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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Gold Follows Crude Oil Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Adrian_Ash

SPOT GOLD for physical delivery hit a one-week high at the London opening on Tuesday, unwinding one-third of the last fortnight's 12% plunge as crude oil hit new record highs above $120 per barrel.

World stock markets fell, led by banks and home-building stocks, despite Bank of America confirming that it will push ahead with its $4.1 billion purchase of Countrywide, the biggest US mortgage lender.
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Commodities

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Gold Headed for Summer Seasonal Weakness? / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

The gold market in the past has been seasonal, with the rule being, "Sell in May and go away". This lull in demand usually started in May and lasted until the middle-to-end of August, with the main demand appearing in the final quarter of the year and lasting until the end of May. Will it be the same this year? Bear in mind a big fall has happened already this last month.

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Thoughts on Global Weather, Food Supplies and Inflation / Commodities / Climate Change

By: David_Petch

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA brief note: There is really nothing further to add from prior updates of the S&P, HUI, XOI, USD or TNX as the patterns appear to be playing out as forecast (the HUI is taking slightly longer and may be putting in a slightly different count). Is there such thing as having an impartial Elliott Wave count…everyone has a bias in some form or another. The way someone perceives market action to follow (inflation or deflation) will affect their logical processes for how labeling schemes “should” appear. This thought would be equivalent to a downhill skier at the bottom of a hill expecting to magically ski to the top…right idea but wrong location (the skier at the top recognized the landscape correctly and got it right).

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Commodities

Monday, May 05, 2008

Has Europe Declared War on the US Dollar? / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Michael_J_Kosares

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFootprints lead to London Market Attack.
Gold suffers Collateral Damage.

When Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg's premier and the chair of Europe's finance ministers, announced on April 23 that "financial markets and other actors [had not] correctly and entirely understood the message of the [recent] G7 meeting," his words went essentially unheeded. The Daily Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard put that message in clear language. "[Juncker], he said, "has given the clearest warning to date that the world authorities may take action to halt the collapse of the dollar and undercut commodity speculation by hedge funds."

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Commodities

Monday, May 05, 2008

Gold and Silver Update: All That Glitters / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Joe_Nicholson

“There's little evidence to suggest anyone actually wants a strong dollar, just a stable currency that will make business more transparent. The wave of inflation triggered by the current easy money policy has only just begun to materialize but, because of the consumer's link to interest rates through their home mortgages, it will be all but impossible for the Fed to make any more than token hikes in their target rate. What's more, because the spread between Fed funds and Libor remains stubbornly wide, it's quite possible the Fed will not be finished cutting rates this week, even if it pauses, as interbank lending continues to be fearful.

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Commodities

Monday, May 05, 2008

Factors In Defense of Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Frank_Holmes

The price of gold has corrected by close to 20 percent since peaking on March 17. If you have been listening to the popular press and business TV, you may be convinced that the gold and commodity “bubbles” have popped.

Once you back away from the day-to-day noise and put things into perspective, we believe this correction in gold, while painful in the short term, is just another pause in a long-term secular bull market. As it has been said, bull markets climb a wall of worry.

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Commodities

Sunday, May 04, 2008

Gold Severe Downtrend to Possibly Towards $660 / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Merv_Burak

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUp, down, up, down, up but in the end the downs have it. For every $5 to $8 that gold goes up it goes down by $20. That's not the way to new highs. For now it looks like the down side is the direction of least resistance but for how long?

GOLD : LONG TERM
With the confirmation of a long term P&F bear market in progress this is what the long term P&F chart looks like now. The two previous lows were breached earlier at the $900 level and the up trend line was finally breached at the $870 level on Wednesday.

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Commodities

Saturday, May 03, 2008

Perhaps 60% of today's Crude Oil Price is Pure Speculation / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: F_William_Engdahl

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe price of crude oil today is not made according to any traditional relation of supply to demand. It's controlled by an elaborate financial market system as well as by the four major Anglo-American oil companies. As much as 60% of today's crude oil price is pure speculation driven by large trader banks and hedge funds. It has nothing to do with the convenient myths of Peak Oil. It has to do with control of oil and its price. How?

First, the crucial role of the international oil exchanges in London and New York is crucial to the game. Nymex in New York and the ICE Futures in London today control global benchmark oil prices which in turn set most of the freely traded oil cargo. They do so via oil futures contracts on two grades of crude oil—West Texas Intermediate and North Sea Brent.

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Commodities

Friday, May 02, 2008

Junior Precious Metals Mining Companies Risk / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks

By: David_Morgan

Dear David,

Thank you very much for your hard work and excellent research. Your level approach to the metals has long been a beacon to follow. 

Thank you. 

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Commodities

Friday, May 02, 2008

Junior Gold Mining Stocks in the Midst of Fear Driven Sentiment Storm / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks

By: Zeal_LLC

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhile recent activity in the gold stock sector has caused many of its battle-hardened investors to capitulate, the tried and true speculators still holding strong in the junior-gold-stock realm are feeling beaten and bloodied.

