Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, September 21, 2023
QE4EVER / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
For over a year now all you have heard on MSM has been how tapering is bearish for asset prices, what;s the narrative that the perma fools have clung onto for new bear market lows being just around the corner right to the recent wholesale capitulation where bears turned into blow off top clowns!
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Tuesday, September 12, 2023
Stock Market Trend Pattern and Bond Market Opportunity / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Inflation Bond Fire of the Vanities Breeds Opportunity
Fitch downgrades US Debt to AA+ prompts MSM clown narrative for triggering a rise in yields and falling stocks, there is ALWAYS a reason for why market moves, usually the same reason is used for either outcome up or down! The US debt downgrade that is the focus of MSM is a nothing burger as both rising yields and falling stocks were expected long before Fitch pressed the downgrade button as the stock market had transitioned form the topping phase off of the 4600 high set a few days ago (27th July) into a downtrend proper during August that is set to run into a window of late September to Mid October 2023 targeting a decline of at least 10%, so into and S&P range of 4180 to 4100 with many if not most target AI tech stocks set to see a decline typically by 20% off their highs, some more than others, and in fact many were already well into their downtrends coming into August such as AMD which topped at $132.5, which is why I often refer to the S&P as a red herring and caution against basing ones decisions off of the S&P, for instance there was no point waiting for S&P 4600 to trim AMD which FOMO 'd to $132.5 well over a month ago!
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Tuesday, September 12, 2023
Stocks Bear Market Leader? Here's a Prime Candidate / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
This stock market sector has failed to recover since the Dow's Q1 correction
As you may know, in every bull or bear market, some stocks or sector lead while others follow. So, the "leadership" in the stock market works both ways -- in uptrends and down.
The rally in stocks since last November has been led by a relatively few big cap tech names, like Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet and Meta.
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Wednesday, September 06, 2023
Stock Market's Character Has Changed -- Here's How / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: EWI
We're watching the VIX or "fear index" to see what's next
Stock market investors naturally want to know the closing numbers for the main stock indexes at the end of each trading day.
Yet, it's also good to dig deeper.
Let me show you some examples of how the U.S. Short Term Update, a thrice weekly Elliott Wave International publication which covers near-term trends of key U.S. financial markets, does just that.
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Monday, September 04, 2023
10 Ways To Invest For Growth In 2023 / Stock-Markets / Investing 2023
By: Mark_Adan
Investing for growth in 2023 presents a dynamic landscape that blends traditional investment vehicles with exciting emerging trends. One prominent avenue gaining attention is investment trusts for growth. These trusts offer a unique approach to achieving substantial returns over time. In this comprehensive guide, we'll delve into each of the 10 effective ways to invest for growth this year, exploring the nuances and benefits of each strategy.
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Saturday, August 19, 2023
Stocks Bull Market Phase One End Game Sector Rotation / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market ended the week at S&P 4410 off a new bull market high of 4448 against my expectations for a fuzzy week to deliver a correction this week enroute to the 4500+ final destination by late July to complete the first leg of this bull market and to herald a significant correction into October as illustrated by my original road maps -
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Monday, August 14, 2023
Stock Market FOMO Maniacs Rug Pull Imminent? US House Prices Trend Current State / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
We have CP LIE Tuesday and then the Fed rate meeting Wednesday in advance of which retail investors and many fund managers woke up June 1st to realise that there is a bull market underway and literally PANIC bought like a herd galloping towards the edge of the AI cliff.
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Wednesday, July 26, 2023
Can The Stock Market Now Head To New All-Time Highs? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Avi_Gilburt
Last weekend, I questioned whether a crash can still set up for much later this year? And, the answer is, "of course." This week, I question the opposite - that is, can we still get to the all-time high? And, the answer is also "of course."
Now, I have probably confused most of you reading the opening paragraph. But, I will explain my point below, and I do not need to utilize Talmudic logic to provide the explanation.
But, before I provide my explanation, I want to again address a few fallacies that I read this past week.
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Monday, July 24, 2023
Is The Stock Market Disconnected From Reality, Or Are You? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Avi_Gilburt
Ordinarily, I write one public article every week or so. However, after reading a number of other articles this week, and more importantly, reading the comments section, it has pushed me to consider writing an additional missive this week. And, within this article, I am going to address two topics which seem to have people looking the wrong way all too often.
“The Stock Market Is Disconnected From Reality”
One article after another and one comment after another presents us with the common perception that the stock market is not representing “reality.” And, the problem stems from the fact that all of these people view various economic factors as representing “reality,” which they then attempt to impute to the stock market price movement. And, when their factors do not match up with price action, their conclusion is that the stock market is not appropriately representative of “reality.”
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Saturday, July 22, 2023
Stock Market S&P500 2023 Road Map Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Continues to pull stocks relentlessly higher towards a target of 4,500 by late July. so any correction is likely to be minor i.e. something like a couple of hundred S&P points, 4100 at the lowest, where right now instead of FOMO-ing I am eyeing the run to sub 4000 during that deep pull back into October, so far the market has done nothing to negate this long standing expectation.
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Friday, July 21, 2023
CPI LIE, Fed Funds and Earnings and Recessions / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
CP LIE Tuesday
The smoke and mirrors annual inflation indices which mask the true magnitude of inflation pain that will run for the whole of this decade will Tuesday deliver a mix bag, a sharply lower headline rate falling towards 4%, whilst a stubbornly high core rate that will remain above 5% which is what the Fed is focused upon and thus likely to send yields higher. So the CPI should be a net bearish for stocks. Remember the Fed target is 2% not 5!
