Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Gold Matter In “a banquet of consequences” Deficits / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Michael_J_Kosares

DEFICITS MATTER! Democrat Franklin Delano Roosevelt was the first to publicly declare that deficits did not matter since, he reasoned, we owe the money to ourselves. Dick Cheney, who should know better, made the same claim in behalf of Republican deficits. Deficit denial has never held water simply because holders of government paper – foreign or domestic — intend to be repaid and with interest. It’s that part about creditors demanding interest that blows a hole in the “deficits-do-not-matter” argument.

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Commodities 2013 Halftime Report: A Time to Mine for Opportunity? / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Frank_Holmes

It was a challenging first half of the year for most commodities, with only two resources we track on our Periodic Table of Commodities Returns rising in value. Natural gas and oil rose 6.5 percent and 5 percent, respectively, while silver lost a third of its value and gold lost a quarter of its price from the beginning of the year.

At first glance, the correction seems to support naysayers who believe the supercycle in commodities has ended, such as Credit Suisse analysts, who had declared that the “era is over,” in its digital magazine, The Financialist.

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Gold - What If? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: John_Mauldin

By Grant Williams: A few weeks ago, I put a chart with which I am acutely familiar up on my Bloomberg. It is a chart I have studied every single day for over a decade, so by now I know pretty much every dip, every rally, and every sideways channel that makes up this particular pattern.

I remember where I was when the big moves took place, and I recall with great clarity my varying degrees of comprehension and incredulity over every meaningful change in direction.

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Timing the Gold Price Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Casey_Research

By Louis James, Chief Metals & Mining Investment Strategist

An interesting thing about the uptick in gold prices over the last couple days is the number of people asking me if I think gold has bottomed. This is somewhat amusing, since we all know that no one can time a market, and the questions are coming from my peers—professionals who should know better.

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Gold and Silver Gain as Cyprus Back-Tracks on Selling Reserves / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Adrian_Ash

PRECIOUS METAL prices rose Tuesday morning in London, after the finance minister of Cyprus said selling some of the debt-laden Mediterranean island's gold reserves was "only an option" for raising cash.

"The possibility of selling gold is known, but only as an option," Harris Georgiades told journalists in Nicosia.

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Petrodollar Recycling And The Gold Switch / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Andrew_McKillop

PRAVDA WILL SAY ITS THE COLLAPSE OF CAPITALISM
President Nixon's head of the Federal Reserve, Arthur Burns vigorously opposed the Nixon plan to “close the gold window”, decided at Camp David through 13-15 August 1971 because Burns saw it as admitting defeat in the struggle against inflation. He said the policy mix including a “free float for the dollar” would not stimulate jobs, or prevent wage demands. The dollar would be weakened further driving up inflation - to the delight of the Soviets.“What the boys around the White House fail to see,” Burns scribbled in his diary, “is that the country now faces an entirely new problem—sizable inflation in the midst of recession.”  He was overruled by Nixon.

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Signs That the Silver Price Has Bottomed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Jason_Hamlin

I have not written a public article in several months. This is mainly because I have been waiting for a buying opportunity to develop in precious metals. As a fairly aggressive investor with a high risk tolerance, I took a stab when silver originally dropped to technical support around $27. I have a few small cuts from attempting to catch the proverbial falling knife, but I was quick to release and walked away relatively unscathed.

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Even Oil Executives Know Crude Oil Prices are Too High! / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

WTI is Tracking S&P 500 last Month

It is obvious that the oil market is out of touch with the fundamentals of a sluggish global macro-economic picture, and surging domestic and international oil production right now. The problem is that Oil, and especially WTI which is being tied to the S&P 500 bullishness, (i.e., stock market at all-time highs) is completely manipulated by hedge funds and investment banks and is harmful to the economy, businesses and consumers.

Monday, July 15, 2013

Continuous Commodity Index Points to Rally in Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Chris_Vermeulen

During the recent weeks we have seen commodities especially precious metals continue to drop in value. Market participant sentiment has become more bearish on commodities and couple that with a rising dollar it’s no wonder why we continue to see commodities as a whole fall in value.

Money has been flowing out of bonds at record levels this summer telling us most of market participants are feeling bullish on the stock market. This shift in sentiment of the masses are typical as they move their money from the risk on safer assets (bonds & commodities) and rotate into risk-on assets like stocks. While this is a bearish (contrarian sign) stocks could easily continue to rally for an extended period of time and possibly several more months before they actually top out.

Monday, July 15, 2013

Why is Gold & Silver, the Precious Metals Complex Falling ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Rambus_Chartology

A subscriber asked me this week why the precious metals complex has been falling and if the charts could show the reason why. From the Chartology perspective it’s really a no brainier why this sector has fallen on hard times.

Many of you may recall the bull market that occurred, in the stock markets, back in the 1990′s which was a traders dream come true. During that time gold and the precious metals stocks were not even on my radar screen as I was too busy trading the tech stocks to even consider the precious metals sector. I couldn’t tell you the price of gold or what a junior miner was. All I knew was that the action was in the tech stocks and that is all that mattered to me at the time. I know a lot of you folks were trading the precious metals stocks in the 90′s and by looking at a long term chart for gold or the XAU, which has the most history, those were some lean years to say the least.

