Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, September 28, 2022
How to Profit During a Bear Market - Portfolio Account / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Back in early April I opened an IKBR ISA with £20k (ISA limit) that I proceeded to quickly populate with target stocks as they traded down to new bear market lows. ISA's limit what one can do, i.e. NO SHORTING, Options and no access to most ETF's due to HMRC rules, another restriction is one cannot hold US Dollars, every buy and sell has to be converted into and out of US dollars, so ISA's are definitely geared towards longer term investors. Anyway the IKBR ISA acts as a good real world proxy for how my public portfolio should perform if one followed my analysis, where the primary goal is to accumulate during this temporary bear market to capitalise on during the subsequent bull market, my expectations from the outset were that there WILL BE DRAWDOWNS because stock prices FALL during bear markets so as to result in the buying opportunities, stocks getting cheaper during a bear market is a good thing! Cheaper in terms of their valuations for if a stock price falls and the stock gets more expensive in valuation terms then that is NOT a good thing!
Current state of the IKBR ISA is up 12% since inception (Early April 2022) through following my analysis of buying target stocks when they trade down to NEW LOWS and then trimming lightly on the subsequent rallies, cash now comprises about 33% of this portfolio up from about 3% near the lows, as IKBR does not charge a rip off f/x fee as many brokers, for comparison FreeTrade charges 0.45%, AJ Bell 1% and Interactive Investor charge 1.5%, what are they smoking! AJ Bell recently cut their f/x fee to 0.75% but their platform is a pain in the butt to use for US stocks i.e. NO LIMIT ORDERS!
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Monday, September 26, 2022
S&P June Stock Market Lows - To Break or Not to Break? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market - To break the June Low or not to break the June low, that is the question?
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Saturday, September 24, 2022
Stock Market BULL Trap SET! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market FOMO's to 4280 Friday close ending at the high of the day! Short covering rally triggered by CPLIE of 8.5% down from 9.1% for June, all blind to the reality of what Inflation above 4% let alone above 8% actually means for the US economy and how it impacts the every day lives of ordinary americans that are destined for greater pain with each passing month even if CPLIE nose dives to under 4% which will make NO difference in terms of the Inflation pain that I suspect will run for the whole of this decade as the 10 year inflation graph warns of what looks set to come to pass. It's not rocket science, it's the consequences of over $9 trillion of QE, and $35 trillion of total GLOBAL money printing QE, the only way it won't show up in the inflation indices is if they systematically exclude everything that goes up in price, perhaps only leaving the ball point pen that Jerome Powell fidgets with at every Fed meeting.
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Friday, September 23, 2022
Economic Conditions, Market Performance Worsen after Fed Rate Hike / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets are trying to tough this week despite another large rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
On Wednesday, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by three quarters as expected. Fed chairman Jerome Powell vowed to bring inflation down and restore price stability.
Jerome Powell: My colleagues and I are strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal. We have both the tools we need and the resolve that it will take to restore price stability on behalf of American families and businesses. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone. We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2%. The longer the current bout of high inflation continues the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched.
After pursuing ultra-loose monetary policy that fomented price instability and massive inflation in the first place, Powell seems to now want to model himself after former Fed chairman Paul Volcker. In the early 1980s, Volcker jacked up interest rates to the highest on record to finally curtail the inflation surge from the late 1970s.
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Friday, September 23, 2022
Why You Should Be Leery of the Stocks Bond 60 / 40 Portfolio / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
"The tidal wave of risk assumption … may be turning"
Many investors allocate a percentage of their portfolios to bonds to cushion against a drop in the stock market.
A popular allocation is a 60 / 40 mix of stocks and bonds.
However, this hasn't worked out recently. Here's a Yahoo! Finance headline (Sept. 6):
The 60/40 strategy is on pace for its worst year since 1936: BofA
The mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds was down 19.4% from the start of the year through the end of August, according to Bank of America Global Research.
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Thursday, September 22, 2022
Stock Market Smashing Fed Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 turned decisively lower, with only a very brief spike that got reversed within an hour. No room for bullish misinterpretation, Powell didn‘t say really anything that could feed buy the dip sentiment – he delivered. Treasuries are getting accustomed to the soft landing not turning out so soft in the future actually – yields at the long end of the curve have finally turned down while Fed tightening keeps being reflected on the short end, and junk bonds are suffering.
In all the risk-off, the dollar was unable to hold on to sharp gains both yesterday and today, and together with the crypto premarket upswing and real asset resiliency, this points to a reprieve in paper asset selling later this week. SPX 3,825 is the key level to watch today. I like the message commodities and precious metals are sending here – once it gets accompanied by miners and oil sector stocks, things would get brighter, but we are not there yet. Suffice to say that sharp downside is being decisively rejected.
