Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, July 15, 2014
Final Days of the Stock Market Bubble / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
David A. Stockman writes: The central banks of the world are massively and insouciantly pursuing financial instability. That’s the inherent result of the 68 straight months of zero money market rates that have been forced into the global financial system by the Fed and its confederates at the BOJ, ECB and BOE. ZIRP fuels endless carry trades and the harvesting of every manner of profit spread between negligible “funding” costs and positive yields and returns on a wide spectrum of risk assets.
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Tuesday, July 15, 2014
Stock Market Morning Rally to a Tiny Trading Range / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Courtesy of Doug Short. Some earnings optimism triggered a modest market surge at the open, with Citigroup’s beat grabbing the headlines (C would go on to close with a 3% gain for the day). The S&P 500 rose half a percent at the opening bell and then spent the rest of the day in a tiny trading range, closing with a 0.48% advance.
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Tuesday, July 15, 2014
Stock Market Retail Money Market Funds Reversal Signal - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Steve Hochberg on the state of retail money market funds vs. stock market capitalization, filmed at the 2014 Las Vegas Money Show
Editor's note: The article below is adapted from the transcript of the live presentation above, originally recorded at the 2014 Las Vegas Money Show. It features Elliott Wave International Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg. Hochberg is co-editor of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, one of EWI's flasgship market letters. Click here for a free excerpt from Hochberg's latest issue.
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Tuesday, July 15, 2014
Stock Market Gap Up....No Gains After The Open... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
It was a surprise to see the market gap up today, and an even bigger surprise to see it simply die after the open, since the gap up was pretty powerful in terms of price. Normally, after such a decent gap up, you run up all day and close at or near the highs for the day. In this tough environment which is on a sell signal related to froth, it's not easy to get a strong follow-through to the upside. It would be no shock if the market reversed down tomorrow. When looking at today's action, the bulls have to be happy they created an open upward gap, but unhappy about what took place once the gap up occurred.
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Monday, July 14, 2014
Stock Market Decline Looks Set to Resume / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Good Morning!
The SPX appears to have completed a correction near a level where Micro Wave a equals Micro Wave c at 1976.61. We should see a resumption of the decline thereafter.
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Monday, July 14, 2014
More Stock Market Weakness Ahead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the Fed policy of keeping interest rates low has severely curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - The DOW may be tracing out an ending diagonal pattern.
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Sunday, July 13, 2014
Portuguese Bank Sell-off is a Stock Market Non Event / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The recent sell-off of a major Portuguese lender brought some early concerns to investors of a possible trickle down effect on global markets. In reality, the benchmark European index (Stoxx Europe 600) proved much more resilient than one of its smaller components.
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Sunday, July 13, 2014
European Stock Markets Leading Again? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The market opened the week on a gap down, one of several, as it started to correct from last week’s SPX 1986 all time high. After hitting SPX 1953 on Thursday the market tried to rebound into Friday’s close. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.80%, the NDX/NAZ were -1.05%, and the DJ World index was down 1.55%. Economic reports were sparse on this first full trading week of the quarter. On the uptick: consumer credit, wholesale inventories, the WLEI, a Treasury surplus, and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: the monetary base. Next week we have the FED’s beige book, Industrial production and reports on Housing, to name a few, within a busy week.
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Saturday, July 12, 2014
Corporate Earnings Season Is Here..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
When that time of year comes we always keep a keen eye on how stocks are treated if they beat or miss their numbers. We also watch for guidance. Will good numbers and good guidance get ignored or rewarded? Will bad numbers or guidance get a stock smoked or will anyone care? This gives us a real clue as to the markets overall big picture health. Most don't care about the big picture, but you need to care. In addition, if a market needs to sell, then bad reports can be the catalyst. Today we had a key leader in the financial world. Wells Fargo & Company (WFC), the best of the best, reported poor earnings with regards to revenues. The stock was smoked early on, but it managed to get a bid as the day went on, allowing it to close well off the lows.
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Friday, July 11, 2014
Gutting the U.S. Armed Forces, Committing Economic Suicide, France Imploding / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
This week was interesting to say the least and it is ending with a bang. We are covering a number of brief subjects this week. I hope you enjoy them.
- Gutting the armed forces
- Politically correct, but practically incorrect economic suicide.
- Farmland disaster DEAD ahead
- Repressed to Death
- NOT a SMIDGEN of Corruption!
- France is IMPLODING economically: Vive la France
- Bonfire of the Vanities!
- This will not have a HAPPY ending!
Friday, July 11, 2014
Most Hated Stocks Bull Market! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
BIG PICTURE - The ongoing bull market is over 5 years old and both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P500 Index have climbed to record highs. Yet, the vast majority of retail investors are still not convinced and many are waiting for the elusive stock market crash!
