Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Saturday, October 29, 2016

A Loaf of Bread, A Gallon of Gas, An Ounce of Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Submissions

Kelsey Williams writes: The average cost for a loaf of bread in 1930 was ten cents ($.10). The average cost for a gallon of gasoline was also ten cents. With gold priced in U.S. dollars at $20.00 to the ounce, you could at that time purchase two hundred loaves of bread or two hundred gallons of gasoline (or some combination thereof). Twenty dollars of paper currency OR one ounce of gold valued at $20.00, usually in the form of a U.S. Double Eagle ($20.00 gold coin, legal tender), were equal in “purchasing power”.

Saturday, October 29, 2016

Negative Divergence in Gold Stocks Bodes for Lower Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

You have heard it before from us and probably elsewhere. The miners lead Gold. We have seen this every major turn dating back 16 years and it can also be the case with respect to short and medium term trends. While the precious metals sector has rallied over the past few weeks, the rally has been weak and the gold stocks relative weakness in recent days bodes negatively for the sector.

Friday, October 28, 2016

Gold Stocks Winter Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have certainly had a wild ride this year.  After initially skyrocketing out of deep secular lows into a mighty new bull market, they recently suffered a massive correction climaxing in an extreme plummet.  This coincided with gold stocks’ major seasonal low in October.  That heralds their strongest seasonal rally of the year heading into and through winter, a very bullish omen for coming months.

Gold-stock performance is highly seasonal, which certainly sounds odd.  The gold miners produce and sell their metal at relatively-constant rates year-round, so the temporal journey through calendar months should be irrelevant.  Based on these miners’ revenues, there’s no reason investors should favor them more at certain times of the year than others.  Yet history proves that’s exactly what happens in this sector.

Friday, October 28, 2016

What's Next for Crude Oil; Higher Prices or Crash / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Sol_Palha

"If the doors of perception were cleansed everything would appear to man as it is, infinite. For man has closed himself up, till he sees all things thru chinks of his cavern." ~ William Blake

2016 started with all the Drs of Gloom stating that oil was heading lower and many even predicted that it would trade down to $10.00. It was kind of interesting to watch this circus as there is a saying the cure for low prices is usually low prices. It would have made sense to take a firm stance against oil when it was trading above $100, but not when it was trading in the $30.00 ranges. These same experts were busy proclaiming higher prices when oil was trading north of $100.00. Only when oil was close to putting in a bottom, did they muster the courage to issue even lower prices; they would have been well served by simply keeping quiet. Experts were all trying to outdo each other; each one is releasing lower prices and a gloomier scenario. Here are some examples of the stories being put out at the time:

Friday, October 28, 2016

Jim Rickards: Trump “Will Probably Win” and Gold “May Rise $100” Overnight / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

The US election is just two weeks away on November 8th, and one of Hillary Clinton’s most vocal critics on the business side is finance commentator and monetary expert Jim Rickards. Jim is in Sydney this week, armed with his latest book, hot off the press entitled ‘The Road to Ruin – The Global Elites’ Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis’ and gave an interesting television interview to ‘The Business’ on ABC Australia.

Rickards says that Trump “will probably win” and, if he does, stock markets will crash 10% and gold will rise $100 over night.

Friday, October 28, 2016

How Could Shift in Monetary Regime Affect the Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Some economists, including San Francisco Fed President John Williams, have recently suggested raising the FOMC’s 2-percent inflation objective or implementing monetary policy through alternative frameworks, such as price-level or nominal GDP targeting. It is not a mere academic debate, as the Bank of Japan increased its inflation target in a sense, as it committed “itself to expanding the monetary base until the year-on-year rate of increase in the observed consumer price index (CPI) exceeds the price stability target of two percent and stays above the target in a stable manner”. What are these frameworks and how could they, if implemented in the U.S., affect the gold market?

Friday, October 28, 2016

How Big Is Your Gold and Silver Picture? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: MoneyMetals

Whether you surf the Internet for information about the precious metals and mining stocks or receive newsletters by snail mail, you're exposed to predictions by all and sundry:

• How high will prices go?
  
• How long will it take?
  
• Will they remain elevated if/when they reach record nominal and/or inflation-adjusted highs?

Friday, October 28, 2016

Gold and Silver Connecting the Dots / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The USD Index confirmed the breakout above March highs, silver outperformed temporarily, miners underperformed and... Despite this bearish combination, precious metals didn't decline. Why wasn't that the case? Will they still slide or will they rally from here? Let's take a closer look at the charts and find out (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Thursday, October 27, 2016

Gold Chart of the Day / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Gary_Savage

The first retest of the 200 DMA is the second best buying opportunity in a new bull market.

