Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, March 16, 2014
Gold Continues Higher as Mining Stocks Outperform / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Gold continued punching higher after its breakout, but the less talked about story might be the performance of the mining stocks this year, which has been fairly impressive. I have intraday commentary and some relative performance charts on that here.
With silver lagging a bit it looks like a 'safe haven' trade so far, and some of it has to be a relief rally from the incredibly pounding that the metals have taken since the Germans asked for the return of their gold bullion in late 2012. That apparently tipped over someone's punchbowl, and they unleashed the dogs of currency war.
Sunday, March 16, 2014
Monster Silver Price Rally Brewing / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
On silver's 1-year chart we can see that a fine large Double Bottom is completing. We already had the breakout on good volume from the 2nd trough of this Double Bottom in the middle of February, and it was this event that has (rightly) caused traders to pile into silver, although the price hasn't moved much - yet. The better silver stocks, on the other hand, are already on fire, because the "writing is on the wall". Right now the price is consolidating following the breakout in a fine tight Flag formation, from which upside breakout looks imminent.
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Sunday, March 16, 2014
Gold Stocks Golden Rocket – Best of the Breed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Gold and gold stocks have be stabilizing for months and have been quietly rising. Many gold stocks are up 30% even 50% in the past three months. The $HUI AMEX Gold Bugs Index is up over 30% from the lows.
If you think you have missed most of the move already you are wrong. The truth is most of the biggest rallies in stocks take place after a basing pattern with 30 -50% or more has formed. This is signaling massive accumulation in gold stocks and its happening right now by the institutions.
Saturday, March 15, 2014
Gold And Silver - Start Watching Fed's Fiat 'Dollar' More Closely For Clues / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Saturday The Ides of March 2014
For the past several weeks, our commentaries have dwelled on factors unrelated to what so many other writers have focused, primarily demand from a variety of sources, shrinking supply of physical at COMEX and LBMA, lots of charts and graphs to make interesting presentations, but none of those factors have been instrumental in moving gold and silver to higher levels. Our take has been the suppression of gold and silver has come from the elites running the central banks, and by extension, all Western governments.
Saturday, March 15, 2014
Gold for Investors In Need of Financial Safety / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Gold is a safe haven
The emerging market turmoil in January got the safe haven ball rolling. The slowing U.S. economy then added another boost, especially with Yellen keeping the same policies as Bernanke.
And now geopolitical concerns, like the crisis in Ukraine, are giving gold yet another safe haven push upward.
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Friday, March 14, 2014
Gold and Silver Prices To Rise As The U.S. Economy Disintegrates / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
As the U.S. economy continues to disintegrate, increasing numbers of investors will be forced to move out of paper assets and into physical gold and silver to protect their wealth. At first the move will be slow, but as Americans wake up from four decades of fiat monetary amnesia, it will turn into a torrent.
Unfortunately, there won't be much in the way of physical precious metals to "GET" at this time, as the clever Chinese and Easterners already cleared most of the shelves. However, Americans will still be shocked and stunned that they didn't see this big transfer of wealth coming..... and there is a good reason for that. Brain damage.
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Friday, March 14, 2014
Gold Price Rebound Driven by Big Futures Buying / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Gold’s strong rebound upleg this year has been driven by big gold-futures buying. After abandoning gold last year, American futures speculators are returning to the yellow metal in droves. These capital inflows are a very bullish harbinger, as major futures buying is the primary fuel for young gold uplegs before investors return to take the baton. And this big gold-futures buying is likely less than half done!
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Friday, March 14, 2014
The Best Case For Gold In Years: World War III / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
The Ukraine is a cesspool of geo-political posturing, and it poses a great danger to our society. What is going on in the Ukraine is openly admitted by mainstream media to be largely helped along by US taxpayer money via government. This involvement by the US, on Russia's border, is really an act of war. As The Guardian wrote in 2004:
"[...]the campaign [Orange Revolution] is an American creation, a sophisticated and brilliantly conceived exercise in western branding and mass marketing that, in four countries in four years, has been used to try to salvage rigged elections and topple unsavoury regimes[...]The Democratic party's National Democratic institution, the Republicn party's International Republican Institute, the US state department and USAid are the main agencies involved in these grassroots campaigns as well as the Freedom House NGO and billionaire George Soro's open society institute."em>
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Friday, March 14, 2014
Gold, Silver, Blind Men and Golden Elephants / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
"The first rule of mainstream financial journalism and, particularly, financial journalism about gold is never to put a specific critical question about the monetary metal to any of the primary participants in the gold market, central banks. That is, nearly all gold market reporting is, by design, irrelevant distraction at best, disinformation at worst." -Chris Powell, Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee
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Friday, March 14, 2014
Gold Price Storms Through $1350 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Last Monday gold ended a week-long consolidation that saw it fall from $1354 to $1329, before rising strongly to over $1370 yesterday. Not only is Asian demand still outstripping mine supply by a large margin, but physical ETFs such as GLD are now beginning to see more buyers than sellers, and so are no longer a source of supply.
