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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Wednesday, March 24, 2021

Commodities Comeback / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth, editor of Gold Resource Investor, examines the commodity supercycle and the role recency bias plays in investment decisions. Recency bias is a funny thing. It's human nature to expect the near future to look like the recent past.

But we all know that's not how things always play out.

And that can be costly, even dangerous, for investors.

Take long term bonds, for example. Ten-year Treasury yields have more than tripled, from 0.54% to 1.66% since last July. Does that mean the 40-year bond bull market is dead?

Tough to say, or course. We'll only know that for sure with hindsight. You know… recency bias.

If nothing else, the bond market is telling us price inflation is becoming a thing again, notwithstanding what the Fed might be telegraphing.

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Commodities

Tuesday, March 23, 2021

Nervous Fed to Give Precious Metals Markets a Boost / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

The Fed’s Open Markets Committee met last week and left policy unchanged – at least for the moment.

No one expected central banking officials to make rate adjustments last week with equity prices rubbing up against all-time highs and the economic recovery narrative still dominant.

Central bankers are likely getting nervous, however. Treasury yields are surging, and it is only a matter of time before stimulus addicted markets throw another tantrum.

In fact, the S&P 500 index fell after Wednesday’s announcement and each of the following two days.

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Commodities

Friday, March 19, 2021

Have the Ides of March Come for Silver? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold’s volatile little brother had an interesting run thus far, with internet forums buoying its price. But will fundamentals prevail? Where is silver headed?

“The Ides of March are come,” said Caesar. “Aye Caesar; but not gone,” replied the soothsayer. The Ides of March quotation is often bandied about in financial articles midway through the month. Caesar was assassinated on March 15 th in 44BC (or BCE), at a meeting of the Roman Senate. Written about by Plutarch and further popularized by Shakespeare (who dramatized the event), the day has been used as a harbinger of ill fortune. So, if we’re to look at silver, should we be concerned about anything at this time?

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Commodities

Friday, March 19, 2021

Gold Prices Then March 2020 and Now March 2021 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Kelsey_Williams

A year ago this past week marked the onset of the Covid-19 Pandemic. It also was the last full week of trading in the financial markets preceding crashes in all markets and a near-complete, albeit temporary, shutdown of economic activity.

Subsequent rebounds in stocks, bonds and real estate took valuations to levels as high  or higher (much higher for stocks and gold) than before the turbulence took hold. Some might refer to those valuations as nose-bleed levels, although the summit for peak ascension is always moving when the effects of inflation are factored in.

Gold had its day in the sun, too. After falling sympathetically with other markets, gold’s price began an aggressive climb of more than 40% in just four months time.

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Commodities

Friday, March 19, 2021

Celebrate the Return of the Gold Bull / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger considers how recent market moves have influenced investment in the precious metals markets. I had not intended to hit the keyboard today, having worked all week to prepare the Special Situations Report on my top-performing Norseman Silver Ltd. (NOC:TSX.V) (whose 65% year-to-date advance and 869% advance since the March 2020 lows has been a pleasant surprise), but Friday's COT (Commitments of Traders) report grabbed me by the throat and slammed me into the chair.

The bullion bank behemoths that manage gold prices in the Crimex futures pits are particularly adept at bullying, and unlike the schoolyard, where bulging biceps and menacing unibrows command fear and obedience, it is the bulging wallets that send the meek scurrying for cover. I have watched the COT over the years, and whereas I used to make all trading decisions from the COT numbers, that has tempered somewhat since the world went into "manic mode" with the arrival of that nasty flu bug a little over a year ago.

Had I let the actions of the bullion banks be the sole determinant of my trading decisions last March, the 375,000-contract net short position would have sent me screaming under the bed. Fortunately for me (and those that follow me), other inputs weighed in heavily and it was the weekend of March 14–15 of last year that I ignored the Commercials and went "all-in." As they say, the rest is history. The biggest rally in the miners in many years ensued and one of the best performance years since 2011 unfolded, and continues here in 2021.

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Commodities

Friday, March 19, 2021

ECB Accelerates Its Asset Purchases. Gold Needs Fed to Follow Suit / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The ECB accelerated its asset purchases, but unless the Fed follows suit, gold may continue its bearish trend.

On Thursday (Mar. 11), the European Central Bank decided to accelerate its asset buying under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program :

Based on a joint assessment of financing conditions and the inflation outlook, the Governing Council expects purchases under the PEPP over the next quarter to be conducted at a significantly higher pace than during the first months of this year.
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Commodities

Thursday, March 18, 2021

The 50th Anniversary of Nixon’s Colossal Gold Standard Error / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Richard_Mills

It seems fitting that the year we are expecting to see an unprecedented rise in US government spending and money-printing to spur an economic recovery, marks the 50th anniversary of the end of the gold standard.

