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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 01, 2013

Bernanke’s Gift - Tempering the Taper Tantrum / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Michael_J_Kosares

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve on Wednesday slightly downgraded its economic outlook but gave no hint about its plans for its $85 billion-a-month asset purchase program. The statement released after a meeting of the Fed’s policy making committee said that the economy was expanding at a “modest” pace, a change from the “moderate” pace seen in June. The Fed also noted that the rise in mortgage rates was a concern. It also said that persistently low inflation was a risk. There was only one dissent, by Kansas City Fed President Esther George.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Bernanke the Candyman as Detroit Declares Bankruptcy / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: John_Mauldin

By Grant Williams

Who can take tomorrow
Dip it in a dream
Separate the sorrow
And collect up all the cream?
The candyman, the candyman can
The candyman can 'cause he mixes it with love
And makes the world taste good.
And the world tastes good 'cause the candyman thinks it should.

 –   "The Candyman", Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

What to Expect From the Fed FOMC Meeting: Looking for QE Clues / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Money_Morning

Gary Gately writes: Don't expect a definitive answer from this week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on when the Fed will begin tapering its massive quantitative easing program.

Instead, the focus will be on the FOMC's statement, which will be scoured for clues about when scaling back QE3 could begin.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, July 27, 2013

Despite Declining Deficit, Foreigners Aren’t Bailing Us Out, So the Fed Will Keep QE Going / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Casey_Research

By Bud Conrad, Chief Economist

The basic imbalance driving our economy is the government deficit, which spun out of control as a result of the Credit Crisis of 2008/9. But the sequester, improving tax base, lower interest rate, and elimination of stimulus spending have caused the big government deficit, while still extreme, to drop to half its previously nosebleed levels.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Eight More U.S. Cities on the Verge of Bankruptcy / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Money_Morning

Detroit is the largest municipal default in the history of the US. The city owes $9.2 billion in pensions, $1.9 billion to creditors and is $18.5 billion in debt.

The city's infrastructure is collapsing. Almost half of its streetlights are not working and aren't being repaired.

The average time for Detroit police to respond to an emergency is just under an hour. Crime has spiked. Many in the city have resorted to carrying firearms for their personal protection.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

After 32 Years Bond Bull Market is Officially Dead / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Martin Hutchinson writes: I'm announcing that the 32-year bull market in bonds is officially dead. Be prepared for the consequences from rising interest rates in 2014. They could be catastrophic for bond market investors.

Higher bond rates look enticing, like they'll provide you with more income. But as interest rates move up, the value of bonds goes down. It's an inverse relationship. The value of your fixed-income portfolio could be devastated if rates rise rapidly beginning next year. Start protecting your portfolio today.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

What the Detroit Bankruptcy Means for Municipal Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

David Zeiler writes: You can't blame investors in municipal bonds for being worried about how the Detroit bankruptcy will affect the muni market - it's by a factor of four the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history.

Last Thursday Detroit filed for Chapter 9 bankruptcy to seek relief for $18 billion in debt obligations, a debt driven primarily by years of soaring public pension obligations and shrinking tax revenue.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, July 22, 2013

The End of QE - What Ben Bernanke Is Really Saying / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Ever wonder what Bernanke is saying? Well, it boils down to this: at the same time that Jimmy Carter says the US doesn't have a functioning democracy, Ben Bernanke says the US doesn't have a functioning economy.

Unfortunately, people understand what Carter says, though they may not agree with him, but they do not understand what Bernanke says, and that has nothing to do with agreeing with him or not. Moe likely it has something to do with the illusionary oracle qualities once attributed to his predecessor Alan Greenspan, whenever no-one had a clue what he was saying. In reality, Ben Bernanke will turn out to be the biggest scourge on American society since the same Alan Greenspan, but that's not how he's seen; instead, just like Greenspan, he's idolized. What's wrong with this picture is that Bernanke's words and actions are interpreted in the press exclusively by people who live in the part of society that stands to profit from them, let's call it "the financial world". That they are but a very small part of society easily gets lost in translation.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, July 22, 2013

Dangerous Excess - QE Fiscal Easing Past And Present / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Andrew_McKillop

THE ASSIGNAT BUBBLE AND QE
One of our problems is easy to state but very dramatic. There are no real precedents for what is called Quantitative Easing as it is practiced since 2008. Central bankers such as Bernanke, Draghi, Carney and their partners in almost all other countries are engaged in The Great Experiment.

Unfortunately, based on all past history, the chance of it not ending badly or very badly, is minimal.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 18, 2013

Bernanke Testimony Sends Mixed Signals on QE3 / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Money_Morning

Gary Gately writes: Call it Ben Bernanke's Alan Greenspan moment.

As his predecessor as Federal Reserve chairman had often done, Bernanke sent decidedly mixed and unclear signals today (Wednesday) in testimony before Congress.

