Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Relationship between Crude Oil Price and Oil Stocks / Commodities / Oil Companies

By: Nadia_Simmons

Although verification of the last week breakdown under important resistance line pushed black gold under $56, oil bulls didn’t give up and triggered a pullback. What does it mean for light crude? Will the relationship between crude oil and oil stocks give us more clues about future moves?

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Harry Dent’s Gold Prediction Invalidated / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

We were recently asked to comment on Harry Dent’s predictions for the gold market and we thought that our reply might benefit other gold investors as well. To be precise, we were asked about Harry Dent’s 30-year cycle that supposedly peaked in 2011, and we supposedly could expect gold to peak again somewhere between 2038 and 2040 (you can watch the interview here). The indirect implication is that gold is not likely to soar sooner and that it’s likely to decline for a relatively long time.

Mr. Dent is referring to gold as a premier commodity and he claims that it moves up and down with the commodity cycle, which, in his opinion, is 30 years.

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Gold Sector is On a Long-term Buy Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest movements in the gold and silver markets.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

What History Says for Gold Stocks in 2018-2019 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

It has been a while since we’ve applied historical analysis to the precious metals sector. It is something we really enjoy as history can help define and contextualize current trends and help us spot opportunities. Back in March of this year we noted that the gold stocks could be following the path of recovery of housing stocks since their 2009 bottom. Recently, James Flanagan of Gann Global Financial has produced some excellent videos discussing some historical comparisons that are quite relevant to the gold stocks at present. We saw his videos, remembered our housing analog and wanted to take it a step further. What was the path of recovery of markets following mega bear markets?

We define a mega bear market as at least an 80% decline that lasted roughly three to four years. The image below highlights the data we’ve compiled. Some of the bears are only two years long but they follow the general recovery path. That consists of a very strong initial rebound that lasts six to twelve months which is followed by a correction and consolidation which usually lasts 18 months to two years. Then, the market begins its next impulsive advance.

Monday, November 20, 2017

Crude Oil – General Market Link / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Thursday, the overall situation in crude oil hasn’t changed much as the commodity wavered around the January peak. Will the relationship between black gold and the general market give us more clues about future moves?

Crude Oil’s Technical Picture

Let’s examine the technical picture of the commodity (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Saturday, November 18, 2017

Perspective on the Gold/Oil Ratio, Macro Fundamentals and a Gold Sector Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Gary_Tanashian

This was going to be part of an NFTRH update, but I decided to make it public, as we’ll have plenty of other information to work on this weekend in NFTRH 474 after such an eventful market week.

With all due caveats about the non-stellar gold CoT data (we’ll update in #474) I wanted to note a constructive situation in gold vs. oil, which is a key sector fundamental consideration. Now, there is still a constructive situation in play for nominal crude oil, so take this post for perspective more than anything.

Friday, November 17, 2017

Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals Q3 2017 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have spent months adrift, cast off in the long shadow of the Trumphoria stock-market rally.  This vexing consolidation has left a wasteland of popular bearishness.  But once a quarter earnings season arrives, bright fundamental sunlight dispelling the obscuring sentiment fogs.  The major gold miners’ just-reported Q3’17 results prove this sector remains strong fundamentally, and super-undervalued.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends.  Canadian companies have similar requirements.  In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.

Friday, November 17, 2017

Mystery of Inflation and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

At the September FOMC press conference, Yellen admitted that subdued inflation was a puzzle for the Fed. She said:

“This year, the shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, when none of those factors is operative is more of a mystery, and I will not say that the committee clearly understands what the causes are of that.”

Actually, the chart below shows that inflation has been subdued for years. The last time when the CPI was above the Fed’s 2-percent target (formally set in January 2012) in a decisive and lasting way was in 2011 and at the beginning of 2012.

Friday, November 17, 2017

Crude Oil – Gold Link in November 2017 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

In recent weeks, it was hard to avoid the topic of crude oil, turning on the TV or opening a newspaper. Developments in the Middle East, escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the upcoming meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC ministers as well as the Baker Hughes reports, crude oil and its products inventories were mainly in the interest of investors.

Since our last Oil Investment Update, light crude extended gains and hit fresh 2017 highs. Black gold’s rally, which began in early October, has been mainly driven by growing indications that the crude market was finally starting to rebalance and hopes that the OPEC cuts agreement would be extended beyond March 2018.

Thursday, November 16, 2017

Gold’s Long-term Analogies / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

A daily rally in gold, daily decline, daily turnaround and other daily price developments are both interesting and dangerous. Interesting, because nothing is as exciting as a big intraday move. Dangerous, because they can make one too emotional about a given trading position and lose the focus on the big picture (forgetting about the forest by focusing on individual trees). In today’s analysis, we feature two analogies to the previous situations in gold which should make it clearer what’s likely to be seen in the coming months, even if a lot of daily price swings in both directions are about to be seen shortly.

