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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Friday, July 21, 2023

CPI LIE, Fed Funds and Earnings and Recessions / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

CP LIE Tuesday

The smoke and mirrors annual inflation indices which mask the true magnitude of inflation pain that will run for the whole of this decade will Tuesday deliver a mix bag, a sharply lower headline rate falling towards 4%, whilst a stubbornly high core rate that will remain above 5% which is what the Fed is focused upon and thus likely to send yields higher. So the CPI should be a net bearish for stocks. Remember the Fed target is 2% not 5!

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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 21, 2023

AI Tech Stocks Red Lights and Sell Triggers / Stock-Markets / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

FOMO IS EXTREME, and up until last week's AAII survey the only thing that was lacking was a bullish investor sentiment gauge to match the stock prices going nuts to the upside! Well we got that with a shockingly extreme jump in investor sentient reading that went from 29% bull to 44.5% bull in 1 week!. Normally I don't pay much attention to this, but that is a BIG JUMP! We have not seen readings as high as this since late 2001, the pumps are definitely being primed for a sell off.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, July 09, 2023

The AAII Stock Market Investor Sentiment Switch Got Flipped! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Nadeem_Walayat

FOMO IS EXTREME, and up until last week's AAII survey the only thing that was lacking was a bullish investor sentiment gauge to match the stock prices going nuts to the upside! Well we got that with a shockingly extreme jump in investor sentient reading that went from 29% bull to 44.5% bull in 1 week!. Normally I don't pay much attention to this, but that is a BIG JUMP! We have not seen readings as high as this since late 2001, the pumps are definitely being primed for a sell off.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, July 04, 2023

Current State of Stock Market FOMO / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

We have CP LIE Tuesday and then the Fed rate meeting Wednesday in advance of which retail investors and many fund managers woke up June 1st to realise that there is a bull market underway and literally PANIC bought like a herd galloping towards the edge of the AI cliff.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, July 04, 2023

Stock Market As Bullish As It Gets / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 didn‘t look back following the tame core PCE report, clearly betting on no recession and Fed to declare victory against inflation. For all the positive broadening of stock market breadth in cyclicals and tech alike, other asset classes incl. bonds didn‘t get as carried away, meaning that stocks are likely to do a shallow consolidation of steep Friday‘s gains just next (today and tomorrow premarket).

As I have written on Friday – on top of dip buying being the name of the game following Thursday‘s reaction:

(…) As I don‘t expect a hot inflation figure … this should work to ultimately let stocks overcome any initial gyration with ES move to the upside, helping real assets and weakening USD,

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, June 29, 2023

Stock Market Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Will resolution of the Debt ceiling nothing burger send indices such as the S&P to the moon? Despite the fact that I have stated countless times that they are a red herring as the red hot chili pepper AI stocks rally illustrates S&P has been flat whilst AI tech stocks have gone to the moon. Nevertheless most remain obsessed by what the S&P will do, just as long as I can continue to ignore the Nasdaq! Getting ones knickers in a twist over the Nasdaq is what would sow maximum confusion when one just needs to stick with the script of gaining and maintaining exposure to the AI tech stocks as long as they remain largely grounded in reality and not go nuts as Nvidia has just done, more on Nvidia later.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, June 29, 2023

Stocks and Junk Bonds: "This Divergence Appears Meaningful" / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023

By: EWI

The trends of the junk bond and stock markets tend to be correlated.

The reason why is that junk bonds and stocks are closely affiliated in the pecking order of creditors in case of default. The rank of junk bonds is only slightly higher than equities because debt involves a contract.

Given these two markets are usually correlated, it's worth paying attention when a divergence takes place. Indeed, a divergence is in the works now. In other words, while stocks have been holding up, the price of junk bonds have been trending lower for much of the year.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, June 22, 2023

Why Most investors Underperform the Stocks Indices / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear ReaderThe stock market ended the week at S&P 4410 off a new bull market high of 4448 against my expectations for a fuzzy week to deliver a correction this week enroute to the 4500+ final destination by late July to complete the first leg of this bull market and to herald a significant correction into October as illustrated by my original road maps -

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, June 22, 2023

Stock Market Liquidity Perfect Storm / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 decline led by tech met a first hesitant, then more resolute, intraday rebound led by tech retracing prior decline that XLI, XLB and XLE were unable to counter. Thanks to weighting as the share of Top 7 stocks had grown considerably with this bear market rally, these rotations have been insufficient in lifting up the index.

And today isn‘t shaping up to be much better – after breaking my key 4,403, the bears have 4,385 followed by 4,360 in sight. Notably, this is happening when Treasury is sucking liquidity from the market place (that money to buy fresh debt issuance has to come from somewhere, and we can be debating the transmission mechanism strength and accounting) and the Fed is still shrinking its balance sheet. As yet another tightening sign, BoE just raised...

