Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Gold False Break Lower to Spook Traders Before Resumption of Bull Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
We don't normally look at fundamentals in these Gold Market updates, but it is worth stopping for a moment to consider the implications of the latest stroke of genius announced last week by the Fed in its desperate attempts to prevent a credit crunch, as it has important implications for the price of gold.
Like a magician pulling a rabbit out of a hat, the Fed and foreign central banks announced that they will conjure up $50 billion to inject into the system, which they will generate by selling low interest rate loans for those who like throwing good money after bad, or have no choice but to.
Monday, December 17, 2007
Silver Hit by Dollar Strength - Further Near term Weakness Expected / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
In the last Silver Market update on 2nd December it was stated that if dollar strength continued as expected, silver could drop below the support zone centered on $14 and head lower towards the next support level in the $13.25 - $13.50 area. Since that time it has held up above the $14 support zone, but it dropped quite sharply late last week on renewed dollar strength and at the time of writing on Sunday 16th it has just broken below this support. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 17, 2007
Gold Strength Expected as Global Fiat Financial System Continues to Deteriorate / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Gold_Investments
Gold was down $5.50 to $793.10 per ounce in New York Friday and silver was down 28 cents to $13.81 per ounce. Gold opened strongly in Asia but has since sold off and the London AM Fix was at $787.00. At the London AM Fix gold was trading at £391.38 GBP (marginally down from Friday's London AM Fix at £392.18) and €549.08 EUR (up from Friday's London AM Fix at €547.18). Thus while gold has sold off in dollars, it has remained flat in sterling and actually increased in euros.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 16, 2007
Gold and Silver Stocks Looking Bearish - Traders Don't be Fooled by the End of Day Settlement Prices! / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
Gold ended the week just about where it started but the “feel” of the activity had a decided negative emphasis. Will this week set the pace for the next few months?
Closing Price versus Settlement Price
I have mentioned in the past that I use gold futures to obtain my gold prices used for charts and analysis. I usually use the contract month with the largest trading volume and open interest. When it comes time to change contract months I may go through a little song and dance routine modifying the price to ease into the new price schedule of the new month. This week we had a vivid picture of another feature of futures prices most investors may not be fully aware of. There are really two different “closing” prices. One is referred to as a closing price by the commodities exchange and the other is referred to as a settlement price. I do not consider myself an expert in commodities and futures and have been curious about these two prices. What I found was quite interesting for a technician who likes to have ACTUAL trading prices to work with.
Sunday, December 16, 2007
Worsening Credit Crunch Crisis to Send Gold Soaring and US Dollar Plunging / Commodities / Credit Crunch
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
Why are the banks hurting so much?
In the U.K. banks have asked top U.K. corporate clients not to draw on lending facilities to which they are entitled in order to preserve their balance sheets as they approach the financial year-end. The banks are urging some of their biggest clients not to draw on standby credit facilities as the sub-prime crisis and squeeze on interbank lending have affected banks' ability to fund themselves. The problems started with the closure of the commercial paper market as a means of cheap funding for companies in the summer. Banks have to provide standby financing of up to 100% to backstop commercial paper programs.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 16, 2007
Subprime Credit Crisis Far From Over - Precious Metals to Benefit During 2008 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Joe_Nicholson
“I've been following a fourth wave triangle consolidation pattern in gold that, as the daily chart below reveals, is still valid. Taking out the 50-day moving average, currently about $784 in the futures, would be a warning sign and indicate a deeper correction to the $759-775 area. Silver also held up well … with the 200-day sma looking like strong support, an intermediate bullish outlook in silver is looking increasingly favorable even as a selloff to $13.50 continues to appear likely.The Fed will err on the side of caution on Tuesday, likely with a 25 bps cut and … the impetus for explosive new rallies in metals over the short term seems to be lacking unless crisis returns to the financial markets. This is certainly not entirely unlikely between now and next summer, so at least until then one new high in precious metals is likely.” ~ Precious Points: Consolidation in Gold and Silver, December 08, 2007
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 16, 2007
Uranium Stocks Momentum Still Bearish / Commodities / Uranium
By: Merv_Burak
Ho-Hum, another day and another bummer. We are getting close to a potential break-out but unfortunately that could be on the down side. The Merv's Daily Uranium Index closed lower by 0.068 points or 1.61%. That may not sound like much but as with water torture little drops on your forehead may not sound like much but after a while it's hell. There were only 9 stocks closing higher on the day while 36 stocks closed lower. 5 stocks remained unchanged. All of the biggies closed lower. Cameco lost 0.4%, Denison lost 1.9%, Paladin lost 3.0%, UEX lost 2.6% and Uranium One lost 1.9%. The best performer on the day was Nuinsco with a miserly 5.5% gain while we had two worst performers, Pele Mountain and UNOR, both with 10.0% losses.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 15, 2007
Crude Oil Demand to Continue Accelerating for Decades - Energy Sector Trends Analysis / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Joseph_Dancy
While we did not see $100 a barrel crude oil in the futures market last month we remain bullish on the energy sector. One of the more interesting charts we happened across last month was from the Oil Drum. It plots global crude oil and natural gas liquid production versus time. (See chart at right)Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 15, 2007
Coal and Commodities Bull Markets for Several More Years / Commodities / Resources Investing
By: Emanuel_Balarie
Why coal (and other commodities)
should be in your stocking this year
...and the next year ... and the year after that!