Thursday, November 16, 2017

Here’s Why You Shouldn’t Store Precious Metals Yourself (Hint: It’s More Than The Risk Of Theft) / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: HAA

Olivier Garret : There’s nothing like holding a gold coin in the palm of your hand. So it’s not surprising that many investors prefer to store precious metals at home or somewhere nearby.

But is it worth the trouble?

While I agree that having some precious metals stored safely at home may benefit you in the event of a major crisis paralyzing the financial system, that should amount only to a small portion of your holdings.

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Did The Fed’s Alan Greenspan Admit Gold Is Being Manipulated? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Avi_Gilburt

Every now and then I see another analyst publicly claim that the gold market is being manipulated. And, the reason they come to that conclusion is because the market moved in way “they did not expect.”

Now, for those of us who are thinking people, we clearly see the issue with such a perspective. Why is it “manipulation” when an analyst is not able to recognize their own limitations?

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

These Headlines Say Gold is Building a Base for Something Big / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldSilver

It may be frustrating to watch the gold price remain dormant as stock markets continue to push higher. But while cryptos and Trump grab a lot of the headlines, you might be surprised to know there are significant forces behind the scenes that signal the gold market is not only strong but suggest something big is coming.

Check out these reports from the last 30 days and see what conclusion you’d draw…

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Is Peak Permian Only 3 Years Away? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The world’s hottest shale basin, the Permian, is leading the second U.S. wave of tight oil production growth and will continue to do so for years to come, all analysts say.   

However, signs have started to emerge that the relentless intensification of drilling leads to diminishing returns, Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said in an article this week. Pumping twice as much sand as usual into Permian wells and drilling longer laterals doesn’t deliver commensurate volumes of oil, Flowers notes.

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Protect Your Savings With Gold: ECB Propose End To Deposit Protection / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Protect Your Savings With Gold: ECB Propose End To Deposit Protection
– New ECB paper proposes ‘covered deposits’ should be replaced to allow for more flexibility
– Fear covered deposits may lead to a run on the banks
– Savers should be reminded that a bank’s word is never its bond and to reduce counterparty exposure
– Physical gold enable savers to stay out of banking system and reduce exposure to bail-ins

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Gold on the Ledge, Trend Forecast / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Bob_Loukas

This is my favorite time within any Cycle.  Mostly because it’s one of three points within an Investor Cycle where the probability of getting it right is as favorable as it will ever be.  If played correctly, it’s also the type of setup where your portfolio can be given a significant boost.  In this case, I am of course talking about the final Daily Cycle top, where the move down into the Daily and Investor Cycle Lows is often the most powerful and convincing of events.

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Silver Sign’s Confirmation & More / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Briefly: In our opinion, full (150% of the regular full position) speculative short positions in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment of publishing this alert.

In our previous free analysis we discussed the silver market viewed from the non-USD perspective and we commented on the possibility of seeing a more visible corrective downswing in the USD after it moved closer to the 96 level. In today’s essay, we would like to further elaborate on the white metal – not only because we saw another sign in the non-USD silver price, but also because we would like to reveal a technique that can tell us when the next reversal in silver is likely to take place.

Monday, November 13, 2017

The One Chart All Investors Should See Before 2018 / Commodities / Cobalt

By: OilPrice_Com

Pay close attention to this cobalt chart. Demand could be about to surge from 2k tonnes today... to over 300k tonnes in 2030.  That’s a 14,900% increase in demand.

Saturday, November 11, 2017

Gold Investment Stalled / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

Gold has largely been drifting sideways for the better part of a couple months now, sapping enthusiasm.  Gold investment demand has stalled due to extreme stock-market euphoria.  Investors aren’t interested in alternative investments led by gold when stocks seemingly do nothing but rally indefinitely.  But once stock-market volatility inevitably returns, so will gold investment demand which fuels major gold uplegs.

Like nearly everything else in the global markets, gold prices are heavily dependent on investment capital flows.  When investors are buying gold in a meaningful way, demand exceeds supply which drives gold’s price higher.  When they’re materially selling, supply trumps demand thus gold’s price naturally retreats.  The past couple months have been stuck in the middle, with gold investment flows neutral on balance.

Friday, November 10, 2017

Gold Market 2017 Will We See a Replay of 2015 and 2016? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In both 2015 and 2016, the price of gold bottomed in December, as one can see in the chart below.

Chart 1: Gold prices (London P.M. Fix) from January 2015 to October 2017.