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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Wednesday, January 10, 2007

What’s Behind the Crash in Crude Oil ? / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy

By: Gary_Dorsch

Is it enough to point the finger of blame for the latest crash in crude oil on the arrival of global warming? Unusually warm weather in Russia, Europe, and the United States, with temperatures reaching the upper 60’s in New York’s financial district, weakened global demand for heating oil by 23% below normal last week, and a 30% drop in heating oil demand is also expected in the days ahead.

Quite often, markets seem designed to fool most people most of the time. Global economic growth and oil demand growth are usually linked, so given expectations for global GDP growth of 4.4% in 2007, it’s logical to expect global demand for crude oil to increase by at least 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) this year. However, that would fall short of 1.8 million bpd of new oil supplies that OPEC expects to come on stream from Angola, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Russia this year.
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Commodities

Wednesday, January 10, 2007

Is the Commodities Bull Getting Buried Under the US Housing Rubble? / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy

By: Jas_Jain

Is the Commodities Bull Getting Buried Under the US Housing Rubble?

Please look at the following graph and see if you can spot correlation between the US Housing Bubble and the DJ-AIG commodity index (DJ-AIGCI, a balanced index of various complexes) bubble of recent years.

Is the Commodities Bull Getting Buried Under the US Housing Rubble?

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Commodities

Monday, January 08, 2007

Russia cuts oil to Europe in response to Belarus syphoning off thousands barrels of oil / Commodities / Strategic News

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Belarus smarting from the doubling in the price of gas agreed just over a week ago, started to illegally syphon oil from the Druzhba pipeline,after the Russian pipeline operator Transneft refused to pay a retaliatory duty imposed by Belarus of $45 per metric ton of Russian oil shipped to Western Europe in pipelines that cross Belarus.

Russia cuts oil to Europe in response to Belarus syphoning off thousands barrels of oil

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Commodities

Saturday, January 06, 2007

Quantum finance and the scramble for gold / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy

By: Adrian_Ash

If you can't spot the patsy, then it must be you, says Adrian Ash. Get ready for the next raft of post-Crash regulations...

Only in finance do the losers get to write history. The government then prints their memoirs in the statute books, while a new volume of folly and greed is begun.

Witness Barnard's Act of 1734. It sought "to prevent the infamous practice of stock-jobbing" that had peaked and exploded with the South Sea Bubble of 1720. Investors had long since fled Change Alley, however, and gone back to trading government bonds instead.
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Commodities

Thursday, January 04, 2007

Crude Oil tumbles through support levels, is the bull market over ? / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Crude oil plunges through key support levels built during the recent consolidation area of 56 to 63.

Crude Oil had been in an up trend since start of 2002, which had taken the price from just over $15 to just shy of $80 going into July 2006. Now following a failed attempt to resume the up trend, crude is threatening to end the bull market by yesterdays price action in the face of a much milder than expected US winter.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, December 28, 2006

Gold Forecast - Four ways to profit as gold is set to shine in 2007 / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Money_and_Markets

It's been a wild year in the markets, and if recent events are any barometer, 2007 is going to be even crazier. Right off the bat, let me reaffirm my most important point: Gold is going to be the asset to own in 2007. The yellow metal posted an impressive return in 2006 — almost 22% for spot gold through yesterday. But I consider that move to be just the prelude to much higher levels. Indeed, gold's action so far is just an indicator of things to come ... rising inflation ... a falling dollar ... and insurmountable debts in Washington.

More on that in a moment. First, let me take you back in time ...

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Commodities

Friday, December 22, 2006

Buying gold - The easy and safe way for personal investors to Buy, Sell and hold gold at market price / Commodities / Investing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Russian and Chinese governments together with private investors are all buying gold bullion in strength, and the gold price has more than doubled in 5 years as a result. Owning physical gold is fast returning as the favoured way to secure wealth against the rising tide of global economic and financial weaknesses.

