Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, January 30, 2007
ELLIOTT WAVE Analysis of Gold and HUI - Triangle Pattern / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Dan_Stinson
Gold is in a triangle pattern and it currently appears to have started wave e down. We should see minor downside for the wave e count, before a reversal and subsequent breakout to the upside. The downside could complete as 3 waves or as 5 waves with further sideways action in wave e towards the apex of the triangle. A break below the lower trendline and the wave c low in the triangle would be short term bearish indicating further downside before a substantial move higher. A break above the wave b high before a pullback could indicate 2 possible scenarios.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 29, 2007
Investment Shock and Awe - Opportunities from growing risk of world conflict / Commodities / Investing
By: Money_and_Markets
5 new shockwaves, 5 big dangers and 6 opportunities
A new world war is unfolding with untold consequences for investors. But Wall Street remains largely oblivious. This war is not confined strictly to Afghanistan and Iraq. It is already spreading to Pakistan, Iran, Gaza, Lebanon and beyond. Nor are its protagonists limited to the few countries regularly mentioned in news reports. To the contrary, even considering only those countries that are directly involved with troops or weapons, I count over forty — the U.S., Britain, Germany, and nearly all the members of NATO ... plus Iran, Syria, Pakistan and many other Muslim nations from Morocco to Malaysia.
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Monday, January 29, 2007
The Real International Price of Silver / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy
By: Robert_Watson
What is the real price of an ounce of silver and just how widespread should a silver bull market be? We have watched over the last few years as the price of silver in US dollars has marched upwards from the lows of $4 to the recent highs of $15. However, the good luck of silver has been mainly laid at the door of the bad luck of US dollar. The US dollar depreciates and hence the price of silver in US dollars appreciates. Seems a simple enough equation, but surely a real bull market will stand on its own merits and not on the misfortunes of another? With that in mind, is silver worth investing in by lovers of silver from other countries across the globe?Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 28, 2007
The Global Warming Resources Boom - Invest in Uranium, Gold, Silver and Diamonds / Commodities / Investing
By: Money_and_Markets
Seeping Giants and Untold Riches! - Look out your window and see if pigs are flying.
Why? Because the impossible is happening: Major corporations are joining forces with environmental groups in an unprecedented, unholy alliance to push for quicker action on global warming. A decade ago, if you'd placed bets on this kind of partnership emerging, you probably could have gotten 100-to-1 pay-offs in your favor.
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Sunday, January 28, 2007
Gold Market sectorwide Buy Alert / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
Gold is looking technically stronger than it has done for the past 16 months. It would have escaped the notice of many that it broke out last week from a little-known technical pattern known as 3-arc Fan Correction. This pattern was not detected earlier because it is rather rare, and instead attempts were made to define the action in gold since last May as some kind of triangle, which could, of course, be bearish. However, a 3-arc Fan was clearly identified in the Streettracks chart last week on www.clivemaund.com, prompting a re-examination of the gold chart, whereupon it became evident that a similar pattern exists in gold. This is very important, because it largely sweeps away lingering doubts about where gold is headed. This is because these patterns are very bullish, and seldom break down.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 27, 2007
Precious Metals Stocks update Gold, Silver : Follow the Money / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Dominick
As we mentioned last week, there are numerous factors weighing on the spot price of precious metals and this fact can make it challenging from week to week to say exactly which forces will predominate and determine the next direction the market will take. The forces include sentiment, interest rates, speculative demand, but, of course, the bottom line is money. If you can follow the money, understanding where it's moving and why, then you'll know what's driving the metals markets. The operative words over the last two weeks have been:
"In the short term, if next week's data continue to nourish the sentiment that the economy has rounded the bottom, a veritable soft landing, then metals have a realistic shot at overtaking resistance. The hotter the economy appears to become, the more willingness investors should have to get back into mining stocks and the greater the inflation concerns will become."
