Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, October 04, 2013
Government Shutdown, Debt Ceiling and Other Bullish Factors for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
The partial government shutdown that began this week is not going to have a quick resolution. Both sides of the political aisle seem to be entrenched and unwilling to negotiate. It is political theater to be sure, but there are real world consequences and investment opportunities at hand.
The cost of the government shutdown is estimated at roughly $300 million per day, based on the lost wages of some 800,000 government workers. While the initial reaction of investors was to send stock prices higher, the odds of a major shock to the economy or full-blown correction increase with each day the government remains shutdown.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 03, 2013
Volatile Times Ahead for Silver Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
On Wednesday, silver gained almost 2.7% and reached $22 as a weak dollar boosted commodities priced in the greenback. The US currency was under selling pressure as a U.S. government shutdown entered a second day with no end in sight. The white metal was supported by weak U.S. economic data, which raised hopes the Federal Reserve would stick to its commodity-friendly stimulus for longer.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 03, 2013
Gold Markets Are Not Efficient, Don't Reflect Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
Hedging
One of the biggest problems facing a miner, a refiner, a jewelry maker and anyone forced to hold gold for a period of time, when his business is not speculating on the gold price, is avoiding the price risk inherent in owning gold for such a time. Just the act of holding it for that time is a speculation. So what can these risk-averse gold holders do to get rid of the risk? The answer is that they hedge their gold.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 03, 2013
Rising Gold and Silver Price Volatility as US Shutdown Cancels Non-Farm Friday / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
PRECIOUS METALS fell back Thursday morning in London, with gold reversing $20 of yesterday's near-$50 rally to trade 2.6% lower for the week so far.
The price of silver dropped almost 50c from Wednesday's peak, but held only 1.1% beneath last week's finish at $21.57.
World stock markets meantime ticked lower, as did major government bonds and commodity prices.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 03, 2013
Currency Strength and Central Bank's Activity - Got Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
The crucial story for gold investors is not the pure inflation rate of the dollar, but something much deeper. When you focus on gold, you should sharpen the focus of your lens on the dollar system. As history confirms, gold can both increase and decrease under inflationary circumstances. It is also the case when considering the opposite scenario, which is deflation. It all depends on how well the dollar system is performing (how well is both dollar as a currency and dollar understood as dollar denominated assets; bonds, stocks, derivatives, credits etc.).
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 03, 2013
Gold Gut Check 2013 - Is the Secular Bull Market Still on Course? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
This issue we team up with the charting research services, Macrotrends.net and Thechartstore.com, to bring you a grouping of highly illuminating charts on the gold and silver markets. Though we are a full five years from the genesis of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, its aftershocks still influence (in fact, dominate) economic policy as well as activity in the financial markets, including gold. Every once in a awhile, it pays to revisit the fundamental drivers of gold demand -- particularly investment demand -- in order to determine whether or not the secular bull market is still on course. If nothing else, it helps to clear the synapses of excessive media wash and re-establish why gold remains vitally important to the contemporary investment portfolio. For some, these charts will serve as an affirmation; for others a revelation -- a golden gut check of sorts. As you are about to see, the price of gold may have changed over the past year, but the fundamental monetary forces driving it have not.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 03, 2013
Expect Gold Price to Soar on Good Economic News / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
The standard wisdom on gold is that it does well in times of economic bad news such as in the 1970s, a period of stagflation and recessions, when the yellow metal rose from $35/oz to peak at $850/oz in 1980. But this time, Don Coxe, a portfolio adviser to BMO Asset Management, believes, things are different. In this interview with The Gold Report, Coxe explains why gold will rise when the economy improves.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 02, 2013
Gold Rallies, But Pullback to $1050 Needed to Clear Longs / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
WEDNESDAY morning in London saw gold recover half of yesterday's $50 plunge per ounce, rising back above $1300 as world stock markets slipped and the US government shutdown spread to new departments.
Commodities also recovered, and government bonds extended their gains, pushing US interest rates down to 2.62% on 10-year debt.
Wednesday, October 02, 2013
On the Road to Armageddon, Investors Taking Shelter in Energy Resources / Commodities / Energy Resources
An economic recovery that isn't one. A civil war that isn't one. Cheap oil that is no more. According to Bob Moriarty, resources remain one of the few absolutes in the world. In this The Energy Report interview, Bob explains why he's sticking to resources when many investors are turning to the mainstream markets, and shares long-term opportunities for shale oil in New Zealand and coal bed methane in Indonesia.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 02, 2013
Greenland Is the Final Frontier for Lower-Cost Mining / Commodities / Metals & Mining
Industrial minerals like copper and nickel are essential to global economic expansion. But everywhere you look, grades are getting lower, and costs are getting much, much higher. Is there a way out? Rick Mills says mining companies need to look to Greenland. In this interview with The Metals Report, the owner and host of Ahead of the Herd.com lauds the world's largest island for its vast resources, its one-stop regulatory system and its year-round access to ocean transportation.