Done at the time to fight an economic crisis, we are still feeling the effects of this disastrous decision, five decades on.

In this article, we explain why President Nixon did what he did, and why every promise that unshackling the US government from the requirement of maintaining the dollar’s value in terms of gold would mean for the United States, has been broken.

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Commodities

Wednesday, March 17, 2021

Gold and Stock Bulls Are Getting Ready / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Now that stocks closed at new all time highs, the correction is officially over. And what little rest stock bulls could claim last week, arrived on Friday. Yet, the bull is strong enough to defend the 3,900 zone, and charge higher the same day.

Who could be surprised, given the modern monetary theory ruling the economic landscape? The Fed amply accomodative, one $1.9T stimulus bill just in, and a $2T infrastructure one in the making. That‘s after the prior Trump stimulus, and who would have forgotten how it all started in April 2020? The old congressional saying „a billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you‘re talking real money“, needs updating.

Stocks are readying another upswing as the volatility index is approaching 20 again, and the put/call ratio shows complacent readings. The sectoral examination supports higher highs as tech has reversed intraday losses, closing half of the opening bearish gap. Value stocks naturally powered to new highs, with industrials, energy and financial performing best. Real estate keeps showing remarkable momentum, and has been among the best performers off correction‘s lows.

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Commodities

Wednesday, March 17, 2021

Copper Shortage Narrative Goes Mainstream / Commodities / Copper

By: Richard_Mills

Mainstream media and the large mining companies are finally catching on to what we at AOTH have been saying for the past two years: the copper market is heading for a severe supply shortage due to a perfect storm of under-exploration/ lack of discovery of new deposits, clashing with a huge increase in demand due to electrification and decarbonization.

Dramatic price rise

Copper is trading over $4.00 a pound this year on rapidly tightening physical markets, rebounding economic growth especially in China, the top metals consumer, and the expectation that the era of low inflation in key economies may soon be over. 

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Commodities

Tuesday, March 16, 2021

New York Markets Have Obliterated Silver Prices over Time / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

Many investors sense that the country, and the world, has drifted into uncharted territory.

The last year has been extraordinary. There have been COVID lockdowns, a disputed presidential election, and multi-trillion-dollar federal deficits and bailouts. The Federal Reserve has injected more money into markets than ever before.

This insanity showed up in the physical gold and silver markets.

Bullion dealers have spent much of the past year fighting to get inventory, because investment demand for coins, bars, and rounds has never been higher.

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Commodities

Tuesday, March 16, 2021

Is Dollar’s Weakness Giving Way to Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Since its peak in the spring of 2020, the U.S. dollar index has lost almost 12 percent, and it could decline even further, thus supporting gold prices.

There is a weakness in the U.S. dollar. Let’s start off by taking a look at the chart below. As you can see, the broad trade-weighted dollar index has been declining recently. Since its peak in late March 2020, the greenback has lost almost 12 percent.

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Commodities

Monday, March 15, 2021

How the EUR/USD Affects Gold Miners; Which ETF Will Suffer More? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

It’s all connected. The Eurozone’s underperformance boosts the USD, thus placing pressure on gold and the ETFs. So, which ETFs will suffer most?

A large part of yesterday’s free version of the analysis focused on the Eurozone’s economic outlook and how it affects the precious metals. We’ll eventually get to Europe again later in today’s analysis, but let’s first examine gold related ETFs, namely the GDX and GDXJ. How low can they go? That will depend on the general moves in the stock market.

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Commodities

Monday, March 15, 2021

Cotton, soybeans, crude oil: Simplicity wins / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: EWI

Dear Reader,

You come to our website looking for market answers.

Well, with the help of our friends at Elliott Wave International, we are happy to offer you a new, free opportunity to see what's likely next for cotton, soybeans and crude oil -- for the entire 2021.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Saturday, March 13, 2021

How to Join the Gold Mining Party… Before it Ends / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Forget gold and silver for a moment. Do you hear the music? Yes, it’s coming from the mining ETFs club. But how long will the party last?

And more importantly, why miners, you may ask? Because miners tend to outperform in the early days of a major rally.

