Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Sunday, June 18, 2017

Return of the Gold Bear? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

It was exactly one month ago we discussed our posture as a “bearish Gold bull.”

The gold mining sector hit a historic low nearly 18 months ago but this new cycle has struggled to gain traction as metals prices have stagnated while the stock market and the US Dollar have trended higher. Unfortunately recent technical and fundamental developments argue that precious metals could come under serious pressure in the weeks and months ahead.

First let me start with Gold’s fundamentals, which turned bearish a few months ago and could remain so through the fall. As we have argued, Gold is inversely correlated to real interest rates. Gold rises when real rates fall and Gold falls when real rates rise.

Saturday, June 17, 2017

Reflation, Deflation and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

One of the most important economic debate today is whether the economy will experience reflation or deflation (or low inflation) in the upcoming months. Has the recent reflation been only a temporary jump? Or has it marked the beginning of a new trend? Is the global economy accelerating or are we heading into the next recession? It goes without saying that it is a key investment issue because of the implications for different asset classes, including the precious metals. Let’s try to outline the macroeconomic outlook.

Friday, June 16, 2017

Gold Bullish on Fed Interest Rate Hike / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold reversed sharply lower after the Fed’s latest rate hike this week, on heavy selling from speculators and investors alike.  Bearish sentiment flared on traders’ long-held belief that higher rates spell trouble for zero-yielding gold.  But market history reveals the opposite, that Fed rate hikes are actually bullish for gold.  This week’s Fed-induced gold dump is likely to flag gold bottoming just before a major new rally erupts.

There’s nothing gold-futures speculators fear more than Fed rate hikes.  Their rationale is simple and logical.  Gold pays no interest or dividends, it’s a sterile asset with returns solely dependent on capital gains.  So as interest rates rise and boost yields for bonds and stocks, gold struggles to compete.  Thus gold investment demand wanes as yield differentials grow between it and major competing asset classes.

Friday, June 16, 2017

Heating Oil Bottom Is In.(probably) / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Stephen_Cox

MRI Trading Signals has identified a high probability of a HEATING OIL LOW, at least for awhile.  It may be a stretch to see the nearby HON 17 (141.13) close above the previous week’s close 143.70, requiring a 2.57+ net change on Friday.  IF that happens then HO is confirming the WEEKLY TIME SETUP in the ACL and LCL Closing Line Chart Frames- 3D, 5(F)A, 13(F)a and 30(G)a to WK 07 NOV’16 and 45(G)a to WK 25 JUL’16.  

Friday, June 16, 2017

Is There Gold “Hype” and is Gold an Emotional Trade? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Very little hype in gold

– Sentiment is important in the gold market as is other markets particularly stocks

– Article ignores the large body of research showing gold is safe haven asset

– Gold may struggle to breach $1,300 in short term

– Trading gold and short term speculation is high risk and for professionals

Thursday, June 15, 2017

How Precious Metals Can Help Protect Your Wealth from Hackers / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: MoneyMetals

Could your wealth be hacked? It’s a threat most investors overlook. But they do so at their own peril.

If elections can be hacked, then so can bank and brokerage accounts, as well as any online platforms for digital currencies.

More than five months into Donald Trump’s presidency, the “Russia hacked the election” conspiracy theories still won’t go away. They’re expanding to also implicate Russian hackers for meddling in elections in France and elsewhere. The latest Russian hacking story centers on Qatar.

Thursday, June 15, 2017

Gold-Silver Ratio: Debunking The Myth / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Kelsey_Williams

A 16-to-1 gold to silver ratio has been the Holy Grail of some silver investors since the mid-sixties.

Unfortunately, fifty years later, it is a quest that continues unabated without success.

In fact, there is evidence that contradicts and widens the chasm that separates wishful thinking from reality. 

In the Mint Act of 1792, the U.S. government arbitrarily chose a 16 to 1 ratio of gold prices to silver prices.  The actual prices were set at $20.67 per ounce for gold; and $1.29 per ounce for silver.

Thursday, June 15, 2017

Charts That Explain Why The US Rule Oil Prices Not OPEC / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : There’s no end in sight to slumping oil prices. That’s good news for consumers, but a dire trend for major oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia. And now, rising US oil production and exports are contributing to the slump.

Last week, oil prices reached new lows for 2017, with Brent crude dipping below $48 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate dipping below $46. The drop has been attributed to an unexpected increase in US crude inventories.

Wednesday, June 14, 2017

DOLLAR has recently damaged GOLD and SILVER- viewed in MRI 3D charts / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Stephen_Cox

About 10 days ago MRI Trading Signals posted a FEATURED article on the bottom of our home page titled DOLLAR CROSSROAD?  In it are 20 charts showing the potential impact a Dollar Index bottom would have on Gold and other exogenous markets.

This article is an update.  So far this week, DX has traded inside last week’s narrow range.  Once that changes Gold and Silver will react- perhaps dramatically.  Tomorrow, June 14, the FOMC minutes are released.

The MRI 3D Report recommended last Wednesday evening to buy DXU17 @ 96.660 LMT with a 0.220 sized 96.440 STOP GTC.  Friday showed to be a top (temporary?), so our updated 97.070 STOP GTC was elected Sunday and we’re flat thru the FOMC.

Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Hell Freezes Over: CFTC Finds Trader Guilty of Metals Price Rigging / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: MoneyMetals

It must have been painfully awkward for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Last year, Deutsche Bank settled a civil suit involving blatant market rigging and turned over reams of information, including chat logs and voice recordings. The trove contained plenty of damning evidence which had gone overlooked by the CFTC.

Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Hit or Pass? An Overview of 2017’s Best Ranked Stocks / Commodities / Sector Analysis

By: Submissions

Subject to an entire array of occult myths, the stock market is, in fact, the platform through which companies raise money. After an IPO – initial public offering – based on the estimated value of the company at the time, the ownership is split into a number of shares. Each share is a piece of the company.

However, the primary activity of the stock market takes place after the IPO. Having been attributed a value, the shares are constantly being bought or sold on the stock market, increasing or decreasing in price. The largest markets, such as the NYSE or NASDAQ, have millions of shares issued, with thousands of investors who buy or sell in a single day. This high volume of shares that change hands means that in that particular market, it is easy to buy or sell shares.

Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Rise Gold to Recommence Work at Idaho Maryland Mine After 60 Years / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: WallStreetNation

Wednesday, June 14, 2017

In Gold we Trust: Gold Bull Market Charts and Research / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

In Gold we Trust Report: Bull Market Will Continue

The 11th edition of the annual “In Gold we Trust” is another must read synopsis of the fundamentals of the gold market, replete with excellent charts by our friend Ronald-Peter Stoeferle and his colleague Mark Valek of Incrementum AG.

Wednesday, June 14, 2017

The #1 Gold Stock of 2017 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: WallStreetNation

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

Gold and Silver at Breakout Point from 6-Year Downtrend - David Morgan Exclusive / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in our good friend David Morgan of The Morgan Report. David, it's always a real pleasure to have you on with us and I'm especially excited to talk with you about some of the topics we've got on tap today. How are you?

David Morgan: I'm doing well Mike, thank you very much.

Mike Gleason: Well, as we begin here David, I want to talk to you about the danger of complacency because I think it's a very appropriate topic for the times we're in right now. To you and me and to many others in our space with a similar world view, we see a whole slew of reasons to own precious metals. We have threats of war in many places throughout the globe. We have a president here in the U.S. who the establishment hates and is hoping to oust if they get the chance. We have nation central banks printing new fiat currency at unprecedented levels all throughout the world.

Monday, June 12, 2017

How The Smart Money Is Playing The Lithium Boom / Commodities / Lithium

By: OilPrice_Com

Lithium is the hottest commodity on the planet right now, and investors trying to profit from it don’t understand how to invest in it.

MOST ARE MAKING A CRITICAL MISTAKE and investing in the wrong companies.

That’s because, in this game, lithium GRADE is the key to profitability.

Why?  First, lithium...

Monday, June 12, 2017

Gold Price Failed to Break above 1.295.44 Resistance / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Franco_Shao

Under pressure by the resistance of the April 17 high of 1295.44, XAUUSD pulled back to 1265 and broke below the bullish trend line from the May 9 low of 1214.17 to the June 2 low of 1258.92 at 1270 on its 4-hour chart, suggesting that the short term uptrend from 1214.17 is complete.

Sunday, June 11, 2017

Gold Breakout? Not Yet / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Traders and investors noted and celebrated Gold’s alleged breakout from a its downtrend that began in 2011. Tuesday Gold closed at $1297/oz after nearly touching $1299/oz. Gold appeared to break its downtrend on the many charts that made the rounds. However, upon further inspection, there was no breakout from the 6-year downtrend on the weekly chart nor is Gold likely to sustain its strength in the days ahead.

Saturday, June 10, 2017

Gold’s “Bearish Bulls” Addressed, Now What? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Gary_Tanashian

An NFTRH subscriber named Joe, who is a former fund guy and current chart cranking, idea generating maniac (←said with admiration) came up with the term “bearish bulls” recently, by which he meant that a whole lot of people were looking down in the gold sector, especially heading into this week as the dreaded ‘GDXJ rebalance’ and then next week’s FOMC loomed.

On the former, some bounce opportunities were created in oversold companies involved in the rebalance (with bearish bulls’ short covering providing the accelerant) and on the latter, I very much expect the Fed to raise the Funds Rate next week; and so does the futures market. From CME Group…

Saturday, June 10, 2017

Gold Stocks Inflection Nears / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks remain deeply out of favor, largely shunned by traders.  Since this sector just spent the better part of a year grinding sideways, such bearish sentiment isn’t surprising.  But with a giant technical formation nearing a major inflection point, things look to be coming to a head in gold-stock land.  A big breakout is nearing, and gold stocks’ deep undervaluation relative to gold argues it will be to the upside.

Every investor’s portfolio should always include a core position in gold bullion.  As a rare asset that tends to move counter to stock markets, gold acts like insurance.  It rallies strongly when stocks and bonds are falling in serious corrections or bear markets, mitigating overall portfolio losses.  Gold certainly has risks of its own, but they pale in comparison to the additional layers of risk heaped on by gold-mining stocks.