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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Crude Oil and the War Cycle 2015 and Beyond / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Clif_Droke

This year witnessed the bottom of one of several components of the 120-year cycle of inflation and deflation. The cycle to which I'm referring is the 24-year cycle. Of particular relevance is that this cycle answers to the cycle of war.

Since 1894 when the previous 120-year Grand Super Cycle bottomed and a new one began, there have been four military conflagrations at each subsequent bottom of the 24-year cycle. Most of these wars have been major in scope. The first such instance of war occurred in the years leading up to 1918, which saw the first 24-year cycle bottom of the current 120-year cycle. The 24-year cycle that bottomed that year saw the ending to the First World War. Remembering that the final "hard down" phase of the 24-year cycle approximates to almost two-and-a-half years, this represented roughly the second half of that major war, a war that involved the United States.

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 09, 2014

Gold, Oil, Copper... Commodities Breakdown / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Harry_Dent

I have been commenting on how the CRB commodity index – including oil, gold and copper – have been trading in a sideways pattern for the past three years and that at some point they would break down.

The break down just happened. Oil broke below support at $75 to $80, copper broke below $2.90 to $3, gold broke below $1,180 and the CRB broke below $270.

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 09, 2014

7 Questions Gold Bears Must Answer / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Jeff_Clark

A glance at any gold price chart reveals the severity of the bear mauling it has endured over the last three years.>

More alarming, even for die-hard gold investors, is that some of the fundamental drivers that would normally push gold higher, like a weak US dollar, have reversed.

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 09, 2014

Crude Oil Price Sinking Or Rebounding / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Friday, crude oil lost 1.65% as a stronger U.S. dollar and news that Saudi Arabia lowered the price of oil for buyers in the U.S. and Asia continued to weight. As a result, light crude moved lower for the fourth time in a row and closed the week at its lowest level since mid-Jul 2009.

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Commodities

Monday, December 08, 2014

Why Wall Street and Governments Hate Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Michael_Pento

Gold is hated more than ever by both governments and the financial services community. This is because it has now become imperative to keep the illusion of confidence in sovereign debt and paper currencies. To that end, a gentleman by the name of Willem Buiter, Citigroup's chief economist, shot into the media spotlight by writing a note on the day before Thanksgiving stating his belief that gold is in a six thousand year-old bubble.

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Commodities

Monday, December 08, 2014

Agri-Equities: New All Time High / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

China now surpasses the U.S. in real economic terms. "Real", most simply defined, is the production and consumption of actual goods and services with prices ignored. In that "real" process the Chinese economy becomes a receptacle for the resources of the world, tangible and human. Some in the world, like Agri-Equities, that service those needs have benefitted, and will certainly do so in the future. Those that sell to the biggest customers in the world, China, will be the success stories. Top tier Agri-Equities are one of those beneficiaries. Our index of First Tier Agri-Equities, as shown in chart below, is at a new, all time high for the second month. That action was recently confirmed by composite Agri-Equity Index also hitting a new all time high recently.

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Commodities

Saturday, December 06, 2014

Gold-Backed Currency? Not Any Time Soon, But Be Prepared / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Michael_Noonan

Last year, many in 2013 were calling for the price of gold and silver to double, and more! Then came 2014 and those dashed hopes were pushed back to the second half of 2014. Earlier, in the first half of the year, we said that the second half could likely be more of the same, as in 2013, [See 2014 Could Be A Yawner]. With just a few weeks away from the end of the year, prospects for 2015 can equally be brought into question re PM price appreciation.

Is the petrodollar on the way out? More frequently, the signs say yes. Is a gold-backed currency standard waiting to replace it? Beliefs, at least in the PM community, remain high, but facts to substantiate the beliefs are hard to find. Sure, China and Russia have been and continue to be the largest buyers of physical gold, but is either the Renminbe or the Ruble ready for Prime Time? The short answer is no, and more emphatically for the Ruble. While the Renminbe is becoming more widely viewed as a potential replacement for the "dollar," China has nowhere near the capability of a world reserve currency system and all that it entails.

