Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Crude Oil Large Speculators Play Catch a Falling Knife / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Dan_Norcini

Another week – another CFTC report – more of the same, namely the large speculative category, hedge funds and other reportable traders, continue their love affair with crude oil. This, in spite of the fact that the black goo has lost 50% of its price since June of this year.

I have said now for the last few weeks and will say it once more, I am completely mystified and baffled as to how the supposedly smartest and most informed traders on the planet could have gotten this market so wrong. Not only that, but that they continue to stay wrong!

Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Gold Price Trend Forecast 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Nadeem_Walayat

There is no metal quite like gold as history shows that humans have a special attraction towards gold as this metal like a parasite has held power over humanity far beyond any rational importance as a resource, even to the extent that hundreds of thousands have been put to death in its pursuit, even whole civilisations extinguished so that GOLD could adorn the GOD temples of Europe and elsewhere. Today's GOLD obsession manifests itself in the Gold bug army that relentlessly chants its second coming with never changing prophecies of Gold's eventual rise to new highs. And as it was for 2013, so were the expectations for 2014 for the price of Gold to soar into the stratosphere bitcoin spike style with the 2011 high of $1901 merely acting as a stepping stone all the way to $5,000, then $10,000 and beyond.

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Gold Price Nearing a Critical Juncture / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Submissions

MarketsToday writes: About six weeks ago XAU/USD (Gold) broke down from a long-term bearish descending triangle pattern, as it dropped below, and subsequently closed below 1,180.20 on both a daily and weekly basis. The price objective from the triangle pattern is approximately 926.65. So far there has been little downside follow through as support was found 1,132.08 shortly after the bearish breakout, and Gold has been rebounding back into resistance of the triangle pattern since.

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

How Could Gold Bugs Have Been So Wrong in 2014? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: John_Rubino

Twelve short months ago, the immediate future looked like a lock. Overvalued equities had to fall, ridiculously-low interest rates had to rise, and beaten-down precious metals had to resume their bull market.

The evidence was overwhelming. Debt in the developed world had risen to $157 trillion, or 376% of GDP, by far the highest level on record and clearly unsustainable. Long-term US Treasury rates had been falling for literally three decades and despite a recent uptick were so low that the only way forward seemed to be up.

Monday, December 29, 2014

Did Saudis And US Collude In Dropping Crude Oil Prices? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The oil price drop that has dominated the headlines in recent weeks has been framed almost exclusively in terms of oil market economics, with most media outlets blaming Saudi Arabia, through its OPEC Trojan horse, for driving down the price, thus causing serious damage to the world's major oil exporters – most notably Russia.

While the market explanation is partially true, it is simplistic, and fails to address key geopolitical pressure points in the Middle East.

Monday, December 29, 2014

Sound Money and the Ring of Truth / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Submissions

Guy Christopher writes: We Americans no longer carry gold and silver money in our pockets and purses as our grandparents did during their lives. But we still carry the history, legacy and spirit of those gold and silver coins in our language – with more meaning than you might imagine.

“Sound money” has a clear message recognized for centuries around the world. It describes the musical, metallic ring of a gold, silver, or copper coin dropped on any hard surface of glass, stone, wood, or metal. Sound money literally refers to real wealth, with a natural, unmistakable signature of honesty and integrity, as opposed to the swishy paper and plastic debt used almost exclusively today.

Monday, December 29, 2014

Gold Price Rallies With USD Above 90 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Briefly: In our opinion no speculative short positions in gold, silver and mining stocks are currently justified from the risk/reward perspective.

The USD Index moved slightly above the key, long-term resistance level but gold rallied by almost $20 on Friday. We have seen several bearish signs in the precious metals market recently – is the above bullish enough to make the overall outlook for the precious metals market bullish?

Monday, December 29, 2014

Gold and Silver Price Will Return to Highs in 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Money_Morning

Peter Krauth writes: Precious metals haven't grabbed dramatic headlines like oil and gas have.

But their story is no less exiting. And the metals remain a fundamentally critical part of the global economic and strategic landscape.

Indeed, gold and silver took roller coaster-like rides throughout the year, both screeching towards their respective price lows before bouncing, albeit cautiously, ahead.

Monday, December 29, 2014

Counting Your Chickens in Dollars  / Commodities / Fiat Currency

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

With silver, you have a rare physical commodity that you can literally take into your possession.

It’s known that quantity, in investment form, is far less than what is perceived by the mainstream. And as a direct consequence, orders of magnitude less than the price indicates.

Saturday, December 27, 2014

2015 Crude Oil Prices Won't Change the Emerging U.S. Dominance / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: My recent meetings in Dubai highlighted the profound change that will turn the balance of power in the energy industry on its head.

