Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Thursday, May 14, 2009
Withering Green Shoots of Recovery Send Stocks Reeling / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
The bulls immaculate recovery lost its virginity yesterday, as news of record home foreclosures and signs of belt tightening by the all-important US consumer, in the form of very disappointing weak retail sales, sent US stocks tumbling.
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Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Technical Leading Stock Market Indicators That Professional Investors Look At / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Professional investors have an advantage for a lot of reasons. One reason is because of the amounts and types of data they look at.
One thing that professional investors keep an eye on is the volume of Advancing and/or Declining shares every day.
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Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Downward Pressure Building for S&P 500 Stock Market Index / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
In the May newsletter, I indicated that major indexes were expected to retest their march lows by early July. Models were suggesting that the highest probability of renewed weakness could be expected in mid-May. Though the actual change in trend has not quite occurred, the bullish attitude and trading over the last 2-3 days for the benchmark S&P 500 has clearly shifted to a more bearish tone.
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Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Pullback Within Incomplete Upleg for Financial XLF ETF / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks
Let's have another look at the pattern that is unfolding in the Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF), which is my proxy for determining whether or not to enter its inverse ultrashort counterpart, the UltraShort Financial ProShares (NYSE: SKF).
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Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Breaking News: Imminent Big Bank Failure on Overnight Bank Loan Failure / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2009
Jim Willie of the Hat trick Newsletter has just sent an urgent message of a potential imminent big bank failure that would be expected to hit the financial markets hard - message as follows -
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Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Stock Market SP 500 Index Important Technical Trading Signals / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Time to Take Another Look at the SP 500. The SP 500 index is caught between two trend lines that are the dominant technical indicators right now for this market. If either gives way, it will point the direction of the next major swing.
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Wednesday, May 13, 2009
How to Make Money Shorting Japan’s Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Japanese Stock Market
Tony Sagami writes: I spend so much time crowing about great investing opportunities in Asia that I’m worried you may think stock market profits are practically guaranteed.
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Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Another Yo-Yo Day For Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
A lacklustre, see-saw day of modest gains for the blue chip Dow, while the Nasdaq felt some pain. A near term sell-off back to the mid-low 800s for the S&P 500 is still very much on my mind, but while this is very tradable, I do not think that it is the start of a big sell-off to fresh lows; that will come when the data turns and there are no signs of that yet. This, I feel, is about a month away.
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Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Current Stock Market Rally Within Supercycle Stocks Bear Market Part 2 / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Continued from Part 1 - GDP Continues To Accelerate Its Decline
The Commerce Department recently revised gross domestic product (GDP) downward for the fourth quarter of 2008. It shows the nation’s output of goods and services declined at a 6.3% annual rate, adjusted for inflation, from the previous quarter. It is clear confirmation that the recession is accelerating. Real GDP declined at the sharpest rate since 1982, while nominal GDP (no inflation adjustment) declined at the sharpest rate since 1958. The biggest hit to GDP came from the 4.3% annualized drop in consumer spending, the largest component of GDP. Business and residential investment also had large declines, and the deepening global recession took a toll on U.S. exports.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Current Stock Market Rally Within Supercycle Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Confirming our long-standing forecasts:
• Notwithstanding normal fluctuations in economic data, the U.S.-led global recession continues to accelerate to the downside.
• GDP, corporate earnings, house prices, and auto sales are still dropping sharply.
• Efforts to replace the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency have begun.
• Bob Bronson wins a 10-year bet on calling the Supercycle Stock Bear Market
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Money Markets Mayhem Continues! / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2009
Nilus Mattive writes: Although Wall Street has been partying like it’s 1999 or 2007 or some other happy time, I recently saw yet another stark reminder that our recent financial crisis did in fact just happen … and that the dangers were real and long-lasting and still far from over.
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Tuesday, May 12, 2009
More Stock Market Headwinds to Worry About / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
On the way into the office this morning, I was listening to CNBC radio on Sirius Satellite. In that 7 minute drive, I think I heard the word "inflation" about 15 times. With year over year CPI virtually at zero, I am not sure what the worry is all about. This is the reality. Inflation is low.
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Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Cash Starved Companies Will Swamp the Bear Market Rally with New Shares / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Everyone's getting very excited about all these 'green shoots' all of a sudden. George Soros reckons that the "economic freefall has stopped, the collapse of the financial system has been averted".
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Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Stock Markets Don't Like Mondays / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
So too far, too fast, was the verdict, or was it simply the proximity to key chart levels, like this year’s high at 944 on the S&P 500 that did the damage? Either way, the optimists will still see this as base building and the pessimists will view it as a sign of a stalling rally. A chunky give back day as investors frowned on the prospect of rights issues by four banks (Capital One, KeyCorp, US Bancorp & BB&T) to repay the TARP and worries that like Paulsen before Treasury Secretary Geithner his more a slave to Wall St than a servant of Main St America with news of a last minute shady deal to dilute the stress tests (reducing the amount of capital the banks have to raise) making then less credible.
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Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Stock Market-Long-Waves Say...Negligible Risk of Major Reversal Before Dow Crosses 10,000 / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market
At Davos, Professor Nouriel Roubini declared that US banks were insolvent. On 14th March he declared that the incipient US stock market rally was a "dead-cat-bounce-sucker-rally" that would be overturned by the terrible economic prospects.
Last time I looked the Dow was almost 30% up on 9th March, which puts it well out of normal dead-cat-bounce territory (the "bounce" is typically dictated by how far they fall (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9749.html)).
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Tuesday, May 12, 2009
ETF's Directional Vectors Chart / Stock-Markets / Exchange Traded Funds
In the physical world, movement has two key properties: Direction and Magnitude. If we think of price patterns shown on charts in a physical world way, we can assign Direction and Magnitude to each chart.
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Monday, May 11, 2009
Stock Market S&P 500 Index Rolling Price Returns from 1926 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
This chart presents the 12-month rolling price return of the S&P 500 from January 1926 through April 2009. It also shows the 3-year, 10-year and 83-year averages of the 12-month rolling price return.
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Monday, May 11, 2009
Is the Financial Crisis Really Over? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2009
It has long been my contention that we are entering an extraordinary period of time in which using historical analogies to plot market behavior is going to become increasingly problematical. In short, the analogies, the past performance if you will, all break down because the underlying economic backdrop is unlike anything we have ever seen. It makes managing money and portfolio planning particularly challenging. Traditional asset management techniques just simply may not work. Buy and hope strategies may be particularly difficult to navigate.
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Monday, May 11, 2009
What You Can Learn from the Greatest Stock Market Rally Ever / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The Great Reflation has begun.
All of the massive fiscal and monetary stimuli start to hit the markets. They’re starting to hit the economy too, although to a much lesser extent. And the bulls are off and running. It’s the Great Reflation.
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Monday, May 11, 2009
Making Profits From Stock, Forex and Bond Market Trading Cycles / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
Larry Edelson writes: These days, it seems like many investors have forgotten that it’s ok to try and make some money. Almost everyone I know is playing it ultra safe instead. But with interest rates so low, you’re making less than 1 percent a year on your savings!
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