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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Friday, June 19, 2015

Gold and Silver All Eyes on The Half-Year / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Window-dressing or the management of prices for a favourable mark-to-market valuation at year-ends, half-years and quarters has long been a distorting feature in financial markets. And, with bank capital adequacy ratios at stake, not to mention traders' bonuses, it has been an increasing feature. With the onset of June 30th it seems reasonable to expect this factor to be a reason why gold and silver prices have generally failed to reflect escalating systemic risk in the face of Greece's insolvency and a developing bear market in bonds. Indeed, losses from bonds are bound to encourage window-dressing of banks' short positions as an off-set, and they are generally short of gold and silver futures contracts.

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Commodities

Friday, June 19, 2015

Of Silver Shortages and New Cartels / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Question from a fellow silver highwayman.  

“I don’t understand why the major silver producers don’t set their own prices - why let the brokers set the prices. If the producers stop selling forward contracts, this nonsense all stops.”

In other words, set up a cooperative that guarantees a price floor with the agreement that miners never sell production for less. The price is reset instantly. In essence, that’s what the speculators are doing in reverse with paper.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 18, 2015

The Biggest Myth About Investing in Crude Oil Right Now / Commodities / Oil Companies

By: Investment_U

Matthew Carr writes: I’m not often bearish. It’s not really in my nature. And it certainly doesn’t fit in my philosophies of “don’t panic” and “you can always find opportunities (regardless of which way the broad market is moving).”

There are ways to make money in any situation.

That said, in April 2013 I did give a warning about the energy sector. My exact words:

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Commodities

Thursday, June 18, 2015

Russia “Bought Gold” For “Diversification” - Central Bank Governor / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

- Russia “bought gold” for “diversification” – Russian Central Governor Nabiullina
- Russian central bank prefers gold bullion to euros or dollars
-  Russia points out that other countries have a  “bigger share of gold in their reserves”
- “Can’t imagine a situation where bitcoins would be considered a reserve currency”
- On bitcoin – sees “mobility”, “expediency” and “low cost” but may regulate

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Gold Price Ratio Signals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Gary_Tanashian

A brief snapshot of counter-cyclical gold’s macro signals vs. other metals (and broad commodities) that are more positively correlated to economies, using weekly charts…

Each week NFTRH updates many charts of nominal US and global stock markets, commodities, precious metals and currencies over multiple time frames.  But we also cover economic data and indicators, with the first macro chart below (Palladium vs. Gold) still barely holding its economic ‘UP’ signal from January, 2013.  At that time a coming economic up phase did not seem likely, but PALL-Gold and fundamental information gleaned from a personal source in the Semiconductor Equipment sector gave us a good risk vs. reward on that stance.

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Gold Coins "Not Available" in Europe? - Untrue / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

- Armstrong and blogosphere on shortage of gold coins in Europe
- No shortage of gold whatsoever at retail level in Europe
- Gold demand in most of Europe quite mixed despite significant risks
- Germany, Switzerland, Greece seeing strong demand but no shortages
- Alarmist warning that governments to make gold “illegal”
- Poor data and research or disinformation?

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Gold and Silver Price Forecast for the Second Half of 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Peter Krauth writes: Investors considering gold or silver as an investment or hedge need a good handle on the factors driving their prices.

That's where supply, demand, trend, and sentiment data come in.

With global economic and market factors painting no clear picture about the near-term prospects for many investments, many of you might be considering whether it makes sense to add gold or silver to your portfolios.

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

The Dark Side Of The Shale Oil Bust / Commodities / Shale Oil and Gas

By: OilPrice_Com

The fallout of the collapse in oil prices has a lot of side effects apart from the decline of rig counts and oil flows.

Oil production in North Dakota has exploded over the last five years, from negligible levels before 2010 to well over a million barrels per day, making North Dakota the second largest oil producing state in the country.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Gold Versus The Status Quo / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: DeviantInvestor

Gold has been a store of value for 1000s of years.  You can’t purchase gasoline with gold but it has no counter-party risk and is valued world-wide.

In contrast, paper and digital dollars, euros, pounds and yen are debt based fiat currencies backed only by the faith and credit of the governments and central banks which issued them.  Devaluation and higher consumer prices are all but guaranteed.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Gold: Surviving The Last Few Months Of The Bear Market Part III / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Toby_Connor

So I’m starting to see lots of chatter about traders preparing to back up the truck when gold reaches $1000. First off, if you believe like I do, that this was a mostly manufactured bear market by the bullion banks in order to stretch price as low as possible before the next phase of the bull market begins, then there’s no way it’s going to be that easy.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

New Gold Electronic Payments System Protect From “National Financial Or Currency Crisis” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

- Texas creates state gold depository – bringing gold home from New York Fed
- Move to remove gold from Federal Reserve highlights distrust
- Follows repatriation moves by Germany, Netherlands, Austria and others
- Legislation will prevent Federal government from confiscating gold
- Includes provisions that may lead to return to using gold as currency in the U.S.
- New gold electronic payments system protect fromnational financial or currency crisis
- European, UK and Irish governments could learn from prudent monetary move

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

What Is The Stagnant Gold Price Telling Us? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Submissions