Thursday, October 27, 2016

This Is What Gold Does In A Currency Crisis, Brexit Edition / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: John_Rubino

In June the UK shocked the world – or at least the world’s elites – by voting to pull out of the European Union. Economists predicted disaster, EU leaders threatened pain for British exporters and tourists, and the media settled in to watch the UK shrivel and die.

Four months later, the appropriate response is a yawn rather than a scream.

Thursday, October 27, 2016

“Chindia” Buying Gold on Dips, 20% Corrections Are “Non Events” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason (Money Metals Exchange):

Frank, it's good to have you back on. Congratulations on another well-deserved award and thanks for joining us again today.

Frank Holmes (U.S. Global Investors):

Well, thank you for that recognition, but I want to make sure that your listeners know that portfolio manager Ralph Aldis is also key in that whole thought process and director of research and oversees the gold funds with myself. He's a geologist. He has a master’s in mineral economics, a master’s in geology. I like to tease him he has more degrees than a thermometer.

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Silver Prices in an Exponential Financial System / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: DeviantInvestor

Our financial systems create exponential increases in:

1. Debt
2. Prices for stocks
3. Prices for commodities
4. Currency in circulation
5. Prices for gold and silver

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Cycle of Low Crude Prices Nearing an End, Says Saudi Oil Minister / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: The_Energy_Report

Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih declared the cycle of low crude prices is nearing an end as the oil market strengthens in recent weeks.

"Market fundamentals, in terms of supply and demand, have begun to improve," Falih stated on Sunday at a press conference with Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, adding: "We are optimistic that oil prices will continue to improve in the future."

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Diamonds in the Gold and Silver Mining Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Rambus_Chartology

Back in September we looked at a possible morphing Diamond on the GDXJ in which the dashed trendlines were showing the original Diamond. When it started to morph into the bigger Diamond I added the two red circles that showed the false breakouts from the original dashed Diamond. As you can see the last two weeks produced a rally that so far has failed below the apex of the morphing Diamond. From a Chartology perspective the Diamond is a reversal pattern as it has five reversal points.

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Where Will Crude Oil Price Head Next? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $53.22 and initial price target at $46) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Friday, crude oil gained 0.43% after Russia renewed its commitment to joining a producers' output freeze. Thanks to this news, light crude bounced off session’s lows and closed the week slightly below $51. But did this move change anything in the overall picture of the commodity?

Monday, October 24, 2016

This Past Week in Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts recent movements in the gold and silver markets. With COT data showing signs of a bottom, Chan is waiting for price action to confirm.

Monday, October 24, 2016

Can Gold Continue To Rise, Since The Usd Is Moving Higher Too? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Robert_Alexander

That question and other ones similar to it keep coming up lately and understandably so.  Gold usually drops when the USD rises, but lately we do see both rising at the same time. I called a low in Gold recently and have been trading in the Precious Metals sector, but some are having a hard time believing it when they see the USD rising too.  Allow me to share my thoughts on this. The following 4 charts are from the weekend report, where I tried to help my readers see the answer that question.

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Will a Rising US Dollar Crush Gold’s Fledgling Bull? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold and gold stocks have stabilized after forming a short-term low and even held up well while the US$ index pushed to an 8-month high. Conventional wisdom would tell us with the US$ index nearing a major breakout, Gold and gold stocks would be vulnerable to further losses. However, many astute analysts and traders believe that Gold and the US$ index can rise together and we note that the trend in the US$ index while important, is not the primary driver of Gold. Ultimately, as long as Gold’s fundamental driver, declining or negative real rates remain in place, then the fledgling bull market will remain on track.

Saturday, October 22, 2016

GLD Bleeds Out; Weekly Gold Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Dan_Norcini

The one factor that gold bulls have had going in their favor during the recent selloff that occurred in gold and the gold mining shares in this month of October, has been the stellar performance of the reported holdings in the gigantic gold ETF, GLD. It has held rock steady in spite of the carnage witnessed, especially in the mining shares, even as the US Dollar has turned strongly bullish on the technical price charts. It has been a point of solace among the bulls to be able to see the resolve of some of their large sponsors holding firm in GLD.

Friday, October 21, 2016

The Final Bottom in Gold - WHEN / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The big decline in the precious metals appears to already be underway (even though we are in a short-term corrective upswing) and it seems that gold will move much lower in the coming months even though it’s likely to move higher in the coming days. The big decline remains to be the most important development for gold and silver investors. Why? Because this decline’s end is likely to present the ultimate buying opportunity for precious metals and for mining stocks.