Monday, July 15, 2013

Cash For Gold ‘Giveaway’ As 'Cash Strapped' Europeans Sell Jewellery Amid Asian ‘Gold Rush’ / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: GoldCore

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,281.25, EUR 983.08 and GBP 850.65 per ounce.
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,275.00, EUR 976.79 and GBP 842.70 per ounce.

Gold fell $0.90 or 0.07% on Friday and closed at $1,284.40/oz. Silver fell $0.29 or 1.44% and closed at $19.89.

Monday, July 15, 2013

China's Surging Demand Supporting Gold as Retail Sales Defy GDP Slowdown / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Adrian_Ash

LONDON prices for physical gold held little changed Monday morning, edging lower from the best weekly finish in three as new data showed China's economic growth slowing but retail sales rising sharply.
 
Asian and European stock markets ticked higher, but commodity prices fell back, with crude oil dropping 0.7%.
 
A rise in the US Dollar saw gold for Euro and UK investors briefly touch three- and four-week highs respectively.

Monday, July 15, 2013

The Psychology of Investing in Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Submissions

Simon Popple writes: Like all things in life, when investing having a high IQ is largely beneficial. It helps you to source the right information, analyse it and “know what to do”. Quite simple. But there’s a big difference between “knowing it right” and “doing it right.”

Monday, July 15, 2013

Gold versus the money supply / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Alasdair_Macleod

In a recent article I introduced the concept of allowing for the increased quantity of aboveground gold and the expansion of the quantity of dollar currency over time when trying to value gold. The purpose of this article is to explain why such an obvious adjustment is rarely contemplated and why it should be applied.

The reason no one adjusts the dollar quantity is we want to think of the dollar as having a constant value when we buy assets or goods. We describe prices of goods as rising or falling, and never the currency falling or rising. When we construct an index of house prices or stocks we do not take into account the debasement of the currency.

Monday, July 15, 2013

Gold Price Could Turn Bearish This Week / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: ForexPros

Gold recovered nicely over the last two weeks; this was expected on account of the completed five wave decline in black wave 3. If our count is correct, then the current pull-back is corrective wave 4, part of a larger incomplete decline in wave 5) of C. Note that now we can already count three legs up from the lows, which means that market could turn bearish very soon, ideally from around the 1300-1310 resistance area. However, only price can confirm a downtrend, which means a minor impulse down back to 1200. If this occurs, we will look for a decline in the 5th wave towards 1100 level or even lower. For now, the critical region stands at 1336 as wave 4 cannot trade into a wave one territory.

Monday, July 15, 2013

Gold Price Dead Cat Bounce – Fade The Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Bob_Kirtley

Gold prices have enjoyed a welcome bounce from $1200 to $1280 recently, which has some perma-bulls bringing out the famous “this is the bottom” LP yet again, a record which has been played so many times this year it must be getting close to wearing out. Whilst this minor bounce in gold is to be expected with Bernanke cooling the markets aggressive tapering expectations, a major rally is not sustainable since the Fed is not embarking on any new quantitative easing in the foreseeable future.

Monday, July 15, 2013

Is the Inflationary Phase Finally Here? / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Toby_Connor

Last year I correctly spotted the three year cycle low in the CRB. I must admit the retest of that bottom has taken much longer and been far deeper than I thought it would be. However, I think the retest is over. It looks like the CRB has put in its final yearly cycle low for 2013, and that low has held above the 2012 trough.

As I have noted in the chart below, we did see a positive divergence at this year's bottom as the dollar made a marginal new high but commodities failed to confirm that new high by breaking their 2012 three year cycle low.

Sunday, July 14, 2013

Gold Prices Search for That Illusive Ignition / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Bob_Kirtley

Let me start by stating that I am a gold and silver bull and that the precious metals sector has been very good to me. However, any stock or commodity doesn’t not go up or down in a straight uninterrupted line. There are bear phases in a bull market just as there are bullish rallies in a bear market. Gold prices are in a long term bull market despite being in a bear phase at the moment. With that being our starting point then being short rather than long in the near term, makes sense to me.

Saturday, July 13, 2013

Gold And Silver – Knowledge Is Not Of Value. Using It Is / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Michael_Noonan

Do markets send messages? Absolutely, and they are there for anyone and everyone to see as they develop. Most people like to read news about increased demand for gold and silver, record purchases for silver eagles, etc, etc, etc. The headlines over the past several months have teemed with such information, raising expectations, but not raising the price either of gold or silver.

More recently, there is “news” about market bottoms, eminent turnarounds, a renewal of where gold and silver can reach, [once the central bankers deplete their gold stocks; once the COMEX fails, and more etcs]. Seems like not as many are paying attention to the most reliable and obvious source of all, the market price itself.

Saturday, July 13, 2013

Abelications of Abenomics on Uranium and Nuclear Power / Commodities / Nuclear Power

By: Richard_Mills

There's a three year downward trend in Chinese imports underway. The chart below, from Nomura Global Economics, shows the trend quite clearly.

China's exports and imports declined again in June. Exports fell 3.1 percent yoy - the most since the global financial crisis in 2008 - while imports dropped 0.7 percent. The poor June report follows a May collapse in export gains - fake invoices had inflated data for the first four months of the year, the bogus data enabled exporters to evade currency controls and bring extra money into the country. Trade growth might come in below the government's target of eight percent for the year.