Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, January 03, 2012

Gold and Silver Major Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012

By: Przemyslaw_Radomski

Several Wall Street firms have recently published their gold price forecasts for 2012. Goldman Sachs predicts the price of gold will peak at $1,900 per ounce and average $1,810 per ounce in the coming year. Goldman attributes its bullish gold price outlook to further net buying by central banks and strong physical demand from investors, the ongoing negative real interest rate environment in the U.S., and continued European sovereign debt and global recessionary concerns.

Tuesday, January 03, 2012

Crude Oil Prices, The Coming Event Horizon / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

In a UK 'Guardian' interview, 10 November 2011, the IEA's chief economist Fatih Birol once again outlined how radically the IEA sees the oil price outlook. He said: "If fossil fuel (energy) infrastructure is not rapidly changed, the world will lose for ever the chance to avoid dangerous climate change", but more to the point he provided the IEA's estimate of what oil price rises in 2010-2011 had done for the OECD group of countries, saying annual oil import costs had risen by 30% to about $790 billion from around $625 billion in 2010.

Tuesday, January 03, 2012

Crude Oil Supply 2012, Should We Be Worried About Iran? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

David Zeiler writes: If the Iranian government makes good on its recent threats to stop oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices would shoot up $20 to $30 a barrel within hours and the price of gasoline in the United States would rise by $1 a gallon.

Such a steep spike in crude oil prices would plunge the United States and Europe back into recession, said Money Morning Global Energy Strategist Dr. Kent Moors.

Tuesday, January 03, 2012

Gold 2012 Contracting Fibonacci Spiral / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012

By: David_Petch

On holidays this week has definitely been interesting. The new term for investing in today's market should be coined “Volatility Investing”. Since most trading is done by computers with complex algorithms that when their stops are hit, cause mass liquidation. For this reason, everyone should know that the expected move expected in 2012 is going to be finite in price and time, not “To Infinity and Beyond”. When I first made the observation that the markets were following a Contracting Fibonacci Spiral, my first thoughts were that something must be overlooked in my mind. Further thinking on this topic over the past six months just makes one realize the entire Universe runs on mathematical principles at many levels and under different conditions...the collective human psyche is just another example.

Tuesday, January 03, 2012

As Goes Steel… / Commodities / Steel Sector

By: Anthony_David

Falling iron ore prices had reached their lowest point over 22 months in late October. Since then, prices have been rising and they reached $147.60 per tonne—a rise of 26%—over the last few weeks. However, market observers are not celebrating yet; in fact they have cautioned investors that steel demand is still subdued so the rising iron prices could be a reflection of purchases made by metal traders and not steel making companies.

Tuesday, January 03, 2012

2012: A Year of Transition for Strategic Metals / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: Anthony_David

China announced its rare earth export quota for 2012 on December 27. The initial quantity has been reduced by 27% in comparison to 2011 but the whole year’s quota is slated to remain almost unchanged from 2011 levels. Officials have launched a new system whereby the export quota would be split among the different types of rare earths—such a move is expected to better match supply and demand. China has, for the first time, split its export quota into light and medium-to-heavy categories. Mining companies that cannot meet the environmental standards of the government would be excluded from the quota.

Tuesday, January 03, 2012

Gold GLD ETF Incredible Chart / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012

By: David_Grandey

They say a picture is worth a thousand words, one needs look no further than the chart below for that.

It’s a great example in the event that the market tops out and how to protect oneself and more importantly how to profit from that should it occur.

Tuesday, January 03, 2012

Criminals Determine Gold's Future in 2012 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012

By: Midas_Letter

According to faulty interpretations of Mayan calendars, 2012 is supposed to bring with it the demise of humanity. Fortunately for us, this apocalyptic myth, like so many, is based on a superficial interpretation of the Mayan calendar. Like many stories based on a lie, this one nonetheless gains traction in the popular imagination thanks to our fascination with anything apocalyptic.

Monday, January 02, 2012

Gold Bull Market Corrections / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012

By: Jesse

Here is an excellent review of the corrections in this gold bull market by my friend Brian at ContraryInvestor.com.

Sunday, January 01, 2012

There Will Be Oil - Versus - Peak Oil Now / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Claiming there is an oil limit on the economy and why peak oil is inevitable is usually talked down by saying its an unsure theory at best, and controversial, fear mongering or defeatist at worst. The totally simple numbers which prove it are however not Einstein-type mathematics and are not impossible to understand - - only by the badly intentioned or plain stupid.

We can start with the average oil consumption of OECD countries of about 14.4 barrels/capita/year, and try extending that to China and India. Presently they consume about 3 barrels per head in China and less than 2 barrels per head in India with recent growth rates as high as 6% per year.

Sunday, January 01, 2012

Calling the Bottom in Gold and Silver, Forecast 2012 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012

By: Adam_Brochert

Now that my subscribers and I are fully into bullish positions in the precious metals sector, I hope they won't mind me telling you that I called for the bottom in Gold stocks on Thursday morning (12/29). I believe the bottom is in for silver, Gold and their respective stocks, although the metals may need a re-test of the bottom while I think Gold or silver stocks (as sectors) will only make higher lows on any corrective action.

