Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, July 19, 2010
The Case for Emerging Markets Investment Out Performance / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
One of the best selling points for investing in emerging markets is growth potential, but like any other sector, this growth must come at a reasonable price.
Emerging market stocks are cheap these days. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.8x, which is 15 percent below the P/E for the MSCI World Index. As you can see on the chart below, this valuation has rarely been more attractive – it is 15 percent below the long-term average.
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Monday, July 19, 2010
Investors Listen to Washington and You’re Screwed! / Stock-Markets / Investing 2010
From my home base in Bangkok, Thailand, I can tell you — in no uncertain terms — that Asia’s economies are as vibrant as ever, if not more so.
Just consider the following list of recent economic stats coming out of Asia, the world’s most populous corner of the globe, home to fully 50% of the world’s population …
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Monday, July 19, 2010
Consumer Confidence Collapsing, Economy Sinking Investor Profit Bonanzas / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Rarely are the signs of an economic downturn as clear as they are today — collapsing consumer confidence, sinking retail sales, another round of housing market troubles, and much more.
And even more rarely do we see the stock market defy those signs like it did through Thursday of last week — finally succumbing, however, on Friday with the Dow’s 261-point decline.
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Monday, July 19, 2010
Stock Market Support Remains Low / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Sustainable multi-year advances in the stock market requires a background of improving fundamentals plus an expanding economy. On a more simplistic level, a bull market is when the fundamentals create an environment where the majority of stocks are trending up. However, investing conditions periodically build where the majority of stocks in an index are turning down short-term. This is when a deep correction can occur.
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Monday, July 19, 2010
Stock Market Targeting Corrective Downtrend Into October / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Current Position of the Market
Very Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles are down and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until about 2014-2015.
SPX: Intermediate trend. The index made an intermediate top at 1220 and is now in a dubious intermediate downtrend.
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Sunday, July 18, 2010
Stock Market Crash Update - Don't Get Fleeced Get Rich / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
When I was at school in England and about 15 years old I opted to play golf on sports day, in order to get out of playing rugby, and one of my happy memories, apart from using the same sick note forged by a friend about 17 times to get out of sports altogether, is strolling around the golf practice area at school, which happened to be adjacent to a rugby pitch, occasionally whacking a ball idly with a 7 iron while the rugby teams charged around like oxen after an oval shaped ball, play being interrupted occasionally for one of them to be carried off with concussion or a broken ankle or whatever. If this seems like irrelevant rambling bear with me for we are soon going to get to the point.
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Sunday, July 18, 2010
Stock Market Extremes in Bearish Sentiment Needs More Buyers / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Without buyers stepping in, extremes in bearish sentiment will be just that - extremes in bearish sentiment. Prices not only ended the week on a big down note, but they also failed to close above resistance levels despite probing above those levels all week. This was just pure selling.
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Sunday, July 18, 2010
Stocks Stealth Bull Market Correction Generating China Buying Opportunity? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
China - You will no doubt have heard much about the start of the great chinese stocks bear market as the Shanghai SSEC index has fallen below 2,500 to currently stand at 2,424. In my opinion the whole trend off of the high is a correction and therefore represents a opportunity to buy at bargain prices.
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Sunday, July 18, 2010
Why Are Economic Debates in Academia So Bitter? Answer Because the Stakes Are So Low / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
John Hussman of the Hussman Funds has a Ph.D. in economics from Stanford. He used to be a professor of economics and international finance at the University of Michigan. Now, he’s a highly successful money manager. John tells a story about how Paul Krugman once gave a talk at Stanford about a model of economic development which caused him to leave academia and become a money manager.
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Saturday, July 17, 2010
It’s the End of the World As We Know It / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
What are 308,367,109 Americans supposed to do?
First of all, despite clamping down on immigration, our population grew by 2.6M people last year. Unfortunately, not only did we not create jobs for those 2.6M new people but we lost about 4M jobs so what are these new people going to do? Not only that, but nobody is talking about the another major job issue: People aren’t retiring! They can’t afford to because the economy is bad – that means there are even less job openings… The pimply faced kid can’t get a job delivering pizza because his grandpa’s doing it.
