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1.BrExit Looks Set to Win EU Referendum, Final Opinion Polls Give LEAVE Lead Over REMAIN - Nadeem_Walayat
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5.Trading BrExit - Stocks, Bonds, Sterling, Opinion Polls, Bookmaker Odds and My Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Friday, January 17, 2014

Gold Drives Silver Price - Expecting Incredibly Bullish 2014 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Zeal_LLC

Investors’ interest in silver is starting to rebound after last year’s carnage.  As capital prepares to return to this beaten-down asset, many investors are wondering how to game silver price action.  Gold is the key.  The white metal closely mirrors and amplifies the price action in the yellow one.  Gold is not only silver’s primary driver, but its overwhelmingly dominant one.  Gold is critical for timing silver buying and selling.

The more years you spend trading precious metals, the more self-evident this truth becomes.  Gold drives silver, full stop.  After my 14 years of closely watching gold and silver price action in real-time all day every day, I simply take this ironclad relationship for granted.  I can scarcely even write about silver without mentioning it in passing.  Gold drives silver is a core trading axiom much like buy low sell high.

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Commodities

Friday, January 17, 2014

Something’s Afoot in Gold and Silver Market… / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Almost unnoticed, Open Interest in gold futures has taken off spectacularly, increasing by over 35,000 contracts since the beginning of the month, which is shown in the following chart.

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Commodities

Friday, January 17, 2014

Gold Bull Market Ahead - Ten Key Charts / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: GoldCore

Mark O’Byrne writes: Today’s AM fix was USD 1,241.00, EUR 912.63 and GBP 754.68 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,237.25, EUR 908.61 and GBP 757.19 per ounce.

Gold climbed $1.90 yesterday, closing at $1,240/oz. Silver slipped $0.12 closing at $20.10/oz.

Gold bars (1 oz) premiums are between 4.75% and 5.5% and are trading at $1,309.36. Gold bars (1 kilo) premiums are between 3% and 3.5% and are trading at $41,301.81. Premiums are steady.

Gold is marginally lower today after gaining yesterday on the U.S. inflation data that showed that the cost of living in the U.S. increased by the most in six months. This increased the appeal of gold as an inflation hedge.

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Commodities

Friday, January 17, 2014

Gold Outlook for 2014 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: James_Turk

Before looking at the year ahead, it is useful to look back at the year just passed. This adage is particularly true now because little has changed. Three major markets - stocks, bonds and gold - will again be driven this year by the same forces that shaped 2013, but the outcome will be different in one key respect. This year the price of gold will rise.

In January 2013, my outlook for the year ahead focused on three specific events. These were a rising yield on the 10-year Treasury note, growth of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, and a decline in the gold/silver ratio.

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Commodities

Friday, January 17, 2014

The End of Gold and Silver Price Market Manipulation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Seasoned and long term investors are familiar with the effects of price suppression. Very few traders can manage the complex positioning required to profit from egregious interference. And the consensus is that it will go on forever, because it has. This very consensus is perhaps the most bullish reason that it simply will not.

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Commodities

Friday, January 17, 2014

Silver Prices When Monetary Demand Trumps Industrial Demand / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

It is crystal clear to anyone willing to go a few steps beyond the headlines that massive intervention and ignorance of risk act as massive governors to progress, real economic growth and natural capital formation. Nevertheless, what is less clear is how these failures will manifest in precious metals - especially the silver market.  

The catalyst for much higher prices will be of a monetary, rather than an industrial, demand-led series of events.

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Commodities

Friday, January 17, 2014

Was Mini Flash Crash Bearish for Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Submissions

Boris Mikanikrezai writes: Let me start by wishing you a very happy new year! I would like to go back on what happened on January 6, 2014.

