Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, March 16, 2012
When to Buy Silver, the Metal of Emperors? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
This is a question that pops up in our mail box on a regular basis. The standard answer for the average retail buyer who has neither the time nor the inclination to do the hard yards, in terms of due diligence, is to layer-in your acquisitions via a rolling programme of purchases. This can be implemented regardless of the day to day 'white noise' that has many behaving as though they had spent the morning in a double shot Expresso Drinking Contest. Sell, Buy, Buy, Sell.... we all know that emotional white knuckle ride and it needs to be side lined. Try Chill, Relax, Relax and Chill for a day or two and switch to a herbal tea.
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Friday, March 16, 2012
Crude Oil and Natural Gas Bottoming? / Commodities / Crude Oil
If I totally was isolated from any news today, and all I had at my disposal was the enclosed 4-hr chart of nearby NYMEX Oil, the analysis argues that a correction from the March 1 high at 110.55 is at or nearly completed into this morning's low at 103.78.
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Thursday, March 15, 2012
Barron’s Gold Mining Index To Double Over The Next Couple Of Years? / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
The behaviour of gold stocks during this gold bull market is really not that different to the gold bull market of the 70s. It was not until almost the end of the bull market (in 1979) that the gold stocks really started to take-off. Those who think gold stocks will not rise during this bull market will be disappointed, and need to consider the evidence presented here.
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Thursday, March 15, 2012
Gold "Vulnerable" as U.S. Treasury Bond Market Sell-Off Worsens / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
The WHOLESALE-MARKET gold price twice rose within a few cents of $1650 per ounce in London Thursday morning, adding 0.9% from yesterday's fresh 8-week low as industrial commodities ticked lower again.
The price of silver bullion rallied 2.3% to $32.40 per ounce, but remained over 5% down for the week so far, being "very much influenced" by the gold price according to one Swiss precious-metals dealer.
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Thursday, March 15, 2012
South African Gold Production Dives To 90 Year Lows / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,646.75, EUR 1,262.26, and GBP 1,052.57 per ounce.
Yesterday's AM fix was USD 1,662.00, EUR 1,271.61 and GBP 1,057.93 per ounce.
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Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Stock Dividends Are Getting Physical Paid in Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
Gold often receives criticism from investors such as Warren Buffett for not producing a yield. This claim often falls on deaf ears because proven gold miners such as Newmont Mining Corp. and AngloGold Ashanti both pay a dividend north of 2 percent. However, the downside to these dividends is that they are paid in a fiat currency, somewhat defeating the intentions of gold investors. A new dividend program seeks to change this process by giving investors the choice to receive dividends in the form of physical bullion, instead of paper or electronic dollars.
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Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Gold Stairway to Heaven / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
It's now 6 months since gold hit its current all-time high. How long 'til the next...?
Thanks to hindsight, the bull market in gold which followed Richard Nixon unpegging the US Dollar, and therefore the rest of the world, from its last pretence of a Gold Standard sounds as inevitable today as Jimmy Page's solo in Stairway to Heaven, also a 1971 classic.
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Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Big-Picture Uptrend Still Intact for SLW, Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
Although Silver Wheaton (SLW) remains under bleeding pressure as we speak, my big picture work argues that a new bull phase for the stock has been in progress since the October 4 low, and that recent weakness from the Feb 29 high at 40.39 to today's low at 33.55 (so far) is the tail end of a pullback within the still-dominant uptrend pattern.
As long as SLW weakness is contained above 32.00, my work argues in favor of being long.
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Wednesday, March 14, 2012
What's Driving the Gold, Silver Prices? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
Gold rose to $1,700 last week and is holding that level in a very tight trading range.
The last few weeks have seen a larger consolidation pattern forming, pointing to a much bigger consolidating pattern that implies far more than just a short-term trading move just ahead of us. The forces that drive both supply and demand in the very short-term are just about in balance, so it is appropriate that we look at these forces to see how they influence gold prices in the short, medium, and long term.
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Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Rising fuel costs and the next Revolution / Commodities / Energy Resources
Lost amid the hoopla after the Dow recently achieved a milestone in closing above the psychologically important 13,000 barrier is another, more significant benchmark. Gasoline prices hit a record seasonal high this week. The average price of gasoline across the country is now $3.74, the highest it’s ever been at this time of year.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Uranium Mining Market Evolves / Commodities / Uranium
With the "Megatons to Megawatts" program scheduled to end soon, uranium market dynamics are shifting. Geordie Mark, a uranium analyst with Haywood Securities in Vancouver, explores the possibilities in this exclusive interview with The Energy Report, emphasizing the industry's strong long-term fundamentals.
