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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 25, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond 10-Year Yield Is Heading Up Above 6% / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Andrew_Butter

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe last time the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury dipped below 2% was in 1941; just before (not just after), the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.

Perhaps then the recent 1.8% low was not just because of Euro-refugees, perhaps we are on the cusp of another Black Swan tail-risk potentially as devastating as World War II? Or perhaps there is another explanation?

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

US Public Debt Growing at Unsustainable Rate / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Colin_Twiggs

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe often blame Fed monetary policy for the GFC, with interest rates at exceptionally low levels leading to "Greenspan's bubble." Treasury was just as culpable, however, with the massive 2004-2005 surge in public debt flooding the market with liquidity. The repeat in 2008-2011 was more justifiable: the spike in public debt was necessary to offset the sharp decline in private (non-financial) debt which would have caused a deflationary spiral. The effect was to smooth out the fall in total domestic debt (public and private) and create a relatively "soft" landing for the economy.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Peak Imbalances Are Falling, New Bear Market in Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Fred_Sheehan

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe topic at hand is the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, its falling price, and consequent rising yield. The ten year was trading at a 2.03% yield on March 9 and rose to 2.38% on March 19, 2012. These things happen and the ten-year may fall back to a price and yield that satisfies central bankers and Wall Street. Nevertheless, the era of artificially low government bond yields is coming to a close.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Fed Spreading Financial Cancer That's Killing the Markets and Democratic Capitalism / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhile the vast majority of commentators look at the market action of the last three months and celebrate, I cannot help but shudder. The reason is that the stock market has been propped up solely by Central Bank and/or Federal Government intervention or the hope of more intervention.

That alone is worrisome as it indicates the stock market no longer cares for economic or financial fundamentals (something that has been clear for several years now).

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 19, 2012

Are the Efforts of the World Central Banks Working? / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed is not the world's only central bank dealing with debt. Watch as Steve Hochberg, EWI's chief market analyst, shows what has happened to GDP in countries around the world as other central banks try to "inject liquidity" into the system.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 19, 2012

Is There a Bubble in U.S. Treasury Bonds? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Shedlock

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article... Explaining the 2011 Treasury Rally (It's Not What You Think); Where to From Here?

People have been calling a bubble in treasuries for at least a decade. The shocking result, especially to hyperinflationists, has been a stair-step decline in yields for 30 years. That's quite a long time.

Here is a chart going back 20 years from Steen Jakobsen at Saxo bank in Denmark.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 19, 2012

American's Asleep At the Wheel Driving Into Debt Slavery / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: James_Quinn

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAmericans have an illogical love affair with their vehicles. There are 209 million licensed drivers in the U.S. and 260 million vehicles. The U.S. has a higher number of motor vehicles per capita than every country in the world at 845 per 1,000 people. Germany has 540; Japan has 593; Britain has 525; and China has 37. The population of the United States has risen from 203 million in 1970 to 311 million today, an increase of 108 million in 42 years. Over this same time frame, the number of motor vehicles on our crumbling highways has grown by 150 million. This might explain why a country that has 4.5% of the world’s population consumes 22% of the world’s daily oil supply. This might also further explain the Iraq War, the Afghanistan occupation, the Libyan “intervention”, and the coming war with Iran.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 18, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Sell Off / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSlightly off topic Macro View this week as I really want to study the movement in treasury. The 10 year treasury yield is currently 2.30% which from an historical standpoint is very low. But a 33 basis point rise in one week is significant (100 basis points equal 1%). If the sell off in treasury accelerates things can get out of hand in very short order.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 18, 2012

The Fed Gets Creative, Buying Long-term Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Alasdair_Macleod

According to a story in Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal, the US Federal Reserve is considering buying long-term Treasury and mortgage bonds in return for deposits held at the Fed. There has been no comment from the Fed and the story might have been no more than a trial balloon, in which case Bernanke and Co may be considering skewing the yield curve so that long-term bonds are less attractive than the time-preferences set by the market.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 16, 2012

Lesson from Tracking the U.S. 10-Treasury Note Yield / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Asha_Bangalore

The 10-year U.S Treasury note yield is trading at 2.28% as of this writing, little changed from 2.29% yesterday. But, this is a 25 bps uptick in two trading days, given the March 12 closing quote of 2.04%. The reasons listed for the sharp sell-off are – the less dovish policy statement of the Fed, February retail sales numbers, the success of the stress test of the largest 19 banks of the nation, the resolution of the Greek debt crisis, the improvement of employment conditions seen in the February employment report, the optimism from equity price rally, and so forth. The main takeaway is that as the list of positive economic signals grows, long rates move up in a hurry.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 15, 2012

The Big Fat Greek Lie Is Now Obvious to Spain… So Who’s Next to Debt Default? / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe big fat Greek lie being spread throughout the financial community is that Greece has been saved. It’s a lie for the following reasons:

1)   Greece did in fact default

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Are U.S. Interest Rates About To Rise? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Marty_Chenard

Will Interest Rates jump higher?