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Thursday, January 25, 2007
The Cycle Turn and Trend Indicator Applied to Oils and Copper / Commodities / Cycles Analysis
By: Tim_Wood
If I could only have one indicator it would be the Cycle Turn Indicator. This indicator is primarily used on the intermediate-term weekly charts to tell me the current market direction and to identify intermediate-term turn points. Staying on the right side of the market really is as simple as following this indicator, which we do. The Dow theory, cyclical and statistical work is used to "look over the horizon" and to tell us what we should expect further down the road in the future. My basic philosophy is to use the Dow theory, my cyclical and statistical analysis to develop the longer-term market expectation, all the while using the very important intermediate-term Cycle Turn Indicator in the interim.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
Silver Market Update - Breakout to follow Gold higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
Subtle but important changes in recent days have substantially increased the chances of upside breakouts by gold and silver. The situation is now very finely balanced with an army of traders either sat on the fence, or, depending on which way it breaks, on the wrong side of the trade. When it does break out - and it is beginning to look like it will be to the upside, there will be a stampede and an upside breakout from here could thus easily involve a $1 - $1.50 up day for silver.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
Gold Market Update - Upside breakout likely - Options straddle opportunity / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
Subtle but important changes in recent days have substantially increased the chances of upside breakouts by gold and silver. The situation is now very finely balanced with an army of traders either sat on the fence, or, depending on which way it breaks, on the wrong side of the trade. When it does break out - and it is beginning to look like it will be to the upside, there will be a stampede and an upside breakout from here could thus easily involve a $20 - $30 up day for gold.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 22, 2007
Gold Analysis - Rumors of Metals' Demise are Greatly Exaggerated! / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy
By: Dominick
Even after last week's rally, there is still talk about the run in commodities being finished. If you watched CNBC, you heard over and over that money had rotated out of commodities and into tech and, later, into retail. But, as we proudly boasted last week, even in the midst of this so-called "collapse", gold and silver never broke their psychological $600 and $12 support levels. And the action since last weekend's update fit the proscription very closely. We said:
The daily charts below reveal that GLD is now very close to resistance at its 50-day moving average. A convincing move to $63 in the ETF would echo the signal that the spot market has cleared a path to $640 gold, but it will take more than technical impetus alone.
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Sunday, January 21, 2007
Gold Bull Market set to resume / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Gold has been in a corrective pattern since the May 2006 peak, attempting to build a base in anticipation of the resumption of the bull market. Now finally, Gold appears ready to resume the up trend with clear technical indicators signaling a breakout is imminent.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 20, 2007
Leveraging Silver Investments with Silver Stocks / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy
By: Robert_Watson
I talked a couple of weeks back about how silver could be used to leverage the price of gold but what about silver mining stocks leveraging the price of silver? In that previous article a four-year rolling leverage of silver over gold was calculated to show how silver either out-performed or under-performed gold as bull markets waxed and waned. Applying the same principles, we have the following 4-year leverages for the mining companies that make up The Silver Analyst Stock Composite Index. The stocks are listed according to performance. The record maximum leverage is given to the right as well as the date on which it occurred.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 20, 2007
. / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Joe_Nicholson
Even after last week's rally, there is still talk about the run in commodities being finished. If you watched CNBC, you heard over and over that money had rotated out of commodities and into tech and, later, into retail. But, as we proudly boasted last week, even in the midst of this so-called "collapse", gold and silver never broke their psychological $600 and $12 support levels. And the action since last weekend's update fit the proscription very closely.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 19, 2007
Commodity Markets Strategic Review - Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Copper / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
As an investor, what matters to you more than anything, what is of paramount importance, is determining whether what you have invested in, or are thinking of investing in, is going to go up, down or sideways. If you are long you want the market to go up, if you are short you want it to go down, and if you have written both Call and Put options, you want it to move sideways. All consideration of fundamentals is subordinate to this Prime Objective.
Gold, Silver and Precious Metals stocks have been trading sideways for about 9 months now, following their strong advance to the April - May peak of last year, with many smaller stocks having slithered down a "slope of hope" to plumb low levels in the recent past. Understandably, many investors in the sector are growing increasingly fed up and frustrated with this situation, especially as every time the sector looks set to break higher it has suffered a smackdown. The purpose of this essay is to assess the current situation and to discuss effective tactics for dealing with it.
