Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Sunday, July 05, 2020

Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve / Commodities / Market Manipulation

By: Kelsey_Williams

Some gold bulls have bought in heavily to the argument that gold price suppression has been an ongoing activity for years, even decades. Supposedly, trading in the gold market is manipulated in ways that depress the market price for gold.

Assertions are made that the manipulation takes place in a shroud of secrecy; and the unexpected lower prices for gold, or prices that don’t meet wildly bullish expectations, are cited as evidence of conspiratorial activity.

The claim is made that the price of gold would be much higher if this manipulative trading activity were exposed, acknowledged, and prohibited. But…

Friday, July 03, 2020

Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Formulating a Trend Forecast

It is clear that Silver is NOT Gold, so NOT to make the mistake of looking at what Gold has done and thinking Silver will replicate that move, it rarely does! At best Silver tends to play catchup towards the end of precious metals bull trends.

Silver is in a strong bull trend off the March low that is targeting resistance at $19 and then $20, beyond which lies $21. The big question mark is can Silver break above resistance or not. Balance of evidence suggests Silver's going to correct before it is able to clear resistance.

Friday, July 03, 2020

Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Clive_Maund

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts his expectations for how silver prices will respond to movement in the stock market.

Much of what is written in the parallel Gold Market update is equally applicable to silver and it will not be repeated here.

Although silver has picked up significantly since its March low it has greatly underperformed gold over the past two years. But this is normal during the earliest stages of a major sector bull market, when gold is favored over silver.

On its 20-year chart we can see that silver remains stuck within a giant base pattern that started to form as far back as 2013. This chart makes clear that once gold breaks out to new highs against the dollar, then silver should break out of this base to enter a dynamic advancing phase.

Friday, July 03, 2020

Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold has broken out from a two-month-long consolidation (from $1680 to $1770), but the other precious metals markets have not confirmed Gold’s strength.

The gold stocks (GDX, GDXJ) remain below their May highs while Silver remains below significant, multi-year resistance around $18.75. Silver closed Monday at $18.06.

Furthermore, Gold, when priced against foreign currencies, has not broken out. This move has been driven mostly by dollar weakness.

Friday, July 03, 2020

Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

We all fear the second wave of infections. But the U.S. hasn’t even controlled the first one! Bad news for Americans, but good news for gold.

Please take a look at the chart below. As you can see, the epidemiological situation in the United States does not look well. The number of new daily confirmed Covid-19 cases has been rising again since mid-June, which means that coronavirus is far from being contained. Actually, the number of new cases has almost reached a new record level!

Thursday, July 02, 2020

Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

One of the most telling patterns in Gold over the past 6+ months has been the “washout low” price rotation pattern after establishing a momentum price base.  It seems as though every time Gold completes one of the moderate-low price rotations, as we call it a “washout low rotation”, it sets up for a new momentum rally to a new momentum price base.

We believe July and August 2020 could prompt a series of these types of rotations as Gold attempts a move above $2100 or higher.  Allow us to explain our thinking as we explore this price pattern a bit further.

The first thing we need to realize is that Gold is nearing the $1900 level as it continues to push higher.  This is a very significant level for Gold because it would be very close to breaking the 2011 all-time high level near $1917.90.  As gold creeps higher because of perceived risk factors in the global markets, once Gold price levels break above $1850, then the rally to levels above $1900 is almost certain to drive investors into the precious metals markets at a much faster pace.  Psychologically, once Gold rallies above $1850 with the US stock market trading near all-time highs – something has to break. The disconnect between Gold (risk protection) and the valuation of equities (the stock market) are not aligned.

Wednesday, July 01, 2020

Gold Stocks Still Undervalued / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold miners’ stocks rocketed out of mid-March’s stock panic, breaking out to major new bull-market highs in mid-May.  Such blisteringly-fast gains, and gold stocks’ upleg stalling out since, have left many traders nervous about this sector.  Calls for a serious selloff are mounting.  But arguing in favor for more near-term gains to come, gold stocks never grew overvalued in this post-panic upleg and are still undervalued today.