After closing only $0.10 below my initial downside target of $31 on Mar. 1 , the GDX ETF could be ripe for an upward revision. Able to ignore much of last week’s chaos, the GDX ETF’s outperformance of gold and silver signals that the tide has likely turned.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Saturday, March 13, 2021

No More Rocking the Boat in Stocks But Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Submissions

Stocks sharply reversed intraday, and closed just where they opened the prior Friday. That indicates quite some pressures, quite some searching for direction in this correction that isn‘t over just yet. Stocks have had a great run over the past 4 months, getting a bit ahead of themselves in some aspects such as valuations. Then, grappling with the rising long-term rates did strike.

So did inflation fears, especially when looking at commodities. Inflation expectations are rising, but not galloping yet. What to make of the rising rates then? They‘re up for all the good reasons – the economy is growing strongly after the Q4 corona restrictions (I actually expect not the conservative 5% Q1 GDP growth, but over 8% at least) while inflation expectations are lagging behind.

In other words, the reflation (of economic growth) is working and hasn‘t turned into inflation (rising or roughly stable inflation expectations while the economy‘s growth is slowing down). We‘re more than a few quarters from that – I fully expect really biting inflation (supported by overheating in the job market) to be an 2022-3 affair. As regards S&P 500 sectors, would you really expect financials and energy do as greatly as they do if the prospects were darkening?

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Commodities

Friday, March 12, 2021

Oat Prices AND the Truth Behind the "White Gold" Rush / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities

By: EWI

Oat futures' recent surge to 7-year highs wasn't caused by the oat milk craze; think "market psychology" instead

Generally speaking, the idea of oats is about as exciting as, well, a bowl of steel cut oatmeal.

But this chart of oat futures shows why this ordinarily ordinary grain has stolen the commodity spotlight. For starters, February 2021 saw oat prices soar to their highest level in 7 years.

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Commodities

Friday, March 12, 2021

Magflation: An Unexpected Gold and Silver Driver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

During the 1970's, the U.S. experienced a decade of below-trend economic growth combined with rising interest rates – and eventually – massively higher gold and silver prices.

Some sectors boomed while others lagged, and then as now, the majority of the population struggled with rising home and commodity prices, bookmarked by lofty interest rates.

This stilted and challenging environment, which came to be called stagflation, eventually drove the more perceptive people into gold and silver.

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Commodities

Thursday, March 11, 2021

An Honest Look at Gold’s Chartolgy / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Rambus_Chartology

As you well know the PM complex has been trading at a very important inflection point for the last month or so looking for the next important move either up or down. I can make a case today for either direction but the Chartology is strongly suggesting the next important move is going to be to the downside. In the very short term, days to maybe a week or so we could see some backtesting to many important necklines that have already given way.

Lets start with a few important moving averages that in the past gave us our first warning that things could start to get a little rough. These aren’t big deals in and of themselves but they do throw up a little red flag that says, pay attention.

During the bull market years I used a ribbon of 4 different moving averages that when they became all properly aligned to the upside they told us that gold was very strong. The 300 day sma was the most important moving average for the long term health of gold. Throughout the bull market that began in 2000 until the high in 2011 the only time the 300 day sma was violated was during the 2008 crash.

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Commodities

Wednesday, March 10, 2021

Bond Yields Roil Markets, Gold/Silver Drop / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

As financial markets sold off this week, precious metals got dragged down in the selling. The culprit, once again, was rising bond yields.

On Thursday, the 10-year Treasury climbed above 1.5%. While still low on a historical range, the upside momentum has investors concerned. Over the past seven months, the 10-year yield has tripled from a low of just 52 basis points.

The 10-year note serves as a benchmark for mortgage rates as well as risk premiums in the equity markets. Elevated price-to-earnings ratios in the S&P 500 are more difficult to justify in a higher interest rate environment.

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Commodities

Wednesday, March 10, 2021

Real US Interest Rates and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Richard_Mills

Several factors influence gold prices (mainly the US dollar, gold ETF inflows/ outflows, inflation rate, bond yields, safe haven demand, physical gold demand, gold supply) but none is more reliable than real interest rates.

The demand for gold moves inversely to interest rates — the higher the rate of interest, the lower the demand for gold, the lower the rate of interest the higher the demand for gold.

The reason for this is simple, when real interest rates (interest rate minus inflation) are low, at, or below zero, cash and bonds fall out of favor because the real return is lower than inflation. If you are earning 1.6% on your money from a government bond, but inflation is running 2.7%, the real rate you are earning is negative 1.1% — an investor is actually losing purchasing power. Gold is the most proven investment to offer a return greater than inflation, by its rising price, or at least not a loss of purchasing power.

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