Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, March 17, 2007
Gold and Silver Analysis - Lackluster, But Not Tarnished / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Dominick
“Even if there is a retest of support in the next two weeks, vital signs indicate this cat still has plenty of lives.” ~ Precious Points: Nine Lives, March 11, 2007
Though the trading in metals looked pretty unenthusiastic by the end of the week despite higher than expected inflation readings, gold and silver lived up to our expectations and, at Wednesday's lows, landed on all four feet. Readers were directed last week to examine last June, Sept and January on the weekly charts to illustrate the expectation of “inevitable” attempts to retest the 50-day simple moving average at higher lows. Even without the trend charts and commentary available to members of TTC, readers of this weekly update could have reasonably sold early strength and bought near the lows.
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Saturday, March 17, 2007
Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 18th March 2007 - Technically Precious with Merv / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
Gold went down. Gold went up. In the end gold went nowhere during the week. If this keeps up one can just go to sleep for a while and miss nothing. But are there stirrings under the guise of boredom? Let's see.
MOVING AVERAGE : Last week I briefly commented upon momentum, what it was and how to use it. I guess I should also say a few words about the moving average, which is another of the important indicators I use in my simple market analysis. I say “simple” as I do not believe in the complicated or super sophisticated. If it's not simple
I have found too often that it is also not worth the extra time and effort versus the potential extra benefits. I like the simple message of an indicator and especially the message that tells me “ you screwed up, get out fast ”. The moving average is one such simple indicator that does the job. Unfortunately, it is also an indicator that at times causes sudden reversals of message (whipsaws) so nothing is ever perfect.
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Wednesday, March 14, 2007
Gold Forecast - Viewing Pullback in Gold as a Buying Opportunity - Global Watch / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
The Technical Picture of the Gold Price: The Gold Bullion Price expressed below is the price defining those of the Futures / Options / and Exchange Traded Funds, representing a portion of an ounce of gold. The $ price of gold is the one all market operators relate to, due to the $'s position as the present global Reserve Currency. Each Producer receives his income from gold in his local currency only as the host government of the mines exchange the income for local currency.
Likewise indian, European, et al, buyers of gold use their own local currencies when buying gold. Gold Forecaster , tracks the gold price in the different currencies.
U.S. Dollar Gold Price
The Long-Term Technical Picture of Gold:
Looking to Target $730+ in 2007
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
Subprime mortgage companies continuing collapse to benefit Gold stocks / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
GOLD THOUGHTS : New York, which considers itself the center of the known universe, has discovered a solution to collapsing mountain of mortgage debt. NYSE is delisting NEW. Strategy of out of sight out of mind works for them. Amid this collapse of mortgage related stock prices and business models, Street analysts are showing their skills. One of these fantasy forecasters lowered NEW to "under perform" on Monday.
Talk about forecasting ability. The mortgage bomb de jour for Tuesday is LEND, down from almost $60 to $5. This one also downgraded to "under perform" by a talented analyst on Monday, and the price target of $26 was discarded. Interestingly, in most of these meltdowns some hedge fund seems to be identified as holding a major position. Pity the poor individual investors, the ultimate beneficiaries of this combined ineptness.
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Wednesday, March 14, 2007
Investing in Uranium as prices top $90 a pound! / Commodities / Uranium
By: Money_and_Markets
Wow! This mortgage meltdown you're seeing in the stock market is exactly what Martin and Mike have been warning you about all along. Boy, am I glad they're on our team!
Meanwhile, the uranium market is booming regardless of the stock market. Just last week, an Australian uranium mine got clobbered by a powerful cyclone. And the damage to just that one mine could result in losses exceeding all the new uranium production coming online this year!
So uranium prices are reacting to the news by blowing through the $90-a-pound mark.
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Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Stock Market Bounce looks like a Bear Trap, Gold Thoughts / Commodities / Financial Markets
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
GOLD THOUGHTS : Equity markets have begun a demonstration of long known fact, even a dead cat bounces when thrown into the air. Market corrections can certainly include days of temporary relief. A possible end to the correction is being called by some. More likely it is a bear market trap. Such commentators, having failed to anticipate end of liquidity driven rally, now have ability to identify bottoms. Real ability or expectational biases?
Even Mark Hulbert, with his dubious analysis of newsletters, has suddenly been able to find statistics suggesting end of equity correction may be near. Common characteristic of these gurus is that they have something to sell you, something that failed to suggest extracting your money from paper equity markets before the slide.