The Energy Report: It's been nearly one year since the nuclear disaster in Fukushima, but there's not a lot of blowback from environmentalists or politicians. An index of uranium equities is up 46% from their bottom on Oct. 4, although it's still 50% underwater from a year ago. Has the Fukushima effect dissipated?
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Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Investor Opportunities in Clean Rare Earth Metals Mining / Commodities / Metals & Mining
Cleantech companies are exploring—and exploiting—the connections between many sectors of the energy, infrastructure and other industrial markets. Dallas Kachan, principal of cleantech research and consulting firm Kachan & Co. in Vancouver, points to the emergence of "clean" mining as an important investment theme for 2012. In this exclusive interview with The Critical Metals Report, Kachan shares some companies using green techniques to improve their bottom lines.
The Critical Metals Report: Dallas, can retail investors make money in the near-term in cleantech companies or should they be more focused on the long-term?
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Tuesday, March 13, 2012
HUI Stocks vs Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
In this article we will have a look at the performance of the HUI index (Amex Gold Bugs) compared to the performance of Gold.
First of all, here is a composition of the HUI index:
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
'The Gray Hairs and the Slick Hairs' (notes from PDAC) / Commodities / Metals & Mining
Marin Katusa, Casey Research writes: Many of Casey Research's editors and analysts spent last week in Toronto at the annual Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) convention. PDAC is one of the biggest resource conventions in the world – this year more than 30,000 people attended the show.
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Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Gold Buyers "On the Sidelines" Playing "Wait and See" Ahead of FOMC Announcement / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
SPOT MARKET gold prices drifted as low as $1694 per ounce Tuesday morning in London – 1.3% down on the week so far – while stocks and commodities rose slightly and US Treasuries dipped ahead of today's US Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
Silver prices fell to $33.43 per ounce – 2.5% down on last week's close – before, like gold, recovering some ground before lunchtime.
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Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Buy Gold Because a Currency Crisis is Coming / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,694.75, EUR 1,291.44, and GBP 1,082.63 per ounce.
Yesterday's AM fix was USD 1,705.25, EUR 1,299.93 and GBP 1,088.57 per ounce.
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Tuesday, March 13, 2012
The Need for Updated Gold Stock Indices / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
The underperformance of gold stocks was a hot topic at PDAC and continues to dominate discussion in industry circles. As to why the sector is underperforming, we hear numerous reasons. The conspiracy crowd will claim manipulation or hedge fund shorting. More well-reasoned thoughts include the struggle of large miners to adequately replace reserves and grow production and the continued issuance of shares. We believe one key reason is that the bull market is in the wall of worry phase and in this phase valuations compress as investors are nervous of among other things, another major correction. The HUI is trading at 15x trailing earnings and only 13x 2012 earnings. If the market returned to the historical average valuation of 28x earnings, then share prices would double (and that assumes present earnings). Yet, does the HUI or XAU even adequately represent the mining stock universe anymore?
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Tuesday, March 13, 2012
What Commodity Bubble? Gold, Silver, Rare Earth and Uranium Miners Rebound / Commodities / Metals & Mining
Far be it for Gold Stock Trades to indulge in hubris, nevertheless with all humility we not only saw this risk on rally forming in early October but reiterated on many occasions "be not dismayed by recent declines." "Commodities are not in a bubble." "Patience and Fortitude."
Recent action exemplifies the importance of not being trigger happy when it involves the commodity arena especially precious metals, uranium and rare earths. Volatility can daunt even the most resolute of investors.
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Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Are Investors Still Bullish on Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
According to Bloomberg, hedge funds decreased bets on higher commodity prices for the first time in seven weeks. This comes shortly after China cut its official economic growth forecast to 7.5 percent this year, the lowest since 2004. While money managers slashed bets on copper by the most in two months, demand for precious metals remains strong.
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Monday, March 12, 2012
Silver the Restless Metal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
Silver is a much smaller market than the gold market and quality research about the poor man’s gold can be less easy to find. One academic who does stand out though is the late Professor Roy Jastram, whose works on gold lead him to an investigation into silver’s monetary history and record. His book ‘Silver: the restless metal’ is much cited by silver experts like David Morgan, but being out of print is now not that easy to get hold of. The Amazon book markets in the US and UK were trading at >$140 when we looked, so we headed down to the British Library in London to get hold of a copy. Published in 1981, this book is a look at silver’s recorded monetary history with a forward look at what the future might hold for the silver price.
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