The recent gold-stock action is best understood through this sector’s most-popular benchmark, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  Holding the world’s biggest and best gold miners, it dominates gold-stock-ETF capital flows.  GDX’s world-leading $15.1b in net assets this week are triple the size of its little-brother GDXJ mid-tier gold miners ETF!  No other gold-stock ETFs come remotely close to GDX’s scale.

And the major gold stocks of GDX have been on a wild ride in recent months.  As gold itself got sucked into mid-March’s stock panic, which was fueled by fears of the economic impact of COVID-19 lockdowns, the gold stocks plummeted.  GDX collapsed 38.8% in 0.6 months into mid-March.  And the final couple days of that were technically a full-on crash, a 20%+ cratering in 2 days.  GDX crashed 24.5% in that span!

Wednesday, July 01, 2020

High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

During the coronavirus crisis many people couldn’t find physical gold, as there was a bullion shortage at dealerships. And these lucky individuals who managed to obtain bullion had to pay high premiums. We invite you to read our today’s article about the high premiums in physical gold market during the pandemic and find out whether they were indicated scam or supply crisis.

Gold is expected to serve as a safe-haven asset. But during the coronavirus crisis many people couldn’t find physical gold, as there was a bullion shortage at dealerships. And these lucky individuals who managed to obtain bullion had to pay high premiums. What a safe haven that people can’t find? And does not the price divergence between physical and paper gold show the price manipulation in the latter market? Let’s analyze what really happened in the bullion market during the coronavirus crisis.

Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

IMF predicts deeper global recession and slower recovery, just as I expected. Good news for gold.

The June edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Report Update is out! The main message is that the IMF predicts now even a deeper recession than two months ago.

As a reminder, in April edition of the World Economic Outlook Report, the IMF projected that the global economy would contract sharply by 3 percent this year, while the U.S. economy would plunge 5.9 percent. When it comes to 2021, the IMF projected 5.8 percent growth for the global economy and 4.7 percent for the U.S.

Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Silver Is Still Cheap For Now / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Silver is still near all-time lows in many ways. One of the most significant measures wherein silver is at an all-time low, is its price relative to the amount of US dollars (US monetary base) in existence.

Below, is a long-term chart of the silver price relative to the US monetary base:

Monday, June 29, 2020

Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

What do snapping turtles and long-time investors have in common? Sector expert Michael Ballanger explains.

The Weekly Missive, which usually arrives over the weekend (sometimes on Friday, sometimes on Sunday) was delayed this weekend for one reason: I had to change it.

I started out last week with an idea that was leaning in the direction of full-on capitulation in the sense that this latest, three-month, Fed-fueled rally was beginning to smell like 2009 and 2002 and 1988. All occurred after precipitous market plunges; all were the direct result of Fed policy actions; and all obliterated the shorts.

I have been very successful in 2020 in moving into markets gripped with fear and moving away from markets obsessed with greed, but of those two emotions that have always been the "controllers" of markets since the late 1800s, greed absolutely conflagrates during Fed "printing" orgies, while fear dissipates into only minor outbursts of selling. This has been the exact playbook by which the Fed (totally owned and operated by a consortium of publicly traded banks) has been able to change the "rules of engagement" by which traders and investors have operated since inception.

Monday, June 29, 2020

Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We warned about this move many months ago and just 6 days ago we issued a research post suggesting Gold had cleared major resistance and would start a rally mode to push above $2000 – possibly above $2100.  Well, guess what happened right after we made that statement? Yup – Gold started to rally higher and is currently trading near $1790 – about to break $1800 for the first time in 2020.

You can read some of our most recent Gold articles below:

June 3, 2020: Gold & Silver “Washout” – Get Ready For A Big Move Higher

June 18, 2020: Gold Has Finally Cleared Major Resistance – Time For Liftoff

June 20, 2020: All That Glitters When The World Jitters Is Probably Gold

Saturday, June 27, 2020

Gold, Copper and Silver are Must-own Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

Gold surged on Monday after a spike in coronavirus cases worldwide dashed hopes of a quick economic recovery. Within 24-hours the number of infections globally rose 183,020, a new record, the World Health Organization reported, Reuters said the US saw a 25% increase in new COVID-19 cases over the week ending June 21st. 