Wednesday, September 21, 2022
STOCKS BEAR MARKETS ARE SUPPOSED TO BE PAINFUL! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The bottom line is that bear markets are supposed to be PAINFUL! And I can tell many investors feel that PAIN from the comments as they post the latest price of say Intel or AMD or TSMC or any other stock trading lower as if I have a magic button to press to make the stock go higher. So if you are feeling PAIN then go read my earlier recent articles on the psychology of investing in bear markets because bear markets are PAINFUL where the degree of pain experienced depends on what time frame on is focused upon.
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Tuesday, September 20, 2022
Stocks Bear Market Accumulation Strategy / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My strategy for this bear market from the outset has been be to accumulate during a volatile trend to a probable Dow target of 29k to 30k where I settled on my best guess of 29.6k, by late August. In the course of which I was expecting volatile swings of between 15% to 30% in either direction that would allow me to BUY big during the DIPs and then SELL a portion of what I bought during the bear market rallies, as well as selective shorting. Unfortunately this bear market has tuned out to be LESS volatile than what I was expecting i.e. swings higher of 9% are just not enough for any significant trimming of positions as the table illustrates.
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Friday, September 16, 2022
Dow Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Despite being skeptical of Elliott wave theory and not abiding by any of it's tenants, i.e. I number the counts as I see them regardless of following the 'rules'. Nevertheless Elliott wave proved a useful tool during 2021 in the count down to the end of the Stocks bull market and the start of this bear market as the charts illustrate that there are times when EW BS actually works!
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Thursday, September 15, 2022
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis and Trend Forecast Sept to Dec 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Despite being skeptical of Elliott wave theory and not abiding by any of it's tenants, i.e. I number the counts as I see them regardless of following the 'rules'. Nevertheless Elliott wave proved a useful tool during 2021 in the count down to the end of the Stocks bull market and the start of this bear market as the charts illustrate that there are times when EW BS actually works!
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Friday, September 09, 2022
Stocks Bear Market Rally End Game / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Mega earnings week saw the stock market soar on reporting euphoria where apparently the worse the earnings the stronger the rally in stocks such as Amazon due to the twin forces of investors piling into breakouts AND the market running short stops, which surely implies that the bear market could be OVER! After all the stock market discounts the future and so is looking beyond current BAD earnings and economic data to the blue sky's of future quarters, that coupled with US bonds rallying as the market tempered future interest rate expectations down from a peak of 4% for Mid 2023 to currently 3.25% all contributing towards the S&P closing higher at 4130.
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Friday, September 09, 2022
Here's a Potential Signal for What May Be Next for U.S. Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
This action by investors resulted in "the highest total since 2014, and probably ever"
Frost & Prechter's Wall Street classic book, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, first published nearly 45 years ago and said:
"Eight years of a raging bear market have taught today's investor to be cautious, conservative and cynical. Defensiveness is not in evidence at tops."
Considering this description of investors' mindset in the late '70s and early '80s, many market observers were not contemplating the start of a big bull market.
Yet, Elliott Wave Principle did forecast a major uptrend and that's what happened.
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Friday, September 09, 2022
Answering Questions About Private Equity with Mark Hauser / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Sumeet_Manhas
According to McKinsey’s Private Markets Annual Review released in March of this year, private equity is continuing to experience growth. The report found that private market assets under management (AUM) has grown 170 percent over the past ten years, increasing by $4 trillion and today has reached an all-time high of $6.3 trillion. There are twice as many private equity firms out there than there were a decade ago, and the pooled investment rate of return (IRR) of 27 percent in 2021 saw private equity continue to be the highest-performing private markets asset class.
Mark Hauser, co-managing partner of Hauser Private Equity, highlights below what you need to know about private equity. Since its inception in 2008, Hauser Private Equity’s five funds have invested over $350 million in capital in privately-owned businesses nationally. With over three decades of investing and operating company experience, Hauser has facilitated the completion of over 500 investments and successfully realized over 150 of them.
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Monday, September 05, 2022
Stock Market Reality Check / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Mega earnings week saw the stock market soar on reporting euphoria where apparently the worse the earnings the stronger the rally in stocks such as Amazon due to the twin forces of investors piling into breakouts AND the market running short stops, which surely implies that the bear market could be OVER! After all the stock market discounts the future and so is looking beyond current BAD earnings and economic data to the blue sky's of future quarters, that coupled with US bonds rallying as the market tempered future interest rate expectations down from a peak of 4% for Mid 2023 to currently 3.25% all contributing towards the S&P closing higher at 4130.
