Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, July 29, 2011
Is Congress Fiddling While Rome Burns? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
I'm starting to think this is ironic ...
The country is in debt and the Government's revenue cannot cover the current debt. In other words, the cash outflow is greater than the cash inflows, so we have a Liquidity Contraction situation.
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Friday, July 29, 2011
Possible Stock Market Scenario For Meeting U.S. August 2nd Debt Ceiling Deadline / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The deadline for some type of debt-ceiling deal is now only five calendar days away (three trading days). The odds of no agreement of any kind coming together remain relatively remote. The political stakes for all players involved, including both parties and the President, are too high.
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Friday, July 29, 2011
U.S. Debt Downgrade Drama and the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
I was watching Speaker of the House John Boehner speak today on Bloomberg TV (yes I have the TV on while I trade but the sound is off until I see something that is newsworthy). Speaker Boehner made the same old pitch about how the Republicans have out plans on the table and the Democrats have done nothing. I watched as his entourage climbed over each other to say something to the media and it hit me hard. This is July 28, 2011. In one year we will be in full reelection mode. How much money would one of these congressmen have to raise to get some prime time face time? I would guess it would be quite a bit.
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Friday, July 29, 2011
Stock Market Negatives Building / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
SHORT TERM: market opens flat, rallies, then drops, DOW -62
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower. Europe opened lower but closed mixed. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims dipped below 400K: 398K vs 418K. The market opened slightly lower at SPX 1304, after closing at 1305 yesterday. After bouncing around in the first few minutes the market started to rally. At 10:00 Pending home sales were reported lower but still positive: +2.4% vs +8.2%. The rally continued until about noon when the SPX hit 1316, then it started to pullback. Around 1:00 the FED released the following: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20110728a.htm. The pullback continued right into the close when the SPX hit 1299 and ended the day at 1301.
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Thursday, July 28, 2011
Stock Market Panic Selling, What Does It Mean? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
It was an exciting trading session Wednesday to say the least… With all the uncertainty floating around it is causing the stock market to be more volatile than normal. It seems like every other day there is some big headline news causing either strong buying of stocks or strong selling to take place. It’s this type of price action which spooks the average investor causing them to panic out of positions at key support areas just before a continued move higher.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Missing the August 2nd U.S. Debt Ceiling Deadline Still Not Likely / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
After the market closed on July 27, we reviewed the latest news from Washington looking for information that can help us over the next six calendar days. Our current interpretation is that a deal will get done in some shape, form, or fashion.
A Bloomberg story noted that the credit markets are not overly concerned about the political banter in our nation’s capital:
Read full article... Read full article...Banks in the U.S. are scrutinizing credit-market movements as they look for distress ahead of next week’s deadline to raise the U.S. debt ceiling. So far, those metrics aren’t showing signs of panic.
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Credit Market Ominous Similarities to 2007, Short Stock Indices / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Dramatic title I realize but look at the charts below and ask yourself if this is purely coincidence or something more telling. Regulars to this site have read posts comparing the current market to that of late 2007. From equities to credit markets to volatility and more the similarities across asset classes has been rather striking.
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Thursday, July 28, 2011
US Debt Downgrade Grows Closer Than Ever / Stock-Markets / US Debt
Each day that passes without a deal to prevent a U.S. debt default brings the United States closer to a financial calamity that would be more severe than the failure of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
Dueling speeches from U.S. President Barack Obama and Speaker of the House John Boehner, R-OH, Monday night did nothing to resolve the impasse between Republicans and Democrats over how to reduce budget deficits and raise the debt ceiling past the $14.3 trillion limit by Aug. 2.
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Stock Market Sends A Loud Message For All To Hear..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The market is telling the world to listen up carefully. Don't be foolish. Get your act together. Work together. Lose your egos. Do what's right for the American people, or the market will tell you just how wrong you got things. The Democrats and the Republicans need to find a way to work together now, and stop the daring behavior. Stop waiting for the other side to blink, so you can say you won. It's not about you. It's about the people you represent, although that's clearly not how they're thinking at the moment. The market is digesting a lot of bad news from today alone on the economic front let alone having to deal with what's going on with our government and their inability to do what's right for everyone.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Stock Market, Is it Time to be Concerned? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Last week, we posted an analysis of the NYSE's daily New Highs. Let's continue that exploration from a different angle so we can see the long term and short term picture of the story it is trying to tell.