Saturday, June 27, 2020

Why People Have Always Held Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

The current phase of the gold bull market, which started last year, is – we believe – the third and final wave of the secular bull run tracking back to 2001.

It's going to create a tidal bore of immense size and power. A wave that those who hold the metal (and silver) can ride as insurance against state-sponsored value-destruction of a country's currency, and as real money that cannot and has not ever gone to zero in recorded history.

It could last 3 or 4 years, until the end of this decade... or beyond.

Saturday, June 27, 2020

Crude Oil Price Meets Key Resistance / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Crude oil moved above the previous highs and at the moment of writing these words, it’s testing the upper border of the March price gap. And given the fundamental news that are reaching (and likely to reach) the market – the increasing Covid-19 cases in the U.S. and globally – it seems that black gold might not have enough strength to keep pushing higher.

Thursday, June 25, 2020

Gold’s Long-term Turning Point is Here / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Historical precedents are in many a technician's toolbox – and it's a tool they reach for with success repeatedly. Does the yellow metal offer any interesting parallels?

Gold had declined and it recovered, but the above simply prolongs the 2008-2020 analogy; it doesn’t invalidate it. Today, gold is attempting to break above the previous highs, but it’s not being successful in that.

Thursday, June 25, 2020

Don’t Expect an Uneventful Summer for Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Bullion premiums have been drifting lower in recent weeks after spiking earlier this spring. That in part reflects a waning of fear among investors… and a hope for markets and the economy returning to normal as we head into the summer.

But make no mistake, these are NOT normal times.

Not with some parts of the economy still locked down. Not with the Federal Reserve embarked on an unlimited Quantitative Easing program that will dwarf all others that came before it. And not with the fabric of American society being ripped apart by radicals who are bent on erasing history and fomenting a race war.

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Silver Price Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Long-term Trend Analysis

Silver faces very heavy overhead resistance from $18 all the way to $21 which means that it is going to be tough going and take significant effort for Silver to reach let alone breach $21. Whilst there is strong support at $16 and $14.5 (ignoring the crash low of $11.64).

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Trillion-dollar US infrastructure plan will draw in plenty of metal / Commodities / Infrastructure

By: Richard_Mills

Donald Trump appears to have torn a page from Ahead of the Herd’s manual for recharging the US economy. 

In an earlier article we said what the global economy really needs, in this low-growth, spending-stalled environment brought about by the pandemic, is a push - something big that will attract huge amounts of investment, and workers. As we have suggested, this could be a massive infrastructure spending program, on the scale of President Roosevelt’s “New Deal”.

Not coincidentally - we like to think Trump reads AOTH - the administration is said to be preparing a nearly $1 trillion infrastructure proposal – some of the dollars are geared toward 5G/ Broadband - as a way of spurring the world’s largest economy back to life. US GDP growth fell 5% in the first quarter and when second-quarter economic output figures are released, they will be far worse, likely double-digit.  

Fortune Magazine reported A preliminary version being prepared by the Department of Transportation would reserve most of the money for traditional infrastructure work, like roads and bridges, but would also set aside funds for 5G wireless infrastructure and rural broadband, the people said...

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

All That Glitters When the World Jitters is Probably Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The economic pressures and concerns within the global markets have not abated just because the US Fed has ramped up the printing presses. Inversely, the stock market price levels may be elevated based on a false expectation of a quick recovery and of future expectations that may be very unrealistic.

In terms of technical analysis, Gold has set up a very interesting sideways basing pattern after recently breaking above a major resistance channel near $1720.  Our research team believes the recent base in Gold, near $1720 to $1740 is setting up just like the 2005 to 2007 peak in the US stock markets – just before the Credit Crisis hit in 2008.  We believe the similarities of the current and past events, in price and in technical/fundamental data, are strangely similar.