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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Sunday, July 30, 2017

368 TRILLION Reasons the Fed Won’t “Normalize” Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Graham_Summers

Many commentators are baffled as to why the Fed has suddenly reversed course. Throughout 2017 the Fed has talked repeatedly about raising rates several times as well as shrinking its balance sheet.

Then in the span of a single month, the Fed just about dropped all of this. Fed Chair Janet Yellen, speaking to Congress, confessed that the Fed is just about done with rate hikes and that any balance sheet reduction will NOT be used to drain liquidity from the system.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 27, 2017

Why Surging UK Household Debt Will Cause The Next Crisis / Interest-Rates / UK Debt

By: GoldCore

– Easy credit offered by UK banks is endangering “everyone else in the economy”
– UK banks are “dicing with the spiral of complacency” again
– Bank of England official believes household debt is good in moderation
– Household debt now equals 135% of household income
– Now costs half of average income to raise a child
– Real incomes not keeping up with real inflation
– 41% of those in debt are in full-time work
– £1.537 trillion owed by the end of May 2017

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Central Banks ARE The Crisis / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Raul_I_Meijer

If there’s one myth -and there are many- that we should invalidate in the cross-over world of politics and economics, it‘s that central banks have saved us from a financial crisis. It’s a carefully construed myth, but it’s as false as can be. Our central banks have caused our financial crises, not saved us from them.

It really should -but doesn’t- make us cringe uncontrollably to see Bank of England governor-for-hire Mark Carney announce -straightfaced- that:

“A decade after the start of the global financial crisis, G20 reforms are building a safer, simpler and fairer financial system. “We have fixed the issues that caused the last crisis. They were fundamental and deep-seated, which is why it was such a major job.”

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Interest-Rates

Friday, July 21, 2017

Are Central Bankers Secretly Terrified? / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Graham_Summers

Central Bankers are absolutely terrified.

In the last month, both Fed President Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi have issued somewhat hawkish statements, only to turn around within 48 hours and walk back their comments.

Again, two of the most powerful Central Bankers in the world couldn’t even last three days being hawks.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 20, 2017

The Fed May Show Trump No Love / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Peter_Schiff

Typically, U.S. Presidents are wary of claiming stock market performance as a referendum on their success. Most have seemed to understand that taking credit also means accepting blame, and no one would want to make the tortured argument that the positive moves reflect well on their presidency but that the negative moves do not. But Donald Trump has shown no reluctance to make any argument that suits his political purpose of the day, no matter its absurdity, and no matter if he has to contradict the arguments he made last year, or last week. Perhaps he assumes, as most investors seem to, that the risks are minimal because the Federal Reserve will jump in to save the markets if things turn bad. But in binding his performance so closely to the markets he overlooks the possibility that the Fed will be far less charitable to him than it was to Obama.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 20, 2017

The Student Loan Bubble and Economic Collapse / Interest-Rates / Student Finances

By: Antonius_Aquinas

The inevitable collapse of the student loan “market” and with it the takedown of many higher educational institutions will be one of the happiest and much needed events to look forward to in the coming months/years. Whether the student loan bubble bursts on its own or implodes due to a general economic collapse, does not matter as long as higher education is dealt a death blow and can no longer be a conduit of socialist and egalitarian nonsense for the inculcation of young minds.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, July 14, 2017

Subprime Auto Loans Up, Car Sales Down: Why This Could Be Good for Gold / Interest-Rates / Auto Sector

By: HAA

The latest monthly motor vehicle sales report released on July 3 paints a grim picture for US car sales. Overall June sales dropped by 3% compared to June of last year—the sixth successive month of lower year-over-year sales.

General Motors, Ford, and Fiat Chrysler were among the greatest losers with declines between 4.7% and 7%. Japan’s top sellers fared a little better, with Nissan seeing 2% growth and Toyota a 2.1% gain.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, July 09, 2017

Did Junk Bonds Just Signal the End to This Credit Cycle? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

Stocks are now in very serious trouble.

The S&P 500 has fallen to test its “election rally” trendline. If the market breaks down here, there’s essentially one giant “air pocket” down to 2,200 or so.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, July 07, 2017

If The Fed’s Members Spent Some Time As Uber Drivers, Our Monetary Policy Would Be Saner / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : John Mauldin wrote a letter last year called “Life on the Edge” that I think was one of his most important ever. It drew more reader feedback than anything else of John’s I’ve seen.

Drawing on Peggy Noonan’s Protected vs. Unprotected theme, John described how our economy has left so many people behind. Their anger, much of it well-justified, is one reason Donald Trump is now president.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 06, 2017

Italy Has Ignored ECB Regulations And Bailed Out Its Banks Again / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2017

By: John_Mauldin

By Xander Snyder : The Italian government has bailed out its banks again. Unwittingly, it has shown just how ineffective the European Central Bank is.