February 2014 Gold Futures on January 6, 2014

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Commodities

Friday, January 17, 2014

Brent Crude Oil Price Faces Headwinds in 2014 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

EIA Petroleum Report

In reviewing the EIA weekly petroleum report, the oil imports figure came in at 6.889 (Million Barrels per Day) for the week ending 01/10/14. This number compared to a year ago 8.030 (Million Barrels per Day) puts a nice cap on the downtrend which really started gaining steam in 2010 onward.

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Commodities

Friday, January 17, 2014

Five Ways to Play the End of the Natural Gas Renaissance: Bill Powers / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: The_Energy_Report

Shale gas is not the foundation of U.S. energy security that conventional wisdom claims, says Bill Powers in this interview with The Energy Report. But as shale gas peters out, the law of supply and demand will drive gas prices up. Powers, an independent analyst and author of "Cold, Hungry and in the Dark: Exploding the Natural Gas Supply Myth," sees a good future for gas-leveraged junior companies, and shares his top ideas as demand and price skyrocket in tandem.

The Energy Report: Bill, you published a book six months ago, "Cold, Hungry and in the Dark: Exploding the Natural Gas Supply Myth," questioning the conventional wisdom of shale gas. Have events supported your thesis?

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Commodities

Thursday, January 16, 2014

Gold as a Deflation Hedge / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Michael_J_Kosares

(The following is the first of a five part series on how gold performs during periods of deflation, chronic disinflation, runaway stagflation and hyperinflation. The first installment examines gold’s safe-haven role during a deflationary event like the global 1930s economic depression.)

“The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history. . .But we act as though we are able to predict historical events, or, even worse, as if we are able to change the course of history. We produce thirty-year projections of social security deficits and oil prices without realizing that we cannot even predict these for next summer — our cumulative prediction errors for political and economic events are so monstrous that every time I look at the empirical record I have to pinch myself to verify that I am not dreaming. What is surprising is not the magnitude of our forecast errors, but our absence of awareness of it.”

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Commodities

Thursday, January 16, 2014

Investors Having No Exposure to Energy Risk is Risky / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: Marin_Katusa

Because Marin Katusa is the foremost expert on all things energy, I’ve been eager to pick his brain for our subscribers. Marin, an accomplished investment analyst, is the senior editor of Casey Energy DividendsCasey Energy Confidential, and the Casey Energy Report. He is also a regular commentator on BNN and other major media outlets.

Dennis Miller: Marin, welcome. Thank you for taking the time to share your knowledge with our subscribers.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 16, 2014

Junior Gold Mining Stocks Have Bottomed / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

There is no need to beat around the bush. Junior mining stocks have bottomed. The bear market is over. Sure we could be wrong. We’ve been wrong before and will be again. However, the evidence is too compelling and is growing by the day.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 16, 2014

Options Market Forecasting Future Gold Price Action Direction / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Submissions

Boris Mikanikrezai writes: I discuss how the gold options market is pricing calls and put to gauge traders’ sentiment and figure out whether gold option traders are biased for downside or upside price action.

Let's use risk reversals to assess the future evolution of precious metals. The risk reversal in options market can be defined as the implied volatility on call options minus the implied volatility on put options, both with the same delta and maturity.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 16, 2014

Natural Gas Price Looking Bullish / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Gregor_Horvat

It's been a while since I looked at Natural gas. But, I see some nice price action now, so I decided to share it. There was a nice three wave decline from the high followed by an impulsive rally above the upper trendline of a corrective channel. That's a bullish pattern that is pointing back to 4.58. Any short-term retracement back to 4.210/250 should be corrective and temporary.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Gold Contrarians’ Wildest Dream Coming True / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Jeff_Clark

As most readers know, Doug Casey's most notable characteristic as an investor is his highly successful contrarian nature. It's how he bagged some of his biggest wins—not just doubles and triples, but 10- and 20-fold returns.

There's only one way to realize these kinds of gains: You must buy when the asset is out of favor. Buying an investment that has already run up is at best chasing momentum and at worst a portfolio wrecker.

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