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Tuesday, March 13, 2007
New Mexico - The Uranium Mining Capital of the World - Gets Political Lift / Commodities / Uranium
By: James_Finch
New Mexico state senator David Ulibarri's senate initiative, initially designed to increase public awareness of uranium mining and nuclear energy, has now taken on a larger dimension. After the New Mexico Senate Rules and Conservation Committees passed his Senate Joint Memorial (SJM)10 bill, Senator Ulibarri decided he accomplished what he hoped for – to help launch a study of uranium mining safety.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 11, 2007
New Uranium Mine Flood Tightens Uranium Supply - Prices to go Higher / Commodities / Uranium
By: James_Finch
After Cameco Corp’s Cigar Lake flood at the company’s northern Saskatchewan uranium mining project rattled analysts and utilities who previously expected sufficient uranium would be available to meet the needs of nuclear utilities, along came another mine flooding – this one in Australia.
Sunday, March 11, 2007
Gold and Silver Analysis - The Precious Metals Cat has Nine Lives / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Dominick
“This is not the end of the bull market in metals and the blue moving average trend lines above should roughly hold. It's still reasonable, though, to expect some more short term weakness until the newfound volatility works to correct the recent overreaction.”
~ Gold and Silver Analysis - One Step Forward, Two Steps Back , March 04, 2007
Last week played out much as expected. Actually, it couldn't have been more perfect. The gap down and early weakness on Monday morning hit the 50-day simple moving averages described in the last update. The overnight move came as the USD/JPY tested support just above 115 and, as anticipated, bounced higher.
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Sunday, March 11, 2007
Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 11th March 2007 - Technically Precious with Merv / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
The week started on a downer and ended on a downer. Gold is trying to recover from the plunge but is finding difficulty. Which way next? Let's see.
Before going into the regular routine I though I would once more say a few words about MOMENTUM as so many are really not that sure what it is or what to do with it.
MOMENTUM (MOM)
When hearing or reading a commentator (or analyst) mention the word “momentum” I can say with all certainty that most readers do not REALLY know what the commentator is really referring to. The commentator in all likelihood doesn't really know himself but it sounds intelligent. Could it be earnings momentum or sales momentum or what have you momentum? Unless the commentator defines in simple terms what he is referring to, who knows, really?
Friday, March 09, 2007
Gold and Silver Bull Market Set to Continue - Six Reasons Why / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Aden_Forecast
All of the markets have been volatile and the precious metals have not been an exception. These markets, however, remain bullish. Despite the recent downward corrections, the major trends are up.
In fact, this month marks the six year anniversary of gold's bull market. This has led to some concern that these bull markets may be reaching maturity. But the evidence points to the opposite. While nothing is ever guaranteed with the markets, gold and silver really have everything going for them, suggesting these rises have a lot further to go.
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Wednesday, March 07, 2007
The Quiet Energy Crisis as Mexican Crude Oil production tumbles / Commodities / Investing
By: Money_and_Markets
Do you think gasoline prices are too high? Do you think illegal immigration is a problem? Well, get ready for more of both, because Mexico, the #3 supplier of imported fuel to the U.S., is spiraling into a quiet energy crisis that could interrupt our oil supplies, send shockwaves through our economy, and force a million or more Mexicans to migrate across our border.
Consider this: In December 2005, Mexico sent the U.S. 1.7 million barrels of oil per day (bpd). This past December, Mexico only exported 1.2 million bpd to the U.S.
Why is Mexico sending less oil? Because it's producing less oil. Total oil output fell to just below 3 million bpd in December 2006. That's down from nearly 3.4 million barrels at the start of the year, and Mexico's lowest rate of oil output in seven years.
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Wednesday, March 07, 2007
Central Bank Bought 20 tonnes of locally mined gold for its reserves / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
In an almost unnoticed move in the market a dramatic event took place in January of this year. We have long talked of the easy way for a Central Bank to accumulate gold reserves unobtrusively. Usually we have pointed to Russia and China when this is discussed as they are the two nations that have expressed major concerns about the future of the $ and who are producers of gold. Should they decide to acquire gold for their reserves in earnest, the first move they are likely to make is to buy the locally mined gold.
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Tuesday, March 06, 2007
Commodities Market Wrap - Gold, Silver, Oil and Mining Stocks / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
The latest buzz is that the commodity bull is over, sighing its last breath of life. Someone forgot to tell China the story, as last week they imported more copper then at any time since June 2005.