Rome recently finalized a deal to save one of the country’s largest and most important commercial banks, Monte dei Paschi di Siena. In another deal, Intesa Sanpaolo, a much more stable bank, will bail out Veneto Banca and Banca Popolare di Vicenza.

Both agreements involve Italian government funds and prevent senior creditors from incurring losses. That skirts the European Union’s strictest banking regulations, which allow Brussels to impose losses on senior bondholders.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 05, 2017

Fed Officials Say More Hikes Are on The Way, Markets Disagree / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: MoneyMetals

By Clint Siegner : Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen says she is planning more hikes in the Fed funds rate, but you wouldn’t know it by watching the markets. So far, the response in foreign exchange, bonds, and equities isn’t what people expected.

Markets have always been notorious for behaving unpredictably.

But in an age when central bankers micromanage virtually all markets, the behavior could be the result of careful planning. Maybe the recent market action was only unpredictable for those of us outside of the FOMC conference room.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 05, 2017

Will Trump Fire Yellen or Vice Versa / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Michael_Pento

Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index just hit its lowest level since August 2011. But this level of disappointment has ironically emboldened the Fed to step up its hawkish monetary rhetoric. The truth is that the hard economic data is grossly missing analyst estimates to the downside as the economy inexorably grinds towards recession. This anemic growth and inflation data should have been sufficient to stay the Fed's hand for the rest of this year and cause it to forgo the unwinding of its balance sheet.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, July 03, 2017

NY Fed President Just Admitted Ignoring The Bond Market… I Have A Theory / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

Speaking at a Business Roundtable event, New York Fed President William Dudley reportedly expressed great confidence in both the economy and the Fed’s policy moves.

Dudley is not even slightly concerned about the Fed’s overshooting with its rate hikes. In fact, he is supremely confident that inflation will overshoot if the Fed doesn’t tighten policy.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, July 02, 2017

Central Bankers Just Lit the Fuse on a $217 TRILLION Debt Bomb / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2017

By: Graham_Summers

As we noted yesterday, the world’s Central Banks have begun sending signals that the price of money in the financial system (bond yields) is going to be rising.

Why is this a big deal?

Because globally the world has packed on $68 TRILLION in debt since 2007. And ALL of this was issued based on the assumption that bond yields would be remaining at or near record lows.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, July 02, 2017

Janet Yellen Just Said The Most Ridiculous Thing We’ve Heard All Year! / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Jeff_Berwick

Of all people, the last person you should ever ask about what is going to happen in the economy is a central banker or a Keynesian economist.

They are, after all, communists trying to centrally plan the economy. Commies are always clueless about economics.

And, their track record of predicting the economic future is almost perfect in that they almost always say “this time things are different” just moments before another crash happens.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, July 01, 2017

Sovereign Debt Jubilee, Japanese-Style. The US National Debt / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2017

By: Ellen_Brown

Japan has found a way to write off nearly half its national debt without creating inflation. We could do that too.

Let’s face it. There is no way the US government is ever going to pay back a $20 trillion federal debt. The taxpayers will just continue to pay interest on it, year after year.

A lot of interest.

If the Federal Reserve raises the fed funds rate to 3.5% and sells its federal securities into the market, as it is proposing to do, by 2026 the projected tab will be $830 billion annually. That’s nearly $1 trillion owed by the taxpayers every year, just for interest.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 29, 2017

The Fed Is Pursuing An After-Me-The-Deluge Monetary Policy / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Mauldin

I think there is a mixture of political bias and legacy-building that is driving Federal Reserve policy. The simple fact is that the Fed should have been normalizing interest rates starting in 2013.

Fifty basis points a year, and we would be at 2% now. That is not exactly a torrid rate-hike path. It cannot be seen as putting your foot on the brakes. It’s simply moving to normalize a situation that everybody realizes is abnormal.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Here’s Why Robots Should Take the Fed’s Job / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates again last week.

Higher rates aren’t entirely bad. They might help savers holding cash—though I wonder why anyone would still hold cash after almost a decade of punishment. The Fed has forced Americans into riskier assets, using every tool but horsewhips.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

We Are Witnessing the Largest Twin Bubbles in History / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2017

By: John_Mauldin

BY STEPHEN MCBRIDE : In the coming years, we will have to deal with the largest twin bubbles in history. It’s global debt (especially government debt) and the even larger bubble of government promises.

Together, these twin bubbles make up what John Mauldin calls “The Great Reset.” Nobody can tell how this crisis will play out, but one thing is for sure, it will affect everyone in a big way.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

The Federal Reserve And Drug Addiction – A Prediction / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Kelsey_Williams

The Federal Reserve Bank was established in 1913. Its stated purpose was to control the economic cycles; more specifically to avoid panics and crashes by smoothing out the variances in the stages (prosperity, inflation, recession, depression) of the economic cycle.

The plan centered around control (expansion and contraction) of the money supply and exertion of any influence it could muster regarding direction (up, down, or stable) of interest rates. 

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