BullionVault.com is a revolutionary online market for private investors to buy gold, and later sell, directly within international high-security vaults. Customers trade gold with each other, or BullionVault.com, at the best price in a multi-currency real-time market. The service launched in May 2005 and is proving immensely popular. All bullion is held in the Brinks vault of choice in London, Zurich or New York. All accounts are openly audited daily.

BullionVault is currently being promoted with 1 gram of FREE gold bullion, stored in their Swiss vault, which is valued at $24 FREE

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Commodities

Friday, December 15, 2006

Six critical market forecasts for 2007 ! / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Money_and_Markets

With the new year just about two weeks away, I think now is a good time to take stock of where we've been, where we are, and where the markets are going next year. Despite recent gyrations, especially in natural resources prices, the positions in my Real Wealth Report continue to pay off handsomely overall. And the best news is that I expect greater gains next year! Reason: All my models point to 2007 as the point in time when all the powerful forces I've been telling you about converge into some major explosions! So, without further ado, here are my six forecasts for next year ...
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Commodities

Sunday, December 03, 2006

Crude Oil rallies, but a widening Contango could lead to a collapse in oil prices during 2007 / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As crude rallies to $63, we take a look at the effects of backwardation and Contango on the commodity markets such as crude oil. Knowing and allowing for these in future price trends can make the difference between profits and losses even if you get the market right on price direction.

Crude Oil rallies, but a widening Contango could lead to a collapse in oil prices during 2007

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Commodities

Saturday, November 25, 2006

Are Arab Oil kingdoms and China Attracted to Golds Glitter? / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy

By: Gary_Dorsch

American political history has repeated itself again. Since World War II, whichever political party controlled the White House during mid-term Elections has lost an average of 6 Senate seats and 30 seats in the House of Representatives. On November 7th, it was the Republicans’ turn to endure a thumping, losing control of Congress to the Democrats for the first time since 1994.
 
Just a few days earlier, US Labor Apparatchniks had revised their originally reported 128,000 increase in August payrolls into a gain of 230,000 jobs, and September’s 51,000 increase was tripled to a 148,000 gain. The change for the two months combined was the biggest upward revision since July and August 2000. That sent the US jobless rate 0.2% lower to 4.4% of the workforce, a 5-year low. 
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Crude Oil dips as it attempts to make a base above $56 before rallying / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Crude oil prices fell as mild weather countered OPEC's announcement that it will cut production. Crude Oil continues to build a base between 58 and 62, above the support zone of $56, in prelude to an uptrend after the sell off into October that took crude oil to technically very over sold state.

Crude Oil dips as it attempts to make a base above $56 before rallying

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Commodities

Thursday, October 26, 2006

Silver Forecast - Bullish Pennant Pattern Developing / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Silver recently followed the other commodities lower, such as gold and crude oil. But unlike gold, the price pattern is much more bullish, and resembles the Bullish Pennant, which is an strong and explosive bull pattern.

Silver Forecast - Bullish Pennant pattern Developing

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Crude Oil is attempting to make a base above $56 / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As expected Crude Oil is attempting to make a bottom after the recent sharp decline, but the quality of the bottom making process is poor, which suggests that an ensuing rally will also be poor.

Crude Oil is attempting to make a base above $56

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Crude Oil dips below $59, When will the uptrend resume ? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Despite news that OPEC will cut production by 1 million barrels per day, crude fell below $59. The market also shrugged off news of the unrest in Nigeria which implies a significant shift in sentiment which in months gone past would have resulted in surge in prices. Which suggests the market is pricing in demand reduction and does not believe that OPEC will go ahead with the quota cuts.

Crude Oil dips below $59, will to still go higher ?

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

The Commodities Bull Market - Where to Next ? / Commodities / CRB Index

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The speculators long of the metals and energy are reeling from the sell off these past few months, where greed has been gradually replaced by FEAR ! Many now wonder whether the bull market has come to an end.

The Commodities Bull Market - Where to Next ?