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Friday, July 21, 2023
AI Tech Stocks Red Lights and Sell Triggers / Stock-Markets / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
FOMO IS EXTREME, and up until last week's AAII survey the only thing that was lacking was a bullish investor sentiment gauge to match the stock prices going nuts to the upside! Well we got that with a shockingly extreme jump in investor sentient reading that went from 29% bull to 44.5% bull in 1 week!. Normally I don't pay much attention to this, but that is a BIG JUMP! We have not seen readings as high as this since late 2001, the pumps are definitely being primed for a sell off.
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Sunday, July 09, 2023
The AAII Stock Market Investor Sentiment Switch Got Flipped! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Nadeem_Walayat
FOMO IS EXTREME, and up until last week's AAII survey the only thing that was lacking was a bullish investor sentiment gauge to match the stock prices going nuts to the upside! Well we got that with a shockingly extreme jump in investor sentient reading that went from 29% bull to 44.5% bull in 1 week!. Normally I don't pay much attention to this, but that is a BIG JUMP! We have not seen readings as high as this since late 2001, the pumps are definitely being primed for a sell off.
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Tuesday, July 04, 2023
Current State of Stock Market FOMO / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
We have CP LIE Tuesday and then the Fed rate meeting Wednesday in advance of which retail investors and many fund managers woke up June 1st to realise that there is a bull market underway and literally PANIC bought like a herd galloping towards the edge of the AI cliff.
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Tuesday, July 04, 2023
Stock Market As Bullish As It Gets / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 didn‘t look back following the tame core PCE report, clearly betting on no recession and Fed to declare victory against inflation. For all the positive broadening of stock market breadth in cyclicals and tech alike, other asset classes incl. bonds didn‘t get as carried away, meaning that stocks are likely to do a shallow consolidation of steep Friday‘s gains just next (today and tomorrow premarket).
As I have written on Friday – on top of dip buying being the name of the game following Thursday‘s reaction:
(…) As I don‘t expect a hot inflation figure … this should work to ultimately let stocks overcome any initial gyration with ES move to the upside, helping real assets and weakening USD,
Thursday, June 29, 2023
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Will resolution of the Debt ceiling nothing burger send indices such as the S&P to the moon? Despite the fact that I have stated countless times that they are a red herring as the red hot chili pepper AI stocks rally illustrates S&P has been flat whilst AI tech stocks have gone to the moon. Nevertheless most remain obsessed by what the S&P will do, just as long as I can continue to ignore the Nasdaq! Getting ones knickers in a twist over the Nasdaq is what would sow maximum confusion when one just needs to stick with the script of gaining and maintaining exposure to the AI tech stocks as long as they remain largely grounded in reality and not go nuts as Nvidia has just done, more on Nvidia later.
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Thursday, June 29, 2023
Stocks and Junk Bonds: "This Divergence Appears Meaningful" / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: EWI
The trends of the junk bond and stock markets tend to be correlated.
The reason why is that junk bonds and stocks are closely affiliated in the pecking order of creditors in case of default. The rank of junk bonds is only slightly higher than equities because debt involves a contract.
Given these two markets are usually correlated, it's worth paying attention when a divergence takes place. Indeed, a divergence is in the works now. In other words, while stocks have been holding up, the price of junk bonds have been trending lower for much of the year.
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Thursday, June 22, 2023
Why Most investors Underperform the Stocks Indices / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear ReaderThe stock market ended the week at S&P 4410 off a new bull market high of 4448 against my expectations for a fuzzy week to deliver a correction this week enroute to the 4500+ final destination by late July to complete the first leg of this bull market and to herald a significant correction into October as illustrated by my original road maps -
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Thursday, June 22, 2023
Stock Market Liquidity Perfect Storm / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 decline led by tech met a first hesitant, then more resolute, intraday rebound led by tech retracing prior decline that XLI, XLB and XLE were unable to counter. Thanks to weighting as the share of Top 7 stocks had grown considerably with this bear market rally, these rotations have been insufficient in lifting up the index.
And today isn‘t shaping up to be much better – after breaking my key 4,403, the bears have 4,385 followed by 4,360 in sight. Notably, this is happening when Treasury is sucking liquidity from the market place (that money to buy fresh debt issuance has to come from somewhere, and we can be debating the transmission mechanism strength and accounting) and the Fed is still shrinking its balance sheet. As yet another tightening sign, BoE just raised...
Today‘s unemployment claims are likely to reiterate the hawkish Fed message ultimately, as in that the central bank still has room to tighten – and more of the realization that it would do that, which neither 3m nor 6m yield reflect totally.
Tuesday, June 20, 2023
Stocks Climb a Wall of Worry, Technical Analysis Broken / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market is literally climbing a wall of worry, refusing to give any opportunity for the mass of investors sat on the sidelines to jump on board the AI gravy trains unless they buy the highs! Most AI tech stocks are now very overbought i.e. Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, KLAC, AVGO which had an insane spike last week to $933 that triggered one of my distant SELL limit orders at $899 (current $812).
Whilst many are very overbought that does not mean they cannot become more overbought! This is the problem with TA, the charts tells you that markets are over bought and ripe for a correction, and so one anticipates a fat juicy correction to accumulate into on buying opps perhaps down to below S&P 4000, but as I often state Technical Analysis on it;s own is a coin flip, and worse still is that which most focus on the S&P which is a RED HERRING! Put the two together and you can see how easy it is for most investors to be constantly wrong footed by a. focusing on the S&P and b. not realising that TA is not that reliable going forward, in hindsight its perfect, but going forward it's at best 55/45. One has to go beyond the charts and crunch the numbers and understand the fundamentals that differ for every stock.
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