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Friday, March 14, 2014
Bearish Banks Help Fuel Gold’s Meteoric Run / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Just when you thought the last of the big institutional banks were ready to throw in the towel on their bearish metal forecasts, yet another one has joined the ranks of the gold bears.Morgan Stanley was the latest to enter the fray on Monday when it lowered its gold price forecast for 2014 and 2015 in a research report. The group based its lower forecast on the expected impact of reduced monetary stimulus combined with increased regulatory pressure on investment banks to reduce the scale of proprietary commodities trading.
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Thursday, March 13, 2014
Breakout in Gold Price and Gold Mining Stocks! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Lately we’ve been writing about why we expected the rebound in precious metals to continue without any serious setbacks. After a major low, sentiment can remain muted for several months even in contrast to the improving market action. Yet, a look at history shows that rebounds from major lows can continue unabated and unscathed for more than a year. The rebound in precious metals thus far appears to be following this script. It has received a further boost with the breakout in Gold yesterday and as of now, the breakout in the gold miners.
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Thursday, March 13, 2014
The Silver Storage Myth / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
I have often heard some “experts” explain how much space it takes to store physical silver in comparison to gold. For example, they say if the gold silver ratio is (GSR) is 50 to 1, it takes 50 times more space to store the physical silver over the same value of gold. While the GSR is valid for comparing the price of the two metals, it only makes up part of the equation on the space it takes for storage. What is often overlooked is the density of the metals. The density of pure gold is 19.3 which equates to:
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Wednesday, March 12, 2014
The Case for Gold Right Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
With special thanks to the St. Louis Federal Reserve and its FRED charting software.
Published with permission. These charts update automatically.
'A picture is worth a thousand words'
This collection of charts is for those who do not like a lot of verbiage to justify an investment decision -- just the facts. Two primary themes drive the specific chart selections presented here:
First, it is clear that none of the factors which caused the financial crisis of 2008 have been addressed in any sustainable fashion by those charged with setting economic policy. Explosions in both the monetary base and reserve bank credit show they have simply been 'papered-over' - a far-cry from a lasting solution. In fact, one could argue (and many have) that such policies may one day fuel a second tier to the crisis even more damaging than the first.
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Wednesday, March 12, 2014
Copper Price Breakdown Means Short Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Briefly: In our opinion short speculative positions (half) in silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
There were basically no changes in gold, silver and mining stock charts yesterday, except for gold moving slightly higher on news about increased tensions in Ukraine. Gold's reaction was once again weak.
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Wednesday, March 12, 2014
Three Reasons to Buy Gold Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: When it comes to gold bullion prices, despite their mere 10% climb since the beginning of 2012, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see gold bullion prices increase even further. With this, companies producing or looking for the precious metal are still presenting a great buying opportunity.
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Wednesday, March 12, 2014
Copper Price Crash / Commodities / Copper
It seems like yesterday that we were being constantly barraged with stories in the media of vandals ripping up and stealing copper pipes, wires, etc. from housing projects, airports and the like. With the price of copper down over 40% from its peak in 2011 those stories are few and far between.
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Wednesday, March 12, 2014
Gold Price 14 Years and Three Patterns / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Gold peaked in August of 2011 and fell erratically into December 2013.
Was that the end of the collapse, or is there more downside coming in gold prices?
Bearish Scenario: Listen to the banks who are forecasting weak prices in 2014 and thereafter. "Nothing to see here folks, the dollar has weakened drastically since 1971, gold sells for 30 times its 1971 price, but it's all good. Just move on and pretend... Gold will drop below $1000 before you can say 2016 elections..."
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Tuesday, March 11, 2014
Gold Price Uncertainty, the Fix and the Quantum / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Does one of the great mysteries of the universe shed light on allegations surrounding the Gold Fix? Or is it the other way around?
When Werner Heisenberg looked at his brand new quantum formulae in 1927, he noticed something weird.
The world of very small spaces and particles is ruled by matrix mechanics, but as you may remember from your school mathematics, in matrix multiplication (A * B) * C is not the same as A * (B * C). What Heisenberg saw was that because of the difference in the two matrix products there would always be uncertainty as to key physical properties of a particle. His discovery forbids a particle from having both precisely defined motion and precisely defined position at the same time.
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Tuesday, March 11, 2014
Gold's Bull Days Are Back? Making Green from Gold, Palladium and Pollution / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Gold is coming back with a vengeance, experiencing a clear recovery and grabbing the attention of market cynics. Analysts from Noruma Securities even upgraded its outlook for gold, expecting bullion to climb over the next three years, according to Barron's.
Nomura analysts attribute their increased gold forecast to real interest rates that "don't seem to be heading anywhere at the moment." In addition, there appears to be "long-term demand support from Asian nominal income growth, an evolving post-QE macroeconomic environment and lower disinvestment potential."
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