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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

The Anatomy of Sovereign Debt Default / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2012

By: Michael_Pento

The three primary factors that determine the interest rate level a nation must pay to service its debt in the long term are; the currency, inflation and credit risks of holding the sovereign debt. All three of those factors are very closely interrelated. Even though the central bank can exercise tremendous influence in the short run, the free market ultimately decides whether or not the nation has the ability to adequately finance its obligations and how high interest rates will go. An extremely high debt to GDP ratio, which elevates the country’s credit risk, inevitably leads to massive money printing by the central bank. That directly causes the nation’s currency to fall while it also increases the rate of inflation.  

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

PIMCO Total Return Bond ETF (NYSE: BOND): Bill Gross’ Foray into ETFs Living Up to Hype / Interest-Rates / Exchange Traded Funds

By: Benjamin_Shepherd

I’m usually skeptical of exchange-traded fund (ETF) launches that are preceded by a lot of hype; generally, the harder a company works to promote a new exchange-traded product, the less value there is to it. And for the better part of the month leading up to its launch, PIMCO Total Return Bond ETF (NYSE: BOND) garnered quite a bit of attention for being bond maven Bill Gross’s inaugural effort in the ETF space.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 16, 2012

The Pain in Spain is too Big to be Contained / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: PhilStockWorld

Depression.

Not the Economy (yet) but how I feel so far in my weekend reading. Even John Mauldin had to go against his wishes to ignore Spain this week now echos my thoughts on the subject in an excellent overview of the situation. Russ Winter has s similar view in "Bernanke and Germany Wake up to a Merda Storm" and Mish discusses Spain's emergency ban on cash transactions exceeding 2,500 Euros in an effort to clamp down on tax evaders and stop the rapid flow of money out of the country as well as the massive jump in Bank of Spain borrowing from the ECB.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, April 14, 2012

Recent Federal Budgetary Trends: Facts, Not Opinions / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

The federal budget deficit reached its widest gap on a 12-month moving total basis in February 2010 at $1.478 trillion. Although remaining at astronomical levels, the budget deficit has been trending lower and stood at $1.246 trillion in March 2012. The year-over-year growth in the 12-month moving total of federal outlays peaked at 19.7% in July 2009. In March 2012, the year-over-year change in the 12-month moving total of federal outlays was minus 1.1%. The median growth in the year-over-year moving total of federal outlays from December 1955 through March 2012 is 6.6%.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, April 13, 2012

Different Opinions on Near Term Monetary Policy Prevail Within the FOMC / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Asha_Bangalore

Fed officials have voiced different opinions about the direction of monetary policy in the past two days. Among FOMC members who are wary of the current stance of Fed policy, President Kocherlakota of the Minneapolis Fed indicated the Fed needs to commence reversing the extraordinary accommodation in the next six to nine months.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, April 12, 2012

Whither U.S. Treasury Bond Yields After Operation Twist? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Fed’s monetary policy accommodation in the form of two rounds of quantitative easing (QE) and the current Operation Twist (OT) that is underway have provided support for economic activity and helped to stabilize the financial system. Operation Twist will be completed as of June 2012. QE1 and QE2 led to higher Treasury note yields followed by a reduction in yields as the two programs were completed (see Chart 1). Operation Twist has succeeded in establishing a firm floor for rates, but on the expiration of the program as of June 2012, the future is uncertain.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

We Are Nearing the End Game of Central Bank Intervention / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2012

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBecause of a lack of foreign interest in long-term Treasuries, the Fed decided to step in to pick up the slack. As a result of this, the US Federal Reserve has accounted for 91% of all new debt issuance in the 20+years bracket. Put another way, the US Federal Reserve is now effectively the long-end of the US debt market.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

LTRO 3 likely before any U.S. QE3 / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Tony_Caldaro

In January we reported the following: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2012/01/30/feds-monetary-base-update/. The FED’s monetary base did make a new high, in February at $2.753 tln, but appears to have ended well short of our $3.0 tln expectation. Since then the monetary base has contracted by nearly $100 bln. The recent high, in OEW terms, may have completed Primary wave III. This would suggest the base in now contracting in a Primary wave IV.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, April 08, 2012

The Worst of All Monetary Policies, The Boom That Must End in Depression / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Thorsten_Polleit

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI. Monetary Expansion Is Kept Going

In monetary analyses, the balance sheet of the commercial banking sector is typically kept separate from the balance sheet of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). However, combining the two balance sheets might be much more informative.

First, adding up the business volumes of commercial banks and the Fed provides a (much) better insight into the expansion of the monetary sector as a whole over time — especially so in times of the financial and economic "crisis."

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, April 05, 2012

Why the ECB Expanded Its Balance Sheet By Over $1 trillion in Less Than Nine Months / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBetween July 2011 and today, the ECB has expanded its balance sheet by an incredible $1+ trillion: more than the Fed’s QE 2 and QE lite combined (and in just a nine month period).

