Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Thursday, August 04, 2011
Stocks Bear, FED about to Make the Mistake of the Decade? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Just as I expected, when the market failed to rally on the debt ceiling resolution, panic set in. As I have been telling people the stock market is not dropping because politicians are debating whether or not to spend more money. They have a long record of raising the debt ceiling whenever it threatened to interfere with their spending spree. So the resolution to the debt ceiling was never in question. We knew from day one that Washington would add another trillion or so to the deficit without any real attempt to cut spending. The market has been in trouble since May because it is starting to price in the next recession.
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Thursday, August 04, 2011
What Current Stock Market Decline Has in Common With March’s Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Purely from an objective price perspective, Wednesday morning's plunge in the S&P 500 to new reaction lows at 1230.25 in its emini contract pressed the index beneath the lower Bollinger Band (BBnd) line by 2%. This approximates a similar negative price-to-BBnd relationship seen at the March 16-17 lows.
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Thursday, August 04, 2011
Debt Issues Put a Ceiling on Stocks and a Floor Under Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
When politicians, monetary authorities, and other talking-heads refer to dire consequences for "the economy" unless XYZ legislation is passed, I can't help but think that what they are really talking about are dire consequences for stock prices.
Although their last dance-on-the-ceiling failed in this regard, bailing out an insolvent financial system, QE1, QE2, and perhaps some stealth form of QE3, are all clear efforts to keep stock prices artificially inflated.
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Thursday, August 04, 2011
Stock Market and Silver Technical Outlook / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
The following article is an update on the current technical position of the marketplace as I see it. Obviously the price action this week has been ugly as the situation in Europe has become front and center in the minds of traders and market prognosticators. The information below is an adaptation of what members of my service at OptionsTradingSignals.com received early today.
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Thursday, August 04, 2011
The Food Crisis War Endgame / Stock-Markets / Food Crisis
Nothing gives better proof of a sure and certain, rapidly growing global food shortage than the simplest look at how commodity markets have been responding to the US debt crisis, the coming devaluation of the US dollar, and the merited exposure of Barack Obama as a loser. Stripping away the short covering, the dollar crisis, inflation fear and all the rest, we find that food prices are resisting a lot better than oil prices, to the rising likelihood of recession in the western world, and maybe also global economic recession.
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Thursday, August 04, 2011
Marc Faber: China Bubble Crash Poses a Huge Global Risk / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Marc Faber was interviewed on CNBC yesterday. He had some interesting thoughts on China, geopolitical trends, gold, equities, bonds and cash. See below for the video and summary.
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Thursday, August 04, 2011
Stock Market Consolidation or Topping Pattern? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Yesterday was an ugly today. This morning S&P 500 futures are up before the opening bell as traders bet on a rebound, but there is no way to deny that yesterday was a troubling day when it comes to the financial markets.
Things look even worse in the European markets where Germany and Italy broke down to new lows for the summer. Israel also dumped hard and so did Japan. Asian markets are acting the strongest for now though.
Wednesday, August 03, 2011
Helicopter Ben Prepares Fed's Next Flyover, Don't Let this Clown Steal Your Money / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2011
Martin Hutchinson writes: The circus known as the debt-ceiling debate may have left town - at least for the time being - but there's still one sad clown left standing squarely in the center of the ring.
I'm talking about U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke - otherwise known as "Helicopter Ben."
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Wednesday, August 03, 2011
Stock Market Potential Wave Counts / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
After reviewing the charts this evening we eliminated one of the potential counts we had posted on the DOW charts: a diagonal Primary wave V. Since the market is already in a downtrend, failing to make a new SPX/DOW high, this count is no longer valid.
Another potential count that now has a low probability is the subdividing Primary wave III count, which was also posted on the DOW charts. As a result of these changes we are now able to place more specific probablities on the remaining counts.
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Tuesday, August 02, 2011
Toothless Debt Deal Won’t Stop a U.S. Credit-Rating Downgrade / Stock-Markets / US Debt
Jason Simpkins writes: It's often said that the sign of a good compromise is that both parties walk away dissatisfied - but that's not necessarily true of the debt deal Congress is close to passing.
To be sure, both parties are dissatisfied with the outcome of this contentious battle. Progressive Democrats are disappointed that planned cuts to government spending won't be augmented with tax increases, while fiscally conservative Republicans are angry that the cuts to spending haven't gone far enough.
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Tuesday, August 02, 2011
For Rational Investors, Stock Market Uncertainty Equals Profits / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Martin Hutchinson writes: There's no question that the Washington fiasco, more commonly referred to as the debt-ceiling crisis, has injected a huge amount of uncertainty to financial markets.
