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Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 29, 2021

Stock Market Leverage Reaches New All-Time Highs As The Excess Phase Rally Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

A recent Forbes article highlights the incredible increase in market leverage since the start of the COVID-19 crisis.  There has never been a time in recent history where market leverage has reached these extreme levels.  Additionally, highly leveraged market peaks are typically associated with asset bubbles. 

The easy money policies and global central bank actions have prompted one of the longest easy money market rallies in history.  Historically low interest rates, US Federal Reserve and global central bank asset-buying programs, and extended overnight credit support have prompted some traders and investors to move into a more highly leveraged position expecting the rally to stay endless.  Although, the reality of the global market trends may be starting to cause traders and investors to become a bit unsettled.  Precious Metals, Utilities, and Bonds have all started reacting to perceived fear related to this extended bullish rally trend recently.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 28, 2021

AI Tech Stocks Lead the Bull Market Charge / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks

By: Nadeem_Walayat

let's see if the correction materialises so I can buy more stocks after the recent March dip in tech stocks that allowed me to pick up the likes of TSMC for $110, amongst several others on my target list including AMD and Nvidia, though Facebook failed to succumb to mainstream media hysteria instead took off like a rocket to currently stand at well above $300 which whether one likes it or not is precisely what one expects good stocks to do! Even the sleeping giant IBM broke out of it's year long trading range. Whilst Intel despite releasing a pile of garbage 11th Gen rocket lake processors, performing worse than their 10th Gen CPUs! That one would have thought would have resulted in weak hands selling out of their holdings and thus giving us a dip to below $50 to buy some more for the long-run, instead Intel has had a moon shot of its own trading towards 20 year highs! Hardly price action that one would expect from what I consider to be sleeping giants! Which is indicative of what's really going on under the hood that most still fail to grasp which is the exponential nature of the AI mega-trend and of course the rampant money printing inflation mega-trend. That and perhaps there aren't many weak hands left holding IBM and Intel stock.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 28, 2021

Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Current Risk Remains VERY LOW at 5%, Recent highest reading was 15%.

This Indicator is one of the neural nets I am working on as my AI takes baby steps into understanding how to interpret the stock market. It's task is to state the current risk of a bear market or crash being imminent i.e. within the next couple of weeks or so. So an independant technical indicator that acts as a warning to HEDGE stock portfolios ahead of further high probability drops in the market. Where my preferred hedging tool is to go short stock index futures so as to capitalise on any drop without selling any stock holdings, and delivering fresh funds to buy more AI stocks at deep discounts just as I did during March 2020. The last time this indicator triggered a warning was late February 2020, so it is NOT a trading indicator but instead advance warning that a correction already underway could turn into something worse so I need to hedge my stocks portfolio to some degree.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 28, 2021

No Upsetting the Apple Cart in Stocks or Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

The tax hike proposal shock is over, and S&P 500 took again on the ATHs on Friday. Buying pressure throughout the day lasted almost till the closing bell, and is likely to continue this week as well. And why shouldn‘t it – has anything changed? The artificial selling any capital gains tax hike would generate, is likely to come before year end – not now:

(…) Look still though how little has changed, as if the tax raising plans haven‘t been around since the infrastructure bill or implicitly even before. It‘s still April, and markets are pricing in not only this select reality, but broader tax increases coming. Yes, they have woken up, and the reflation paradigm is getting an unwelcome companion. This hit won‘t bring down the bull, but will slow it down – and the implications for broader economy will only hasten the pronounced advent of the commodities supercycle (well underway since the corona deflationary crash last year).

The move towards risk-on was clearly there, overpowering the USD  bulls yet again as the dollar bear market has reasserted itself. It‘s not just about EUR/USD on the way to its late Feb highs, but about the USD/JPY too – the yen carry trade is facing headwinds these days, acting as a supportive factor for gold prices. While these went through a daily correction, commodities pretty much didn‘t – lumber is powering to new highs, agrifoods didn‘t have a down day in April, copper and oil scored respectable gains. The market is in a higher inflation environment already, and it will become increasingly apparent that commodity-led inflation is here to stay.

Back to stocks and bonds, the S&P 500 took well to a daily rise in Treasury yields – and that‘s the key factor overall. The turnaround was most clearly seen in tech heavyweights but defensive sectors such as consumer staples or utilities didn‘t do well (they‘re interest rate sensitive, after all), and Dow Jones Industrial Average traded closer to the optimistic side of the spectrum. The second piece of the puzzle came from value stocks and financials, which are working to put an end to their own shallow correction – just as you would expect when rates take a turn higher.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 28, 2021

SPX Indicators Flashing Stock Market Caution / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX has completed the next phase of its intermediate uptrend and should correct.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, April 26, 2021

The Tax Plan to Slay the Stocks Bull Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

A day like almost any other – S&P 500 about to take again on the ATHs until the capital gains tax hike proposal came, shaving off 50 points in stocks within an hour. The 4,415 support held though, both before and after the closing bell. Are we ready to shake off the cold water and resume running higher again?