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Wednesday, July 27, 2011
How U.S. Debt Downgrade WIll Impact Stock and Bond Market Prices? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Since the United States has carried a AAA debt rating since 1917, the term unprecedented has been properly applied to the possibility of a downgrade to AA. The uncertainty associated with a debt downgrade/short-term default was captured by the Wall Street Journal on July 25:
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Wednesday, July 27, 2011
The Worst Case Scenario: Seven Potential Consequences of a U.S. Debt Default / Stock-Markets / US Debt
David Zeiler writes: Each day that passes without a deal to prevent a U.S. debt default brings the United States closer to a financial calamity that would be more severe than the failure of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
Dueling speeches from U.S. President Barack Obama and Speaker of the House John Boehner, R-OH, Monday night did nothing to resolve the impasse between Republicans and Democrats over how to reduce budget deficits and raise the debt ceiling past the $14.3 trillion limit by Aug. 2.
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Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Next Step: A Home Cancer Test Kit? / Stock-Markets / Healthcare Sector
Doug Hornig, Casey Extraordinary Technology writes: With cancer, early detection equals a greater likelihood that treatment will have a positive outcome.
Physicians have known this for a long time, and the statistics back them up. Survival rates for those afflicted with many types of cancer have risen dramatically in the past few decades. And one of the primary reasons is that we are diagnosing cancer earlier and with much greater accuracy.
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Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Stock Market Earnings Cycle Converging On The Horizon, Likely Down 2011, 2012 / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
This week’s Outside the Box is with an old friend to long-time readers, Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research. Ed is usually on the bullish side, but his research of late points to a few warning signs that say some cycle convergences may be pointing to problems. And that coincides with my macro concerns. As usual, lots of charts and data, but easy to read and understand. And, for those with stock market investments, very thought-provoking and timely.
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Monday, July 25, 2011
Making Sense Out of Stock Market Trading Environment / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
It is time for the market to speak clearly. I can make a case for many scenarios because not all the markets are in agreement. Let's review the markets and see if we can't make some sense out of the trading environment.
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Monday, July 25, 2011
Euro Collapse, U.S. Debt Ceiling Default Armageddon Irrelevant to Stocks Stealth Bull Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The financial news is bad, very bad, don't see how it could get much worse with europe's debt default contagion spreading to Italy and Spain sending bond yields soaring to Euro life-time record highs, whilst in the U.S. there is talk of imminent debt default on failure to raise the debt ceiling prompting the mainstream press talking heads aided by the BlogosFear to once more iterate a busted flush that the stocks bear market is about to resume (just as has been the case for the past 2+ years).
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Sunday, July 24, 2011
U.S. Debt Ceiling Deadlock, Default & the Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
EU Black Debt Crisis in RemissionOn Thursday, Euro-area leaders stepped up their efforts to resolve the ongoing Greek debt crisis, announcing €159Bn ($229Bn) in new aid for Greece. They arranged for bondholders to foot part of the bill and expanded the power of the €440Bn Euro rescue fund to buy debt across stressed European nations - “after a market rout last week sparked concern the crisis was spreading. The fund can also aid troubled banks and offer credit-lines to repel speculators.” The Euroland leaders hope to construct a financial “firewall” around struggling countries like Spain and Italy, while assuaging fears that the debt crisis is spreading. French President Sarkozy compared the transformation of the bailout fund to the creation of a “European Monetary Fund.” (EU Leaders Offer $229 Billion in New Greek Aid)
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Sunday, July 24, 2011
U.S. Debt Ceiling Crisis Talks failure Could Hit Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014-16.
SPX: Long-term trend - The probability that the bull market which started in March 2009 may have ended when the SPX reached 1370 on 5/02/11, is very low.
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Sunday, July 24, 2011
Stock Market Major Top and Gold Breakout Targets $1750 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Recently I have had several members of my service requesting my thoughts on the macroeconomic backdrop which is shaping financial markets. I decided I would proffer an article about why I find such practice to be a total waste of time. Don’t get me wrong, acknowledging what is going on in the world around us as a trader is important because economic data and geopolitical events shape social mood. Social mood is just one catalyst that directly impacts financial markets and it is important for traders to monitor the world around them.
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Sunday, July 24, 2011
Singapore and Malaysia: Two Ways Investors Can Play the Region Between India and China / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Carl Delfeld writes: Located south of China and east of India, the booming Southeast Asian region is oftentimes overlooked by even the most sophisticated investors. The free trade pact between the regional grouping (ASEAN) and China inked early this year has led to a jump in trade and investment.
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