Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, June 30, 2008
Gold Stocks Gearing Up For a Big Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Michael_Swanson
While the broad market fell last week gold rallied hard. For the past few weeks we've seen gold and gold stocks held down as various US Federal Reserve officials have talked more hawkish about inflation and market analysts have predicted future rate hikes from the Fed later this year. As I wrote last week though I do not believe we'll see the Fed raise rates this year, because I'm expecting the bear market in stocks and further banking problems to force them to stay on hold. Once this becomes clear to the market - which I think will happen in the Fall - I'm expecting we'll see some real fireworks - with steep losses in stocks and the dollar - which will lead to an explosion in the price of gold. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 30, 2008
Gold Safe-haven Demand as Fed Credibility on the Line / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold surged to $928.50 in New York on Friday and was up $16.20 and silver closed at $17.62, up 50 cents.While the dollar has strengthened somewhat, oil has again rallied sharply to new record highs ( up 2.4% to over $143.60 per barrel <Light Sweet Crude Oil Future - Combined - AUG08> ) and this should result in gold remaining well bid at these levels. Geopolitical risk and continuing tensions in the Middle East and between the U.S. and Iran appear to be part of the driving force behind new record highs and this has led to gold being firm.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Russia Could be Trigger for $200 Oil and Global Recession / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Jennifer_Yousfi
Higher oil could lead to a worldwide economic collapse, according to a top analyst at Germany's largest bank.
"Two-hundred dollar oil would break the back of the global economy," Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank AG ( DB ), told Bloomberg News in an interview yesterday (Wednesday) in Tokyo. "Next step after $200 would be global recession and bad news for everybody."
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 28, 2008
Crude Oil Unsustainable Advance and Stock Market Double Non-Confirmation / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Tim_Wood
For weeks now one of the major topics in the news and amongst the politicians is the price of oil. The republicans want to begin more deep water drilling and open up parts of Alaska to drilling that has historically been protected. The democrats have introduced a bill to limit speculation to only those that are end-users of oil. It seems that the word speculator is becoming a four-letter word. I also hear talk of conspiracy and manipulation by the masters of the world. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 27, 2008
Preserve Your Wealth Buy Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Turn up the gloom! Investors will do well merely to preserve wealth from here..."
IT'S HARD TO BE BULLISH on gold when there's so much bad news in the world.
After all, Gold offers a refuge against bad times ahead. Like all good insurance, it's best bought before trouble arrives – not during or after.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 27, 2008
Soft Commodities Bull Market: Grains / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Zeal_LLC
The great commodities bull of the 21st century has elevated individual commodities and sectors of commodities in various phases over the last eight or so years. Those commodities that are finite (hard commodities) took the lead, with energy and metals breaking out to historic highs.
Growing global demand led by Asia 's industrialization has pinched the supplies of these scarce resources. And this has caused an economic imbalance that has birthed massive secular bull markets across the entire energy and metals complexes.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 27, 2008
Fuel Subsidies In Mexico Stimulate Black Market Activity In The US / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
Along the frontier between Southern California and Baja California it has always been a tradition for consumers to engage in a bit of arbitrage due to the temporary differences in prices for basic goods. Normally, this has been confined to non-durables and foodstuffs. But, beyond Mexican “cerveza” and other spirits, the changing price of oil has jump-started black market activity north of the border.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 27, 2008
Gold Jumps on Crude Oil Breakout Above $140 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES jumped higher again in early London trade on Friday, breaking new one-month highs above $926 per ounce as crude oil reached all-time highs near $142 per barrel.
Asian stock markets closed the week almost 3% down while the US Dollar fell to a three-week low vs. the Euro.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 27, 2008
Gold has Largest One Day Gaim Since 1985 on Global Inflation Shock / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold surged to $912.30 in New York yesterday and was up $32.70 and silver closed at $17.12, up 64 cents.
Gold surged in what was the largest one day move since 1985 as the dollar weakened, oil prices surged to new record highs and stock markets fell sharply. While gold was up some 3%, most U.S. stock indices were down some 3% and this continued in Asia and early European trading with gold rising to over $920. Although European indices have recovered somewhat as the morning has progressed, gold has continued to remain firm and safe haven demand has reemerged on decreasing risk appetite.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Peak Oil Truths and Consequences / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes: I hear that along with Peak Oil, the world is now hitting Peak Fertilizer. Well, there's enough BS being spread about the oil crisis that it could solve our fertilizer problem in a jiffy.
