Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Saturday, December 15, 2018

Will Central Bank Save Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Central banks’ purchases create a floor for gold prices. Myth or fact? We invite you to read our today’s article about the central banks’ demand for gold and find out whether it will save gold.

Gold is an important part of central banks’ foreign exchange reserves. As of H1 2018, they hold about 34,000 tons of bullion worth $1.36 trillion, or 10.3 percent of the total reserves, according to the World Gold Council.

Friday, December 14, 2018

If You Aren’t Making Music with Commodities, Try This Song Instead / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: EWI

Cocoa's 2016-7 bear market reversal was in total harmony with one kind of analysis

If financial markets were styles of music, equities, especially the most stable Big Board stocks, are like great classical compositions: They're made up of consistent, steady tempos you could listen to all day with the occasional booming or crashing note.

Commodities are different. They're the jazz players delivering choppy, frenetic tunes with jolting chord changes.

Friday, December 14, 2018

Gold GDX Cycles from the January 2016 Lows / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: ElliottWaveForecast

EWF Lewis : Firstly, the GDX ETF was created in 2006. From there it bounced higher into the September 2011 highs. This not shown on the chart however the price trend was obviously up. The pullback lower into the January 2016 lows corrected the cycle from the all time highs. The bounce from the January 2016 lows was strong enough to suggest it was no longer pulling back lower. It ended that bullish cycle August 2016. I give Elliott Wave benefit of the doubt that was a lead diagonal up. The January 2016 low should hold in any further dip.

Thursday, December 13, 2018

Does Flat CPI in November Imply Flat Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Zero. The US inflation rate was unchanged in November. What does the flat CPI mean for the gold market?

What Happened With Inflation?

The CPI was unchanged in November, following an increase of 0.3 percent in October. It was the weakest number since March 2018, when monthly inflation fell about 0.1 percent. However, the flat reading was caused by a sharp decline in the price of gasoline – that subindex dropped 4.2 percent in November, offsetting increases in an array of prices including shelter and used cars and trucks. But the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 0.2 percent last month, the same change as in October. So, don’t worry about the upcoming deflation.

Thursday, December 13, 2018

Expect Gold & Silver to Pullback Before the Next Move Higher / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our team of researchers, at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, believe the recent upward price move in Gold has reached a level where prices will pause and retrace a bit before the next big leg higher begins.

The recent downward pricing pressures in the US and global stock markets have prompted Gold to move well above recent highs near $1242.  We predicted this move over 40 days ago with this research post.  We still believe Gold and Silver are setup for a bigger move higher, yet we believe the recent upswing will briefly pause and retrace to levels we are showing, below, before attempting a bigger move to the upside.

Thursday, December 13, 2018

The Historic Role of Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses the role of silver historically as well as recent moves in the market. Could there have ever been constructed four finer sentences strung together for the purpose of defining eight items related to money and social standing than the following?

"Gold is the money of kings. Silver is the money of gentlemen. Barter is the money of peasants. And debt is the money of slaves."

While they sound impressive, and while I understand the reason for their construct, I actually take umbrage with the linkage of debt to slavery because slavery is a man-induced condition whereby one man is responsible for the enslavement of another while debt is often (but not always) a choice made by the individual. If that were a paragraph to which I could be allowed to impart my name, I would say "And debt is the money of sloth", rather than "slave," where those that opt for debt over savings wind up with an unfavourable outcome, one connoted by the original sin of "sloth." Ergo, the alteration. . .

Thursday, December 13, 2018

Natural Gas Price Setup for a Big Move Lower / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our proprietary Fibonacci predictive modeling system is suggesting Natural Gas is about to break down below the $4.30 level and move aggressively toward the $3.05~3.25 level.  This could be an incredible move for energy traders and a complete bust for existing longs.

This Weekly Natural Gas chart is showing our Fibonacci Predictive modeling system and highlighting the lower support price targets just above $3.00.  We believe price weakness will break the $4.30 level very quickly and drive prices well below the $3.40 level – very likely towards support near $3.25 over the next few weeks.

Thursday, December 13, 2018

Is the Buyer’s Market for Silver Coming to an End? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Few markets are as depressed – and, as many analysts argue, suppressed – as silver. Prices for the white metal continue to languish in a low-level trading range amidst lackluster demand.

The upshot for investors is that they can now obtain silver bullion at both a low spot price and a low premium above spot.

How long this buyer’s market will is unknowable last. But given silver’s manic-depressive personality, prices could launch explosively higher at any time.

Thursday, December 13, 2018

Gold Price Analysis: Closer To A Significant Monetary Event / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Hubert_Moolman

Previously, I have shown how we could be close to major financial crisis with the monetary system at the center. The following chart that shows the ratio of gold to the monetary base was used:

The chart shows the ratio of the gold price to the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base back to 1918. That is the gold price in US dollars divided by the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base in billions of US dollars. (from macrotrends.com)

Wednesday, December 12, 2018

Owning Precious Metals in an IRA / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin Precious Metals Investments discusses with Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable some benefits of holding precious metals in IRAs as well as some other tax advantages of precious metals.

Maurice Jackson: Welcome to Proven and Probable. Joining us is Andy Schectman, the president of Miles Franklin Precious Metals Investments.

In our previous interview, we addressed the value propositions and opportunity of a lifetime available right now in silver and platinum. Today, we will address two very important topics regarding tax law selling in precious metals RAs.

