop in the correct place works great for the 1 X leveraged etf, but when you are in a 3 X leveraged etf setting the sell/stop is a totally different game. Very rarely do I let the original sell/stop be hit before I will exit the trade as you have to give the stock some wiggle room when you first take a position. As more information becomes available you can start to make adjustments to your sell/stop mentally. A 3 X etf can get away from you in a heartbeat so one has to pay very close attention at all times.
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Friday, November 16, 2018
Investors And Analysts Know Nothing About Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
There were several developments in the gold market last week. First, we heard of another trader who has pleaded guilty to “manipulating” the metals market. And, everyone is up in arms again about how gold was manipulated to drop from $1,921 to $1,040 during 2011-2015.
And, yes, they are all again saying “ah ha – you see, we were right.”
But, as I have said so many times before, what this trader did was akin to a paper cut in the market. And, to claim that these types of actions caused the market to drop from 2011 to 2016 is akin to claiming that a paper cut caused the market to bleed to death.
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Friday, November 16, 2018
The Stock Market Economy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Peter_Schiff
Currently, some market watchers have begun to openly question whether the bull market in stocks has finally come to an end. They certainly have cause to worry. Valuations are frothy after a record run-up in the last few years. Bond yields across the yield curve are rising sharply, as the Fed Funds Rate breaks into territory not seen since before the market crash of 2008. Much higher costs of capital are already putting pressure on rate-sensitive industries such as housing and autos. The boost to earnings provided by the corporate tax cuts will fade and rising prices resulting from past monetary policy and import tariffs may be expected to slow consumption and take a toll on balance sheets. All this points to possible lackluster performance, with stocks essentially flat so far this year.
Thursday, November 15, 2018
Will Oil Price Crash Lead to “Contagion” for the U.S. Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Oil’s crash is historic – this is the most oversold oil has been from 1983 – present. Will oil’s crash lead to “contagion” for the U.S. stock market? Meanwhile, some traders think that the S&P 500 is making an “inverted head and shoulders” bottoming pattern.
*We usually ignore such chart patterns. These patterns work perfectly with 20/20 hindsight, but are no better than a coin toss in real-time.
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Thursday, November 15, 2018
Is A Top Forming In Natural Gas? / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The recent upswing in NG prices has been an incredible trade for many, yet we believe a top is now forming in Natural Gas that could catch many traders by surprise. The recent upside gap in price and upward price volatility would normally not concern long traders. They would likely view this as a tremendous success for their long NG positions, yet we believe this move is about to come to a dramatic end – fairly quickly.
Thursday, November 15, 2018
How NOT to Be Among the MANY Stock Investors Fooled by This Market Myth / Stock-Markets / Oil Companies
By: EWI
October included a market phenomenon that left many economists and commentators scratching their heads.
US stocks and oil prices both dropped simultaneously. In fact, it was the worst month for oil in 2 years and the worst month for S&P 500 in over 7 years.
What was the "phenomenon"? Well, conventional wisdom says that rising oil prices are bearish for stocks. So, how could falling oil prices also be bearish for stocks?
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