Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, January 05, 2018

Three Key Takeaways from December 2017 FOMC Minutes for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Yesterday, the minutes of the FOMC December meeting were released. What do they say about the Fed’s stance and what do they mean for the gold market?

The Fed Is Divided over Number of Hikes in 2018

At the December meeting, the U.S. central bank increased the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to a range 1.25-1.50 percent. The move was widely expected by investors, but there was no unanimity at the meeting as two FOMC members dissented. The Fed officials were also divided over the forecast of three rate hikes in 2018. The hawks noted that more hikes would be appropriate as financial conditions had not tightened since the Fed started raising rates at the end of 2015. On the other hand, the doves pointed out that too aggressive hiking might prevent a sustained return of inflation:

Friday, January 05, 2018

Don’t Look Now, but Gold Just Finished Its Best Year Since 2011 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Metals investors may have missed it given the gloomy sentiment that plagued markets for much of 2017, but gold just finished its best year since 2011.

Perhaps in a year like the one just passed, 13% gains are simply not inspiring. U.S. stocks finished about 25% higher for the year, and crypto-currencies including Bitcoin left all other asset classes in the dust. Bitcoin gained roughly 1,400%.

Thursday, January 04, 2018

The GOLD OIL Ratio / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Gary_Savage

The gold:oil ratio has been trending in favor of oil for a number of months. I look for this trend to reverse soon in favor of gold.

Thursday, January 04, 2018

Palladium Price Surge To New All Time High Over $1,100/oz On Supply Crunch Concerns / Commodities / Palladium

By: GoldCore

– Palladium prices surge to new record high over $1,100/oz today
– Palladium surges past record nominal price seen in 2001 after 55% surge in 2017
– Best-performing precious metal and commodity of 2017 is palladium
– Palladium prices top platinum prices for first time in 16 years
– Strong Chinese car demand and switch from diesel to petrol cars sees demand surge
– Supply crunch as six year supply deficit & 2017 deficit expected to hit 83,000 ounces
– Palladium supply crunch to intensify if world’s leading producer Russia restricts supply and investors diversify into tiny palladium bullion market

Thursday, January 04, 2018

Chartology of the Canadian Venture Composite Index $CDNX / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight I would like to start out by looking at the $CDNX, Canadian Venture Composite Index, which blasted higher last week and is following through this week. The reason this index is so important is because it not only has many junior precious metals stocks, but also many small cap energy related stocks as well as other speculative venture capital stocks from other sectors. This is a very good sign for the overall stock markets and commodities in general, as it shows risk capital is finding a home in which to park. This is another important clue that there is no top in the stock markets yet, because the risk on trade is still healthy.

Thursday, January 04, 2018

“Strength” in the Gold Miners? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold moved visibly higher during the first session of the year and this time mining stocks accompanied it. In fact, it seems that they are back on the track after a short pause. What’s the likely reason behind this year’s rally and what does it imply going forward?

Let’s jump right into the mining stock charts (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Wednesday, January 03, 2018

Gold Price Best Year Since 2010, Up 14%, 2018: Year of the Phoenix? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: GoldCore

Gold Bullion Prices Have Best Year Since 2010 With Near 14% Gain In 2017

– Gold posted second straight annual gain in USD in 2017
– Gold in 2017: up 13.6% USD, up 2.7% GBP, down 1.4% EUR
– 2017 is gold’s best year since 29.5% gain in 2010
– Strong performance despite rate hikes and stock bubble 
– India’s gold imports surged 67% in 2017, Turkish, Chinese demand strong
– Gold finished 2017 with longest rally since June 2016
– 2018: Currency War and The Year of the Phoenix?

Wednesday, January 03, 2018

Five Reasons Gold Stocks Will Breakout in 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

There are very few sellers left

There were very few sellers left in January 2016 when the devastating “forever bear” was about to end. Six months later and a 150% rebound in the large caps and 200% rise in the juniors (GDXJ) provided sellers an opportunity. They drove the miners and juniors down by 40% to 45% in less than five months. However, both GDX and GDXJ have been able to hold above that low multiple times. GDX has held $21 four times! GDXJ has held $29.50 twice in solid fashion.

Wednesday, January 03, 2018

Precious Metals Sector is on Major Buy Signal 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest movements in the gold and silver markets, noting buy signals for both gold and silver at the close of 2017.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is up.

Wednesday, January 03, 2018

Gold Market Themes for 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

2018 has just begun. What will a new year bring for the gold market?

Macroeconomic Outlook Will Remain Unpleasant

The current economic expansion is surprisingly durable, as it has already lasted more than 100 months. It worries many investors who are afraid of the upcoming recessions. Surely, there are many reasons to worry, and the recession will eventually come. But we are not at this point yet. The current expansion is unusually long, but it is exceptionally sluggish.

Tuesday, January 02, 2018

Copper Outlook at Critical Juncture and Implications for the Silver Price / Commodities / Copper

By: Metals_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund delves into the reasons behind copper's recent rise and what that could mean for silver.