It could happen, as you will see on today's weekly chart of the 10 year yields .... symbol: $TNX.

The good news is that today's 10 year yield chart shows a five down trend. The bad news is that the one year weekly trend line is breaking out to the upside.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Global Economic Slowdown Paves Way for QE III / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Michael_Pento

Back in early 2011, I was one of the few economists to warn that global GDP growth would slow dramatically in the near future and that the emerging market economies would not be immune from that upcoming contraction. My prediction was based on the premise that the then incipient sovereign debt crisis in the developed world would cause the export-driven BRIC economies to stall. We now know that the Japanese economy is contracting, while Europe's GDP is falling off a cliff. And just last week we received more concrete evidence that emerging market economies are starting to feel the pinch from the developed world's debt crisis.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

U.S. Student Debt To Reach $1.4 Trillion by 2020 / Interest-Rates / Student Finances

By: EconMatters

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleStudent loan debt is surging, partly boosted by many who became unemployed during the Great Recession going back to school hoping for a better job prospect.  An analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) showed that student loan debt stands at $870 billion nationally, surpassing the nation’s outstanding balance on auto loans ($730 billion) and credit cards ($693 billion) as of third quarter, 2011.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Central Banks Beat Up on Private Creditors / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Browne

Last week the Greek government, with the heavy handed support of its larger friends in the Eurozone, succeeded in coercing some 85.8 percent of private sector bondholders to "voluntarily" exchange €206 billion-worth of Greek sovereign bonds for newer bonds with longer maturities, lower coupon rates, and a face value of 53.5 percent less than the original paper. The benignly termed "haircut" (more accurately described as a "scalping") is particularly painful for those buyers who were literally strong armed by their own governments into buying Greek bonds in the hopes of achieving regional financial stability.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Eurozone Debt Crisis: Hope for the Best, Plan for the Worst / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Axel_Merk

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen Greece's woes first rattled the markets two years ago, the pundits predicted a collapse of the euro.

The resilience of the euro has been due to a number of factors, not least of which is that the eurozone as a whole has a broadly balanced current account. As such, a misbehaving bond market doesn't necessarily cause a plunge in the currency, as foreign buyers are not required to fund a deficit or protect against currency weakness.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

European Countries Lining Up to Debt Default / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleToday's Outside the Box comes to us from Grant Williams, who covers the world from his perch in Singapore, in his always instructive and always entertaining Things That Make You Go Hmmm... I felt for him right at the outset today, because (like yours truly) he was trying really hard ... not to talk about Greece.And so, he announced, he was going to talk about Spain and about oil; but then, before he even made it through his opening paragraph, there was this:

"... ahhhh NUTS! They did it AGAIN.... ok... the Greek restructuring. It's not as though I could ignore it, now, is it? ... Oil can wait until next time.... no doubt it'll be an issue then too."

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

European Sovereign Debt Crisis Will Take Years to Play Out / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJerry del Missier, co-chief executive officer of Barclays Capital, spoke to Bloomberg TV's Trish Regan and Adam Johnson today. Del Missier said that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe will take "years to play out" and that the Volcker Rule could "significantly dislocate" some markets for Barclays.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 12, 2012

Get Ready to be Disappointed With "Sterilized" QE3 / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Ashvin_Pandurangi

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe other big "risk on" news last week, aside from a coercive Greek debt restructuring that was completed "successfully" (but will only make Greece's public debts larger and less sustainable), was a rumor that "sterilized QE3" may be launched by the Fed in the near future (as in, at their meeting this week). The original Wall Street Journal piece by Jon Hilsenrath about this "new novel" program contained precious little in the way of details, yet the pundits and the markets obviously love to jump on the irrational bandwagon first and ask questions later. I, for one, am still very skeptical that the Fed is either able or willing to launch further QE this month. 

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 11, 2012

There Will Be Euro-zone Debt Crisis Contagion, The Next Greek Tragedy / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article… (December 11, 2009) – Greece's prime minister, George Papandreou, told reporters in Brussels on Friday that European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker see "no possibility" of a Greek default, Bloomberg News reported. Papandreou also said that there was no possibility of Greece leaving the euro area, according to the report.

… (January 29, 2010) – There is no bailout and no "plan B" for the Greek economy because there is no risk it will default on its debt, the European monetary affairs commissioner, Joaquin Almunia, insisted on Friday.

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