Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, February 08, 2011

What Happens in a Sideways Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: John_Mauldin

Today's OTB features an excerpt from my friend Vitaliy Katsenelson's recently published The Little Book of Sideways Markets. Vitaliy is CIO at Investment Management Associates, a value investment firm in Denver, and he is a prolific and engaging writer (you can find and subscribe to his articles at http://ContrarianEdge.com). I had the pleasure of writing the foreword to Vitaliy's book, and here is a brief excerpt:

Tuesday, February 08, 2011

Stock Market Trending Higher Still.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Jack_Steiman

The questions are asked daily. How soon will the correction begin? Shouldn't I be selling my longs and going short and short aggressively? I can't blame people for wondering about those issues. It makes sense emotionally. The problem is, it hasn't made sense in the real world. Bull markets can be very stressful on bulls and bears alike. The bulls get stressed out the higher they go. The bears get stressed out wondering just how much pain they can endure and when will those losses finally end. Nothing worse than being short and watching the market blast higher.

Monday, February 07, 2011

Stock and Commodity Markets Heading for Summer Break / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011

By: Toby_Connor

It has been my contention all along that the Fed would print until something breaks. Once that break occurs we will enter the next leg down in the secular bear market. This time I don't expect it to be the credit markets, although we will almost certainly have trouble in the municipal and state bond markets. Some may even default.

I actually think the greater risk is from massive layoffs by state and local governments in an effort to cut expenses and avoid default. When that begins we will see unemployment levels start to spike again.

Monday, February 07, 2011

Stock Market Bias Remains Bullish, But Resistance Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Chris_Ciovacco

We head into the new week with some good news from the Middle East, Europe, and the United States. The bias on the Street remains positive, but from a strategy perspective we have potential resistance to contend with near 1,315 and 1,326 on the S&P 500. Below, we outline a possible approach for the week from a portfolio management perspective. Quick reads from this morning’s news capture the early tone for Monday:

Monday, February 07, 2011

Stock Market Real Negative Returns for the Next Decade, Bear Market in PEs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations

By: Mike_Shedlock

Market cheerleaders keep ratcheting up expected earnings, failing to note that much of the recent earnings growth is simply not sustainable.

Reasons for Unsustainable Earnings Growth

• Much of the recent earnings growth is directly related to federal stimulus that will eventually end.
• Much of the earnings in the financial sector are a mirage, based on assets not marked-to-market and insufficient loan loss reserves. The Fed and the FASB have repeatedly postponed rules changes for the benefit of banks and other financial institutions.
• Earnings in both the financial and nonfinancial sectors have margins outside historical norms, based on very low headcounts and outsourcing.

Monday, February 07, 2011

Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for Week Starting 7th Feb / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Tony_Caldaro

The market again recovered from an end of month decline to start a new month off in positive fashion. This has been an ongoing theme during this seven month uptrend. Economic reports for the week were quite good: 13 positive and 3 negative. On the negative side, monthly Payrolls came in lower than expected, construction spending and the M1 multiplier both declined. On the positive side, ISM manufacturing/services improved, along with the Chicago PMI, monthly auto sales, factory orders, personal income/spending, PCE prices, Q4 productivity, the ADP, weekly jobless claims, unemployment, the WLEI and the monetary base.

Sunday, February 06, 2011

The Financial Crisis of 2015 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Trader_Mark

An interesting paper by international management consulting firm Oliver Wyman, on the potential for the next Financial Crisis to play out around 2015.  This is not necessarily a 'prediction' per se, but an outline of the next black swan.  At the heart of it is once more.... central bankers, especially those of an American kind.   I am 100% sure the central bankers will cause another crisis, but what year and via what instruments is a guess. 

Sunday, February 06, 2011

Financial Markets Train Smash 2011... / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011

By: Brian_Bloom

For those who have the eyes to see, conditions for a train smash in the financial markets continue to build. This conclusion does not flow from a predisposition on the part of this analyst to be pessimistic. It flows from the facts – some of which have been highlighted in the three previous editorials of this name, and some of which are presented below.

Sunday, February 06, 2011

Value of Gold? (vs. currency, oil and stocks) / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011

By: Richard_Shaw

Let’s look at the possible value of gold from three angles:

• real money — replacing all paper currency in the world
• energy equivalent value — how much oil can gold buy?
• stock market value — how many S&P 500 index shares can gold buy?