As a speculator in junior gold stocks I have not been immune to the carnage in this small sector either. And it's not difficult to hear the wailing and gnashing of teeth. The juniors are in the midst of a fear-driven sentiment storm that is fierce and unforgiving.

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Commodities

Friday, May 02, 2008

The Death Of Gold and Lessons from History / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Roland_Watson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA couple of weeks back I put out an article saying that "The Shoeshine Boy" principle may have flagged a major top in the gold market. The Times cover trumpeting gold was published one trading day before gold's $1030 top and is shown below.

Not surprisingly this generated a number of emails from gold bulls which with one exception disagreed to the point of employing four letter words you would not even use against alleged members of a gold cartel. Let me clarify one point, the use of the phrase "Death of Gold" was a play on the phrase "Death of Equities" though some readers thought this meant gold going back to $300 for the next 20 years.

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Commodities

Friday, May 02, 2008

Gold Holds Above Four Month Lows Against Increasingly Bullish US Dollar / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Adrian_Ash

SPOT GOLD PRICES ticked higher from a four-month low early Friday, adding 0.9% to $855.90 per ounce before giving back $3 in London as world stock markets rose sharply and bond yields fell.

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Commodities

Friday, May 02, 2008

Precious Metals Tumble Ahead of Today's US Non-Farm Payrolls / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Mark_OByrne

The sharp sell off in the precious metal markets continued yesterday with gold down $13.80 to $848.90 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday and silver was down 38 cents to $16.12 per ounce. The London AM Gold Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $854.25, £429.92  and €551.31  (from $863.50, £434.64  €556.74).

Should there be a continuance of the recent trend of dollar strength and oil weakness today then we could see gold test the 200 day moving average at $823.

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Commodities

Friday, May 02, 2008

Rice Prices Fall Sharply After Food Crisis Rally on Government Export Controls / Commodities / Food Crisis

By: Jason_Simpkins

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe price of rice finally started to moderate this week, with rice futures sinking for a fifth straight day. Rice has retreated 11.6% on the Chicago Board of Trade since hitting an all-time high last Thursday.

But this decline is likely just the start for rice prices, which have been artificially inflated by government controls and may continue to plummet by as much as 20%.

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Commodities

Friday, May 02, 2008

Gold Stocks- Time to Buy? / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks

By: Brian_Bloom

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFrom a trading perspective, the charts are showing that it might be “buying time” in gold shares.

Let's look at three relationships:

  1. The relationship of the speculative $HUI to the less speculative $XAU
  2. The relationship of the $HUI to the gold price
  3. The relationship of the $XAU to the gold price
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Commodities

Friday, May 02, 2008

Uranium Stocks Index Trend Still Bearish / Commodities / Uranium

By: Merv_Burak

I keep looking at the chart to see if there is something bright to write about but nothing, at least nothing of any real significance. There are some signs that things might be getting brighter but they would be signs mostly in my mind rather than anything concrete. I guess the most positive action one can grab on to is the fact that once the Index fell below that “box” that it was in for so long, that the Index hasn't yet dropped like a rock, as might have been expected. I'm hoping things do perk up soon because as long as things remain bearish readers start to lose interest and sooner or later I'll end up writing these commentaries only for myself.

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Commodities

Thursday, May 01, 2008

What's behind the Sharp Slide in Gold and Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Gary_Dorsch

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAfter watching the price of silver soar to as high as $15 /ounce in May 2006, Warren Buffet, the “Oracle of Omaha” offered some sagely words of wisdom. “What the wise man does at the beginning, the fool does at the end. At the start of the party, the punch is flowing and everything's going well, but you know at midnight, it's all going to turn into pumpkins and mice. People think they'll be able to get out just before midnight, but everyone else thinks that too. The problem is that, in commodities there are no clocks on the wall,” Buffet warned.

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Commodities

Thursday, May 01, 2008

Bear Stearns Rescue Reversed Gold Trend / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Christopher_Laird

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGold rallied a great deal, way beyond anything in recent years, as the 07 credit crisis began and spread. Since the explosion of the credit crisis around August 07, gold exploded from the $670s to a $1020s peak mid March. The Fed/Morgan Bear Stearns bailout occurred at that time. Right after, the financials rallied (XLF Spider) and gold has been selling off since. Other commodities also are following. The credit crisis caused a gold and commodity bubble.

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Commodities

Thursday, May 01, 2008

Gold Tumbles After Fed Interest Rate Cut / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Adrian_Ash

SPOT GOLD PRICES continued to slide early Thursday, falling below Wednesday's 13-week low to trade at $862.40 per ounce as bond yields ticked higher following yesterday's "baby-step" rate cut from the Federal Reserve in Washington .

With continental Europe closed for May Day, the London stock market was little changed in thin trade, while the British Pound held onto its overnight gains vs. the Dollar above $1.9850.

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Commodities

Thursday, May 01, 2008

Leveraged Gold ETF's Signal the End for Gold Stock Investments? / Commodities / Exchange Traded Funds

By: Bob_Kirtley

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDuring the last major rally in gold prices, gold stocks made some great gains and investors such as yours truly were happy to take good profits on the gold mining companies we had bought over the summer doldrums . However we should have seen a much better performance.

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