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Saturday, July 17, 2010
Stocks Retreat, Gold Breaks Wedge Formation and Dollar Preps for Massive Rally / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
FDIC Friday back on the job. - The FDIC Failed Bank List announStocks Retreat, Gold Breaks Wedge Formation and Dollar Preps for Massive Rallyced six new bank closures this week. FDIC employees appear to be back on the job. I wonder how quickly the FDIC runs out of money? My count suggests 91 failed banks so far in 2010.Stocks Tumble as Banks, GE Trail Revenue Estimates
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks slid, wiping out a weekly advance, as revenue at Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and General Electric Co. missed analyst estimates and a gauge of consumer confidence slid to the lowest in a year. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 17, 2010
Stocks Tumble as Banks, G.E. Trail Revenue Earnings Estimates / Stock-Markets / Corporate Earnings
Friday was an eventful day in the stock market: Stocks Tumble as Banks, GE Trail Revenue Estimates. Markets hate uncertainty and disappointment, and Friday the stock market took a Hay Maker to the kisser, POW.
U.S. stocks slid, wiping out a weekly advance, as revenue at Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and General Electric Co. missed analyst estimates and a gauge of consumer confidence slid to the lowest in a year.
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Saturday, July 17, 2010
Option Expiry Bear Raid on SP500 Futures and Gold Close Charts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
I had thought that the SP 500 would fail at a slightly higher level, the blue resistance trendline, but apparently that is not the case, at least for now.
Earnings misses in the banks and key tech bellwethers is driving the selling, and not coincidentally on the option expiration Friday for July. Michigan sentiment came in at a very low 66.5 which was well below expectations. At least for now belief in the recovery is off the table.
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Saturday, July 17, 2010
Last Stocks Bull Standing 2011 / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
One of the most important contributions made in the science of market analysis is the series of equity market rhythms known as the Kress Cycles. The one who discovered these cycles, Samuel J. “Bud” Kress, has done for cycle theory what virtually no one else been able to accomplish, namely discovering a series of inter-related “hard” cycles that are all harmonically related and which provide an accurate context from which to view the past, present and future financial and economic climate.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 17, 2010
Uncertainty Gone Yet Stock Market Races Lower.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Goldman Sachs (GS) had a headache over its head with the SEC going after them in a big way. Markets hate uncertainty, thus the stock had been under some strong pressure over the past few months. Late in the session yesterday the news came out that Goldman had settled with the SEC, they got a large fine, and no one would get hurt overall. Great and expected news by this person. The stock raced up some. Goldman always gets away with crime. That's what separates them from the rest. They're simply above us all. Hopefully, some day that will change. For now, they are, basically, untouchable. Anyway, Goldman resolved. Good news for the market.
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Friday, July 16, 2010
How Long Can this Stock Market Rally Last, Must-See Chart Has the Answer / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Andrew Mickey writes: “When masses of people succumb to an idea, they often run off a tangent because of their emotions.”
That’s what the Humphrey Neill wrote in his 50-year-old book, The Art of Contrary Thinking.
Friday, July 16, 2010
Stock Market Pullback Off Lows Pattern Forecasted Today’s Sell Off / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
When you look at the following charts, it’s really pretty simple. Downtrend channel resistance is resistance.
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Friday, July 16, 2010
Dominant Downtrend Still Intact for S&P 500 Stock Market Index / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The BIG picture Bollinger Band chart work on the emini S&P 500 shows that the recent vertical upmove from 1002.75 to 1099.50 traversed the April-July down-sloping price channel completely. But during the last 4 sessions it failed to hurdle the upper channel resistance line in the vicinity of 1095-1091.
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Friday, July 16, 2010
Stock Market Rydex Bull Bear Investor Sentiment Ratio / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
Every week I present the following chart in our sentiment round up. See figure 1. It is the Rydex total bull to bear ratio. The indicator in the lower panel of figure 1 measures all the assets in the Rydex bullish oriented equity funds divided by the sum of assets in the bullish oriented equity funds plus the assets in the bearish oriented equity funds. When the indicator is green, the value is low and there is fear in the market; this is where market bottoms are forged. When the indicator is red, there is complacency in the market. There are too many bulls and this is when market advances stall.
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Friday, July 16, 2010
SPX Cyclical Stocks Bull Market Lives / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market
Naturally in the wake of the recent stock-market selling, bearish theories have made a major resurgence. You can’t turn on CNBC for 5 minutes, let alone open a financial newspaper, without seeing endless reasons why the stock markets are doomed to spiral ever lower. But the little-discussed contrarian case against these mainstream arguments is pretty compelling today.
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