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Thursday, July 10, 2014
Why We Are Heavily Invested in Poland / Stock-Markets / European Stock Markets
There’s a reason why Poland retains the number two slot in our Emerging Europe Fund (EUROX), following Turkey. Ever since the fall of communism in 1989, the country has risen steadily, from a fledgling republic beset by near-bankruptcy, a deteriorating infrastructure and an East-West identity crisis, to emerge as one of the European Union’s (EU) most prosperous nations, alongside the U.K., France, Germany and Spain.
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Thursday, July 10, 2014
Stock Market Breakdown / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The Pre-market (delayed) is down .8% as I write, while the futures are down over 1%. This puts SPX below the hourly mid-Cycle support at 1957.39. Try as hard as I might, I could not get an impulse out of this week’s decline in the SPX, although the other indexes may easily be impulses. There are five declining waves, but the third is the smallest, which is a no-no in Elliott Wave parlance. The alternative to a Minute Wave (a) is a probable extended Minor Wave 1. Yesterday’s bounce did not overlap, suggesting impulsive qualities that could lend to an extended decline.
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Thursday, July 10, 2014
Signs of Stock Market Trouble Are Looming / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Michael E. Lewitt writes Markets are priced to perfection.
Signs of late-cycle behavior and thinking are abundant.
The latest example came from BMO's strategist Brian Belski, who published a report arguing that the bull market in stocks will continue for another ten years with annual gains of 10.5%.
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Thursday, July 10, 2014
Stock Market Down But Not Out... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
That's the bulls for you. Just when it looked like it was all over, and it still may very well be, they stage a rally after two open gap downs that held. A rally up, sure, but a gap up made little sense. Now we do know that the gap up was filled back down with some indexes actually going red at one point today, so there's no technical damage to the good work done by the bears over the past two days. That said, it was strange to see such a decent rally today. The score is currently two to zero with the bears in front.
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Thursday, July 10, 2014
Poverty Matters for Capitalists - Stock Market Impact / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
Having taken Thomas Piketty to the cleaners a few weeks back (see “Gave & Gave … and Hay”), Charles Gave now redresses the balance with regard to the issue of economic inequality in today’s Outside the Box. He makes a forceful case that “poverty matters for capitalists”:
Every US recession that I can recall was preceded by a fall in long rates, and I doubt the next will be much different. As such, do not expect the next US downturn to arise from the Federal Reserve pushing rates higher, an overvalued dollar or even mal-investments. Expect it to result from a decline in the income of the working poor. Early warning signs are likely to show up in the shopping aisles of stores such as Walmart, average driving miles, and the price of houses at the cheaper end of the market. I suspect the lesson that will eventually be learnt is that in a modern industrialized economy there are few worse things a central bank can do than deliberately attack the spending power of the poor.
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Thursday, July 10, 2014
The Fake Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
For the average person trying to decide how to feel about the economy, the single biggest data point is the stock market. When share prices are rising, the implicit message is that finance professionals — who, after all, dedicate their lives to understanding such things and should therefore know what’s happening — have decided that life is good and getting better.
So the rest of us relax and go shopping. Known as the “wealth effect,” this tendency of asset prices to affect consumer behavior is now a key policy goal of the US and pretty much every other major government.
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Wednesday, July 09, 2014
Stock Market Rising / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Good Morning!
Considering that the FOMC minutes are being released at 2:00 pm today, it would normally follow that equities may stay elevated until then.
There are three waves in the decline so far. If the SPX has a limited bounce and declines at least to mid-Cycle support at 1955.96, then SPX would have a clean 5 waves. A 50% retracement may limit the bounce this morning to 1972.52 which would still allow a fifth wave.
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Wednesday, July 09, 2014
Stock Market 3-Wave Decline Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
S&P 500 made a downward extension yesterday, close to 1950. The move is very strong, so it appears that the rally from 1935 is already done, that can be a fifth wave within a bigger impulsive rally. We know that after every five wave move market, it will turn into the opposite direction with minimum three legs. With that in mind, we suspect that price will remain bearish for another, third leg of decline, maybe after hitting 1967 resistance.
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Wednesday, July 09, 2014
Stock Market Second Day of Selling / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Courtesy of Doug Short.
Another day of no economic news coupled with fretting about Q2 earnings took its toll on the market. The S&P 500 opened in the shallow red at its intraday high and sold off to its -0.92% intraday low early in the lunch hour. A 90-minute afternoon rally lost traction and gave up about half its gain. The index closed with a 0.70 loss.
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