Depends on where you look – stocks have quite some recovering still to do, and it‘s the precious metals and commodities that are performing best today. Both as an index and sectoral collection, the S&P 500 sustained broad damage, concentrated in the tech heavyweights. The volatility spike has been partially repelled but option traders seem expecting another shoe to drop, which attests to us better dampening expectations of a fast return above 4,170.

Look still though how little has changed, as if the tax raising plans haven‘t been around since the infrastructure bill or implicitly even before. It‘s still April, and markets are pricing in not only this select reality, but broader tax increases coming. Yes, they have woken up, and the reflation paradigm is getting an unwelcome companion. This hit won‘t bring down the bull, but will slow it down – and the implications for broader economy will only hasten the pronounced advent of the commodities supercycle (well underway since the corona deflationary crash last year).

As the Chinese say, may you live in interesting times, and I am glad to have caught the April 2020 turnaround reasonably well.  I‘m bringing this up just to say that this isn‘t the time to turn bearish on stocks yet – not in the least. The initial panic is over, real economy keeps recovering (amazing how fast were the reasonably good unemployment claims of yesterday forgotten, right?), inflation expectations aren‘t running progressively hotter, and Treasury yields continue retreating.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, April 26, 2021

See What’s Next for European Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: EWI

Dear reader,

"Will it break above $1?" That’s the question millions of crypto watchers are asking now.

Dogecoin may be on your watch list, too. After all, its 9000%+ rally year-to-date is no longer “funny.” What started as a joke is now very serious.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Sunday, April 25, 2021

SPX Stock Market Short Squeeze – Here Or Not? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 turned around at the open, and didn‘t look back. Is the selling over, have the markets turned the corner? Buy the dip looks to have won the day, VIX has been beaten back, and corporate credit markets scored strong gains. The benefit of the doubt would go with the bulls as the Russell 2000 and emerging markets joined in the buying spree. Heck, even the option traders turned more complacent again.

The table looks set for brighter days, but it‘s the odd performance in value (the reopening fireworks don‘t seem to go stale ever really) ignoring retreating yields, which the tech heavyweights strangely neither rejoiced. That reminds me of the dog that didn‘t bark story. I‘m thus looking for a daily consolidation of surprisingly easily gained ground without ruling out a weak downswing attempt – but it‘s the upside potential that‘s looking short-term limited here. The daily SPX chart doesn‘t give me confidence yet to declare this correction as not returning next week.

Nominal yields have again retreated a little, and inflation expectations are sending inconclusive messages – but don‘t forget that inflation is what the Fed ultimately wants. It just has to balance that with the Treasuries market not going into a tailspin – for now, mission accomplished, inflation expectations have peaked, move along, nothing to see here.

But the higher commodity prices are sending a clear message to the contrary – look for the PPI readings to be affecting CPI increasingly more. Markets aren‘t waiting for the Fed, and have been transitioning to a higher inflation environment already, even though the Fed sold the transitory talking points quite well – it would indeed be a 2022-3 story when inflation supported by the overheating job market would kick in. That‘s the context decreasing nominal yields should be interpreted in.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, April 25, 2021

Fiscal Guilt: What a Shift in Monetary Policy Portends for Investors / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger describes how he is protecting his portfolio as political and financial fortunes begin to change.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
—from the poem "In Flanders Field;" 1915

I have a confession to make: I am reaching the end of my personal level of nonviolent tolerance when being forced to listen to non-elected "authorities" standing in front of TV cameras reading their "prepared notes" from teleprompters without the vaguest clue as to what they are talking about.

Worse still are the elected "representatives of the citizenry" of any country, state or province, standing in that very same spot ordering the populace to "stay indoors" while warning that the police have been instructed to issue citations (or arrest) those in violation of an order that has never been enacted into law.

Whether they are politicians or bankers or bureaucratic buffoons of questionable agenda, all of them should be gagged and bound and carted off to a facility of incarceration with zero chance of release back into the "general population." They all represent an ever-increasing threat to not only my sanity but also, and more importantly, to my personal liberty.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 23, 2021

This "Lopsided" Stock Market Ratio Is Sending a Clear Signal / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: EWI

Investors always find ways to "rationalize" bearish or bullish stances

For a stock market investor who understands that markets are not random or chaotic but instead patterned, the most important information to know is the price pattern of the market in question.

For an Elliott wave investor, the task is even more defined. As Frost & Prechter's Wall Street classic book, Elliott Wave Principle, says:

The market's progression unfolds in waves. Waves are patterns of directional movement.

So, familiarity with the Elliott wave model for forecasting financial markets is a must.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 23, 2021

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Watch Out For The “Bear Market” / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

Throughout the years I have been writing on Seeking Alpha, many readers have recognized that we have been quite accurate in our market prognostications, yet they have had a hard time understanding the lens through which I view the markets.

I want to first start by stating that in all the years I have been doing research and analysis into financial markets, I have not found a single form of analysis that provides market context as does Elliott Wave analysis. In fact, it was the reason I was so confident in my expectation that the market would exceed the 4000SPX region even though we were down in the 2200SPX region last year.