For years, OPEC was the puppet master, and the United States (and the rest of the world) were the puppets. They pulled the strings, and we danced. OPEC set the price of oil. OPEC controlled the supply.

Saturday, December 27, 2014

The Surprising Connection Between Solar Stocks and Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Solar Energy

By: Investment_U

Rachel Gearhart writes: The impact of the drop in oil prices can be seen across the market. But there’s one affected area that surprises investors the most: solar stocks.

This week’s chart compares U.S. crude futures to the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN) over the past three months.

Friday, December 26, 2014

Gold Miners Extremely Oversold as Tax Loss Selling Ends / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Another December and gold stocks have reached another extreme oversold condition. This was the case precisely 365 days ago and the precious metals complex, led by the miners rebounded strongly for nearly three months. A year later and the gold stocks are even more oversold. They’ve been in a bear market for more than three and a half years and in terms of price are very close to matching the worst bear market of all 1996-2000. Only time will tell if this is truly the end of the bear market but in any case miners have a shot to start 2015 off positively.

Friday, December 26, 2014

The Fracking Boom is a Fracking Bubble / Commodities / Fracking

By: Walter_Brasch

Gas prices have plunged to the low $2 range—except in Pennsylvania.

In Pennsylvania, the prices at the pump are in the mid-$2 range.

That’s because Gov. Tom Corbett and the legislature imposed a 28-cent per gallon surcharge tax. Until 2019, Pennsylvanians will be paying an additional $2.3 billion a year in taxes and fees—$11.5 billion total—to improve the state’s infrastructure. In addition to the increased tax on gas at the pumps, Pennsylvania motorists will also be spending more for license registrations, renewals, and title certificates.

Friday, December 26, 2014

A Gold Stocks Golden Opportunity On Hope’s Doorstep / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014

By: Richard_Mills

Some 1,200 junior resource exploration and development companies are located in Vancouver, British Columbia. Vancouver is well known as a hub for mining expertise and is one of the greatest mining centers in the world.

Not many of those 1200 companies can claim to have a mine, let alone one  with:

Thursday, December 25, 2014

The Gold Price Target... Merry Christmas / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Rambus_Chartology

I have a busy night ahead but I just wanted to post a few long term charts to show you the relative nature of a chart pattern. I know most of you know that the bigger the consolidation or reversal pattern the bigger move to expect. If one is looking at a minute chart and see’s a triangle the move is relative to that time frame. On the other end of the spectrum when you see a big reversal pattern, that takes a year or longer to complete, then you know the move is not going to be a flash in the pan. When looking at a big impulse move from the monthly perspective I like to use the black and white candlesticks that will general confirm the impulse move your are expecting or are currently in.

Thursday, December 25, 2014

Gold and Silver Unworthy / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Jesse

The New York and London gold and silver markets have gone into an interesting state, wherein much is claimed, but little is ever allowed to leave.

New York and London ought not to be permitted to set prices for the world using the power of the United States Dollar.

Thursday, December 25, 2014

The Chinese Copper Elephant / Commodities / Copper

By: Richard_Mills

Wood MacKenzie sees stronger prices for copper.

"Over the last 10 years, copper's annual average growth rate in demand has been 13% for China. The annual growth rate over the next five years is going to be 5%. Over the last 10 years, average annual copper consumption has been 600,000 tonnes, and going forward it's going to be 500,000 tonnes..." - Northern Miner

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

8 Billion Reasons to Invest in Potash / Commodities / Potash

By: Metals_Report

Potash producers have 8 billion reasons why demand for the minerals that increase food production will grow in the coming decades. Plus, a sinkhole emerging under a Russian mine is raising questions about the ability to produce enough fertilizer to feed what is projected to be an even larger and more demanding global population. The right companies could reap the benefits of exposure to the agricultural market. In this interview with The Mining Report, Paradigm Capital Analyst Spencer Churchill shares some of his favorites and talks about a unique streaming model that benefits from immediate upside.

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

In 2015 the U.S. Will Elbow OPEC Oil to the Sidelines / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: My recent meetings in Dubai highlighted the profound change that will turn the balance of power in the energy industry on its head.

For years, OPEC was the puppet master, and the U.S. (and the rest of the world) were the puppets. They pulled the strings, and we danced. OPEC set the price of oil. OPEC controlled the supply.

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Crude Oil, US National Debt, and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: DeviantInvestor

Examine the following chart of monthly crude oil prices. In the past 26 years crude oil prices have crashed 65%, 59%, 54%, and 76%. The current crash is about 51% so far.