Whilst the market was in the grips of BAD earnings mania I took the opportunity to trim my holdings which is another word for light selling, where my selling only went deep for Amazon which took my percent of portfolio down from 1.6% to 1.3% though after taking account of the price jump it's back up to 1.5% of portfolio which means I will probably sell more Amazon next week/ Whilst percent exposure is irrelevant right now as I am seeking to further reduce my max exposure limit. So more selling in the pipeline for Amazon and to a lesser extent others as the stock market so far has not done anything I have not been expecting it to do with the S&P having fulfilled my minimum target of 4080 and now has entered the TREACLE resistance zone of 4080 to 4180 as my forecast graph of some months illustrates.
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Friday, September 02, 2022
Stock Market Bull Bear Cat and Mouse Game / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 dicey premarket upswing fizzled out right after the open, volume picked up, and market breadth correspondigly deteriorated. Bonds confirmed, and the higher yields didn‘t even send the dollar much upwards. Together with the sea of red in commodities and precious metals, this smacks of deleveraging, still of the relatively orderly flavor if you look at the well behaved VIX at 26 only. The steep post Jackson Hole downswing will pause, but there isn‘t a sign that would happen precisely today yet.
Looking at the daily chart of CRB Index, crude oil, gold and silver with the miners, odds are that we would see a repeat of yesterday‘s action today as well – to a good degree. Not much has really change since my yesterday‘s review of real assets and cryptos, and especially the crude oil setback (reinforced by the Iran deal speculation Europe is pinning its eyes on) is generally worrying. The Fed keeps hammering the same message, and short end of the curve keeps duly rising. Tombstone reminder for those overstaying in the S&P 500 rally to the 200-day moving average, would be „don‘t fight the Fed – the central bank doesn‘t have your bank now, and would act on the out of control inflation“.
Thursday, September 01, 2022
Qualcom Harbinger, AI Predicts Future Stock Prices 3 Years Ahead, China Bank Runs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
QCOM illustrates how the bottoms will tend to play out for most of the AI tech stocks, for if you are not already invested then you will likely end up waiting for the second chance to buy near the bottom all the way towards new all time highs. For instance I would be surprised if we see anywhere near $118 on Qualcom again, I may be wrong but I am assuming there are a lot of investors now wishing they had bought near $120 and are thus eager for another bite at the cherry.
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Thursday, September 01, 2022
Beware of This Deceptive Stocks Bear-Market Trait / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
There's only one rule which applies to a 2nd wave rally...
Big stock market trends don't progress up or down in a straight line. In a bear market, stocks typically rebound after the first leg down. In a bull market, the opposite happens: Stocks again take a big dive, making everyone think the bear market has returned.
But in a bear market, that "first leg down" is wave 1 and the partial "rebound" which follows is wave 2. I say "partial" because the only rule which applies to wave 2 is that it cannot retrace 100% of wave 1. Meaning, the bear market rally cannot go above the previous market top.
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Saturday, August 20, 2022
Stock Market Trend Target, Why Peak Inflation is a Red Herring / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market remains within a trading range of S&P 3935 to 3720 with the most recent price action being a rally following a brief break BELOW the range on Thursday to run the long stops before the market reversed sharply higher. The S&P looks set to target a break of 3935 the importance of which would be to go against the bear markets tendency for down swings to exceed the preceding up swings which thus acts to weaken the bear market until either a reversal from bear market to bull market is confirmed or the bear market once more puts in a dominant big downswing. Nevertheless a break above 3935 would indicate that the last swing down was just -5.7% and thus corrective against the previous upswing of +8.9% that at least suggests to expect a similar swing higher and thus in the first instance targets 4036 which is inline with my existing target to reach resistance between 4080 and 4120.
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Saturday, August 13, 2022
Qualcom Stock Market Harbinger / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
QCOM illustrates how the bottoms will tend to play out for most of the AI tech stocks, for if you are not already invested then you will likely end up waiting for the second chance to buy near the bottom all the way towards new all time highs. For instance I would be surprised if we see anywhere near $118 on Qualcom again, I may be wrong but I am assuming there are a lot of investors now wishing they had bought near $120 and are thus eager for another bite at the cherry.
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Thursday, August 11, 2022
Severe Stocks Bear Market: Will You Be Among the Prepared 1.5%? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
"Oftentimes, rallies will end with an inter-index non-confirmation"A long-long time ago in a galaxy far away... errr, on the heels of the year 2000 dot-com crash, to be exact -- which is ancient history for many investors today -- the February 2003 Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which has covered financial markets and major cultural trends since 1979, published an interview with Elliott Wave International President Robert Prechter.
Prechter was asked if he was surprised by investors' lack of capitulation since the bear market started in 2000.
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