Tuesday, December 11, 2018

The Amazing Story of Gold to Gold Stocks Ratios / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight I would like to show you some charts from the PM complex we haven’t looked at in a long time. Some of these charts will look familiar to some of our long term members as they were very helpful in the past to help us figure out what the PM complex was up to. This first chart is a ratio combo chart which has the GOLD:XAU on top and the XAU on the bottom. When the ratio is rising gold is outperforming the XAU. During the bull market years starting around 1999 or so the ratio would trade between roughly 5.10 on top, blue horizontal line, and 3.70 on the bottom, red hormonal line. When the ratio rallied up to the blue line around the 5.10 area it was a good time to back up the truck and buy your favorite PM stocks and when the ratio got down to the red line around the 3.70 it was a good time to sell your PM stocks.

Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Natural Gas Breaks Lower Towards Our $3.00 Target / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Just about seven days ago we alerted all of our followers to a massive breakdown move that was about to unfold in Natural Gas.  At that time, we predicted the price of Natural Gas would break below $4.30 and fall quickly towards the $3.00~3.20 level. Taking a look at that call now, with the price below $3.60, it seems our analysis was perfectly timed.

Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Silver Investors See Palladium as the “Canary in the Coal Mine” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

The precious metals sector has just one standout performer this year, and that is palladium. Lately the market for that metal has gotten more than just hot. Developments there could have implications for the LBMA and the rickety fractional reserve system of inventory underpinning all of the physical precious metals markets.

Monday, December 10, 2018

United States Facing Climate Change Severe Water Stress / Commodities / Climate Change

By: Richard_Mills

Whisky is for Drinking; Water is for Fighting Over

The problem of severe water stress in the United States - and elsewhere - is serious and getting worse. Water stress is what happens when the demand for water exceeds the amount available, or when poor quality restricts its use. It most commonly occurs in areas where available water supplies have been over-exploited, often due to agriculture or urban development.

Depending on diet and lifestyle, a person needs between 2,000 and 5,000 litres of water a day to produce their food and meet their drinking and sanitation requirements

Monday, December 10, 2018

Waiting for Gold Price to Erupt / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we are watching the US and global markets rotate dramatically lower over the past few days, we have been advising our members that we believe this rotation is an over-reaction to economic impetuses and trade issues – not a massive downside price break.  Overall, some of our longer-term technical indicators are currently bearish, as one would think technical indicators would react to price activity and trends.  Our ADL, predictive modeling system, is still suggesting upside price activity and we believe our research team has hit on something that helps to put this end of year turmoil into perspective.

Monday, December 10, 2018

Listen to What Gold is Telling You / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Gary_Savage

Listen to what gold is saying. It’s not deflation that we have to worry about. We’re about to enter a multi year period of rising inflation. Seriously did you think years of QE weren’t going to have consequences at some point?

For a long time I’ve maintained several key macro views.

1. Gold started a new bull market in late 2015.
2. The dollar started a secular bear market in early 2017.
3. Stocks have not topped yet. We still have higher highs ahead.

First off let’s look at the stock market.

Sunday, December 09, 2018

Gold Stocks Acting as they Should During Market Stress / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

The macro has moved through a time of moderately rising inflationary concerns when economies were cycling up, many commodities were firm and risk was ‘on’. Contrary to the views of inflation-oriented gold bugs, that was not the time to buy gold stocks.

As I have belabored again and again, the right time is when the inflation view is on the outs, gold is rising vs. stock markets, the economy is in question, risks of a steepening yield curve take center stage (the flattening is so mature now that steepening will be a clear and present risk moving forward) and by extension of all of those conditions, confidence declines.

Sunday, December 09, 2018

Palladium Shortages Expose Broken Futures Markets for Precious Metals / Commodities / Palladium

By: MoneyMetals

Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report joins me for a fascinating conversation you will not want to miss. Craig tells me why we all need to pay attention to the white-hot palladium market right now and discusses the massive physical supply shortages there that have a chance to actually break the trading exchanges. He also suggests 2019 is poised to be the best year for gold and silver in nearly a decade. So make sure you stick around for my interview with Craig Hemke, coming up after this week’s market update.

Well, it’s been a wild few days in the markets for stocks, commodities, and precious metals....

In spite of the trading week being shortened by a national day of mourning for former President George H.W. Bush, the S&P 500 experienced one of its widest weekly trading ranges of the year. Prices swung 5% from high to low, with most of that being recorded on the downside. The stock market did manage to avert a major technical breakdown Thursday, closing well above its low point.

Sunday, December 09, 2018

Is an Inverted Yield Curve Bullish for Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

In recent days we’ve seen the beginnings of an inversion in the yield curve.

The 2-year yield and the 5-year yield have inverted but not yet the the 2-year yield and the 10-year yield, the curve that is watched most. However, “2s and 10s” as bond traders would say appear headed for an inversion very soon.

We know that an inversion of the yield curve precedes a recession and bear market. That is good for Gold. But timing is important and the key word is precedes.

Saturday, December 08, 2018

Stocks Selloff Boosting Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The recent stock-market selloff is persisting, fueling mounting worries among investors.  The intensifying volatility and lack of a quick rebound higher is strangling euphoric sentiment, spawning self-reinforcing selling pressure.  Scoffed at a few months ago, the notions that a young bear market is underway and a recession looms are gaining traction.  The great beneficiary of this ominous stock-market downturn will be gold.

Gold has always been an essential asset class for prudently diversifying investment portfolios.  Uniquely it tends to rally when stock markets weaken, offsetting some of the losses in typical stock-heavy portfolios.  Gold acts like portfolio insurance, usually soaring when stock markets plunge on unforeseen news.  All throughout history, wise investors have recommended everyone have 5% to 10% of their portfolios in gold.