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Friday, January 19, 2007
Silver rally expected to peak in the near term for a possible shorting opportunity / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
This Silver Market update will be truncated relative to the Gold Market update, as many of the arguments set out in that update apply equally well to silver. Silver suffered a similar New Year smack down to gold, broke down from a similar intermediate Head-and-Shoulders top area, and broke back above the "neckline" of the pattern on Friday, which is as a result also close to aborting.
The strength of the move on Friday indicates that we should see follow through next week, but that the advance will stall out either at the resistance in the $13.25 area, or possibly at the resistance zone in the $13.75 - $15.20 area. At this point, depending on conditions prevailing at the time, we will consider shorting it with a fairly close overhead stop.
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Thursday, January 18, 2007
Gold Rally could run out of steam in the near term / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
We have seen the severe smackdown anticipated in the last Gold Market update, although it did first manage to trip our overhead stops by a whisker before plummeting. This resulted in a breakdown from the intermediate Head-and-Shoulders top area shown on the 6-month chart. On Friday, however, it surged back above the "neckline' of this pattern, which is close to aborting. Although Friday's rally was certainly impressive, we are definitely not out of the woods yet, as will be readily apparent when we look at the 6-year gold chart.
The strength of the move on Friday implies that we will see follow through over the next week or so, with a few down days thrown in. However the advance is likely to be capped once it reaches the $645 - $655 area, where there is substantial resistance - if it succeeds in getting that far. We will then need to review it in the light of what is going on in the T-bill and T-bond market and the dollar, with a view to possibly shorting it again.
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Thursday, January 18, 2007
Stock Market and Gold Wrap Up for 2006 and prospects for 2007 / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Aden_Forecast
Most of the markets moved higher in 2006, driven by lots of liquidity. Stocks, commodities, precious metals and currencies... they all rose. Let's now see how they ended the year...
LARGE CAPS: THE BEST SECTOR
As the year drew to a close, the Dow Industrials hit new record highs and the S&P500 ended up gaining 11.78% in 2006. The Dow Transportations rose 8.59% while the Utilities gained 10.44%. The least impressive index was Nasdaq, which was up 7.65%, but the big stock winner was the Dow Industrials. It rose an impressive 14.90%.
Some of the foreign emerging markets did much better than the U.S. and other major international stock markets. Among the best were Mexico, Hong Kong and Singapore, which gained on average 34.5%.
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Thursday, January 18, 2007
HUI Gold bugs Index and Crude Oil Analysis - Extreme Fear / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
Stockmarket trading has certain similarities with driving a car. As a commuter you may have driven the same route a thousand times to get to work, but every day is a new day and you always have to be ready for the unexpected, such as a child running out in front of you or someone suddenly cutting you up in heavy traffic.
We have traded these markets on www.clivemaund.com successfully over the past several weeks, avoiding heavy losses and making money in Put options in stocks such as Newmont Mining, and, just a few days back, or even a day or two ago, it looked like the drop would continue. But, like the first breath of wind before a storm, evidence has begun to appear that a possibly dramatic reversal to the upside may be close at hand.
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Thursday, January 18, 2007
Precious Metals Warrants Index - Investment Performance 2006 / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy
By: Dudley_Baker
Investors are bombarded these days with new indices and ETF's on virtually all kinds of different mixes of the same information. Most have similar performance levels and must be rather confusing to most investors. We at Precious Metals Warrants have our own index ( PMWI ) for which we just completed our analysis for 2006. You will find no other index similar to ours, guaranteed. Currently, this index is our own proprietary index and cannot be bought and is being reported only on a yearly basis, last year 2005 being the first year.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
Silver Elliott Wave analysis & forecast / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Robert_Watson
The silver market continues to move in a state of flux as the metal struggles to free itself from its current period of price correction. However, one must not take this to be a sign of overall weakness in the silver bull market but rather a normal adjustment to the recent $15 highs that caused silver to race too far ahead of its normative indicators. In terms of Elliott Wave analysis, the most probable picture to me is laid out below.Read full article... Read full article...