Nicholas Kitonyi writes: Crude oil prices have risen by nearly 25% over the last three months, while the price of gold has managed just 2.5% gain during the same period. The two commodities are largely affected by the strength of the US Dollar, and some people might have been deluded to thinking that the drop in the prices of both commodities last year was as a result of a strong dollar.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Gold Price Approaching An Endpoint / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Bob_Loukas

Apart from two mini-peaks at recent Daily Cycle (DC) tops, Gold's current Investor Cycle has traded in a narrow, horizontal range. The Investor Cycle (IC) began with 10 good trading days back in March, but has since moved sideways. If the bulls were back in control of the gold market, they would driven Gold to make much more significant gains during the early favorable IC periods (first 8 weeks). Despite being in the most favorable (early) part of the Investor Cycle, Gold failed to catch the bid necessary to move it higher, and has now entered the IC's normal period of decline. (Note: A Daily Cycle is measured in trading Days. Investor Cycle measured in weeks. See Glossary of Cycle terms)

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Gold HUI Lowest Weekly Close Since 2003 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Briefly: In our opinion, a speculative short position (full) in gold, silver and mining stocks is justified from the risk/reward point of view.

We have previously commented on the mining stocks' underperformance relative to gold and its bearish implications. Last week, however, we saw something even more profound. The HUI Index broke below the 2014 low in terms of the weekly closing prices and it was the lowest weekly close since 2003. Does this major sign signal the beginning of the final major slide in the precious metals sector?

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Commodities

Monday, June 15, 2015

Texas Gives Wall Street Bankers the Gold Finger / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: MoneyMetals

Clint Siegner writes: When Governor Greg Abbott signed House Bill Number 483 in his own hand this past Friday, Texas gave Wall Street a big gold “finger” and will soon bring $1 billion in gold bars back to the Lone Star State.

The University of Texas made headlines in 2010 by adding more than $500 million in gold to their endowment. The decision to plough half a billion dollars into gold was only the first chapter of the story. Perhaps the bigger news was the choice not to simply buy shares in a gold ETF or gold futures contracts. Custodians decided to buy physical bars instead – signaling a distinct lack of faith in paper gold.

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Commodities

Monday, June 15, 2015

Valuable Clues from the Oil Stocks to Crude Oil Price Ratio / Commodities / Oil Companies

By: Nadia_Simmons

In our essay on oil stocks from June 9, we focused on the connection between the XOI and the general stock market to find out what impact the S&P500 index could have on the oil stock index’s future moves. Back then, we also wrote about the relationship between the oil stocks and crude oil:

(...) The beginning of May brought a new 2015 high of $62.58 in crude oil, but we didn’t see a fresh high in case of oil stocks. In the following weeks, crude oil has been trading in a narrow range and erased less than 38.2% of earlier rally. What happened at the same time with the XOI? The index declined sharply and approached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement in the recent days, showing its weakness in relation to light crude.

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Commodities

Monday, June 15, 2015

Marc Faber Warns Financial System “Will Implode” - "Hold Precious Metals" / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

- “Whole Financial System Will One Day Implode” – Marc Faber
- “I feel like I’m on the Titanic …”
- Arguing over the best assets akin to re-arranging deck chairs on Titanic
- Investors need escape plan and “safety boat”
- Forget Fed rate hike, Fed QE 4 is coming
- Diversify and hold “commodities, precious metals”

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Commodities

Monday, June 15, 2015

Ain't No Sunshine When it’s Gone / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

At one time I owned shares of the Vanguard 500 index fund. It was highly recommended at the time as the simple no-brainer. Just put your money there, go back to work and don’t think about it. I was marginally satisfied, though not at peace. And that was a long time ago, when silver was like gold; a relic no one cared about or needed.

Recently I got another brush with Vanguard when uncle enthusiastically insisted read John Bogle’s “The Little Book of Common Sense Investing: The Only Way to Guarantee Your Fair Share of Stock Market Returns”.

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Commodities

Monday, June 15, 2015

Gold Stocks Grueling Bear Market End is Nigh? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Rambus_Chartology

This report will probably be one of the most important posts I’ve made in quite some time. It will require 3 parts to fully present this scenario. I’m going to try and lay out a game plan on how this possible last impulse move down may play out in time and price. One thing I can guarantee you is that there will be no bell going off at the bottom when it finally materializes. The volatility will most likely be very extreme with huge swings back and fourth as the last of the bears sell out to the new bulls. How long that process will play out is anyone’s guess. It may take several months or longer until we see some type of reversal pattern form.

Normally after a hard move down the first bounce off of initial support will be the strongest. It’s like dropping a super ball, the first bounce will be the highest with the subsequent bounces losing steam until it finally comes to rest. These bounces will produce some type of reversal pattern that we should be able to recognize which most likely will be a double bottom or inverse H&S bottom.

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Commodities

Sunday, June 14, 2015

Is Natural Gas A Good Investment Opportunity? / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: AnyOption

Anyoption writes: When it comes to investment options, everyone has their own opinion with regard to just about any option. However, there are few options in the industry that are as heavily debated as natural gas. Those who think it's a great opportunity point to the low cost, high efficiency and slow growth in comparison to crude oil as a reason that steep inclines are just around the corner. On the other hand, those that are bearish on the commodity argue that prices will be kept low, and most likely decline as the result of the massive amounts of natural gas that are available and being produced. So, which side is right? Well, both of them to an extent. Here's how I see it...

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