Today‘s unemployment claims are likely to reiterate the hawkish Fed message ultimately, as in that the central bank still has room to tighten – and more of the realization that it would do that, which neither 3m nor 6m yield reflect totally.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, June 20, 2023

Stocks Climb a Wall of Worry, Technical Analysis Broken / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market is literally climbing a wall of worry, refusing to give any opportunity for the mass of investors sat on the sidelines to jump on board the AI gravy trains unless they buy the highs! Most AI tech stocks are now very overbought i.e. Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, KLAC, AVGO which had an insane spike last week to $933 that triggered one of my distant SELL limit orders at $899 (current $812).

Whilst many are very overbought that does not mean they cannot become more overbought! This is the problem with TA, the charts tells you that markets are over bought and ripe for a correction, and so one anticipates a fat juicy correction to accumulate into on buying opps perhaps down to below S&P 4000, but as I often state Technical Analysis on it;s own is a coin flip, and worse still is that which most focus on the S&P which is a RED HERRING! Put the two together and you can see how easy it is for most investors to be constantly wrong footed by a. focusing on the S&P and b. not realising that TA is not that reliable going forward, in hindsight its perfect, but going forward it's at best 55/45. One has to go beyond the charts and crunch the numbers and understand the fundamentals that differ for every stock.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, June 18, 2023

Possible Replay of an Ominous Stock Market Price Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: EWI

"I became panicky and covered at a considerable loss..."

The reason price patterns tend to repeat in the stock market is that investor psychology never changes.

The Elliott wave model directly reflects these largely predictable swings in investor psychology. That's what the Elliott wave principle is all about.

One of those price moves which has historically fooled investors is the first big rally in a bear market.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, June 18, 2023

Countdown to ES Stock Market Downleg / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 spike into options expiry Friday was predictably rejected, and tech led the daily reversal, joined by communications and discretionaries. This shot across the bow in the topping process (major top preceding lackluster summer culminating in Sep bottom) shows that Nasdaq wouldn‘t hesitate in leading the decline. That‘s the strength of passive investing in reverse – leading higher, and then leading lower.

This quad witching was a trial run, for I think the downtrend would establish itself within 2 weeks latest – and it wouldn‘t happen because of sharp deterioration in incoming data or proving that the mirage of avoiding recession is just that, a mirage. The market topping process thoroughly described a week ago would come from sheer overvaluation driven by AI FOMO that has taken stocks into extreme greed territory already – from realization thereof. Perhaps characteristically, while the bullish sentiment rises, stock funds are seeing outflows to bond funds.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, June 16, 2023

Test-Drive This Go-To Global Forecasting Service / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023

By: EWI

Dear reader,

Do you ever just feel completely run-ragged with all the choices and decisions you're presented with daily? I know I do.

What insurance carrier? What doctor? What school? What... the list is endless.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, June 11, 2023

Stock Market Preps for CPI LIE Inflation PUMP and DUMP / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Are the FOMO Maniacs about to get rug pulled?

We have CP LIE Tuesday and then the Fed rate meeting Wednesday in advance of which retail investors and many fund managers woke up June 1st to realise that there is a bull market underway and literally PANIC bought like a herd galloping towards the edge of the AI cliff.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 22, 2023

Stock Market CHEAT SHEET / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

It's your lucky day! You get access to my stock market brief that was made available to patrons just a few hours ago!

S&P 4192 - What if someone told you 7 months ago that TODAY the S&P would be trading at 4200 and the Dow at 33,900, how much would you value such analysis? $5 per month? https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 09, 2023

Stock Market Swings Analysis Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Swings Analysis

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 09, 2023

More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2023

By: EWI

This ETF "continues to make lower lows"

It's sobering to reflect on the fact that the second, third and fourth largest bank failures in U.S. history have all occurred in just the past few months.

They are First Republic, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New York. The failure of Washington Mutual in 2008 still ranks first.

And here's an interesting factoid from the New York Post (May 1):

This year's 3 bank failures held $532B in assets -- more than all lenders that collapsed in 2008 crisis

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Stock-Markets

Friday, May 05, 2023

Current State of the Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Ray Kurzweil was WRONG the SINGULARITY is NOW!

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Stock-Markets

Friday, May 05, 2023

How "Insane Optimism" is at Work in the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: EWI

"Stock investors are so bullish that they are..."

Many technical indicators are highly useful, yet the price moves of the stock market really boil down to two things: optimism and pessimism.

Major trend turns tend to occur when extremes are reached in either optimism or pessimism.

Most recently, optimism has been in charge. The question is: Has an extreme been reached?

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, April 30, 2023

QE-Light Forestalls Crisis…For Now / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing

By: Michael_Pento

First Quarter GDP increased at only a 1.1% seasonally adjusted annual rate. That was down from 2.6% in Q4 of last year, which was down from 3.2% during Q3. Despite the clear slowdown in economic growth, there still exists a battle between Wall Street's soft-landing narrative, where inflation comes down in the context of robust growth. And the other, and more accurate scenario, where inflation falls because of a recession.

You just can't get the ROC of inflation and growth to increase when money supply growth plunges from 27% in 2021 to one that is contracting by 4%, as of the latest March data. 
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