Much of it is — no surprise — coming from Washington. Another load of bull is coming from our so-called "friends" in the Middle East. Even corporate America, where you might expect common sense to hold some sway, is busy shoveling misinformation. As a result, many investors are left neck-deep, choking, and grasping for a lifeline.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Crude Oil Retesting All-Time Highs / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The June triangle consolidation period in the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (AMEX: USO) likely ended yesterday, and has turned up with a vengeance and has propelled the USO towards a retest of the June (all-time) high at 113.00. The pattern itself represents a high-level bullish consolidation pattern that should resolve itself in a thrust into new high territory that projects into the 115.50 to 117.20 target zone. Only a decline that breaks yesterday's low at 106.83 will wreck the still bullish pattern.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Gold Jumps on Central Banks Failure to Act Against Inflation / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD jumped ahead of the Wall Street opening on Thursday after the Federal Reserve left US interest rates some 2.0% below the rate of inflation.Breaking $908 per ounce, Gold rose above last week's closing level as crude oil bounced and the US Dollar fell hard on the currency markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Agricultural Commodity ETF Tests Resistance / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Not much of anything going on in the equity or bond markets since the FOMC announcement, however, in general, the equity market appears bid, while the bond market appears offered for the time being. Perhaps the most important reaction to the FOMC statement has been the climb in euro/$ from 1.5540 to 1.5640, which has popped the grains (wheat, corn, beans)... which in turn has popped the DBA (DB Agricultural Commodity, ETF) to test near term resistance at 41.00. If hurdled, let's expect the DBA to surge to retest the June high at 41.42. See our chart.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Gold Lower Ahead of US Fed Interest Rate Indecision on Dollar and Inflation / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD ticked lower in London on Wednesday, dropping $4 per ounce from last night's close as currency, bond and stock market traders awaited today's decision and statement on US interest rates from the Federal Reserve."The Dollar managed to stabilize [overnight] in after-market trading," notes Manqoba Madinane at Standard Bank in Johannesburg , "possibly indicating that investors anticipate hawkish comments from the Fed on inflation today."
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Alternative Energy ETFs / Commodities / Renewable Energy
By: Richard_Shaw
As you consider alternative energy (solar and wind, in particular) keep their relative size in mind. Solar is currently 1% of 7% of US energy sources. Wind is currently 5% of 7% of energy sources.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Agri-Food Bull Markets Driven by Fundamentals / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
The term “bubble” is thrown around a lot. It is especially used by analysts that do not understand why the price of something is rising. If an analyst failed to forecast the rising price, it must be a bubble. Maybe yes, maybe no. Bubbles have three characteristics. Importantly, bubbles are built on (1)a widely accepted consensus forecast of (2)rising price (3)financed by debt. Such would aptly describe the global housing bubble which has burst. It would also be an apt description of developments in the paper oil market. Only in part does it explain the price developments in Agri-Food. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Gold Rallies on Negative Real Interest Rates / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES ticked higher in Asian and early London trade on Tuesday, recovering one-third of Monday's 2.7% drop as crude oil pushed higher and European stock markets sank.
The Dollar held flat ahead of tomorrow's Federal Reserve vote on interest rates. It's widely expected to leave the real returns paid to cash 2% below zero.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Energy Use Per Unit of GDP by Country / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Richard_Shaw
Countries that require less energy per unit of GDP may fare better during a period of high energy prices.
This table shows the Kg of oil equivalent consumed per unit of GDP on a purchasing power parity basis for 32 countries, as reported by the United Nations.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 23, 2008
Gold's Corrective Upleg is Complete / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Although the weakness in the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) has not inflicted much if any meaningful technical damage to the overall pattern off of the 5/1 low of 83.57, today's big gap down certainly argues that the current upleg off of the 6/12 low at 84.83 into Friday's high at 89.61 is complete! In addition, my expectation of an approaching significant low closer to the timeframe of the bottoming of the 15-18 week cycle low between July 7 and 14 suggests that today's weakness is the start of the road towards such a low, which figures to be VERY important indeed. Let's expect the GLD to press towards a test of the rising 200 DMA in the 85-84 target zone in the upcoming hours/days -- and possibly decline into the 82.90/50 area prior to a powerful upside reversal.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 23, 2008
China Raises Fuel Prices: Is this the End of the Oil boom? / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Money_and_Markets
Last Thursday, China roiled the oil market, announcing it would raise gas and diesel prices by about 46 cents per gallon in order to reduce demand. In a matter of minutes, oil prices skidded lower.
Before you knew it, America's TV news and finance channels were all over the story. They asked the burning question, "Will higher prices and lower demand in China kill this great bull market in oil?" And they presented a seemingly endless parade of oil bears and stock bulls who almost unanimously proclaimed that oil prices were about to crater.
Read full article... Read full article...