For several years now, commodities have garnered attention because of their prolific appreciation. The price of oil has climbed by over $80/barrel during this first stage of this bull market, gold prices have more than tripled in price, and soybeans, corn, wheat and coal have suddenly become part of the investor's vocabulary. At the same time, however, it seems that while investors are now more familiar with commodities (in the general sense), they are still apprehensive about finally taking the steps to add commodities to their investment portfolios.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 14, 2007
Euro Gold Breakout Above Resistance Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Zeal_LLC
Despite Washington and the Fed working fast and furiously to destroy international confidence in the US dollar, it still remains the currency of choice for pricing many international markets. Among these is gold. Regardless of where this metal is mined, it is almost always priced and sold in US dollars.
If you are an American investor, this is great. We have always thought of gold as denominated in dollars and it is hard to imagine any other way of thinking about it. But if you live outside the States, the gold price is a lot more relevant as quoted in your own local currency. Your mind is wired to think in local-currency terms and various investment options are only comparable within this life-long mental framework.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 14, 2007
Gold Sell off Due to Dollar Strength on the Encouraging Retail Sales Data / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Gold_Investments
Gold was down $14.60 to $798.60 per ounce in New York yesterday and silver was down 55 cents to $14.09 per ounce. Subsequently gold rallied back up to $803 in Asian trading but it has since given up those gains and has gradually traded down in European markets and the London AM Fix was at $796.25. At the London AM Fix gold was trading at £392.18 GBP (down from yesterday's London AM Fix at £396.18) and €547.18 EUR (down from yesterday's London AM Fix at €550.60).Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 14, 2007
US Dollar Rallies and Gold Fall Ahead of US Inflation Data / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE SPOT GOLD MARKET slipped back early Friday from a 1% bounce overnight, dropping to a new six-session low beneath $792 per ounce as the US Dollar rallied towards the Wall Street open.
Asian stock markets ended the week lower, dropping more than 3% from last Friday in Tokyo . Europe 's major bourses reversed early gains to trade flat by lunchtime in London , while US crude oil ticked higher to $92.34 per barrel.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Crude Oil Price Manipulated In advance of Sampling Date for Producer Price Index? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Rob_Kirby
Today I telephoned the good folks at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington, D.C. I phoned to find out a little bit more about how one of the key inputs – CRUDE OIL - in PPI [Producer Price Index] is determined each and every month.
Here's the nuts of what I was told: “Crude oil price data inputs for the PPI are measured from sources of the subject month on the Tuesday of the week that contains the 13 th day.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Gold Prices Plunging Despite Soaring Inflation (PPI) / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mike_Paulenoff
How ironic that on a day that exposed outsized inflation data (PPI), gold prices are plunging...and so are the precious metal mining stocks. To put it simply and concisely, the three-month pattern carved out by the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (AMEX: GDX) has taken the form of a large top. The Fan Lines (light green on the chart) represent prior support lines that have been violated, after which the price structure rallies to test their extension prior to turning lower again.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Invest in the Agricultural Commodites Boom as Food Inflation Soars / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Money_and_Markets
If the Fed were smart, it would have slashed interest rates to the bone this week, instead of dilly-dallying around. That way, everyone would know exactly where the economy stands (on the edge of a cliff) and what the Fed was doing about it.
But that's not how things work. Instead, the high priests of finance like to "tinker" with the economy, and in my opinion, they do a lousy job of it. In the end, the Fed almost always ends up making matters worse.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Central Banks Money Markets $110 Billion Injection Greeted with Skepticism / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Gold_Investments
GoldGold was up $1.60 to $813.20 per ounce in New York yesterday and silver was down 3 cents to $14.64 per ounce. Gold rallied sharply on the news <1400 GMT> of the latest injection of $110 billion into the global money markets and rallied from $809 to $817 within an hour. Subsequently gold has gradually traded down in Asian and European markets and the London AM Fix was at $809. Gold has traded up in pounds sterling and euros and at the London AM Fix gold was trading at £396.18 GBP (up from yesterday's London AM Fix at £394.77) and €550.60 EUR (up from yesterday's London AM Fix at €549.21).
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Stock Markets Slide Despite Central Banks $110 billion Action - Gold Safehaven / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES drifted lower from yesterday's two-week highs early Thursday, recording an AM Fix in London of $809 per ounce as global stock markets fell hard despite Wednesday's attempt by five of the world's biggest central banks to ease pressure in world money markets. London's FTSE100 index lost 1.3% at the opening while US government bonds reversed Wednesday's three-year record sell off, pushing the yield on two-year Treasuries 3 pips lower to 3.10%. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Subprime Mortgage Bailout Plan's Silver Lining / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes:Last week, President Bush and Treasury Secretary Paulson rolled out their mortgage bailout plan. And most investors have heard enough to know they don't like it.
Just three of the reasons why ...
#1. Moral hazard is gone. This plan rewards speculation of the worst kind. Investors and homeowners alike have learned that the government will provide golden parachutes if they take the most reckless, irresponsible course imaginable.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Gold Gains as World Stock Market Falls Following Fed Rate Cut / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
Gold Gains 1.7% from Post-Fed Slump as Oil, Base Metals & Grains Slip; "Double Whammy" Due in 2008 as World Stock Markets Fall
SPOT GOLD PRICES added to their post-Fed recovery early Wednesday, trading more than 1.7% above the overnight low – and well above Tuesday's start – at $810 per ounce as the US open drew near.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
AGRI-FOOD THOUGHTS - US Agricultural Exports Surging As World Demand Grows / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Want your wealth to grow? Then, own something that grows. U.S. exports of agricultural products this year to September were almost $62 billion. That represents a 22% increase over same period in 2006, and more than the entire year of 2004. How many industries are experiencing that type of growth? International agricultural trade for U.S., exports plus imports, was almost $115 billion, a 16% increase over 2006. Read full article... Read full article...