That's bad news for the U.S. economy - which Friday's lousy second-quarter gross-domestic-product (GDP) report demonstrates was already suffering from bad fiscal policy, bad monetary policy and a gross excess of new regulations. This deal didn't really solve any long-term problems, won't head off a federal credit-rating downgrade and all in all only adds to the market uncertainty.
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Tuesday, August 02, 2011
Stock Market Still Nowhere..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
After all that's gone on the market is holding where it has to hold. We got the news everyone wanted over the weekend. The two sides agreed upon a very unhappy package that, basically, both sides said it wasn't what they wanted, but it was the best they could do. The Dow futures shot up 200 points last night. The S&P 500 was up 23 and the Nasdaq 36. Things were looking super for the bulls. Even though the package was awful, the market was celebrating the deal. Default averted for the time being. The futures held the majority of its gains overnight, even though European stock markets were struggling for green. The futures were up on the Dow roughly 150 points at 8am. Then about 140 points at the open. That was pretty much it. They started to move down gradually as the first thirty minutes went by. Then something far more important than the debt ceiling package hit at 10am.
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Tuesday, August 02, 2011
Stock Market POMO Activity, A Ferret In Our Shorts / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Wouldn’t it be nice for the Dow Jones Industrial Average to act sane for a day or two? Wouldn’t it be nice for it to just open in the morning and not move more than ten or twelve points in either direction? Of course, that would require an actual ‘market’ where traders and investors decide the minute-to-minute valuation of stocks. Instead, the current indexes can routinely plummet and ascend hundreds of points in either direction seemingly for no reason at all. It’s like someone put a ferret in our shorts and shot him up with crystal meth. Who would do such a thing?
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Monday, August 01, 2011
Stock Market Correction Remains Incomplete / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Very Long-term trend - The continuing strength in the indices is causing me to question whether we are in a secular bear market or two consecutive, cyclical bull/bear cycles. In any case, the very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014-16 (no change).
Long-term trend - In March 2009, the SPX began a move which evolved into a bull market. Cycles point to a continuation of this trend for several more weeks (no change).
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Monday, August 01, 2011
Stock Market Panic Selling Provides Major Buying Opportunity! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Over the past seven trading sessions we have seen stocks plummet in price because of the debt issues in the United States. I think a lot of individuals including myself thought that a bill would have been passed last week and with a plan underway money would flow back into stocks for a relief bounce at minimum. Instead, nothing was passed and that lead to strong selling into Friday’s close.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 31, 2011
Interbank Credit Markets Show Low Systemic Risk / Stock-Markets / US Interest Rates
Tape action--market responsiveness to news, earnings and technical events--has been largely bullish as well. Psychology appears to be sufficiently negative to support a bottom as well. While doom and gloom are not at apocalyptic levels, there is a pervasive sense that after six months of grind and whipsaw, traders are tired and at a loss and are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right cue. All in all, this is the stuff of which major bottoms are made. BullBear Traders are looking to build long positions as the market passes through a bottoming process soon, probably coinciding with the announcements of the downgrade of US sovereign debt and a DC debt deal. We are also keeping our eyes open to the possibility of a significant bearish market break.
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Sunday, July 31, 2011
Stock Market Crazy Week, Here We Go Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Another crazy week, and although we have not gone anywhere, as we are still stuck in the same range we have been for weeks.
However the market did put in a in a bull trap that we were suspicious off, I posted this to members last week in my weekend report.
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Sunday, July 31, 2011
Stock Markets Fall on Trouble in Monetary Paradise / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Equities declined throughout the week right from the gap down open on monday into the close on friday. In the end US equities experienced the worse weekly loss since the Primary wave II bottom in July 2010. The monthly economic reports were mostly negative, outpacing positive reports by 2:1. On the positive side: Case-Shiller, consumer confidence, and the WLEI all improved, while weekly jobless claims dropped.
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Sunday, July 31, 2011
Stock Market No Faith....Economy Faltering Again... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
There is much to discuss, but let's start with the news that's on everyone's minds. We all know those two annoying words by now. Debt ceiling. Yes, the debt ceiling and its daily annoyance to everything that is the stock market. Slowly, but surely, it became part of our daily lives. In our minds we began to wonder about whether it would be taken care of by our leaders. Then the days moved on, and the stock market began to take on a larger role with respects to wondering whether things would get taken care of by our leaders. The closer we got to August second the more annoyed the market seemed to get with what was taking place. It began to send a strong message last Friday. Then all week the market fell.
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Saturday, July 30, 2011
Essentials for Investor Wealth Acquisition Acceleration / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
“The U.S. Federal Reserve gave out $16.1 trillion in emergency loans to U.S. and foreign financial institutions between Dec. 1, 2007 and July 21, 2010, according to figures produced by the government's first-ever audit of the central bank.
Last year, the gross domestic product of the entire U.S. economy was $14.5 trillion.
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