Sunday, January 01, 2012

How Did Gold and Silver Perform in 2011? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Eric_McWhinnie

On Friday, gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) prices managed to climb $25.90 higher, breaking its six-day losing streak. Although gold has been in a slump during the final months of the year, gold continued its 11-year winning streak. Gold prices finished 2011 at $1,566.80, representing a 9.3 percent annual increase.

Saturday, December 31, 2011

Gold Stocks Lessons Learned in 2011 and Implications for 2012 / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

2011 certainly was a difficult year for gold bugs. Gold barely held onto its gains for the year while Silver went parabolic and eventually fell to negative on the year. Mining stocks? Don't ask. The large caps (gdx) are currently down 17% on the year while the mid-tiers (gdxj) are down 41% and the explorers (gldx) are down 44%. In our last commentary we discussed the equities with respect to investing and speculating. By now, you should know that most mining stocks are speculations and do not perform consistently, even in a raging bull market.

Saturday, December 31, 2011

Powerful Rebound In Gold and Silver Prices About To Begin? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Jeb_Handwerger

Rarely has such technical destruction been visited on stalwart sectors such as gold, silver and the mining stocks(GDX). The silver charts reveal technical damage not seen since the destruction of 1984. It can only be conjecture that can account for a once in a generation obliteration of a once hallowed sector. It must be remembered that both gold(GLD) and silver(SLV) had major moves earlier this year to the $1900 and $50, surpassing overhead resistance and reaching overbought territory. This may be the reason why the decline in precious metal is overextended and extremely oversold. We urged caution back in April for silver and in September for gold. Silver has characteristically corrected close to 50% from its highs, while gold has fallen less than 20%. Pullbacks are normal and restorative in a secular bull market in precious metals especially after explosive moves.

Saturday, December 31, 2011

Platinum: Fire Sale On The Rich Man's Gold / Commodities / Platinum

By: Submissions

John Lee writes: About 2000 years ago, Aristotle explained why gold remained the ideal choice of money throughout major nations and civilizations.  In words that are just as relevant today, he said "Gold is durable, not like wheat, divisible, not like diamonds, convenient, not like lead, constant, not like real estate, and best of all, as jewelry, it has intrinsic value".

Friday, December 30, 2011

Junior Gold Stocks Carnage / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks

By: Zeal_LLC

As 2011 comes to a close, investors will reflect on one of the most tumultuous years in market history.  Though the stock markets were essentially flat on the year, those who’ve had skin in the game probably feel like they just stepped out of a barrel that went over Niagara Falls.

In assessing what worked in 2011, investors can yet again take solace in “old reliable”.  For the eleventh consecutive year gold will have returned positive gains.  Not only has gold’s secular bull delivered consistency, it has delivered robust returns that have greatly rewarded investors.  Since its low of $256 in 2001, gold has soared 640% to its high earlier this year.  And with only a couple days remaining, gold is looking to close out 2011 with a 9%+ gain despite its recent selloff.

Friday, December 30, 2011

Further Gold Price Fall Seems Unlikely / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012

By: Przemyslaw_Radomski

We are on the cusp of a new year, and this is the time that we take a look at those brave (or foolhardy) financial analysts who take out their crystal ball and predict where precious metal prices will go in 2012.

But first let’s see how last year’s prognosticators (including Sunshine Profits) fared. We are talking about predictions for the very chaotic 2011.

Friday, December 30, 2011

Gold Records 11th Annual Gain, Ends 2011 Up 11% as World Stocks Drop 8% / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Adrian_Ash

The PRICE OF PHYSICAL gold crept higher early Friday, recovering half of this week's 5% loss to near 6-month lows as the Euro currency rallied from 12-month lows and world stock markets held flat.

The last London Gold Fix of 2011 came in at $1574.50 per ounce – some 11.6% higher from the end of 2010, and recording gold's 11th year of consecutive gains.

Friday, December 30, 2011

Should Gold Investors Worry About Euro Currency Weakness? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012

By: Eric_McWhinnie

On Thursday, Italy sold 7.02 billion euros of longer-dated bonds in the country’s final debt sale of the year. Although the yield on the 10-year bond decreased to 6.98 percent from November’s 7.56 percent, there is still plenty of concern weighing on the euro. The struggling euro has given a boost to the U.S. dollar, which has weakened gold prices.

Friday, December 30, 2011

Sell Gold or Will It Outperform Again in 2012? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

In 2011 investors saw gold perform outstandingly in the quiet season in July, August. $2,000 looked a certainty before the end of the year, but then unusual forces pummelled the gold price and all other global financial markets. Shades of the credit crunch hit the markets under the title of the Eurozone debt crisis. This had been going on for the last two years, but it entered a very dangerous stage in the final quarter of 2011.