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Commodities

Saturday, December 06, 2014

Opecology Or The Art Of Saying Nothing / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

The Threat of $57 Oil
The recent head of the World Petroleum Council, Renato Bertani speaking from Houston in interview with Russia Today TV, December 1st,  was set an increasingly ridiculous set of questions by the energetic if dumb interviewer lady in the Moscow bureau. She asked him if Peak Oil was true and if ISIS or ISIL was pricing its stolen oil (she said $30 a barrel) at the “right price”? Would oil get really cheap before it disappeared (not cheap after it disappeared)? Is fracking sustainable and are US producers lying when they say $57 a barrel is a price they can live with? Will hydrogen-fueled cars wipe out world oil demand? Would global warming terrify us so much we woke up one day and totally renounced oil? How will OPEC stabilize and control the market and set the right oil price for everybody (she didn't suggest we ask Goldman Sachs how they do it). Time for a sucker's rally!

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Commodities

Saturday, December 06, 2014

Crude Oil Price Slump: 7% Hit for Global Hotel Stock Prices and 25% Hit for Dubai Hotel Revenues Is Predicted / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_Butter

There is an increasing adjustment to the idea that the “totally unexpected” slump in oil prices to below $70 may prevail for some time.

The model that predicted since 2011 Brent would, at some point, bottom at $67 which is just 3% below where it reached yesterday (not bad for a prediction made three years ago)... says the slump will last four years.

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Commodities

Saturday, December 06, 2014

Global Crude Oil Consumption - What Countries Have Increased or Decreased Usage Since 2009? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Mike_Shedlock

Reader David Epperson sent in some interesting charts on global oil usage that he produced from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. The data is through the end of 2013.

David writes...

Hello Mish,

I was curious how much oil consumption had declined over the last few years, so I went to the EIA web site, downloaded the consumption data and produced the following charts.

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Commodities

Friday, December 05, 2014

Russia and China’s Natural Gas Deals Are a Death Knell for Canada’s LNG Ambitions / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Marin_Katusa

In recent years, a number of Asian companies have been betting that Canada will be able to export cheap liquefied natural gas (LNG) from its west coast. These big international players include PetroChina, Mitsubishi, CNOOC, and, until December 3, Malaysian state-owned Petronas.

However, that initial interest is decidedly on the wane. In fact, while the British Columbia LNG Alliance is still hopeful that some of the 18 LNG projects that have been proposed will be realized, it’s now looking less and less likely that any of these Canadian LNG consortia will ever make a final investment decision to forge ahead.

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Commodities

Friday, December 05, 2014

Gold Shorting Exhaustion / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold’s been on an incredible roller-coaster ride over the past couple months, whipsawing like crazy.  And contrary to popular rationalizations, these swings had absolutely nothing to do with fundamentals.  Their sole driver has been American speculators’ extreme shorting of gold futures, which has battered gold’s price around in the absence of investment demand.  But this epic gold shorting looks exhausted.

The core mission of all trading, whether long-term investing or rapid-fire speculation, is buying low and selling high.  That’s the only way to multiply wealth in the financial markets.  Short sellers execute this same strategy, but reverse the order.  They borrow assets they don’t own, sell them presumably high, and later hopefully buy them back low to repay their debts.  The key to shorting is selling high, not selling low.

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Commodities

Friday, December 05, 2014

Why OPEC Will Tolerate Cheap Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: John_Browne

Despite falling oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) voted on November 27th not to cut production in order to boost prices. The key to this decision appears to have been the attitude of Saudi Arabia, which has long been the first among equals in the coalition. Not surprisingly, the decision led to further oil price declines, and led many observers to conclude that OPEC has largely lost the ability to upwardly influence the price of petroleum. But this determination ignores the wider geopolitical considerations that may be convincing Saudi Arabia to be perfectly content, for now, with lower prices.