So, before I move into my discussion of a “bear market,” I wanted to take a moment to again reference the six-part series I wrote, which explains not only the application of my analysis methodology, but also provides you with the background and theory behind the methodology: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/market-update/Elliott-Wave-Series-Part-1-201808184848063.html

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 22, 2021

Dow Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My trend forecast for 2021 as of the 8th of Feb analysis Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 is for a bull run to Dow 35k punctuated by a summer correction beginning early May as illustrated by the forecast graph for a gain of about 15% on the year.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 20, 2021

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: You May Not Believe My 2021 Targets / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

Ever since the market crash in February and March of 2020, so many investors, authors and analysts have been on high alert for the next shoe to drop.

In fact, I can no longer count how many articles (along with comments) I have read which have called this market one name or another, while looking for the next crash. While such descriptive name calling included a “bubble,” or “topping,” or having gone “too far too fast,” or “not supported by the fundamentals,” or having an “overly heated PE ratio,” it is clear that this rally has taken many by surprise, and many still do not believe in its ability to continue on further.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 20, 2021

Stock Market Phase Two Projection / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX has completed the next phase of its intermediate uptrend and should correct.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Monday, April 19, 2021

8 Stock Market Indicators in 1: Here's the Message of the Panic/Euphoria Model / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: EWI

Prior model extremes occurred in March 2000 and October 2007

Elliott Wave International has been providing market analysis for more than four decades -- which includes many bull/bear market cycles.

That said, the public's current market mindset -- especially among inexperienced investors -- is a reminder of the extremes surrounding the 2000 market top, and a few others.

For example, a February 27 MarketWatch headline said:

A new wave of fearless retail investors is ready to pour $170 billion into stocks ...

Also, according to an early February Deutsche Bank survey of online brokerage users, 61% are under 34 years of age and 45% are in their first year of investing.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, April 18, 2021

State of the European Markets - DAX, FTSE, CAC, AEX, SMI, IBEX 35, S&P/MIB, Euro Stoxx 50, RTS / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: EWI

Dear reader,

In many ways, over the past year Europe had it tougher than the rest.

And now, with the slow vaccine roll-out and calls for new lockdowns, things look shaky.

Despite all that, European stocks have powered on. The DAX even hit a record high!

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, April 17, 2021

Stocks and Bonds Inflationary Slingshot / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Gary_Tanashian

Cost-push inflation could break out (and a note on gold)

Before beginning the post a little context is in order. We (NFTRH) anticipated the current pause in long-term Treasury yields (one indicator of inflation) because pro-inflation sentiment became over-done in March and was due for a cool down; so said a contrarian view. This post discussing the likelihood of more inflation to come is not written by a one-way bias booster. It’s important for credibility to make these distinctions from the herds running with the daily news cycle.

The short-term contrary sentiment situation against the inflation view began with the Bond King’s media-touted short of long-term Treasuries (i.e. expectation of higher yields), per one of our best macro tools…

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 16, 2021

US Stocks Climb A “Wall Of Worry” To New Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Low volume rallies have become a standard of trending recently.  We see higher volume when volatility kicks in near areas of broad market volatility.  Otherwise, we see lower volume trending push the prices higher recently in a “melt-up” type of mode.

Two recent standout events confirm this type of trending and volatility phases of the markets: (1) the September 2020 to early November 2020 (pre-US Election) rotation in price; and (2) the recent February 2021 to late March 2021 sideways price rotation related to the FOMC meeting/comments.  Both of these events centered around external market components and prompted an extended period of price volatility related to uncertainty.  After these events passed, price fell back into a low volume rally mode for many months, where most of the actual price gains happened.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 16, 2021

See what Anatomy of a Bursting Market Bubble looks like / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble

By: EWI

Those who are familiar with the Elliott wave model for analyzing and forecasting financial markets know that a main trend takes the form of five waves.

Thus, when the fifth wave is complete, a trend in the opposite direction is set to begin.

Another insight into the Wave Principle that's relevant to the present discussion is that corrections often end at the terminus of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree of trend.

If that sounds like a mouthful, hold on, you're about to see a market example that'll make it plain as day.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 16, 2021

Many Stock Market Sectors Are Primed For Another Breakout Rally – Are You? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we start moving into the Q1:2021 earnings season, we need to be aware of the risks associated with the volatility often associated with earnings data and unknowns.  Nonetheless, there are other factors that appear to be present in current trends which suggest earnings may prompt a moderately strong upside breakout rally – again.

One key factor is that the US markets are already starting to price in forwarding expectations related to a reflation economy – a post-COVID acceleration in activity, consumer participation, and manufacturing.  Secondarily, we must also consider the continued stimulus efforts, easy monetary policy from the US Fed, and the continued trending related to the 12+ month long COVID-19 recovery rally. 

In some ways, any damage to the economy related to COVID-19 may have already happened well over 6+ months ago.  Certainly, there are other issues we are still dealing with and recovering from, but the strength of the US economy since May/June of 2020 has been incredible.  When we combine the strength of the economic recovery with the extended support provided by the US Fed and US government stimulus/policy efforts, we are left with only one conclusion:  the markets will likely continue to rally until something stops this trend.

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