Cattle prices in Chicago surged to their highest level since 2003, and hog futures also rose. Sugar also put in a good week's showing.
Most analysts tout the CRB Index as proof positive that the commodity bull is dead and gone. The CRB is a weighted index, with oil and other commodities receiving a heavy overall weighting, which skews the reliability of the index to provide a true picture of the commodity sector in general.
Below is a chart of the CCI Index, which is an equally weighted index of commodities. Each commodity has the same weighting as any other commodity. Thus, a much clearer and truer picture of the commodity sector is revealed.
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Tuesday, March 06, 2007
Uranium Investing - In Situ Recovery Mining: A New Method for Uranium Mining Explained / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy
By: James_Finch
In Situ Recovery (ISR) uranium mining is responsible for nearly all U.S. uranium mining (except for recovery through phosphates). More than 20 percent of global uranium mining now comes from the in situ recovery method, predominantly through In Situ Leach (ISL) mining in Kazakhstan and in Australia. Because of the large number of ISR uranium projects on the horizon within the next ten years, both in the United States, Kazakhstan and Australia, the in situ (ISR) uranium mining method will provide U.S and global utilities with tens of millions of pounds of newly mined uranium by 2020.
Monday, March 05, 2007
Energy Markets Survive Global Financial Markets Sell off / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Elliot_H_Gue
The sudden, sharp drop in global equity markets Tuesday has been the subject of almost endless chatter in the financial media this week. But for the most part, this global selloff failed to touch the energy markets.
As of Thursday's close, crude oil and gasoline prices were actually higher for the week. And energy stocks, as measured by the Philadelphia Oil Services Index, were down only around 1.5 percent, a modest move for that index. Energy-related stocks and commodities were among the few green up-arrows in a sea of red on trading screens Tuesday.
Although four days is far too short a period to use as a basis for making grandiose projections, the contrast with the May/June selloff last year is instructive. Check out the chart below for a closer look.
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Monday, March 05, 2007
Silver Forecast - Commercials shorted silver before the Drop! Short-term oversold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
The arguments relating to the COT structure and its application as a predictive tool set out in the Gold Market update, apply equally well to Silver, so readers are referred to it for details. In this Silver Market update we will look briefly at specific developments in the silver chart over the past week.
One big difference between silver and gold is that silver failed at resistance at its highs of last year, while gold never managed to get near to its highs. What this means is that silver is, as we have known for some time, outperforming gold, although that may seem rather academic right now.
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Monday, March 05, 2007
Silver becoming Oversold as it targets the 200 day Moving Average at $12.40 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Roland_Watson
If I repeat first of all what I said in last week's update: "Silver could approach the old high of $15 before dropping back to near $14 which will be the last decent buy point before we soar."
That was half right and half wrong. Silver continued on up to a spot intraday high of $14.68 (though the futures got as high as $14.885 on Monday) and then dropped. It did not stop at $14 however. I also suggested:
"I think that silver has only a week or so to test $15 before being pulled back to perhaps its 50 day moving average. When silver moves into a bullish phase, the 50 day moving average takes over from the 200 day moving average as the baseline."
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Monday, March 05, 2007
Gold Forecast - The Commercials Got it right! Gold to be weak for some weeks / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
On 21st February an article was posted titled COMMERCIALS ON THE ROPES. This article was based on the erroneous presumption that "this time round it will be different" - that the COT pattern would be broken by a surge in physical demand.
Well, as subsequent events have proved, this time round it wasn't different, it was the same as it has always been. The Commercial shorts rose to a very high level and gold's advance was killed and it went into sharp reverse. This was a serious error of judgment that will not be repeated.
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Sunday, March 04, 2007
Gold and Silver Analysis - One Step Forward, Two Steps Back / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Dominick
It's true that the buying power of gold and silver could increase considerably during a period of acute economic calamity. But, as economists and other analysts have been quick to note over the past few days, the current data simply do not decisively forecast a recession in the U.S. , let alone a catastrophe of apocalyptic proportions. Yes, mortgage defaults are still a legitimate concern, but the numbers simply don't show any significant spillover from the housing or credit bubbles, at least not yet.
The most recent manufacturing data actually indicates a modest recovery in that sector. Even weak capital expenditure in the durable goods data, the seeming straw that broke the camel's back, is a shot across the bow, but hardly a sign of the end times.
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