We have seen an unusually steady uptrend in copper this month that has resulted in it appreciating by about 10%, which might not sound like much, but makes a big difference if you are a producer with fixed costs. What is remarkable about this uptrend is not only that it came hard on the heels of a high volume smackdown in the early days of the month that at the time looked bearish, but that we have seen 16 days trading days in a row of higher closes as of the close of trading on Thursday, as can be seen on the 3-month chart for copper shown below. After doing some extensive research it has been discovered that the fundamental reason for this day after day seemingly interminable uptrend was that a prominent Chinese buyer, who has an old fashioned way of doing things, was walking over to the London Metals Exchange every day for weeks with his black briefcase in hand and buying roughly the same amount of copper.

Tuesday, January 02, 2018

Gold, Silver Predictions 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Michael_J_Kosares

A major shift in sentiment will drive prices in the new year

With such a solid end to 2017, it prompts the question what we might expect of gold in 2018. The most immediate question is whether or not it will pick up where it left off 2017 and continue its climb into the New Year, or fizzle and spend the year going sideways or worse, down. I have refrained from the perennial turn of the year prediction sweepstakes for a number years, but I will venture out on the limb this year to say a price in the mid-$1500s looks achievable in 2018.

Monday, January 01, 2018

Longer Cycles for Gold and the US Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: SurfCity

By now you know that my swing trading approach is to focus on the 5-6 Month Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) to establish positions. It seem’s that everything that I track has the 5-6 month low to low cycle. Sometimes the ICLs come sooner at 4 months or later at 7+ months but the average is 5-6 months.

Everything also has a Yearly Cycle Low (YCL) which is nothing more than two 5-6 mont ICLs. Cycles longer than one year, however, vary by asset. The USD and Bonds have a 3 Year Cycle low to low and Stocks have a 7 Year Cycle low to low. Gold’s longer Cycles include a 4 Year Cycle and an 8 Year Cycle, which is simply two 4 Year Cycles back to back. Remember that longer cycles typically dominate shorter ones, meaning that if the longer cycle is in a bullish phase, most of its 5-6 month Intermediate Cycles will be right translated in terms of Time while making a higher high and a higher low (i.e. stair stepping up so to speak).

Monday, January 01, 2018

Gold Achieves $1375 Target 20167, $1500 Expected for 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Bullish commodity traders and investors in the likes of oil and gold also saw strong positive returns for the year as Oil ended at its high for the year of $60 and Gold at $1310 both inline with my bullish expectations for these commodities for 2017.

Monday, January 01, 2018

Crude Oil Achieves $60 Forecast Expectations for 2017, $80 Next? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Bullish commodity traders and investors in the likes of oil and gold also saw strong positive returns for the year as Oil ended at its high for the year of $60 and Gold at $1310 both inline with my bullish expectations for these commodities for 2017.

Sunday, December 31, 2017

Commodities, CRB, Oil & Gas, Gold, Silver... Markets Big Picture Update / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Gary_Tanashian

Some monthly charts of interest in the commodity sector, including precious metals.

CRB Index dwells below key resistance. A break of 200 would target around 250 in 2018.

Sunday, December 31, 2017

The End of the World as We Know It - Gold Safe Haven / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Richard_Mills

Imaginations of the Misguided 

It’s Christmas 2017 and North Korean Dear Leader Kim Jong-un is facing a crisis. Recently the United States, with UN approval, imposed the harshest round of economic sanctions yet on his reclusive regime.

While North Korea has been sanctioned since 2006 due to continuing attempts to develop nuclear weapons, this new provocation by its sworn nemesis is the last straw for Kim, who feels the great legacies of his father and grandfather, Kim Jong-il and Kim Il-sung, weighing more heavily each day.

Saturday, December 30, 2017

Four Things We Learned About Gold in 2017 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

2017 is almost over. What did we learn about gold during this time?

Gold May Prosper in Good Times

First, gold may shine in unpleasant macroeconomic outlook. Generally, gold performs the best during economic slowdown or turmoil. In 2017, the economic conditions were far from recessionary climate. Global economic growth accelerated and became more synchronized among countries. The U.S. economy performed well, the unemployment rate achieved a record low, while inflation remained subdued. The Fed hiked interest rates three times, while the Republicans managed to pass a tax bill. And the U.S. stock market continued its rally, while the cryptocurrencies experienced a parabolic rise at the end of a year. Does it look like a supporting environment for gold? Not really. However, the price of the yellow metal has risen more than 12 percent in 2017, as one can see in the chart below. Perhaps it’s not very impressive, but not bad given the macroeconomic environment. And much better than a savings account or Treasuries.

Friday, December 29, 2017

Gold GDX ETF From One Inflection Point To Another / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: Avi_Gilburt

First published on Sunday Dec 24 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: Ever since we broke down below the upper support region back in early September, and invalidated an immediate break-out set up, we have been looking for the GDX to test the 21 region. It was a point of support which could complete the larger degree wave ii, and begin the long-awaited start to a major 3rd wave rally. And, if it broke, it opened the door to the 17-19 region for a larger degree wave ii bottom.

Friday, December 29, 2017

Gold: This Might Hurt / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The gold volatility index moved to a new all-time low and there was no meaningful action in gold recently. Well, we profited on the decline and on the following upswing, but the price action that we saw was nothing to call home about. For months, gold has been moving around the $1,300 level and it’s trading relatively close to it also today. But, will this action persist for much longer? Not likely. It seems that something is about to hit the fan.

Before this week, there were many signs pointing to lower prices of precious metals in the following weeks, but not necessarily in the following days. This week, we are finally seeing the bearish short-term confirmations. We discussed them yesterday and in today’s analysis, we provide a big update.