The Metals Report: You never really believed that there was anything resembling an economic recovery in the United States, correct?
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 02, 2013
Ground Control to Major Tom: Gold Reserves Are in Jeopardy / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013
When you hear about the "gold reserves" a mining company has in the ground, the natural assumption would be that they're talking about a fixed number of ounces. After all, gold doesn't decay, and neither does it grow legs and move someplace else.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 01, 2013
COMEX Gold Registered Inventories - JP Morgan Moves the Shells Again / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
With regard to metals inventories, the eligible category includes any bullion of a suitable format that is held in one of the COMEX authorized warehouses, which are individually managed by one of the bullion banks.
The second category of metal is called registered, or dealer, bullion inventory. This is bullion of a suitable format that is held in one of the COMEX authorized warehouses, AND has been registered as deliverable into the market by its owner.
Monday, September 30, 2013
How to Profit From China's Crude Oil Crisis / Commodities / Crude Oil
cpittman writes: America is the strongest nation on Earth, but we depend on foreign energy suppliers. In fact, we import more oil than any other country. This is our crucial weakness as a superpower.
Now, that is changing big-time in ways that are good for America and bad for China. And this change offers you extraordinary investment opportunities.
Monday, September 30, 2013
Expect Gold Price to Soar on Good Economic News / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
The standard wisdom on gold is that it does well in times of economic bad news such as in the 1970s, a period of stagflation and recessions, when the yellow metal rose from $35/oz to peak at $850/oz in 1980. But this time, Don Coxe, a portfolio adviser to the BMO Asset Management, believes things are different. In this interview with The Gold Report, Coxe explains why gold will rise when the economy improves.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 30, 2013
Is Crude Oil a Step Behind or Ahead of the Oil Index? / Commodities / Crude Oil
Tensions in the Middle East have always had an impact on everyday life around the world through their effect on the price of oil. During the last month we saw this impact very clearly. At the beginning of September, the price of light crude dropped as fears of U.S. military action against Syria faded. In the following days, crude oil declined as Libya's production recovered to nearly 40% of pre-war capacity. Higher crude oil output in Iraq was an additional bearish factor, which pushed the price lower. In the previous week, investors watched closely all the US-Iran news. On Friday, the price of oil fell as tensions eased between the United States and Iran after the Obama-Rouhani talks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 30, 2013
Gold and Silver Inflection Point / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
In this Weekend Report I would like to look at the Chartology of the precious metals complex as this is either a consolation phase or as some think a bottoming formation is building out that will lead to the next bull market. In order to grasp what is really going on we need to look at all the possibilities and try to gain some perspective on which course of action the precious metals complex is likely to move in the short to intermediate time frame up or down.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 29, 2013
Silver Price Pushing On A String / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
Little in the way of news has transpired in the past week that could have an impact on the silver market. The main stage has been set for some time, regarding all the known factors affecting silver, to date. There is no need to review any of them, at this point.
What can be noted is that the CFTC has reached the conclusion that the “alleged” manipulation by JPMorgan in the silver market, well documented and presented to the CFTC by Andrew Macguire, was much ado about nothing.. Just like lackey Eric Holder, chief law [un]enforcement official a the Dept of [no]Justice, has not been able to uncover any wrongdoing by Wall Street over the past 5 years, the CFTC ran into the same “bad luck” during its two-year investigation.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 28, 2013
Gold and Silver Now Move Into the October Delivery Month / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
There was no activity in or out of the COMEX warehouses yesterday, with only a small adjustment at Brinks.
Here is an interview I did with Lars Schall yesterday. You may read at it here.
Lars is a very personable and intelligent fellow, and did a good job of drawing out some comments, and coaxing me to put some things forward more so than I am often wont to do. I am always grateful for the good work that he does.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 28, 2013
Gold And Silver Central Bank Death Dance / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
If “they” can get you to ask the wrong questions[s], “they” do not have to worry about giving the right answer[s].
The question most have been asking is, why aren’t the prices of gold and silver reflecting the unprecedented huge demand and the almost depleted holdings of the exchanges and central banks? Article after article has been retelling the stories of long lines to buy silver and gold, all over the world, Russia and China buying everything available for sale from the gutless Western central bankers, failure to deliver physical gold by banks to customers, failure to deliver contract gold on the COMEX, rolling it forward and/or settling for cash for those who take it.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 28, 2013
Gold and Silver Bottoming Process / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
In our last editorial we pointed out how the gold stocks had veered off the recovery course. They fell well below the recovery template and fell below their 50-day moving averages. Furthermore, the positive “non-taper” news turned out to be the mother of all bull traps for traders. The market soared on presumably an epic amount of short covering. Yet that only served to be a selling opportunity for traders. That sequence of events only strengthened our view that the sector continues to be headed for a retest which could serve as the mother of all buying opportunities.
Read full article... Read full article...