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Commodities

Monday, September 18, 2006

What's behind the Meltdown in the Commodity markets? / Commodities / CRB Index

By: Sarah_Jones

By Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends

“A Trend in Motion will stay in motion, until some major outside force knocks it off its course.” After climbing to a 25-year high of 365.45 on May 11 th , the Reuters Jefferies Commodities (CRB) Index began to show signs of fatigue in June and July, and then stumbled into a free-fall in August and September. With the CRB index slicing below its four-year upward sloping trend-line in early September, chart watchers would probably agree that a peak in the bullish cycle has been reached. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, August 28, 2006

Is the 'Commodity Super Cycle' Fizzling Out? / Commodities / CRB Index

By: Gary_Dorsch

By Gary Dorsch, Editor of Global Money Trends newsletter

Since reaching a 25-year high of 365.45 on May 11 th , the Reuters Commodity Index, (CRB index), has been showing signs of fatigue, after a relentless four-year climb. The CRB index doubled from four years ago, led by commodity superstars, such as crude oil, copper, gold, platinum, silver, and sugar. However, since topping out three months ago, the CRB index has slumped about 9%, whipping up speculation that the 'Commodity Super Cycle' is fizzling out.  

Defending its decision to pause its two-year rate hike campaign at 5.25% on August 8th , the Federal Reserve predicted that a softer US economy would take the steam out of commodity prices. 'Inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting contained inflation expectations and the cumulative effects of monetary policy actions and other factors restraining aggregate demand,' the Fed said. Putting his fragile reputation on the line, Fed chief Ben Bernanke hinted at a rate pause on July 19th , despite elevated commodity prices. “The recent rise in inflation is of concern, and possible increases in the prices of oil as well as other raw materials remain a risk to the inflation outlook. On the other hand, a slowing economy should reduce inflation pressures,” he told lawmakers on Capitol Hill.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Gold - The Correction is NOT Over ! / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Nadeem_Walayat

After peaking at over $730, Gold corrected to 540, and the subsquent rally brought gold right to the 61.8% Fibanacii retracement which held ! This strongly suggests that gold has further downside to go, before it can resume the bullmarket.....

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Sunday, July 23, 2006

Mid-East 'Oil Shock' Rattles Global Stock Markets, Energizes Gold / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Gary_Dorsch

Since withdrawing its troops from Southern Lebanon six years ago, Israel has carefully watched Iranian backed Hizbollah guerillas plant landmines and booby traps along their common border, and then stockpile about 12,000 katushya rockets, with ranges up to 100 km (60 miles), aimed at Israel's northern frontier. Until July 12 th , the prevailing view in Jerusalem was that Hizbollah would hold its fire, unless a wider war in the Middle East broke out over Iran's clandestine nuclear program.

However, the Middle East tinderbox was set on fire on July 12 th , when Hizbollah guerillas sneaked across the border and killed eight Israeli soldiers and kidnapped two others, which Israel's prime-minister Ehud Olmert called an “act of war”, and promised a "very painful and far-reaching" response. Hizbollah is the only Lebanese faction to retain its weapons after the 1975-90 civil-war, and is also a political party, with 14 members in the Beirut parliament and two cabinet ministers.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Sunday, August 07, 2005

Peak Oil and can Saudi Arabia come to the rescue ? / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As crude oil hits ever higher, Peak Oil concerns are not new, having first been raised by M. King Hubbert, a Shell Oil geophysicist, over 50 years ago. In a now-famous paper written in 1956, Hubbert suggested that production rates for oil (and other fossil fuels) follow a bell curve: In new fields, clean, highly pressurized oil flows abundantly to the surface, and as new wells are drilled, production rates rise steadily. After about half the oil has been extracted, however, production rates start to go down. There's still oil left, but declining pressure, exhaustion of the best oil pockets, and increasing contamination bring it to the surface ever more slowly. Applying this production model to the entire United States, taking into account the rate at which new fields were being discovered, Hubbert predicted that oil production in the lower 48 states would peak around 1970 and then start declining. And the facts is that oil production in the USA DID peak in 1970, and has since gradually declined from some 9.5 million barrels a day, to days level of 4.6 million barrels a day.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


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