This rapid and extreme expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet (again it was greater than QE lite and QE2 combined… in nine months) indicates the severity of the banking crisis in Europe. You don’t rush this much money out the door this fast unless you’re facing something very, very bad.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, April 05, 2012

The Student Loan Bubble is the Next Subprime Trillion Dollar Sinkhole / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2012

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: Don't look now but there's another giant bubble out there. It's so big it rivals subprime.

I'm talking about the student loan bubble. Recently, the outstanding volume of student loans passed $1 trillion. What's more bothersome is that the average individual amount owed by new college graduates has passed $25,000.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 04, 2012

Fed Actions Speak Louder Than Words / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Axel_Merk

Investors may be taken for a ride by today's Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which expand on the FOMC's March 13, 2012 statement; in the interim, we believe the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Bernanke has gone out of his way to assure the markets that monetary policy will remain "highly accommodative," at least through late 2014.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 03, 2012

Italian Bonds/Economic Data/Materials Raise Caution Flag / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Chris_Ciovacco

Our models remain bullish longer-term, but we have some concerns on a shorter-term time horizon. The yield on a ten-year Italian bond has crept back up over 5%, a level which was last seen just prior to recent corrections/big drops in stock prices (see purple arrows below). Economic data has started to weaken relative to expectations in a similar manner to what we saw in spring 2011 (blue arrow below).

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 02, 2012

German Bunds Interest Rate Yield Pressing Support / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Starting a new month and a new quarter, U.S. 10 year YIELD remains rangebound, but looking like it is in a down-loop towards 2.00% again.

In our comparison chart between U.S. and German yield, notice that German 10-year yield is pressing against its key support plateau, and looks like it is about to break down, which probably is a warning either that some other negative surprise is approaching in Europe, or that the German economy is about to sputter -- or both. All of this will negatively impact U.S. growth and press Treasury yield lower, also impacting the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT).

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 29, 2012

The National Debt Clock is Ticking / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Mario_Innecco

U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner said yesterday that the U.S. won't hit the debt limit (ceiling) unitl late in the year. Zerohedge has projected that the debt limit of $16'394 billion will be hit on September 14th, 2012. Presently the National Debt is at $15'596 billion according to the debt clock.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Martin Armstrong on the Sovereign Debt Crisis / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2012

By: Ron_Hera

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Hera Research Newsletter is pleased to present a fascinating interview with Martin A. Armstrong, founder and former Head of Princeton Economics, Ltd. In the 1980s, Princeton Economics became the leading multinational corporate advisor with offices in Paris, London, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney and in 1983 Armstrong was named by the Wall Street Journal as the highest paid advisor in the world.

As a top currency analyst and frequent contributor to academic journals, Armstrong's views on financial markets remain in high demand. Armstrong was requested by the Presidential Task Force (Brady Commission) investigating the 1987 U.S. stock market crash and, in 1997, Armstrong was invited to advise the People's Bank of China during the Asian Currency Crisis.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 29, 2012

US Economy Hits Another Roubini Road-Hump: Is This The End? / Interest-Rates / US Economy

By: Andrew_Butter

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNouriel Roubini made his name out of a paper he co-authored in 2003 with someone whose name I forget, and everyone else did too. His thesis then was that the U.S. Current Account deficit (basically a long word for the trade deficit in Goods and Services) was unsustainable, so there would be a meltdown.

He was actually wrong for the right reasons; his idea was that the demand for U.S. Treasuries by foreigners was not enough to finance the Trade/Current Account Deficit, that part was right.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 29, 2012

ECB’s Cheap Funds – Waiting for a Turnaround in Lending / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe European Central Bank’s (ECB) financial accommodation through the longer-term refinancing operation (LTRO) in December 2011 and February 2012 amounting to over 1 trillion euros has stabilized financial markets. But, the desired impact on bank lending is not visible yet. Granted, it is a bit too soon to expect positive signs, but it is an important aspect to track in the near term. The objective of LTRO’s is to prevent a severe disruption of the flow of credit to businesses and households. The February LTRO reached a larger number of institutions compared with the December package and included expanded collateral that enabled smaller financial institutions to participate.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Bill Gross on Bernanke Rolling Out QE3 in April / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePIMCO founder and co-CIO Bill Gross spoke with Bloomberg Television's Margaret Brennan today, telling Bloomberg TV that the Fed will likely shift focus to mortgage securities to keep borrowing rates low when Operation Twist ends in June.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

What Causes Interest Rates to Rise / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

The prevailing notion among the main stream media and economists is that interest rates are rising because of improving economic growth. But like many of the readily accepted tenets of today’s world of popular finance, this too has its basis in fallacy.

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