The Bernanke testimony, in prepared remarks delivered to the House Financial Services Committee, provided nothing close to a definitive answer on whether the Fed would scale back quantitative easing in September.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 18, 2013

How to Succeed in the Low-Yield Inflationary Bond Market Matrix / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Robert Hsu writes: In the 1999 sci-fi film, "The Matrix," the mentor Morpheus turns to the protagonist Neo and says, "Do you think that's air you're breathing now?"

The quote has become somewhat of a modern classic movie line, as the words serve to enlighten Neo that all is not what it seems in the world he perceives.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Mirror Cracks / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

Michael Lewitt is one of my favorite credit analysts. If I want to know what is happening in the credit markets, one of my first calls is to Michael. He has been doing deep dives into some rather esoteric markets as well as traditional bonds over the course of his career, and he really understands what is happening under the surface.

In the latest issue of The Credit Strategist, which Michael has given me special permission to pass on to you as today's Outside the Box, he gets our attention right off the bat by comparing the recent big move in the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to a comparable two-month move in 1994, a year that, as he says, was "generally viewed as Armageddon for bond investors." But in percentage terms, the 1994 move was only 20% over that period while the recent move was 40%.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Municipal Bonds: While Others Bail, It Might Be a Good Time to Buy / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Gary Gately writes: Investors have been bailing out of beleaguered municipal bonds in droves, worried that higher interest rates will drive down the prices of the bonds.

About two weeks ago, weekly net outflows from muni bond mutual funds and ETFs soared to a record $4.53 billion, Lipper data shows.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, July 15, 2013

Wading Through the Bond Market Bloodbath / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Robert Hsu writes: If you're an investor who has been following a traditional income-style portfolio allocation that includes a lot of U.S. Treasury bonds, then you are likely having a very uncomfortable summer.

Indeed, since the Federal Reserve's "taper" narrative was first introduced to Wall Street by Chairman Ben Bernanke on May 22, there's been a virtual bloodbath in the bond market.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, July 12, 2013

How to Play the U.S. Treasury Bond Market Rout / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Investment_U

Alexander Green writes: This week Goldman Sachs forecast that 10-year Treasury yields would reach 3% by the end of this year and 4% by 2016. Of course, Goldman doesn’t have a crystal ball, and neither do we.

But the bloom is clearly off the rose. Ben Bernanke’s announcement last month that the Fed intends to end its $85 billion a month bond-buying program by the middle of next year has turned the $11.9 trillion U.S. Treasury bond market upside down. The 10-year yield has soared from 1.76% at the end of 2012 to a recent high of 2.75%.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

How High Will U.S. Interest Rates Go? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

To best answer the question as to where U.S. Treasury yields are headed in the next quarter or two, it is important to know where they would be without the manipulation of our central bank, where they would be in a growing economy and, also, absent the threat from an imminent collapse of a major foreign currency. The current yield on the Ten-Year Note is 2.6%, up from 1.6% less than two months ago. True, that rate has surged of late but it is still far below its 40-year average of around 7%. But just prior to the beginning of the Great Recession (in fall of 2007) the yield on the Ten-Year Note was 4%--140 basis points higher than today.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 09, 2013

Meredith Whitney on Muni Bonds and Red State-Blue State Migration / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Frank Marchant writes: In 2010 Meredith Whitney made an earth shattering statement during a CBS's "60 Minutes" interview that rocked the municipal bond investment world.

"There is not a doubt in my mind that you will see a spate of municipal-bond defaults,"said Meredith Whitney on Dec 19. She continued, "You could see 50 sizable defaults, and 50 to 100 sizeable defaults, more. This will amount to hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of defaults."

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, July 07, 2013

Mortgage Backed Securities Clobbered and U.S. Treasury Yields Soar Following Job Numbers / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Mike_Shedlock

Curve Watchers Anonymous notes that treasury yields surged higher and mortgage backed securities (MBS) had a steep selloff following purportedly good job numbers.

Beneath the surface, the economy actually shed 326,000 full-time jobs.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, July 05, 2013

When the Fed Might Start Tapering QE / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Money_Morning

Frank Marchant writes: Although you might think the markets simply respond any time Ben Bernanke sneezes, his "cold cycle" is not one of the indicators that will spell the slowing and eventual cessation of the printing press at the Fed.

There actually is a mathematical formula used by the Federal Reserve to determine when to stop the presses.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 04, 2013

How to Make Money in Bull or Bear Bond Markets / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Investment_U

Steve McDonald writes: Though painful, the recent sell-off in bonds has had three positive effects on the bond market:

First, it reinforced the fact that the bond market’s movements are mechanical and predictable.

Second, it drove up rates on all bonds to more reasonable levels.

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