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Commodities

Friday, December 05, 2014

Gold Price Post Referendum Bounce / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Alasdair_Macleod

It turns out the Swiss referendum last weekend which sought to force the Swiss National Bank to maintain 20% gold reserves was a red herring so far as precious metal markets are concerned. It was fairly obvious before the referendum that no sensible trader would had bought gold in the expectation it would go through, so there would be few short-term sellers afterwards. Equally, it was so obvious to traders the referendum would fail that there may have been some short-sellers, or perhaps deferred buying waiting for the event to pass.

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Commodities

Friday, December 05, 2014

Commodities and the U.S. Dollar / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Each commodity market has its own story to tell: oil prices are falling because OPEC can’t agree production cuts, steel faces a glut from overcapacity, and even the price of maize has fallen, presumably because of good harvests.

In local currencies this is not so much the case. Of course, the difference between prices in local currencies and prices in US dollars is reflected in the weakness of most currencies against the dollar in the foreign exchange markets. This tells us that whatever is happening in each individual commodity and in each individual currency the common factor is the US dollar.

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Commodities

Friday, December 05, 2014

ECB Draghi’s QE Battle With Germany; Rules Out ECB Gold Buying / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: GoldCore

The European Central Bank will decide early next year whether to follow the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and the Bank of Japan with quantitative easing or money creation to buy government bonds and other assets but will not buy gold, its president Mario Draghi said yesterday.

Speaking in the ECB's new 1.3 billion euro headquarters, an imposing Frankfurt skyscraper designed to show the strength of the ‘single’ currency, Draghi threw down the gauntlet to Germany and signaled that he would not allow opposition from Germany or anyone else to stop the ECB’s QE.

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Commodities

Friday, December 05, 2014

The Precious Metals Guarantee / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

A friend recently sent me a picture of a 1957 $1 silver certificate he found in his change while buying a cup of coffee. He’d been a coin collector as a kid and learned that his father carried nearly the same note in his wallet.

When I brought up Gresham’s law and the recent news that U.S. public and private debt had just breached the $18 trillion mark, it made very little impression, other than a brief pause in thought, though barely recognition. 

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Commodities

Friday, December 05, 2014

Gold Market Manipulation, US Resorts to Illegality to Protect Failed Financial Policies / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Paul_Craig_Roberts

In a blatant and massive market intervention, the price of gold was smashed on Friday. Right after the Comex opened on Friday morning 7,008 paper gold contracts representing 20 tonnes of gold were dumped in the New York Comex futures market at 8:50 a.m. EST. At 12:35 a.m. EST 10,324 contracts representing 30 tonnes of gold were dropped on the Comex futures market:

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Commodities

Friday, December 05, 2014

39 cent Gasoline, Man that is GREAT ! A Cautionary Tale / Commodities / Gas - Petrol

By: Submissions

Nicholas Migliaccio writes:  It was sad at today's Update Webinar to hear these esteemed TA market guys falling all over themselves, whistling past the graveyard so they didn't have to call what the markets were doing as Rolling over in to a DownTrend.

                 OMG, did I let that Awful world DOWNTREND see daylight.......?      Oh NO !   Sad, these guys are SO mainstream paradigm that you could hear them tremble.   Damn shame, another place, another time, you'd pub up with them for a beer.  Now however they are just apologists trying to save their salaries.  Investors don't buy their services when they are not outright bullish.  I mean I cannot even get educated astute business people to execute a Sell STOP after their Limit gets violated, that is how brain-washed people are.

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Commodities

Friday, December 05, 2014

US's Debt Not Such a Big Deal - Mr. Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Gary_Tanashian

Mr. Gold's last paragraph is the tell on his bias, as he is unwilling or unable to conceal the contempt he has for people who were absolutely right for 10 years+ and are now suffering a bear market, both to their asset of choice and in sound monetary thinking.

"The vastly improved fiscal situation may last only a few years, but it's a big plus for U.S. markets and the U.S. dollar -- and another nail in the coffin for the gold bugs and doom-and-gloomers who can add one more item to the long list of things they got really, really wrong."

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