Sunday, February 06, 2011

Stock Market Indexes Look Like April 2010 Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: David_Grandey

The charts of the indexes today remind us of April 2010 where the indexes chewed around for what seemed like eternity before rolling over.

So let’s explore that statement shall we? Below are the S&P 500 and OTC Comp charts of the April 2010 highs.

Sunday, February 06, 2011

Stock Market SPX Closed Above Cycle Top Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The FDIC Failed Bank List announced three new bank closures this week.  The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation seized the American Trust Bank, based in Roswell, Ga., with $238.2 million in assets and $222.2 million in deposits; the North Georgia Bank of Watkinsville, Ga., with $153.2 million in assets and $139.7 million in deposits; and the Chicago-based Community First Bank, with $51.1 million in assets and $49.5 million in deposits.

Saturday, February 05, 2011

Stock Market February Seasonality / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis

By: John_Hampson

February is an interesting month by seasonality. Typically the start of six months of underperformance for precious metals and the start of six months of outperformance for oil, it is also the second weakest month of the calendar for stocks.

On this occasion I expect Gold to buck seasonal weakness, given that it has been consolidating for the last 3 months during its seasonally strong time and is now signalling a buy:

Saturday, February 05, 2011

Egypt’s Civil Unrest Could Spread to Asia, What It Means for Your Investments! / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets

By: Bryan_Rich

In recent weeks we’ve seen riots in Algeria, a coup in Tunisia and a massive public uprising in Egypt. The catalyst: The combination of skyrocketing food prices and high, persistent unemployment.

But while most are focusing on the specific political shortcomings within the countries and dismissing the events as isolated and contained, the lessons learned from this global economic crisis give every reason to expect contagion …

Saturday, February 05, 2011

Stock Market Bubbles, Crowds and Credit / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Doug_Wakefield

“…now that the recession is over, we have to face the fact that the government must make cuts.”

“We put rules in place to prevent another financial crisis…” President Barack H. Obama, State of the Union, Tuesday, January 24 ‘11

Saturday, February 05, 2011

Stock Market Investors Be Careful - It’s Not Easy to Get Rich Quick! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Sy_Harding

Over the last decade investors and home-owners experienced a series of brutal beatings in what was historically a very short period of time.

Many investors took heavy losses in the 2000-2002 bear market when even the blue chip S&P 500 lost 50% of its value. Many then got caught up in the housing bubble, maxing out mortgages that were unsafe unless home prices kept rising at a record pace. They lost sizable amounts when instead the housing bubble burst and home prices plunged. In too many cases they lost their homes as well. No sooner had the stock market recovered in the 2003-2007 bull market than investors lost heavily again in the 2007-2009 bear market, when once again the S&P 500 lost 50% of its value.

Friday, February 04, 2011

Is The U.S. Stock Market Rally Sustainable? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: John_Browne

This week, the financial media celebrated as the Dow closed above the 12,000 mark for the first time since June 19th, 2008. For many, this milestone is another sign that the financial nightmare of the past three years will soon fade in the rearview mirror.

Friday, February 04, 2011

Stocks Getting Boost From Commercial Real Estate / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Chris_Ciovacco

While it would have seemed implausible during the depths of the 2008 financial crisis, the financial markets and economy are getting a boost from commercial real estate. According to Bloomberg:

Friday, February 04, 2011

Sloppy BubbleOmics: Case-Study John Maudlin And Jeremy Grantham / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Andrew_Butter

John Maudlin recently put out an article called “Pavlov’s Bulls, the Importance of Asset Class Bubbles for Value Investors and Why They Occur”, which pretty much summarizes popular misconceptions about financial bubbles.

Friday, February 04, 2011

U.S. Citizens Go Global With Your Wealth, Before It’s Too Late / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011

By: David_Galland

David Galland, Managing Director, Casey Research writes: It has been years since I last watched The Matrix, a lapse I corrected last night. As the movie makers intended, the film serves as stark metaphor of the world as we know it.

Or, more appropriately, as we think we know it. If asked, the average citizen of these United States would describe their life in entirely ordinary terms. They work at such-and-such a company, they live in this or that place, they enjoy one activity or another, and so on.

Friday, February 04, 2011

Stock Market Investors Need to be Aware of Power in Mass Collateral Damage / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Joseph_Russo

Those seated comfortably in every niche of concentrated power should duly note that their well-guarded monopolies of power and influence are not nearly as invincible as they might perceive them to be.

As evidenced in Egypt, on the turn of a dime, what at one moment appeared status quo turned business-as-usual into a living nightmare.